 The following is a presentation of TFNN The Traders Edge with Steve Rhodes Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 The Traders Edge Now Steve Rhodes Good day folks. Welcome to the July 1st the fantastic Friday edition of today's Traders Edge show I'm your host Stevie Perseverance Rhodes who absolutely knows that each of us should always be pioneers of our future versus prisoners of our past Hope everyone out there is having a great day Hey, let's make sure we have an extraordinary one and the easiest way to do that It's to always remember that life is happening for us not to us That's right when you and I make that one little two-by-four shift It means we can find the gift in every set of circumstance that life is gonna toss at us now today You and I we're gonna go check on the circumstance of these markets We're gonna go figure out what those bowls and bears what those buyers and sellers are communicating to you and I just past eight O'clock in the morning That's right If you are listening live the normal time slot between one and two will make today's show as pertinent as we can't for you But if you are listening live between eight and nine eastern standard time wasting a daylight time out there We would love to hear from you so you can give us call 877-927-6648 If you can't call in you're listening in but you'd like a question answered the stock position whatever might be You can always send me an email send that to Steve at tfn.com Inside the subject heading please put radio show question and of course our tigers them will any and every ping will do So let's go ahead and get this show started on a fantastic Friday. Of course. This is tiger financial news network I'm Steve Rhodes Welcome to La show right now. We got us equity futures pointed to the downside dows off 123 points NASDAQ 66 S&P down 16 You mean the Russell's off about nine points It's about a half a percent for each of these indices out here gold is getting schnockered. It's down 19 bucks Silver's even worse. It's down 79 pennies. That's up nearly 4% Platinum is down 36 bucks palladiums off 41 bucks coppers down 11 pennies That's 3% natural gas is trade the upside 40 cents to the upsides up by seven and a half percent late to be crude trade out At 108 64 that's up nearly 3% as well. The 30-year treasury up by half a point trade at 118 118 I take that back 30 your treasury is up for ticks. She's trading out at 138 24 So what does all that mean or what are the markets doing right now? Let's kind of cut to the chase here, right? And then we'll go back and we'll take a look at what all the other instruments are doing So cut to the chase here where you go to what I believe for today is the most important and compelling Chart and that is coming from our 30-minute time frame So what you should be able to see on your screen right now are the 30-minute charts for the ESC NQ the Dow and the Russell 2000 what you should notice on this or what I'll point out Do you is the TD9 count tops and bottom patterns that we have out here most most specifically right now? What we're paying attention to is the TD9 count top and that top about form this morning at about 5 6 5 6 30 take that back 6 30 for each of the equity future contracts now what price has done so far It's only pulled back to test support support being that red oscillator and change line Now if this level holds and the TD9 count tops are taken out So level to be watching inside the ES mini is 37 88 75 if price closes above that that's going to suggest around the 38 17 If we take a look at the NQ The NQ can close above 11 5 28 then price to go target 11 6 54 in the case of the Dow The level to be watching out here to the upside is 37 64 if price is able to close above that We're looking to move to 39 27 now the move may take us beyond those levels But that would become a resistance level to be watching and in the case of the Russell 2000 the price point to be watching today is 17 07 70 now the downside that's pretty easy if price closes below these TD9 count breakout level So for the ES mini at 37 44 50 that's going to suggest that we're going to see lower price In the NQ the level to be watching be 11 389 and a quarter the Dow would be 34 22 and the Russell 2016 8040 now I wish I could tell you at 8 10 in the morning which way price is going to break, but I can't Right now what the charts are suggesting to us that price is going to attempt to try to break it to the upside out there And I say that because these red oscillator and change lines for the 30 minute profiles have held thus far Well, that's an interesting point if we go from the 30 minute time frame charts here And we go take a look at the daily time frame charts. That's we're going to pop up on your screen next What you'll see here is that in the case of the ES mini the NQ the Dow and the Russell 2000 The Russell 2000 being somewhat skeptical at this stage here But each of those are holding their red oscillator and change line levels out there now the end to yesterday Tested and rejected both its oscillator and change line That's the right hand up a right hand chart that you're looking at as well as the bottom of its profile out there So we know that support is held support has been tested if we go step back just for a moment and take a look at what else transpired yesterday Here we'll switch back to my black background screen So we'll take a look at the index ETFs and what you'll notice is that the the index ETFs that tested and rejected the swing Point their swing points that is would be the cues So if we take a look at the cues the swing point that I was testing was from the