 Four races in the books coming off of the COVID-19 layoff, and one more coming up which will be the fifth race in I believe 15 days for the NASCAR Cup Series. It's been fun, it's been crazy, there has been way too much rain. But we get to watch a race in Bristol on Sunday and there is no better way to cap off this really fun run. And it's going to be interesting for DFS too because it is radically different from what we had for Wednesday or I guess Thursday's race. So it's going to require recalibration of our minds and what we're seeking out from a roster construction perspective. So let's go through what we should be doing for the supermarket heroes four or 500. Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst here to break down the supermarket heroes 500 at Bristol. Once again the fifth NASCAR Cup Series race in 15 days. There is no race is upcoming Wednesday which is kind of heartbreaking to think about but there will be another one the following Sunday and I believe the Wednesday after that. So still a lot of racing coming up even if the the crazy crazy stretch is coming to an end with this Sunday's race. And it's a really good way to go out because if you have not watched a race at Bristol before you're in for a treat. It is basically like putting you know 40 cars in a blender and seeing what happens. That's effectively what Bristol is. It's called the The Last Great Coliseum. It's a huge high banked fast short track and those sound weird together but it leads to a lot of fun racing. So I'd recommend watching the race even if you decide maybe you don't want to play DFS for it because it is going to be an entertaining afternoon of racing. Locke is at 3 30 p.m. on Sunday. 3 30 p.m. Eastern I should say. Once again no qualifying and no practice for this race and we'll go through the implications of that in just a bit. But more good stuff coming up next week here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. As mentioned we'll have another podcast for NASCAR for the following race after Bristol but also a UFC paper view event coming up next week. So make sure you check us out for that. If you're listening to this before Saturday you can also check out the UFC podcast we did with Austin Swame for the May 30th card. Check out Austin's thoughts on that here in this exact same feed and make sure you are subscribed to get all these podcasts right as they go live. Before we take a look at the track breakdown ever wonder what would happen if the Chicago Bears had drafted Patrick Mahomes or if Michael Vick played against Lamar Jackson. Well now you get to find out with Fandals football multiverse a new contest type consisting of Madden simulations around crazy what if scenarios. Each scenario will be streamed on YouTube and have an accompanying free to play fantasy game. This week in the multiverse what if the Jaguars had drafted to Shawn Watson instead of Leonard Fornette in 2017. Test your prediction skills and play a free DFS tournament for $3,000 in real prizes where Watson and the Fornettless Jags square off with the Indianapolis Colts. Head to Fandals.com slash NFL multiverse to enter and do not forget to subscribe and tune in to Fandals YouTube channel on Wednesday at 8 p.m. 8 p.m. Eastern to watch me and JJ Zacharyson call that game should be a whole lot of fun to see to Shawn Watson on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Let's dive into the track breakdown here for Bristol and the name of the game this weekend is lap sled because there are 500 laps in this race which means there are 50 points available for lap sled on Fandals and we're going to get multiple huge upside plays within this specific race. Now we're looking back at past history at Bristol it's important to note that they are running a different package than they ran last year. Last year the Cup Series had high spoilers on the cars that tracks like these and it made passing really tough and that does change the dynamic of the track. They're going back to a lower spoiler package for this year similar to what they had in 2017 and 2018 before that they didn't have stages and that does change things from a lap sled and a domination perspective so if we're trying to get our most representative sample of what to expect at Bristol we're going to focus on the four races in 2017 and 2018 at Bristol to decide how we should play things this weekend. In that four race span 10 drivers led at least 100 laps in a race that is an average of 2.5 drivers per race. There were 15 drivers who led at least 60 laps and three drivers led at least 200 laps which is 20 points on Fandal from that category alone so clearly we need to put a huge emphasis on that when building lineups. If you stack the back here like we did for Thursday's race your lineups are gonna suck and you're not gonna cash. The one tough thing to juggle here is the starting order. In those races the drivers who started first had major speed in qualifying or I'll say would not have won the pole and we saw that speed prior to the race. Three of the four pole setters had led at least 100 laps in the race and that was important and it made sense because they are fast in qualifying probably going to be fast in the race too. This year the pole setter will get that spot via a draw. They will set the field the same way they did before the first Darlington race. The top 12 cars and owner points will occupy the top 12 spots in the race but the order of those 12 spots will be set by a draw. Then the same thing for the cars 13th or 24th and owner points and