 Okay, very good morning Tuesday 11th of February. I hope everyone is doing well Just to go over then a few things an update on the virus It's quite interesting of course to see that despite again the media still kind of pushing the narrative Stop markets don't care S&P record high last night down up 174 points this coming of course after a little bit of nervousness you can almost sense in the In the market and initially at the beginning of the reopening of trade on Sunday night deaths have indeed crossed now a thousand obviously the severity now as we mentioned yesterday having superseded SARS virus But once again, it's kind of the context is key and and what is it that markets are looking at and as I mentioned Despite these increasing numbers and still a lot of media attention attention on this subject of Of the 11 major sectors and the S&P 500 yesterday all but energy ended in the black Technology consumer discretionary shares Usually those most sensitive to downside in a risk-off type atmosphere were the best performing So all of those big major tech firms as you had imagined led the way higher posting their large the largest percentage gains on the breakdown That consequently leading over into the Asia Pacific session So Hong Kong South Korea up around a percent Chinese shares now posting their sixth day of advances obviously getting a little bit of a boost as well generally from the Return in a somewhat soft fashion to some workers in the mainland and then Japan overnight was closed Just as a reference point. So generally is a kind of fed through the age in session So US index features still reside up at higher levels but largely I think for European equities It's kind of a Pick up and let's just review of where we are at the moment now Let's just switch over to the DAX Kind of carrying on or passing in the baton almost from the Wall Street close to Asia to Europe The DAX as I speak is at session highs got about 130 point gain this morning a couple of individual movers there Deutsche telecom I was catching some news this morning updates in regards to sprint and T mobile deal But they're up about 4% out of the out of the gate And then if you look at Daimler, this is a sort of counter-intuitive news that you get with stocks Is that Daimler slashed its dividend following a profit warning the shares up three and a half percent? now the idea here being that you know sometimes, you know if you've got like a Let's say a slight infection better to cut your arm off and just Start from fresh and the aggressiveness of the way of which they've been looking to just kind of Batten down the hatches so to speak seemingly being met greeted positively by investors We're talking a lot about large-scale job cuts. They've cut their dividend to 90 euro cents a share After their 2019 earnings more than halved I think their previous dividend was up in the three euro range Restructuring legal charges the third-profit warning now for what is still actually a relatively new CEO So the market's looking at this as you know, aggressive restructuring as a positive for the company to secure It's more long-term prospects in that sense, but yeah So overall looking at the market this morning Red Chevy up beats a gold down about 10 bucks T notes down 13 and a half And that's a pretty pretty punchy move for this time in the morning So basically it's just grinded lower all the way into the clothes on Wall Street Kind of drifted south and then a bit more weight come in as as European participants have come into the market And you can see the US tenure just finding some natural resistance and it's s one which also just coincides then with the Double-bottom test that we had towards the end of yesterday's session. So Yeah, just having a look elsewhere oil price is pretty steady currency markets Reflecting relatively flat conditions in the majors in terms of euro and cable Both sitting below their pivot at the moment Obviously some UK data coming out in a short while on the GDP front the Aussie Let's just have a look just given the general Moderate risk appetite observed overnight in the Asia Pacific region So the Aussie up a touch just finding a bit of support in the futures on the break above It's our one in the overnight session seen up about 28 pips Just reflecting that general positive Asia equity performance as well Let's get straight into some headlines then Few things that we're looking out for today One is Fed share power Like to give Congress a largely positive economic update. So you'll remember This is part of the kind of two-day event in Congress So he speaks to the House Financial Services Committee today and then the Senate Banking Committee Tomorrow and this is the big one because Largely what he says to the house. He'll repeat to the Senate. So once the market has already Digested what's been said today There's no impact on Wednesday's one. So today in terms of what we're expecting Largely looking for a repeat that economic fundamentals in the US are a sound and that a quote Material change is the words that they've been using recently is required in order to shift that view likelihood as well, he's going to be questioned a lot by the various members of Congress on the coronavirus of course, but as per what he said in the recent press conference In the Fed decision it's kind of too early really to tell of the or quantify the impact of that And so generally just observing those trends and the impact it could have on the global economy Later on down the line to make that judgment So largely brushed off on that point yesterday. We did have the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president Daily speak said on Monday US economy and policy were in a good place A non-voter is daily kind of centered dovish in that respect But I think that generally is the kind of thing that will be reiterated today policies in the right place Generally, I'd say a relatively upbeat tone. You can expect from Jerome Powell Irrespective of this kind of ongoing Concern about the implications of the the spreading of the virus Because underlying this as well, of course member last week generally a Decent set of economic numbers across a variety of different measurements And that's going to come as some welcome relief for the for the US economy at the moment timings wise What time is this happening? Well? 130 the testimony is released The House Financial Services Committee then begins at three. So usually the way this works is the accredited financial newswires like Bloomberg Reuters or raffinative as they're known these days They will have the text and they will snap all the comments. So we get a whole flutter of headlines and then subsequently a little bit of Volatility across asset classes at 130 and then the actual Event begins at three but remember three when he reads out the statement is just a reiteration of this The text we've already seen and then he gets questioned by politicians literally for hours and hours When it goes on a long time Largely, it's used as a bit of a staging post for politicians to just kind of criticize the Fed In regards to their managing of the economy and it's it's not really apart from that first part Much market moving in terms of the Q&A the questions, you know being as kind as I can be They're not particularly sophisticated questions that the politicians put at him from a potential They're not on effect to how short-term markets might react Yeah, that that's the the deal with power and then looking at the calendar for today quite a lot of UK economic data coming out Now at 9 30 you've got a whole cluster of information What I'm looking at here as a chart of the recent readings for a gross domestic product GDP in the UK and a month-a-month reading and they're looking at the three months from three months reading with the blue line and The blue line being forecast and the red here bar being what is the street estimate for the reading for today? So for the headline preliminary Q4 UK GDP it is expected to come in at 0.2% which would be a bit of a bounce back from the negative 0.3 that we had Previous to that now one thing of course is the UK economy then getting a bit of a modest pickup following the emphatic win of Boris Johnson's Conservative party at the yet the election at the end of last year and that's largely to be reflective in In this figure today This figure alone though, you know, is this the saving grace now for Boris and the Tories I'd say not Because if you think about it, this is growth data dating back to the end of last year The markets are very much more forward-looking and we're now in almost the middle of February so it's quite dated and Despite the initial kind of relief little bump that we've had in data I do expect that to materially weaken over the coming months as generally The focus and for from a pound movement point of view moves back to politics and Brexit As what we're seeing at the moment. We're kind of on a bit of a standoff On the negotiation front and I'd expect that to be the case to continue for a number of months And that will put the pressure back on the no deal and subsequently more emphasis on the on the political side of things and Subsequently the economic data should then re weakened once again So I wouldn't get too head up in this GDP number if it is an upside print again the expectations are for growth of point two percent so to avert this kind of Technical recession type situation of two negative prints back to back Alongside that you do get the manufacturing industrial output numbers and also the trade balance figures coming out the UK It's all coming out at 9 30, but I'll be here to cover that with you guys at the time of release Looking at the calendar what else have we got So as you can see the UK numbers really dominate the releases here And that's pretty much it for the morning going into the US afternoon equally is quite quiet And in fact other than the API weekly crude inventories really its speakers now Let me just blow this up so you can See this a bit more clear So London times here on the left-hand side. So you've got all in the afternoon So nothing in the morning. You've got Bank of England's cunliffe. So let's focus with the Bank of England first cunliffe Well actually look you've got the calendar here is put Carney, but I Think there's changed now. So obviously Andrew Bailey Stepping in but then you've got Bank of England's Haskell So a couple of Bank of England speakers to be on the look out for and as they've got here Haskell was a dissenter and a leaning dove Cunliffe tends to sit more in the center in that respect You've then got Christine Lagarde speaking on the presentation of the ECB's annual report in European Parliament at 2 o'clock You've then got the main headline event which is drawing power for this afternoon giving the semi-annual testimony to the house and then you've got couple of others ECB economist Lane ECB's Schnabel now not sure if you're aware, but just as an update I don't think what Isabelle Schnabel is gonna say is gonna be particularly important But there has been a slight change as of the beginning of 2020 So just so you're all on point Fabio Panetta a long time serving Italian economist is now on the executive board So you remember the structure on the ECB you have the executive board that sit there at the top and then the heads of the various different national central banks The other addition then onto the executive board has been Isabelle Schnabel who is speaking later on this afternoon now. She is basically a lifelong academic From as you can see here various different German educational institutions the executive board when they speak generally Keep their cards fairly close to their chest. They tend to be relatively aligned with Christine Lagarde So it's not like hearing from Jens Weidmann this chap down here for example, but just to cover off our bases So, yeah, that that is pretty much it Kashkari is speaking. He's kind of a big dove That's going to be later on in the if you're sticking around You've got a three-year note auction coming out the US Treasury for 38 billion In terms of earnings out of the US nothing kind of from an index traders point of view really to look out for too much So really the afternoon dominated by the Powell speech, but again as I said not expecting real Ground-breaking comments out of him to be to be honest with you. All right I'm gonna leave it at that hand you over to Sam. I wish you guys a good day ahead and I'll see you in the chat Thanks very much. Hi guys. Good morning. Hope we all good had good weekends and Monday See quite quite a quiet one yesterday. So if you're just joining us not too surprised Historically, I would say I've very very rarely trade a Monday after Non-farm perils, but I did yesterday evening finally getting into a trade But just having a look here before we go over to that trade the S&P It's looking at the DAX likely here to push on and and make its new all-time high Let's have a quick look at it's that on the daily just to confirm there You've got the the high that we had back on the 22nd of January And we're not far away from hitting that good start from the open found some support on the Asian session lower around 315 and we're just trying to get above there Now to keep a watch on that probably have a bit of profit taking for the course then the opportunity comes while the volume is there that If the market does push on it could drag the others Over in the states with it as well So the DAX is pushing on we'll have a little review of that later on just to see how we reacted to that high yesterday the S&P obviously pushed higher from cash open and then Did give the opportunity to get back in albeit later on in the day once we had broken Above this trend line which had been from the the all-time high We came back it did take a while and then 530 you can see price came in and then has pushed on since then and supported Simile just near those lows that we had from earlier on in the session one while the DAX is pushing You might get a further follow-through here for US stocks but really nice opportunity here on the break of that trend price came back and Yeah around 530 came in I know a lot of the guys in house were looking to take this on Just around four o'clock before we wrapped it for the day. So Yeah, unfortunately not to get in that for them, but you know well spotted and still a good trade idea the pound today Of course, we got the the GDP 930 and the speakers as well. So probably a busy day For cable in terms of price movement and we're just drift in lower the last two Bank of England meetings have had incredible volume 1159 we know data releases are Usually or it seems at least leaked to some parts. So it'd be interesting to see what happens over the next hour or so and Most importantly maybe the first 15 minutes after 9 o'clock To give us a cue for perhaps where this What this data release could do and how it could come out if we have a look on the daily chart? And it's obviously not really going to want to position yourself into a Trade now, but we have still closed below these areas of support depending where you have them yesterday So we had quite a nice push really from around about now Until the afternoon, but we still finished low Lower than the support level. So from a technical perspective I still think there could well be a bit of downside could this data really change the overall outcome for this market For the week probably not speakers perhaps could So I'd still favor a move to 128 on that the euro Is of course here now on this daily chart? You can see another decent push lower yesterday We're trading on levels not seen since last year September time And then the talk starts coming in again about filling That gap from or Macron's gap shall we call it? Another bad