trading session of June the 16th 276 06 now the volume on that bar was 81.9 million shares and yesterday We did 79.3 million shares so very similar volume out there That typically suggests what really we're seeing take place here in the pre-market when you when you test a swing point And you do it with volume Even if you close back above and you reject the chances are you're gonna get back and you're gonna test that swing point So 276 06 is the number just out of curiosity. I don't know where the cues are trading right now But we're gonna find out real quickly here qq q 276 06 was the number were 278 60 So we're still Above that so wouldn't be a surprise to get down there and test that level Once again if we go back to the index ETFs out here We had the IWM the Russell 2000 so arguably the weakest of the indices out here But yet that gave us the strongest can't bust them down Gonna try to bust them up message out there and that was at the IWM traded into its swing point That swing point was from June 16th the volume on that swing was 43 million shares Yesterday's volume with the test rejection was with 31 million shares So that's given us the signal that it in fact does not want to trade lower Of course it's trading a bit lower in the pre-market out here But that it should move higher in fact this could could it wouldn't expect it to occur today But could be set it up an a to b equal CD to the upside We'll know as price gets into those swing points should they do that now in the case of the spies and the Dow diamonds They never get down to test their swing points what they did get down to test and reject was the bottom of their profile So in other words support held yesterday inside the spies inside the Dow diamonds and quite frankly inside the cues in the IWM Both of which tested and rejected swing points with lighter volume It's the cues that the volume is when I say lighter it just lighter by a smidgen out there Even if it's just a couple million shares out there So that's what's going on inside the equity futures markets We take a look at just here for a brief moment. What's going on in the rest of the world Well, if we take a look at spot volatility index It's going to be a key to be watching today and the price lover you're watching here is 2806 You see price close below 2806 that's going to signal a rally inside the S&P 500 Here you can see the NQ holding and testing the bottom of daily profile gold and silver we get back to this break Let's go take a look at them. They are a bustle in case of gold. It's taking it's it's testing a swing point from May the 16th, I believe it's yeah May 16 1792 Price close below that Well, it suggests that we're headed lower So try to figure out what gold and silver are doing we get back to this Blooming inflation. We are purchasing powers eroded. There's no better place to protect your harder and money than a gold This the gold flagship asset is the Monkhod gold project in the northern territory of Australia This is Australia's largest unveloped gold project. 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Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago To help educate investors just like you Tom's Daily Market Newsletter Market Insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge You need to succeed These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free With our money back guarantee at TFNN.com TFNN educating investors Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area? Including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger real estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay area Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed Decisions across all price levels from the price You should be paying per square foot in certain up-and-coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of Creating Tiger real estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market Before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future Call Tiger real estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 We've got the charts for gold up on our screen here got the daily weekly the monthly and the quarterly time frame So what you'll see here right now is that price is testing the swing point here from May the 16th 1792 and so price close below that that suggests lower price if we take a look at the weekly time frame chart It appears that gold is going to close below the bottom of its bull structured weekly profile And that's at the 1835 20 level So that is suggesting lower price it could even suggest somebody might say well Stevie is that setting up in a to B? Equal CD to the downside. That's a possibility Most certainly don't know that it'll be confirmed by volume doesn't always have to be confirmed by volume And in that case here the 8.4 gold would be the March 7th I this is the weekly chart We're looking at the May 16th low would be the B point and the C point would be up here from June the 13th And that would give us a one-to-one price projection of 1583 out there Now before that comes to fruition What we also see or what we should see out here We take a look at this weekly time frame chart is a consolidation pattern the consolidation pattern looks like this So here's the consolidation so more likely than not where gold is likely headed to or at least that's a suggestion As we speak right now is down to the lows of let's say probably the swing point from August the 9th And that's at the 1695 level and if price can break through this consolidation Then we're looking at a move then then I'd say we've got that a to B equal CD pattern Which will be in play no