so on and so forth. This means the driver starting on the pole may not have the fastest car on the track for that day. Instead the driver with the fastest car could be starting in theory 12. That makes things tougher for DFS because we have less information to go off of but we should give a major bump to the drivers who draw high starting spots. Of the 10 drivers to lead at least 100 laps in that sample seven of them started within the front three rows so first through sixth. Passing may not be super tough or at least as tough as it was last year but track position will still matter on this track and laps tick off and hurry. If you get the lead you're probably going to lead like 40 or so laps just because of how fast laps go by on this track. So you should account for where drivers start when making decisions. I do not think that means you need to write off a stud if he starts 12th though. The other three drivers who led at least 100 laps who started outside the top six started 10th 16th and 18th. Kyle Busch won and led more than 150 laps from the 18th starting spot once. So as long as the cars are fast they can still do it. It's just harder to do. Let's say your favorite driver for the race draws a 12 starting spot. It's a pretty big bummer. I would still be okay using them though. I would just use the wave strategy when doing so. There you would use someone starting higher in the order who can lead laps early on in case you didn't know what the wave strategy was. Didn't hear our call 600 podcasts. It's where you use drivers and waves. A wave one driver who can lead laps early on and a wave two driver who can lead laps a little bit later. There you can scoop up the points for laps led both early and late and still use the guy starting back in 12th spot. So laps led are a major emphasis and that's an easy thing to say. It's easy to look at you and say we want drivers who will lead laps. Well duh the problem is that it's super expensive. Drivers who lead laps generally aren't super cheap. Thankfully there are a pair of ways to work around this issue. The first is that not every driver who lead laps will drain your salary cap. In the 2018 fall race the night race three drivers led 100 laps and they were all $11,000 or cheaper on Fandle. One of them was below $10,000. In last year's fall race Matt Di Benedetto led 93 laps. That was most in the entire race and he was in really bad equipment. If you see a mid-range driver starting near the front who can lead laps, awesome. Lock that driver in. That might let you get three lap leaders onto your roster which would be huge from another side perspective. If you're getting access to 40 points for laps led versus 30 or 20 that's going to make a big difference. So those mid-range drivers are a key to getting additional lap leaders on your roster. The other key to working around the salary cap is punting which is very much in play here. Punting works for two reasons at Bristol. The first is that equipment matters less so the pool of drivers who can get a good finish is larger because fewer drivers are crossed off due to bad equipment. Second there are going to be crashes especially with the smaller spoilers back in the car. In our four-race sample from 2017 to 2018 26.9% of the drivers who started the races finished at least 20 laps down. Every time one driver crashes, every driver behind them moves up a spot which is worth 1.5 Fando points when you account for the finishing points and for the place differential. So instead of finishing 25th someone might finish 18th just because of attrition in front of them and that can work at the right salary. So to me I think this gives us a pretty clear way to view drivers in each salary tier for this race. For the studs we need them to be able to lead laps. If there is a stud who you don't think can lead laps that's a pretty major opportunity cost and we don't want to take that on at a race where laps led are such a major focus and most of the lap leaders are going to come from somewhere near the front of the order. So that's why our studs probably should start pretty high and need to have the upside to lead a lot of laps. For the mid-range plays they're kind of swing guys. If they're up front and can lead laps awesome that is super attractive but if they're starting a little bit further back they can also work as long as you already have two lap leaders locked into your lineup. If you don't have those two lap leaders it's a much tougher sell to use mid-range drivers who are starting deeper back. There you might want to find the salary to jump up to someone a little bit more expensive who can lead laps and settle for a cheaper mid-range play beyond that. Then for the value plays the default hope is that they are starting further back so they can get place differential. The place differential is a lot easier to get at tracks where there are wrecks which there will be a Bristol and you can make up ground at this track you can make passes you can finish better than you start for sure. So I would shoot for place differential there are some teams with good drivers who are outside the top 24 and owner points and could start outside the top 30 even. So if we find cheap plays like that they're going to be really hard to pass up so shoot for place differential on the cheap guys unless you think they have the upside to lead laps. All right so recap here strategies for Bristol. Lap sled, lap sled, lap sled. I think that if you're feeling got a lineup and you don't have two dominators in that lineup two guys who could