day and and that could come relatively quickly, of course Around about here the low that we had on that Monday after the first round French elections 108 47 and a half in the futures could be a decent target to have but it is big support here so Trade it at your your peril perhaps waiting for a bit of confirmation. It is a key level Of course, you know the last two times we've been at this point We've reversed quite nicely and of course we haven't come back here since the first of October last year looking at a market That perhaps might have a better chance of recovering From similar levels and this could be of course what you're looking for in the euro If you like the longs is the the sort of false break of some previous areas of support here in the Aussie dollar We did test it of course last week the RBA keeping rates on hold at 0.75 and that pushed us higher Low then decided to come out and not say anything too positive and we drifted back down along with some dollar strength But we did False break these lows yesterday and confirmed a push back above and we've had a decent start to proceedings today I just be aware and I'm just gonna put this on the 60 minute now You're just coming into an area where you know the balls would have really liked to have taken over and they Haven't quite yet We are now trading back on the high of yesterday afternoon So this is another key point as well for that Aussie, but if you're a euro ball And you're looking for a similar kind of trade You know, this is probably what you would want to see maybe that false break price come back in and then to that level And then you can push on to the upside However, Twitter would tell you that this markets going lower and lower But of course Twitter has been wrong many times just like with the greatest bull run in history Another market near those lows. Let's have a look at oil So a lot of these these mark me if you like a rain strain you like good risk reward I mean these are opportunities that surely you've got to be looking at For oil what's going to make you want to pull that trigger to get long Probably something fundamental to change, you know, maybe the confirmation of a The OPEC cup or something deeper in the rumors. I think if we can get above I mean, I know you'd be late to the party obviously 52 bucks and and change here This is a key level. You'd be more confident. You can see we we've rejected that the last time we came up on on the 6th but it's a key zone as we know and You know, if we can maybe close the day back above 50 36, which is obviously a key level support going back to this time last year And a bit, you know from the the summer You could be perhaps a bit more confident on that just below where we're trading, of course These are the levels that I would be aware of 47 87 and 48 dollars That will still be a target for anyone that is sure on breaks of these levels or any Retracements back to 52 where they got in But you know time will tell for oil I think we could well be looking back and seeing price higher up is just how low does it have to go before that happens? Gold let's have a quick look as Ant said just drifted down this morning following some nice risk on in Asian trade and Following last night as well. Let's have a quick look to see if a trendliners Is worth having on here? Really lovely lovely This is the the one we had on yesterday We were saying well this if this breaks you could have a decent opportunity Unfortunately, that would have been at 2 a.m. Or 7 a.m. On the retracement of that target And then the low of the days have a quick look and I mean you can't really get much better than that Artwork I might frame it on my on my wall for that lovely trade And also you could argue a bit of those previous lows as well So for gold there's your line in the sand albeit diagonally to the upside that I would want to keep an eye on the lows as we're Traded just recently also from the 7th Just probably now worth moving this line down and call it a bit of a zone around 1569 That's obviously we want that to go for an extra leg lower probably worth keeping an eye on what stocks do If stocks continue to push higher then we could of course come lower. We were in a situation yesterday where You know it's important to realize there's good times to trade and bad times to trade Monday after non-farm payrolls usually not that great and yesterday you saw that correlation wise You had a strong dollar, but gold was going higher and stocks were going higher. It doesn't really make too much sense And you know this morning, okay, we got a nice little data card But historically as well that Monday Tuesday non-farm payrolls are always relatively quite quiet But for gold it's stuck in this little range now good trade earlier If you took it on, you know, why do you really want to get too much involved again unless it breaks that low? Perhaps quick look over that dexter to wrap it and so we get the high not quite But keep a watch on that on the future's 13 638 0.7 give or take And of course if we were to just to drift lower now, you've got those previous highs of the day around 13 600 so keep a watch on that as well UK data in One hour to the minute. I hope you will have a good trading session and a good day and I'll catch you all in the