 Okay, very good morning to everyone. Monday, 25th of November, hope everyone had a fantastic weekend. As you can see, to the side of me, usual routine for the Monday morning, briefing, a look ahead, not just for today, but for the entire trading week. This calendar course available on my Twitter account and I'll share it in the trading live room as well afterwards. But remember, we do have the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, which does mean that markets are entirely closed early closure as well on Friday, which means that the week overall is likely to be very front loaded because even though there will be electronic trade, some short-floor sessions happening on the Friday, although the NISI might be open, the volumes are expected to remain particularly light if going off any historical precedence. So definitely the calendar is shaped towards all of the major economic data, kind of stateside, pretty much coming out then on today, Tuesday, and then Wednesday, it's quite busy as well for US data. So do bear that in mind, a little bit different than to our general kind of landscape that we see with relatively quiet beginnings and quiet finishes, whereas this week's gonna be quite first half centric, so worth bearing in mind. But let's just jump before we go into the actual news highlights of the weekend, let's have a look at the charts this morning and there's quite a distinct air of positive sentiment and this is coming off a couple of different things we're gonna talk about, which is updates on the US China trade war, there's been local district elections in Hong Kong, which have been translated into quite a positive event for markets and I'll explain more shortly. Then we're gonna have a look at Brexit, updates on the UK latest opinion polls and after the Conservative Party have released now their manifesto, how does that compare to Labour and what are our thoughts going forward? So overall, risk appetite quite clearly apparent this morning following the positive session overnight in Asia Pacific trade, Hong Kong, which you'll remember has been getting absolutely hammered recently amid the escalating violence that we've been seeing has bounced in excess of one and a half per cent overnight and that's translated into pretty decent open for the futures market. Gap up in terms of the US and European stock futures, you can see here the DAX already up to shy of 100 points just residing above its respective R1 and US index futures also positive we're just looking at the S&P 500 here, you can see managing to get back above what was an area of resistance going back on both that double top on the 21st and 22nd of Thursday and Friday last week, managing to leap that and also just finding a bit of support now during that Asia Pacific session at not only the R1, but that R1 also coinciding with the resistance that was seen on the 20th during the US session. So quite a neat area of consolidation perhaps until the US come in at least at around those levels. So the upper bound defined really by around that 31, 20 and three quarters and then the R1 at around 31, 18 or so. Having a look at some of the other asset classes then with that, T notes down about four and a half ticks gold down about six and a half dollars. So kind of your classical unwind if you like of any flight to quality move that might have been apparent in recent sessions. If we're looking at gold, just coming down to technically quite an interesting point on the 90 minute candlestick you can see just finding a bit of support around that low that we had back on the 18th so around this time last week. So worth keeping an eye on that today particularly if the US come in and take on this positive sentiment a little bit further any break of that could well put some pressure down towards the lows that were seen back well about a week and a half ago in gold and I'll let Charlie go over some of the technicals beyond that point but gold obviously you need to be looking at some further downside levels would be prudent if we're looking at the whole week as a whole. Elsewhere WTI crude then upper touch as well just given some of the risk appetite and we're just around pivot at the moment so just holding a $58 handle of around 30 cents and in the currency markets dollar index just a touch softer both major pairs positive if anything cable seeing a bit of outperformance here just breaking above its Asia Pacific high in the pivot point just seeing some moderate upside we'll have a look at those polls in a second and then looking at Euro I mean this was something the guys were looking at last week in respect to quite a key level that you can quite clearly see this is looking at a T 240 minute candlesticks and this upside level that really has failed to break and then closing below the 100 day moving average as well so that 1111 kind of level just holding and we continue to push down lower and on the daily chart obviously important if you're looking at it from that higher timeframe and you can see it just hasn't managed to get above that key level on multiple tests last week which you would think now has got a cap at least for this week the upside price action moving beyond that point would have to be quite an important test CPI data coming out out of lots of Eurozone nations as we go through the week so certainly warrants keeping an eye on as we go forward okay let's get into the calendar then and a couple of the news headlines as I say Charlie is going to look at the charts after me in a bit more detail but for today's session what have we got well probably the main highlight is going to be the German iPhone business climate reading that's coming out at 9 a.m. London time generally speaking obviously the economic conditions