jump out front and lead a lot of laps you should reevaluate because that's the minimum I would say and if you can get three that is even better and three is generally a place that you get by using mid-range drivers who are starting near the front. You can use the waves strategy if necessary if you like a driver starting in you know 10th or 12th or something like that you can use them I would just pair them with someone starting closer to the front who can lead laps early on. Look for cheap drivers who can lead laps we'll go through a couple of them in our tier by tier breakdown and I'll pin points drivers who I think have the upside to do that. So I will note them look try to find those players so you can get additional lap sled upside in your roster and finally be willing to punt because punting is more viable here those drivers can finish better than they do at most tracks and we want access to extra upside and those really cheap drivers get us exactly that. So that's the strategy for Bristol let's take a look at some specific drivers who fit what we want by going tier by tier on Fandall starting off with Kyle Busch at $14,000 through Denny Hamlin at $12,000 Kyle Busch is if you look at just Bristol he's the clear top driver we just haven't seen the same speed from him this year. If we look at all eight races so far in 2020 Kyle Busch's led just 14 laps and he also kind of weirdly and this is strange to say and I'm acknowledging that it's weird to say but he struggled at the end of last year too even though he won the championship yeah he won Homestead but leading into that race there were questions about the speed for Kyle Busch. So if Busch were to start all the way at the front of the pack I would trust him as someone who could lead last because this is a different package than they've had at the other races maybe he's just had issues with that package but when they were at Phoenix the other race they've had with the low spoilers he ran really well sixth place average running position third place finish there I think that that that gives me a bit more confidence but I think that it's hard for me to be to view Kyle Busch as a must use play even if he starts up front just because the speed this year has been a bit questionable so if Busch draws a high number I will go there because I think that he is worth that but if he draws a lower number like if he draws 12 I'm okay being lower than consensus on Kyle Busch despite the elite history that he has at this track interestingly enough uh rubbing my model this morning after adding in last night's race the top guy in my model is Brad keselowski he is $12,300 and I'm pretty okay with being high on him and I think that the reason that I sound surprised is because my model doesn't usually like keselowski that much because he doesn't dominate races all that often and that really gives a boost to drivers in the eyes of my model because we want lad sled we want guys who are running up front and winning races keselowski doesn't do that he does run well at Bristol though even if the finishes don't back that up he had a top six average running position and led at least 40 laps in both races here last year the form is obviously good for keselowski too because he won the first charlotte race finished seventh last night sixth place average running position at phoenix using the same package and I think that that's enough to get me to buy in as with everybody else starting up front my interest in keselowski will depend on where he draws but I do think it is worth noting that I'm higher on keselowski than I usually am entering a race the penski cars last year were just elite at this track so I want to buy into them it is a different package and I acknowledge that but using this new package this year it was Joey Logano who won and we didn't get to see what what Ryan Blaney could do but penski won that race so I'm still on them despite the change in package overall I'm high on penski Brad keselowski is included in that this is a good track for chase Elliott too he is in this tier he is at a top five average running position in two of the past three Bristol races Kevin Harvick benefits from this being a track in the old package where his driving style is better accentuated where he drives super deep into corners that's better at a track like this where there's more off throttle time than when he's at a faster track so it's a tough tier to rank for sure but if I had to rank them based on how interested I would be if they were to all draw at the front somehow they can't obviously but if they were to do that I go keselowski first once you consider a salary Elliott would be second then Harvick third Kyle Busch fourth Denny Hamlin fifth and Martin Truex junior sixth I just generally think we should be high on Brad keselowski at $12,300 let's move now to the second tier on Fandle that is Joey Logano at $11,700 through Jimmy Johnson at $10,000 and in this tier it's worth noting that Johnson will be starting between 13th and 24th and that's going to make it hard for him to lead laps and he's kind of in the range where I'd prefer him to be a lap leader over a place differential guy so I'm not inclined to be super into Johnson right now unless he draws like 24th and there are two clear lap leaders I like elsewhere than maybe I can get there but Johnson is going to be lower in this tier to me just because his ability to dominate and lead laps is going to be lower than everybody else in this range the others in this range are all starting in the top 12 spots and