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Richard Carrier - Bayesian Reasoning - AI Futurism - Utilitarianism

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Published on Sep 18, 2013

Ten Years to the Robot Apocalypse (cites Richard's technical work in moral theory, it's application to AI, and Richard's thoughts about AI futurism): http://freethoughtblogs.com/carrier/a...

Richard's debate with McKay over desire utilitarianism: http://richardcarrier.blogspot.com/20...

Richard's Amazon store: http://astore.amazon.com/supportcarri...


Things people get wrong when I try to explain Bayes' Theorem, and a notable example is the two errors of philosopher Louise Antony in a Q&A, which I've heard from others, blogged about it: http://freethoughtblogs.com/carrier/a...

All of Richard's blogging about Bayes' Theorem: http://freethoughtblogs.com/carrier/a...


Historicity of Jesus: Aviezer Tucker getting there before Richard: http://freethoughtblogs.com/carrier/a...

The Machine Intelligence Research Institute: http://intelligence.org

Richard Carrier has is a well known atheist and FF blogger who has tackled some of the more challenging questions beyond does god exist, is homeopathy useful etc - using bayesian theory to determine confidence levels about history (esp historicity of jesus). A very interesting topic indeed.
Though Richard has some interest in the future too - and has just the tools to help in asking the right questions about it.... The Singularity Are we Doomed: http://lesswrong.com/lw/8pf/richard_c...
http://richardcarrier.blogspot.com.au...

Discussion / Risks about AI: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/...


== Bayesian Reasoning ==
1. Evidence expected even if H is false is not evidence for H
2. The more improbable the evidence is on any other explanation than H, the more probable it makes H
3. The more typically explanations like H turn out to be true, the more evidence you need against H to conclude it's false
4. The more typically explanations like H turn out to be false, the more evidence you need for H to conclude it's true
5. "More evidence" always means "evidence that's more improbable on any other explanation" - kind of like point 2 2013 09 19 08 23 40

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