in Germany have been suppressed with manufacturing activity as defined by the PMIs being particularly weak so just seeing how companies on the ground are feeling about current and future expectations would be pretty interesting so if you are looking at European assets DAX, Bund, Euro I would keep an eye out for that coming up at 9 a.m. otherwise for today's session not too busy a couple of ECB speakers to be aware of Hossmann, Ville Roy and Lane all speaking throughout the day you'll notice that that's quite a distinct theme really throughout the week New York Coa speaking on Tuesday Lane makes another appearance I think on Wednesday Ville Roy on Thursday so quite a few things to have a look out for on the ECB side of course following Christine Lagarde we heard for the first time at the end of last week let's go straight into the news stories before we go on from Monday on the calendar and this is one of the main ones that people are looking at and this is Hong Kong's pro-democracy forces bolstered by a huge election win so what is this well the first thing to be aware of is that this is kind of local elections kind of district elections so if you were looking as far as I've read about this subject this morning on my way in this is not like the UK general election for example this is about the lower strung tier of politics that you can get within the setup in Hong Kong so is it meaningful perhaps not from a technical perspective but from a symbolic point of view it is particularly interesting and that's because what we've got here is pro-democracy candidates won 86% if I flick over of the 444 seats that were counted so far on last check so here on the graphic you can see the difference between 2015 which was the last time we had these kind of district elections and you can see the colour is indicative of the more kind of pink the colour the more pro-government margin the more green the more solid green the more pan-democrat margin you can see a huge monumental shift from being pro-government to pro-democracy so again they won 86% of seats in the last election they won barely 25% pro-government camp won about 12% of the seats overnight that was against a previous 65% the turnout rate was 71% which was a record and more than double the last time this took place in 2015 so hugely reflective I guess a sign of the times of the violence that's been happening and of course the public interest there locally but this will again go against somewhat the ability of mainland China the kind of headquarters in Beijing looking to impose kind of more one China control over that jurisdiction is going to be pushed back and and for the moment then this has been seen as a net positive for markets given how strong that has come across to have a look at the differential between how quickly pro-government support has flipped to democracy you can see there the the drop in the kind of pink line and the rise of the green line to just make it absolutely clear what's happened now it's not just about Hong Kong there's also been some updates on the the trade front so this is the latest out of the global times which was we know is the kind of main state media that updates on the Chinese side via Twitter as well and they said that China U.S. very close to phase one trade deal they said that China also remains committed to continuing for a phase two or even phase three deal with the United States according to the state back global times citing experts close to the Chinese government so still particularly bullish on the the ongoing negotiations from the Chinese side I'd say that's more repetition but again somewhat soothing for any investor fears about potential breakdown of these talks another positive coming out of China was this they said at the weekend that they will raise penalties on violations of intellectual property rights in an attempt to address one of the sticking points in the trade talks with the U.S. so essentially saying that they would drop the barrier or the thresholds for criminal punishments for those who steal intellectual property and that would be particularly aimed at appeasing their U.S. counterparts in these talks specifically and these came as guidelines were issued by the government on Sunday so really it's a the collection of all of those stories which is leading to this this kind of risk on attitude to the market open for the moment I would say much of the move has happened you can see that stock futures are I've kind of been bid and I'd say I've kind of phased out and we kind of or fizzled out and we're now consolidating perhaps we need to wait really until the U.S. come in to see if there's any more meaningful response in in markets to what's developed okay the other thing that we're gonna focus on is we're gonna have a quick look at the the pound here you can see just coming up a little bit this morning from we're just getting above some kind of areas that were perhaps resistance back earlier in the month and a key support on the 15th before the push higher if we continue to move on the upside I'll see the 20th a low comes in starts to look a bit more interesting so potential upside now until really towards the 129 handle so why why the pound so bullish well there's a couple of things that have been coming out over the weekend this is one we had the Tory manifesto released so coming about a week after the Labour Party and the kind of headline title pretty much wraps it up Tories pledging extra nurses tack cuts but to get Brexit done unveiling a sensible manifesto I did read this morning that for every one pound that the conservatives are saying that they will spend as a government that's equivalent so every one conservative power Labour promising 28 pounds for every Tory one pound I think that is just mind-blowing in terms of the monumental scope of what Labour are proposing in terms of government spent what it does mean though and I think that this is an absolutely strategic play by Boris because if you actually start for me when I read the Tory manifesto last night the one thing that really stuck out was the fact that in 2017 I think Theresa May basically shot herself in the foot by some of the changes that she tried to do in particular you remember that dementia tax particularly her amongst other things and so Johnson's kind of and his team apparently or seemingly have learned from that mistake they've kept a pretty consistent continuity to what they're proposing nothing to outlandish and what they've continued to bang the drum on is that this is all about having a strong economy and that is contingent on getting Brexit done so again he continues to kind of draw focus on it's the brexit issue obviously pledging extra nurses is to counteract probably Corbyn's biggest piece of a proposal which is that of targeting the NHS specifically of which they're seen more popular in that particular area and so the main point is that I think the Conservatives are still keeping that that tactical stance of let's just continue to not get too bogged down in these domestic issues do something that just basically does gets the job done without putting at risk anything and then let's just deliver brexit and keep people's minds focused on that singular issue because that ultimately is what this election is going to hinge on now on the back of this what how is this playing out in terms of elsewhere well this is the average pole of polls and as you can see here just to uh... emphasise again since the election has been called the liberal democrats of have really been hurt this kind of switch that we've had from calling for a confirmatory second referendum to now the idea uh... that they're looking to complete revoke i'm not sure if you saw the televised debates that we had at the end of last week i don't know i was talking to a few of you on uh... on social media about this live when it was happening but joe swinson got absolutely just killed by the audience in that debate and you know the the main take home point here being that she might have distanced even remain voters by the fact that not having a second referendum but just revoking obviously would go against the the democratic will of over half the country of course and so lived them and brexit party of course now for arches kind of struck this send me deal with boris so brexit party is about as low as its popularities ever being understandably lived them so have dropped and we continue to see this movement back into the two traditional parties but one thing that's become more evident over the last couple of weeks is that the conservatives have continued to uh... increase their gap over labor for the time being and we had three new polls over the weekend the biggest one of which was the opinion poll i think that was for the observer and it showed that conservatives when nineteen points ahead of labor so we're almost getting into that uh... twenty seventeen territory when it was kind of in the low twenties that conservatives were over labor but i again i must stress you'll remember what happened then even though it looked like a slam dunk for tereza for a commanding majority uh... the reality of course was far from it she came out the hung parliament in a worse a situation having to form that working majority with the dup now this was the uh... i mean this is the top level tori manifesto uh... and as you can see before he even gets into the guarantees of the different things like the n h s the police the immigration australian style points-based system first thing on the docket is we must get brexit done uh... and and that is continuing to resonate with the electorate as far as the polls are concerned the conservatives still have a commanding lead at the moment now one thing i did see last night i do think this is important this was the first big election model seat projection and this takes into account and i don't want to make this too complicated i try and simplify it but last uh... election nearly every pollster got it absolutely wrong apart from one and that one pollster use something called m rp which stands for multi-level regression and post stratification now what that is basically is a way of producing estimates of opinion and attitudes for a small defined geographic area it works by combining information from large national samples for example tens of thousands of respondents very different from the usual more like one thousand and then it cross-references that against omen essence census data it has proved before to be particularly accurate now this was the uh... projection that came out using a similar model and had conservatives with three hundred and forty nine labor two thirteen the lived ends most unaltered and so that would give the tories a majority of forty now again accurate is that going to be on december twelfth who knows i mean i wouldn't certainly uh... bet the house on it if he does get a majority and if we are using polls as one of the only real definitive metrics we can for building in the market expectation for the event was still odds on for a uh... decent touring majority and so the pound responding a little bit more positive this morning to these latest uh... developments the other thing to be aware of is in the second half of this week we do have more general election debate thursday night sky news and then there's a bbc election debate happening on friday night uh... seven p m and then there's two more after that one happening on december sixth and then one happening on december ninth before the running then to the actual date itself uh... all of these dates available on my my twitter account uh... just going back then to summarize the rest of the calendar for the week uh... tuesday probably the main thing here as i've identified with the the bolding in the underlining on this calendar you got feds power speaking that's gonna be particularly interesting i think because it's the first time he would have delivered a speech since his impromptu meeting with the u.s president and treasury secretary munition uh... and trump that we had last week when trump apparently was talking about negative rates and a healthy discussion on policy options and so on so power speaks and on tuesday uh... then wednesday again you get quite a lot of u.s data and you've got the weekly jobless claims pulled forward a day of course owning to the thanksgiving holiday market closures on the u.s on thursday and on wednesday you get the preliminary q three u.s gdp figure durable goods orders p c e numbers real consumer spending chicago p m i pending home sales personal income spending so it's all going to be squeezed in the calendar uh... in order to fit in that market closure on thursday so thursday's going to be particularly quiet i would say all things remaining equal uh... no major kind of north american data to speak of uh... then on friday you have those early closures as well in north america normally given thanksgiving is ultimately the biggest holiday in the states most traders and subsequently then reflective in market uh... volume they don't come back on the friday they typically then take that off and they'll take the whole extended longer weekend come back on the monday so it could be quite quiet into the week that the final two things i want to mention is that on friday friday of courses is black friday now black friday an estimated a hundred and sixty five point three million people will shop between thanksgiving and cyber monday according to the national retail federation in the united states we have been seeing quite a distinct shift uh... between the behavioral or behavior of the consumer moving more and more online so online shopping is uh... set to continue to grow e-commerce sales on cyber monday are expected to hit nine point four billion and that will be up nineteen percent in a singular year uh... to give you uh... insight into the actual statistics around that now so far with the u.s. retail sector wal-mart target of raise their outlooks that we saw most recently in their quarterly earnings uh... for q three while others like macy's have under-beformed against expectations so normally what happens at black friday gets in these early little indicators of how of these companies performing uh... how aggressive is the u.s. consumer spending and that sometimes can translate then into that friday session with some potential movement in the retailers and then on saturday arguably one of the most important piece of data coming out for the entire week uh... the chinese do often release their data on the weekend and on saturday you get chinese manufacturing non-manufacturing p m i and of course this is watched particularly closely under the the cloud of whether or not we can get this phase one trade deal wrapped up but if you actually look at the manufacturing p m i china has been recovering over recent months but some have been speculating is this due to the the anniversary that we had the seventy year of the com communist party not so long ago so was it kind of propelled by one factor uh... or is it to do with front loading trying to get ahead of the curve for impending tariffs in the u.s. in mid december so it's going to be quite telling to see whether or not we can continue that consistent pattern of the slow recovery in the manufacturing sector uh... in china on saturday that is it from me so i'm just gonna set up my screen and i'm gonna hand you over to charlie and he's gonna come on and talk over the charts a bit more detail but i'll catch you guys in the chat room just so you are all up to speed the guys at home uh... the guys trading live as well that sam is not in the office today so please direct your questions this morning to charlie directly and to me this afternoon thanks very much morning everyone hope you uh... had a good weekend as quickly starting off with the charts i'm gonna look at the uh... the bond something caught my eye this morning somewhat trend channel coming from the top here uh... one of the highs from last week over the uh... a few highs and uh... coming from this week as you can see here already to start off with we've hit that uh... we've hit that pivot point uh... and actually as we hit that resistance point from last week you can see how well it respected just gonna let's this area here i quickly zoom in you can see that following support here on the what resistance to support and then for the support before breaking back through and then getting that resistance you can see that she we've respected it rather well and as we got a bit of a cell off from that actually and then continuation to the following day and then that data that came out from the eurozone on friday that had this bit lower and ultimately higher in with that inverse correlation with the euro uh... now looking over to gold spotted on a longer term trend got a bit of a trend channel working not the most perfect one in the world but it's still definitely something that caught my eye just give me a moment to get it on channel here and here so you can see that these laws here coinciding quite well and that's a top down that area so looking ahead for this week well we can have that's some some nice down side obviously this high is uh... quite a nice area here and then a following through we didn't actually get a confirmed close below that from these levels down here so for me that area is still very good as support just getting that right onto the take that already breaking through this morning it's been an interesting one uh... as antony was doing the briefing actually i believe he he mentioned it uh... briefly you can see we did get a bit of a stop run as i was watching that as we broke below the uh... s one uh... well whether we see that continuation further to the downside this morning is uh... yet to be told but obviously with the stocks pushing high you can see somewhat of a risk of me with the bund already moving down with uh... t-notes so whether we see a continuation uh... is yet also if we get close below that now on a sixty minute close below that for me it would be quite a bearish indicator and then levels further down where you've got the s two level and obviously these laws uh... from the eleventh twelfth and respect and thirteenth respectively uh... again opening it back up quickly uh... to a longer time frame following that there isn't much was support rather following following through that this of that much significance in the fourteen forty six level and then obviously this trend channel that i've got on here will provide some nice support should we get down there later on this week or or perhaps even later uh... next week but following that you can see that between here and i suppose here there isn't much support going on from these levels here or offering much support rather so it's uh... it's an interesting one so if we can break below then and how far we do go gold notoriously is quite nice from technical breaks you do get quite a uh... a big and accentuated perhaps reaction in that uh... quick look over to the s and p knows a few nice technicals on the s and p if you just bear with me moment i'm going to clear up this chart so we can see easier drag it out slightly now one of the laws from the sick you can see there is a trend line that is still very much in play in my opinion so as you can see how much art although gapping up it's still nice area for you can retest now unfortunately this thirty one hundred level is uh... is it too far way to use as a to coincide with the trend line i don't know you know i'll draw a rectangle on there's a as an area where i'm looking at but should we come down there break the pivot you've also got the s one that in play as well uh... something we always say to the live traders is you know to technicals as a reason for entry is one of our key uh... key things that we try hammer home before you enter a trade but first of all i think we've got to try close this gap and then we can see where to go from that not only that you've also got this form of double top from thursday and friday last week so should we get a break through that then you've got that gap filled should we break through that and then the pivot level so there is some nice support to the downside as we do trickle down uh... if we break through them like i said you'll also uh... get gold rebounding off those loads of gold coming higher but again if we push higher and let's have a look perhaps to the all-time high at thirty one thirty two there with me mom's gonna open up my chart we've got a trend line all the way back from earlier on in the year april time but as you can see i believe some is looking at this last week one second let me just get it right on so you get the most precise there to look at put back in a sixty minute and you can see that that trend line is very much in place we had perhaps grind higher towards uh... the end of this week into thanksgiving we might get a bit of a rally perhaps but thirty one thirty two that as your all-time high and then that trend line uh... using as a nice technical area of resistance uh... following that again just to reiterate there's thanksgiving thursday this week so volatility quite low perhaps more than usual her last week wasn't too great overall i would say but um... but you can't have everything in this world can you okay euro almost just to finish up here you can see some so you've got that highlighted on the thing comes through through some of this morning uh... this is a nice area i really like this again it looks very similar to the pound chart actually but it's this area here with the dot with all the triple top really not there the cleanest in the world as you can see too far back as you can see here with these levels these support areas working fantastic and obviously that hundred daily moving average coming in and swooping in using as extra resistance got quite a few levels on here to take those off quickly uh... but should we get up to this area here i would i would say that the short perhaps looks on the more favorable side to be honest if we can get some more dollar strength uh... leads me on to the pound just to wrap up here leaves me on to the pound as you can see the middle chart skin to make slightly bigger something i noticed this morning uh... small trend line very steep but from intraday perspective it's what we like to see being respected just going to draw that on like so and you can see we're still getting nice respect from that trend line so for me that's a nice area uh... first if we can break above got them the one twenty nine level here's as you can see used to support on thursday and then this area here again so few lows in the mix that so should we get a break of that trend line and then perhaps moving above that and above above the one twenty nine level i'd expect a few comments out the sweet perhaps uh... parliament that's it for me hope you have a fantastic week and again just be careful of the volatility as we head into thanksgiving thursday cheers guys