two of those drivers are Penske drivers and as mentioned I love Penske for this race and they're going to lead this tier for me those two guys driving for Penske in this range are Joey Logano at $11,700 and Ryan Blaney at $10,300 and both those drivers have awesome histories at Bristol. Logano has led at least 95 laps in two of the past three Bristol races and that means he has done this in both the lower spoiler package and the higher spoiler package which bodes well for Sunday when they go back to the lower spoiler. Logano has had a top eight average running position in six of the past 11 Bristol races and that includes three top five marks and that's a race winning strength number if you have a top five average running position you are a contender to win that race. As for Ryan Blaney the stats don't always show up this is arguably his best track Blaney has led 100 or more laps in three of the past four Bristol races in one of those he wrecked while leading so not going to finish there but he has had a top eight average running position in five straight Bristol races two top five marks in that span as well and Blaney actually leads all drivers in the field in the current form only part of my model and I think that's super interesting because he was good both in the old package and this one I think that Blaney is a great bet to win. Odds were not up at Fandals Sportsbook as of this recording but Blaney is also cheap for DFS at $10,300. I was talking in the track breakdown about trying to find mid-range drivers who can lead laps and win Ryan Blaney is the guy I was thinking of when I was talking about $10,300 upside to win a lot of laps led in his past in this track so Logano and Blaney are going to set a top my ranking in this tier before the qualifying draw but Ryan Blaney is specifically a really intriguing to monitor for Sunday's race. Kurt Busch is here too he is 10-6 there are lots of similarities between Kurt Busch and Ryan Blaney where they could be cheap sources of laps led so I'm going to rank this tier Ryan Blaney one Joey Logano two Kurt Busch three Alex Bowman four and Jimmy Johnson five the Hendrick cars a little bit lower my list I've loved the speed so far this year and I'm not off them but I've seen other teams do really well with this track type before so I'm going to gravitate towards them over the hot Hendrick cars the middle tier on Vanduul is Eric Jones at $9,600 and Eric Alma or through Eric Almerola and Matt Kenseth at 8,000 the two guys in this tier who will draw within the top 12 spots are Almerola and Matt DiBenedetto. DiBenedetto almost won this race last year as mentioned before he led 93 laps fifth place average running position in that race and that was while he was in bad equipment now he is in the same equipment as Blaney, Keselowski and Logano you transfer Woodbrothers racing but the way that team is described is that they are a Penske team with a separate Twitter account so he's basically a Penske teammate so if DiBenedetto were to draw really well within those top 12 spots you can bet I would give him a lot of thought even though it is risky to use a cheaper play starting at the front because you have less safety up there but DiBenedetto has the upside to win and if not he could still get a really good finish so I've been wrong on DiBenedetto at times this year I've whiffed a couple of times but he's also paid off a couple of times he could still get at least a really good finish I like DiBenedetto a lot and I can definitely see myself going here especially for tournaments probably not for cash games but for tournaments sign me up for DiBenedetto the other guys in this tier who I think have a shot to win are Eric Jones and Clint Boyer Jones is $9,600 Boyer is $9,000 and both those drivers are going to start between 13th and 24th the reason that I'm not as off of them as I was off of Jimmy Johnson is that they're all cheaper so opportunity cost is lower Boyer is $1,000 cheaper Jones $400 cheaper and Jones has been really good at this track he led 260 laps and finished second here in 2017 he was also top 5 in 2018 and both those races in 2017 and 2018 were in rules packages similar to what we'll have this weekend Boyer has four straight top eight finishes and three straight top 10 average running positions at this race he even led 120 laps in one of those so this is a really good tier I think that if DiBenedetto draws high if he draws well enough to lead laps I think I would rank him first in this tier otherwise if he's in the back half of the top 12 I still like him but I probably favor Jones and Boyer uh going with Jones over Boyer just because I think that the the safety in them would be intriguing there for sure I so I think that that's the way I'm viewing these two I think that DiBenedetto Jones Boyer all of the upside to win William Byron and Matt Kenseth are in play just a little bit lower on my list entering the weekend the value plays here are Ryan Newman at $7,700 through Ricky Stannis Jr at $6,200 and here we find some really cheap plays and they're all starting between 13th and 24th my favorite driver in this tier is Tyler Redick and this is the first cup race at Bristol for Redick but he did win here in the Xinnity series last year and he was second in the other race last year in the Xinnity series Redick has also proven how well he can handle himself in the cup series of late he has a top 14 average running position in five of the past six races and one of those races was at Phoenix using the lower spoilers they will have this weekend