matter what it's in play as long as price closes below the 1792 area So that remains in play But it's really the consolidation pattern that sticks out to Stevie when I take a look at the weekly chart out here Another area where we could see support would be at the center of its monthly profile Now that is a bearish structured profile We saw two months more than two months close above the top of that that typically says that if it's just a counter-trend move That gold is in then it should find support at the center of that bearish structured profile And that is at price at 1764 so 1764 is a likely target another possible target is 1747 that's the top of its quarterly profile so that's what we've got support and Resistance levels if we take a look at the intraday charts out here We'll go to the multi-time frame chart just for a moment see if there's any kind of signals there Here what we'll see you'll see the daily in the upper left It's gonna be forming bar number seven of a TD 9 count says you couldn't see a TD 9 count bottom until next week sometime If that were to form on the a five-hour time frame chart To see what we have here. Give me open this up the five-hour time frame chart shows a what? And yes, I'm asking you that question so I see the a to b equal cd to the downside here that looks like this I'll just draw in the a to b line That's like this number. Just move this over to the c to d area out here so that would look like this and We're worried about the one-to-one level right now So what the five-hour time frame chart would say is that if we were to see a bullish reversal candle That would confirm a by the d-point pattern the two-hour time frame chart appears that So it's 821 And bar number nine is forming as we speak right now from the two-hour time frame chart And we know that bars eight nine to the bar following nine can identify a bottom So what this is suggesting to you and I is that on the 120 minute time frame chart goals either formed a bottom or will Form a bottom or should form a bottom by noon By noon if I take a look at the 60 minute chart It has a TD nine count bottom. That's in play. The only way that gets negated is a close below 1784 20 So I'd said watch the 60 minute chart because of gold on an hourly basis closes below that level That's going to be a signal that we should see lower price Otherwise you could see some type of bounce on that bounce where price would likely first head to would be those Oscillator and change lines. So we'll call that about 1796 1792 is the bottom of the 60 minute profile 1795 is the center of that bullet structured profile So if there were to be a countertrend rally the level to really be watching out here is 1795 that's going to be really important at 122 in the afternoon If you are listening to the archive version of this show because that will help you understand what gold is going to do Because if gold is traded above 1795 70 then that's going to suggest to move to 1802 or 1806 80 The other intraday time frame charts 5 minute 10 minute 15 minute out here It's the 5 and 10 minute that have bottoming signals But price is not taking out key levels of resistance to do that. You need to see a close above 1796 30 to suggest there's any traction out here So we know that we're testing at a daily basis the swing point at the 1792 level That's the one from May the 16th out there It's possible that by days in that that will hold that's at least the signal coming from the 60 and 120 minute time frame chart But if in fact that level fails then that suggests that price will likely head back to the consolidation area Which I believe we said was about 1695 1696 or so and that's how gold would play out Let's go see how silver is performing here. Let's change these charts here. We're in silver We're on the September contract here for silver So let's get that pulled up It'll take just a moment for these charts here to go ahead and populate while that's going on I'm going to pull up the and we'll just switch charts here Switch screens. I should say is well Let's go take a look at the daily weekly monthly just like we did for Goldilocks here for silver So in the case of silver silver has negated yesterday negated a TD 9 count bottom That was the swing point for May the 13th price trade below profiles out there It's trained below profiles on the weekly as well trained below profiles on the monthly So from a profile standpoint this suggests that what does silver wants to do is go target the 1629 to 1810 Level and that is the bullish structured quarterly profile Let's go switch and take a look at the white background chart see what kind of signals we're picking up here and We take the look at those you can see on the daily time frame that's your upper left-hand chart that today will Form bar number 8 of a TD 9 count pattern out there By number 8 9 or the bar following I can't identify the bottom So this suggests a TD 9 count bottom and silver could form because we need to get bar number 9 But I could form early next week now the 5-hour time frame chart right now It does have a TD 9 count bottom And so I don't know this this bar that we're currently in completes at 9 o'clock for the 5-hour chart here for a silver So that's as we go off the air So whatever the low is at that stage, and I don't know that the low is In at this moment here doesn't look like it But whatever the low is coming into the 9 o'clock session You want to note that on your pad of paper go back and look your charts a price trading below that then the TD 9 count on The 5-hour base will get negated and that would be a pretty good signal that what Silver's intent is to get down to 1629 to 1810 level out there If we look at the 120 minute time frame chart no bottom pattern by look at the 16 minute time frame chart It's going to form bar number 8 as we come to the 9 o'clock session That says a TD 9 count bottom on the 60 minute chart could form between 9 and 10 9 and 11 this morning no bottom signal on the 30 minute chart out here You do have a TD 9 count the pattern that's forming on the 15 minute chart So what I would be watching here I think the most important pattern is going to be really that five-hour time frame chart that's got that TD 9 count pattern So right now we're at 1946 1945 I saw a tick printed there But just come back at 9 o'clock. We'll already be off the I guess I'll be on the air But I'll be doing the 9 o'clock update just to whatever that price level is watch that during the day Now it needs to be a close below that so it's a five-hour chart So you've got a 9 o'clock the next to bar will complete at 2 p.m But if you're listening to show one o'clock price of trading below that low whatever that low is out there as I say right now So far out of 826 in the morning that lows at 1945 But it may get a bit lower than that see roads with TFN We'd love to hear from you a gift called 877-927-6648 We'll be right back Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia the Mount Todd Gold project Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIVC capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accretive Transaction Vista Gold trades on the NYSC American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGC Vista Gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value TFNN has just launched their July 4th tiger dollar sale for one week only We've doubled all the bonuses where you can now get up to 20 30 or even a 40% bonus on your tiger dollar purchase Tiger dollars are good on all TFNN newsletters webinars and trading services and they never expire for all the details And to get your tiger dollars before the sale ends Tuesday, July 5th visit the front page of TFNN.com today TFNN is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts in Collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David White has Programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology Using this first-of-its-kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci Formation setups including guardleaf ABC's butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when Scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months Searching to find and right now. 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Tigers Den at this moment So let's go back and take a look at the ES mini out here Let's take a look at the equity futures in more detail than we did during that first segment And here what we'll see the upper left hand corner you've got the daily timeframe You'll see that roads meant to Mindicator bottom pattern that formed out here in the ES mini for the daily timeframe That bottom in order in order for so you've got to confirm bottom that bottom will remain in effect unless you see a close below 3639 If you take a look at the five hour timeframe chart you'll see a TD9 cow bottom that formed on the bar following bar number nine right at this breakout level of support of 374575 out there Now what price needs to do if there's going to be any kind of sustained rally out here is price to go much close above its red oscillator and change line That is currently printed it will change as price moves up and down but right now 3799 so you can use that as a guideline out there If you take a look at the two hour timeframe chart this has both a TD9 cow bottom that took place yesterday at 10 o'clock in the morning And it's got a roads meant to Mindicator bottom pattern out here as well So it's got two bottoms two bottoms make it better than no one no not necessarily price right now in the two hour chart pulling back testing its red oscillator and change line Its resistance levels by the way are up at 3817 and 383450 support here would be support would really be at the price point of 3741 and a quarter The 60 minute timeframe chart right now it's in the process now it's not it's only 832 so we need another half an hour But right now you've got a bullish reversal candle that would confirm this roads meant to Mindicator signal so we're seeing right here just to summarize the top row daily bottom pattern 5 hour chart bottom pattern 120 minute chart bottom pattern 60 minute chart bottom pattern 30 minute chart Well it's got a bottom pattern but what we're waiting for here to prove that it's a which direction really the market's going to be trading is can The 30 minute chart take out the high of 378875 if it does that's telling us we had to hire ground the 15 minute charts both got both a bottom A roads meant to Mindicator bottom and it's got a TD 9 count top so that just really confirming what we took a look at on the 30 minute time frame chart And you've got both bottoms and top on the 10 minute time frame chart price right now the ES mini is trading above the top of its profile 3779 Now there's seven minutes left in this candle session but a close up 3779 is going to suggest a retest of the highs out there So perhaps we'll have some kind of information as to what the intent of the market is before we get off the air in about 27 minutes or so So the ES mini charts if we're going to go ahead and we're going to go ahead and make sure I'm showing those charts I am If we're going to go ahead and take a look at its charts to understand what the signal is it's absolutely trying to form a bottom And that's then what that that then makes so what you want to be watching especially well throughout the day but 130 in the afternoon the question to answer is where is that spot volatility index So we're going to change panels here that that spot volatility is below its 50 day exponential moving average then the rally that's in place right now or a potential rally should hold throughout the day So you can see here you've got the spot volatility that's been moving a bit lower trading right now 2854 2806 is the number your price close below 2806 then you should see a sustained rally The price remains above 2806 you can see some kind of rug pole out there with a movement to the downside so in summary the ES mini charts are most certainly pointing to a bottom Now if we go take a look at let's go from the ES let's go take a look at the NQ give me a moment here let's get those charts populated as well this will take just a moment and we'll go ahead and change the screens out here And here what we've got if you take a look at the upper left hand side daily timeframe for the NQ absolute bottom pattern out there so that's a that's a beautiful thing We take a look at the five hour timeframe chart no bottom yet there's just no bottom pattern so unlike the five hour timeframe chart for the ES the NQ's five hour timeframe chart is saying yeah I'm not so sure In fact the five hour chart for the NQ is suggesting more like you want to get down to 1119 if in fact that's what's going to unfold then then we're not going to see the spot volatility And the ES mini even though it's best intent is to try to form a bottom it just simply won't be able to do that I would think that the NQ would be able to overtake what's going on inside of the ES mini inside of the S&P 500 However if we skip the five hour timeframe chart we can see that the NQ is also attempting to form a bottom on the two hour timeframe you've got a rogment of indicator bottom that formed at about three or four o'clock this morning A price should go target 11572 you close above that and then that's going to suggest a further move higher in the case of the 60 minute timeframe chart TD9 count bottom The price can close above 1160475 that's going to suggest a move to 11688 we've got that TD9 count top on the 30 minute timeframe chart that suggests that a close above 11528 we should see higher price out here We get to the intraday timeframe these shorter term time much shorter 1510 and five minute charts out there each of those have bottoming patterns for sure yeah they do And but I still and you've got that TD9 count for the 15 minute as well so what that is telling me so that high I don't know if that's the same high as the 30 let's find out That high is 11528 and here we were at what 11528 okay perfect so if you do see a close above 11528 that's going to certainly suggest higher price now you might say higher price to where The price target to the upside would be 11716 to the downside you know the area to be watching to be that swing point from June the 16th and that level is at 11068 Out there so the NQ most certainly telling us that it is attempting to form a bottom how about the Russell 2000 so let's go take a look at it often overlooked here so let's not overlook it see what kind of signals it is generating for us Remember the Russell 2000 as we took a look at the daily chart earlier was testing its red oscillator and change line it's slightly above that right now so that's a key level of support We can also see on a daily timeframe price consolidated with inside the daily profile between 1667 and 1773 now as the five hour timeframe chart gets fired up it did form a TD9 count bottom It did it yesterday as well as the bar following bar number nine right at this breakout level of 1678 like the ESMini what the Russell 2000 needs to do to suggest that it is on its way to a bullish outcome is closed above that red oscillator and change line The red oscillator change line is currently printed in 1711 so called about 1713 or so a price able to close above 171370 that's going to suggest to move up to the 1733 and above that 1795 The two hour timeframe chart that confirmed enrollment of indicator bottom I did it this morning at six o'clock price found resistance at the top of its current profile that current profile top is at the 170480 level So close above that would suggest prices headed higher TD9 count and rogement to indicator bottom for the 60 minute timeframe chart price needs to close above 1710 to then suggest 1721 and above 1721 price should continue to move higher out there So you can see here the Russell 2000 much like the ESMini signalling to you and I on July 1st Friday July 1st that its intent is to move higher We'll call it all about the spot positive effect to give up that 58 exponential average that would be looking for the signal that there is a game on at rally time If you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report the gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose every Monday morning I published a gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the XAU, HUI, GDX as well as more than 30 different mining equities To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting TFNN.com Don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today From home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels From the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger Realty can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market Before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 or email us at Tiger at TFNN.com that's 727-329-8322 call us today China A share bull and bear ETFs China A shares in either direction visit Direction Investments.com today An investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares If you want to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact Direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors This program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ Good back folks so July 4th the weekend going to be kind of a light volume day out there or should be a light volume day that's the first thing and I do wish everybody hope everybody has a great fourth of July celebration I loaded up with my fireworks late yesterday afternoon one of the cool things about being in Florida is that if you're a farmer and I am a farmer Stevie the farmer out there you can use fireworks to clear off the animals off of your pastures so to speak So you can call me Stevie Perseverance Rhodes you can also call me Stevie Pyrotechnics Rhodes out there so always a cool thing the kids love it So we'll do our fireworks and then we'll go walk over to the beach and watch the beach fireworks out there so I haven't checked on the weather But hopefully it's good weather for everybody out there and we enjoy this wonderful celebration Now we've been talking we've been taking a look at the obviously the markets out here the charts the equity future charts we've looked at the ES looked at the Russell 2000 we look at the NQ out there and all of them are signaling a bottom So what else of course that we need that spot volatility X to really give us that confirmation that little bit of a push out there if we take a look at this chart where am I at Yeah perfect so this is actually the seasonal charts this is a provided to me by the folks over at season X if you were into seasonal charts these guys make it simple they've got they've really got some cool data out here And that's the chart that I've got up on my screen so what we have is the S&P 500 over the last 72 years but what I've also done here is I have selected what the S&P 500 does during the mid term election cycle Now the red line the red vertical line is where we're at right now so we talk about bottoms at the market is trying to form this is all also tying right in tying right in to what the seasonal mid term election cycle would show us out here Now it's going to be choppy in fact this suggests that it's going to be choppy through the early part of October out there when we typically get our normal type of a bottom but right now we've got the support that this is showing that we typically this time of year we see some type of bottom If we look at how the days trade here this is for the this is during the season this during the mid term election seasonal set of charts for the last 72 years Fridays are decent days Wednesdays are your best days out there If we take a look at the performance but from a monthly base we just came off of one of the worst Junes in a while well geez that is during a during the mid term election seasonal cycle this shows us our 12 month periods out here June is the worst performing month but July you typically have a rally going into July then the market starts to pull back into that October time frame out there now that's what it looks like if we use the seasonal cycle we can do this here I think this will there you go so I come back and take a look at the last 72 years without that pattern in play and that shows that typically a bottom forms around June 26 well in essence that's what really took place in the market last week at the end of last week we had confirmed roads with the indicator bottoms for the weekly time frames for most of the indices out there and we have those same patterns form for their daily time frames so I don't know that this is the chart that is in play out here I think it's more the mid term election cycle that we've got here and so so we should expect we should anticipate or the market typically rallies now whether it's going to or not is another thing but we'll just simply take things one step at a time so I mentioned earlier that the 30 minute charts are what we really want to be watching today just trying to simplify things for you here happens to be a 30 minute market breadth chart that takes a look at the S&P 500 and right now as of 846 in the morning we have 180 instruments that are trading above the top of their 30 minute profiles when you trade above the top of a profile what it doesn't tell us whether we've got a topping signal or not but when you're trading above the top of a profile you've broken through resistance you break through resistance it's considered to be bullish out here you break through the bottom of a profile it's considered to be bearish so we'll just call that directionally speaking here we can take a look at the market breadth we can and simply point to different crossovers well here what we've got is a bullish crossover because there's 106 instruments that are trading below the bottom of their profile and there's 181 that are trading above the top of their profile so now if we go back we take a look at the ES mini as we speak out here so go back to that chart we're just going to try to flip back and forth out here here if we take a look at the ES mini I'll just simply make that the only chart we're looking at on our screen right now I hope that's the only chart we're looking at on our screen that actually makes sense that we had that bullish crossover that bullish crossover took place at 830 this morning and at 830 this morning what price was doing is where my crosshair is right now price was pulling back and testing that key level of support and that was that red oscillator and change line so that level is held we can see that price is trading into its swing point from 630 this morning out there and again a close above that TD9 count high it's a close above the high which is 378875 that's then going to signal least to move to the 3817 area and a close above that says that we rally even further so that's coming from the 30 minute time frame chart for the ES mini let's go switch back to my TAS market profiles for the 30 minute time frame the only two indices that I can generate this for are the S&P 500 and the NDX100 or the NQ out here so now if we take a look at the NQ's we'll see also this again this is the 30 minute time frame chart let's let this populate so now what we know is well this actually says it has a bullish crossover but if I take a look at the actual statistics above the market price statistics and those are typically more correct we've got 32 above and 38 below so that's not you know and what we need to see here is we need to see if in fact this rally is going to sustain itself and it's certainly the signals right now the NQ is saying they are not so not so sure that I'm ready to make that run and take out is TD9 count top at least that's the message as we speak at 848 let's go back and take a look at its charts out here so let's go change the screens we'll go back whoops that was the wrong screen sorry how do I do this here screen change windows let's get back to the proper window out here and now it's the 30 minute chart for the NQ that we're going to look at so it doesn't have that that positive market that we're looking for but yeah I don't know really what else to comment on that I don't know that there is anything else for me to comment it's just not supporting that idea that it's getting ready to take out that TD9 count top so maybe the NQ is signaling to us that instead it's ready to try to test that support level again which is about 11.457 and if price closes below that we'd look at a move to 11.389 to 11.417 now it's only those 30 minute charts so it's only really the 30 minute ES so it kind of makes sense right when we took a look at the chart here the ES were very clearly articulating to you and I communicated to you and I that it wants to form a bottom but it's really going to be all about the NQ out there so maybe what we should do is spend a little time taking a look at some of those charts that really power the Nasdaq 100. Does that make sense? Yeah I think it makes sense let me just check though make sure that I don't have any request out here by email I don't think that I do it's a pretty quiet in the den out there so but I just want to make sure no we do have one request out here and that's coming from from Brent in Martinez California so we're definitely going to go take a look at his request out here he says good morning Steve can you please go through the same exercise on the Dow equity future contract as I did for the others have a great day and great weekend so absolutely so we will do that to close out the show for Brent in Martinez California we'll go take a look at the Dow equity future contract and see what it's charts are communicating. The reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky. 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Let's go take a look at those Dow equity future contract charts out here. So in the case of the Dow on a daily timeframe this formed a buy the D point pattern. It did it with that three river morning star. That pattern remains in effect unless price closed below that pattern that would be 29 639. We can see price pulled back as Tesla rejected that red oscillator and change line that would signal that price should make a run for that 31 354 level. In the case of the five hour timeframe chart what we don't have out here is a bottoming signal much like the we do in the ES we do in the Russell 2000. But if we take a look at the two hour timeframe chart Brent you've got a TD nine count bottom that formed yesterday that's been in place out here at 10 o'clock yesterday morning. Take a look at the 60 minute timeframe chart what do we have out here at this stage here not much so I don't see a pattern there. We did have a TD nine count bottom on the 30 minute chart for the Dow that says again watch the high that high is going to be the high of 37 67. The price closes above that that tells us that we should see a further move higher that further move higher. Let me see what the 30 minute chart reflects 30 minute chart says you should then move up to the recent highs from about one o'clock in the afternoon on June the 30th that would be up at about the 39 65 level. So that's a message of the 30 minute timeframe chart 15 minute 10 minute five minute they've all got bottoming patterns out there. They have some topping signals as well the 10 minute for example a TD nine count top the five minute roads meant to Mindicator top out there. So just says that the highs are really important that's really what how we began the show take a look at 30 minute timeframe out there and the price closes above those TD nine count tops. Then we're headed higher and the price closed below 30 422 inside the Dow equity future contract. Well then likely it's not going to be a very good start of the day for July 1st. So I don't expect that much of the way of fireworks today out there with it being a light volume day. But folks stay tuned we've got some great programming up next. You'll listen to this show at one o'clock. David White your favorite polar bears up. You're listening in right now live. It's Tommy O'Brien with the morning market kickoff. Have a fantastic 4th of July.