Redick is $7,300 that means we do not need him to lead laps in order to pay off so he is a driver I will likely use regardless of where he draws between 13th and 24th you could use a similar line of thinking and talk yourself into John Hunter Nemechek who is $6,400 Nemechek did not win at Bristol in the Xinnity series but in nine races there between Xinnity and Shrux he has five top five finishes and he has also been outrunning his equipment in the cup series of late he had really impressive runs in both Darlington and Charlotte coming off of the layoff and that was those were at tracks where equipment matters more than it does at Bristol there is risk here because Nemechek will start in the top 24 and his equipment is not on par with a lot of drivers up there but I think he is a legitimate threat for a top 10 finish so two of the rookies in this tier Tyler Redick and John Hunter Nemechek are going to be really solid value plays we would want them to draw toward the back of this range if we could get them but hey if they draw 13th I'm still going to consider them because they are that good and that worthy of our respect and admiration with how they've run so far this year Chris Buscher, Austin Dillon, Ryan Newman they have all had good runs at this track in the past Buscher had an 11th place average running position in the spring race last year in worse equipment Newman was ninth from an average running position in that race so all them would be options if they were to draw 20th to 24th I just wanted to highlight that Redick and Nemechek specifically are really easy to love for this race the punting tier on Fandals Christopher Bell at $6,000 on down and everyone in this tier is starting 25th or lower so we can rank them straight up and see who has the best place differential upside my two favorites personally are Bubba Wallace and Christopher Bell and Bubba's equipment is terrible because he's had break issues two of the past three races he had break issues at Poconoa a couple years ago and that's concerning because it is something we cannot control it is something he cannot control and we don't want to have a lack of control when playing DFS but Bubba is a good driver and that shows up at Bristol he has had a top 17 average running position in two of his four cup series races here he even led a couple of green flag laps in one of them the equipment breaking is a risk here still but I'm willing to take that risk thanks to the finishing potential that Bubba does have so it's a risk because the the car is bad but the driver is good and I want to bind the drivers at this track for Christopher Bell the equipment is less of a concern it's definitely not great but it was in this car that Deepin Adetto finished second last year Bell was also awesome in Charlotte with back-to-back top 15 average running positions so the equipment came through there and Bell dominated on concrete and the Xfinity series he won two races at Dover he won one at Bristol another runner-up spot at Bristol to boot so he's 6,000 Bubba is $5,000 they are my favorite drivers down here by a pretty wide margin if you want extra access to lap lead lean on those two guys get yourself extra flexibility because I think the finishing potential here is good we want as many laps lead as possible in each of our rosters I would also mention that Ryan Priest is a good option at $5,000 Ty Dillon could get the job done so you've got punting options and I'm very very willing to go down here regularly to get more access to lap lead so Bell Bubba my top two options Priest and Ty Dillon other guys I would turn to at $6,000 or lower in order to get access to more lap lead let's finish up here today with our picks to win for Bristol one guy above $10,000 on Fando one guy below I don't usually pick Brad keselowski because again my model is lower on him I don't like the fact he doesn't dominate so I don't tend to pick him I am going to pick him here though just because I feel like when my model is high on someone it's not usually high on I feel like that's extra noteworthy so keselowski my pick to win above $10,000 but again broadly high in all Penske cars which brings us to the guy below $10,000 which is Matt DiBenedetto he'll be my pick to win down there starting up front awesome in Bristol last year good driver better equipment now he's had in his entire life so Brad keselowski and Matt DiBenedetto my two picks to win for Bristol this weekend but just in general buy all the Penske stock you possibly can before this race that is all the time that we have for today I am excited to see how things play out on Sunday it should be a really fun race and should be good for DFS too once again make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast we are on Spotify Apple podcast Stitcher you name it you can find us and if you like what you hear or if you win some money playing DFS make sure you leave us a rating and review as well if you have any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast check out our UFC podcast for this week if you're listening on Sunday or Friday or Saturday and then make sure you check out next weeks as well leading into UFC 250 big thank you to Calvin Theobald our video producer front of the video side of things here today thank you Cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in hopefully DFS went well for you last night and hopefully it can go well for you once again on Sunday just looking forward to watching more racing at Bristol this has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire