 testers. The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman, call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi, folks, Basil Chapman here on this 28th, Thursday, December. We're looking at the Dow 44, S&P's up five. I'm looking at the E-mini, which E-mini is down $1.50 at 48.32. Look at how important this. You remember yesterday, we were talking about doing my show. I said, we've got to watch closely. This 200-period moving average becomes a magnet that could hit it many times, and finally it hit it, and then it spiked higher, and it went to a peak F. And look at this. This is something for those of you trade futures, just know that if you can learn this pattern, it can save you a ton of money. When there's a very, after the four o'clock bell, if there's a rally and then it just kind of stalls, it can go into a trading range for hours. In this case, it was a trading range between the higher 4840 and a low 4838. I think it was, yep, 38. I mean, come on. Between a four and a six-point trading range, and it stays that way all the way until it broke down just before four o'clock this morning, early this morning, Eastern time. And then look at what happens as it gets closer and closer to this orange 200-period moving average, it loses the repellent, the propellant aspect, and it becomes more a magnet. And as it gets closer, it just grabs it, and it holds it. It grabs it and holds it, grabs it and holds it. Look how many times it hits. How important is this? Not at all when you're up there, but really important as you get closer. And here it is again. So this 4830 level is like a magnet, watch it all day. That's the thing to watch, monitor very closely. Now, let's go through a couple of things. You see this arch formation that goes from an H like this. So I'm always all about straight line up, straight line down, cup formation, arch formation, and a mix. In this case, it's a straight line down, and then it makes an arch formation called a dreaded H, because if it takes out this left side lower, decisively you can go one to one from the arch high, usually if it falls at a peak A or B and go double to the downside. And if it's a green reverse Y formation, if it takes out the left side high, you can go quite a bit high. So just keep that in mind. And now have a look at this. Questions keep coming in. Is Microsoft going to all-time highs? What's happening with Microsoft? Well, look at what's happened with Microsoft. MSFT, it ran all the way to 384.30 on the 29th of November. That's exactly a month ago. Then it pulled back sharply, and then it created an arch formation. What is this an arch formation right here? Held the left side low, and then the lowercase H can become a lowercase M and frustrate the heck out of years. I think it's going to break one way or the other. No, this rectangle formation is so powerful that it can remain the even stock as going to all-time highs just a month ago at 384 pulling back to the low 360s and now just trading at 374. How on earth could this go sideways for so long? Well, it can. It can because it's had a spectacular move going from the low 300s to the 380s. As you just mentioned for clarification, we're along from 338. We've got a core position of taking little bits off on each of the balances, and we're waiting for another one. I don't think it's going to do that right now because the lowercase H is going to a lowercase M, and it'll go remain in the rectangle formation longer than your patients. What it needs to do is decisively close above this peak C right here, that 377.64. I'd say 378.50 or higher. That says good chance now could at least attempt a rally to the 384 level all-time high, but that's what it needs to break this H to M pattern. In the meantime, if it starts to trade under 369, just be careful because the second arch could very much determine whether or not and how much it's going to take out this left side low of 362.90. So that is Microsoft. See the monthly charge stalling. Magnety is still good. Stochastic still good at 85% on balance volumes pullback. Nine is over the 14 prices over the nine, but it's getting closer and closer to tackling that support level. But it is. And in fact, what I like to do is the same sort of thing here. I drew in the rectangle. I'm drawing it in right here. And saying, okay, show me what you got Microsoft, because you've had a spectacular move and now money is flowing out of some of these magnificent seven into the area of the IWM, not necessarily just the IWM, but into the smaller caps. Look, there's a lowercase h that went to a lowercase M with a third h-pattern arch formation. Took each one when it's fractionally lower. So trough A, trough B, trough C. We've got a trough D right now. This is a gray leg A. The Magnety is finding the monthly charge. We've got two days to go today and tomorrow for the month to finish. And if it does, that Magnety will finally have crossed positive. The stochastic is just okay at 40%, not good on balance volumes improving. And the nine is still way under the 14 and needs to close above it. But it is saying, finally you're seeing some money flow into this area that was so weak. And look at this pattern. You can see it much clearer now. If I show it to you in the long, but the narrow rectangle, and I treated the 200-period moving average as a midpoint line. And we had the whole, you know, just a of just a different assessments and ideas based on this sine wave going up and down and up and down. This is the strongest move that it's had to the upside since that move from 162.78 back in June of 22 was screened up to the 199s. And so many times it went to 199, 198. Was that 200 or 199? It was 201.99. And that was the high that was made back in, was that the end of July? No, that was August, the week of the 19th of August. And finally you've got a leg C. This leg C went to a lower low. So this is an engulfing candle. If you cheated as one leg to the upside, like one candle, going from the 162.78 low of June to the Russell 2000s high of 242. That was in August. This is engulfing it. So this is a very positive move. And the stochastic is at 91% and looks to me like it could go a little bit to the flat side rather than to turn down sharply and go under 80%. So that says this is an area to keep monitoring because it's the first time that you've seen some kind of follow through certainly on a monthly basis and definitely on a weekly basis. And you're a little doji candle from yesterday and right now it says slightly overboard. Like so many of the other indices. Now let's just do that at this very moment. Let's go. So here we go. If someone, maybe if you're a trade station, if someone out there is looking at the equal weight, I just can't, I did a whole bunch of work a long time ago and then I reviewed it just recently, the equal weight of different indices and I can't, just I can't find the actual symbol for trade stations. Z says Dow Jones actually 37729. High today has met practice 37775 target. Now in Chapman Wave League team on the Dow Jones. Yeah, Basil, this is a short technique. I'll talk about that in a moment. I'll be right back. That was a two seconds. Basil, Chapman, thank you. Do you short or not? If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. 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The Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just one dollar for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 Hello, we're back and we're looking at a very interesting situation. So what I like to do is to when I'm getting to the refinement area where I'm saying okay I'm everything about what I'm looking at says visually we're overbought but are we technically overbought and that's where I have to assess and say well this is good this is bad whatever it is and let's just do this right now and then what I do is I grab a smaller time frame because that's it's like you know speedboat can turn around a lot quicker than than a ship that's all is to a super tank it takes forever and the United States economy is a super tank at 72 94 72 94 yeah and as a super tanker it means that by the time you recognize that it's turned it's already way way in the distance so let's just talk about it as if we are microcosm and macrocosm so here we go so we're looking at the the Dow has gone so I have a technique and I have webinars that give you a subscriber you know that you've got these webinars many times I've had webinars based on the rectangle formation I call the large rectangle the small rectangle let me just see if I can pop this up right now there it is so essentially it looks like this the characteristics of a rectangle formation you can get the long narrow rectangle I have a whole series of rules that go with this and the large rectangle which could turn into a cup formation or an arch formation there are a bunch of things that go with this what are we looking at here we're looking at the rule that says if after the flagpole high there's a sharp pullback and immediately you start to see whatever price you're following make higher highs and higher lows doesn't have to be higher lows but essentially call it higher lows mostly it's higher highs it can rally to a peak D fourth highest peak in that time frame I used to always say in a shorter time frame but for a year and a half now we've seen so many go in that time frame to just under right on or just above the previous high and then you've got to monitor it based on a halfway marker that is a halfway let me just draw this in right now that would be the halfway I'm doing it visually right there that would be about the halfway marker if that gets broken at any point in the following number of bars that's very negative if it holds you can stay in the sideways trading range for a while so here's the S&P in leg E here's the Dow in leg E here's the QQQ it's already broken out significantly so this is a C that's a D so many of them made their D's and chaff made methodology D is your objective at least a D in a buy mode we can go E F and even G but D is really your objective and here you go up a down arrow up arrow and let's count the waves what was the what was the poetry there what was that let me count the waves A B I think but that's going to turn into a C I got 1132, 1134 now that's a C and that's a D we're in leg D so all of them based on the chaff made methodology are S D or E which says at that particular point be careful because that's when you can get a turnaround you don't have to that's when your yellow light flashes it says all right just be a little careful so we've got the and I want to do the IWM IWM as you do this is way different this in fact is look at that P A P B B went right above that D that's an E I want to double check that I'm calling it an E looks to me like it's a fractional higher high 045 0456 so this is C so this says that the interesting this says that the IWM could be E F but I'm going to call it there's no reason why there shouldn't be a by mode it's very close you're going to have one little pop up to go to the D okay so what would I do in this particular instance and this is exactly what I was saying to subscribers this morning and yesterday that I'm getting really close to at least implementing some kind of a short position at this particular point it would have to be timing for a turnaround but it would also be some kind of insurance because we've got no insurance we've only got long positions now what would I do number one is if I was just dealing with and the question was the Dow so let's go to the Dow INDU what would I do well I don't see anything here that says to me uh oh got to get aggressive you're going to go two times long DXD or the SDOW three times two times short or three times short I don't see that yet just yet in fact as insurance probably I would say right here since we are long the diamonds and we're along the UDOW three times long um I would only I would only treat it as a kind of insurance I'd maybe start a position in the DOG which is one-to-one short so you're really not going to make very much it's just kind of an insurance policy with DOG going down let's go to the troughs now trough A trough B trough C trough D trough A trough B trough C leg D yeah so this is saying to me um the the on balance volume is really close to a balance the stochastics come off it's low at 7.32 but it's single digits the MACD histogram storage improved so it says to me there's a chance that we are really close to some kind of a rebound but look at this from 20 29 67 30 is the is the pink nine-breed moving average in the DOG um oh I haven't we did that once 31.32 and then we got stopped out that was quite a while ago it was back in early December and look the black 14 period exponential moving average of 32.25 that's way up to get this to turn around significantly you've got to have and I'm going back to this I know it's a bit of a pain but I have to do it if I can actually find it why is it up there right here let me see if I'm clicking on the right button yep there it is and I said I'm only putting this very faintly I don't have any real sign of dark news cloud cover there's just I mean you know Marcus loved to climb a wall of worry but every once and again there there is no nothing to worry about that's when you've got to worry but what are you worrying about it's really tough interest rates of down at the lows dollar down at the lows um politically what have we got we've got the end of the year coming to the beginning of the year this is going to be a really interesting year politically don't want to get into that right now but there will be time we'll have no choice so all I can say is something's going to come out of there could it be geopolitical absolutely it could be geopolitical could it be the the the the Suez Canal um yeah could could that be shut down yeah a whole bunch of things could happen they haven't happened yet so all I'm going to say is I would probably do this to be as you could use timing timing says either later today or tomorrow in preparation of some kind of selling that comes in early in the in January the first week or two you could start to take a position I don't want to rush this I want to go to because your question is a question that I've been asked a lot and I have asked myself almost every day every hour of every day for the last two weeks I'll be getting closer to a pullback one kind of pullback currencies commodities and 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traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv so we were looking at the rectangle formation what was my expression a long narrow rectangle formation will last a lot longer than your patients and probably a lot longer than your money because look it's just stayed in this range and this is a one-minute chart and it goes all the way from 9 30 this morning to where we are now that's 10 30 that's 60 bars and yet we stuck in this range just about to test the upper part of that range on balance volume says it would be a little careful yet because it and this breaks to the upside sharply it could stall right here so okay so let me just get back to the story and the story is and and what i said to uh john asked the question um who asked the question about the about the dow there are three things that i would do right now one is as insure as insurance that's two separate things if it's timing a timing model i don't i don't have anything right now other than my my one indicator that says this is overboard and there should be a pullback but that pullback could be a hundred points 200 points just a pullback it could be 500 points could be 700 points that doesn't give you the indication of how deep it is other things do so all it says is we are really close to maybe an early January pullback that's number one number two is um that weekly charge especially since we're already Thursday and we're above the doji candle of last week in a spectacular move that's gone from the 32 30227 level straight up to single leg to this leg where we are right now in the weekly chart the way it's the way it's acted with a stochastic flat and the MACD is still expanding it says you can get a pullback of even a third you could go all the way down to 26 200 36 200 and still be in a really strong buy mode and the monthly charge same thing so all i'm saying is i don't get anything right now then just visually looking you say oh man that looks very overboard while looking overboard the stochastic notes overboard it's just doing what it's doing it's me that's saying hey you look overboard that doesn't mean to say it's overboard it just looks overboard the one indication that says it is overboard is the unbalanced volume the stochastic those at 92 percent so what i'd said is i would look at a put position for the third week of January so there's a monthly put position in the diamonds for the 19th of it's a friday the 19th that's that's the second part of this whole thing the third is the semiconductors are starting to slow down on the upside i've still got this as a leg e if you do a measured move from the the high that was made about nine sessions ago let's just go to that that was the session of december the 15th look at guess your vertical line the MACD it was good the stochastic was very strong in the 90 i think it was 94 percent area unbalanced volume was a little bit overboard to pull back relative strength a little gray line this is the daily channel left was starting to pull back and it's much weaker now than it was so that's a bit of a clue right there relative strength but i'm looking at this and i'm suggesting and let's go to the monthly so let's go to the 120-minute chart remember all of them had already gone to a d except for the q's so this is at a peak f right here this is the sw smh's semiconductor market vector semiconductor etf and look at this we've got an a we've got a b we've got a c we've got a d but we haven't yet got a leg e and that's just saying on the 120-minute chart that we are very very close to a digestive phase a digestive phase says you remember we had this right yet for this very ugly candle we were short that morning and then it plunged we were short because we were long the s o x s and we we had nice gains and we got out of it and then it started to gap up and move higher and that's just saying that within the context of now i could do something else look here we go left side right side price time match here we go right there that's the low right there so that's my bar that says if i use the plumb line right here this is my plumb line the midpoint that i'm anticipating the same number of bars to the right will get us back to where we were then let's do this click and you can see it's already taken it out make that green so the only way i can see right now for me to have confidence and just not have it as insurance saying look we could in insurance you say i might not get broken into and i'd be very pleased not to be broken into because it's always a lot more costing than whatever the insurance pays out and very cumbersome and very it just is very unpleasant but if i mean i have a problem i've got insurance and that's why you have insurance but you you don't really want to use the insurance but it's there so let me look at this right here so that's right there is the one-to-one to the to the right side we've already just modestly taken it out and the mcd's flat stochastics at 83% good the uh let me just do this here the 90s all over the 14 i don't even have a sign here in the smh's the semi's to say whoa sharp pullback coming i do have a sign that says within this cup formation the technicals here are still just as strong as they were before therefore any pullback should hold and yes the sign that it says the green nine-period moving average which is at 173.50 and where are we now we're at 176.62 three points that's not even two percent right so all i can say is i don't want to get in front of the train and there's there's a fourth thing that you can do and just say you know what if the dow pulls back 230 points on a closing basis preferably a closing basis but it could even be in today from here it hasn't had moves like the 64 maybe once or twice in the last a month and a half i want to start a short position and i could do a very aggressive short position by going three times short the sd ow with a very tight stop and just let it run and there's and then it'll run up because it's buying the short position on the long side so you can use a trading stop and just say hey take me out if you don't take me out and keep moving higher i'm happy with that but it is an anticipation of something that on a purely technical level um i just certainly in the smh's now let me do something else because believe me what you're asking the question that you're asking is a question a lot of us are asking when do we pull back is it the first week of January does the buying does the selling which is holding off until the beginning of January immediately is this one of those times in January the 14th i think it was is it January the 14th yeah the 2000 was the top for the doubt three months late was the smh's and the and the and the s and p we've seen that often tops roll sequentially bottoms come uniformly at the bottom i've always said that if you look at all the v shape bottoms they're right they're within sync with it they're within a day or two of one another tops can unfold because they are different characters it's a different character it isn't that hysterical selling climax they're buying climaxes based on tech i'll be back in a moment trying to get some approaches the gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the london otc market the us futures market and the shanghai gold exchange the gold report tom o'brien publishes his weekly gold report every monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the xAU hui gdx the dollar bonds the south african rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to tom o'brien's gold report newsletter now 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the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz so everything that we're doing here in the one minute chart or the five minute chart and then all the ten minute chart really is like a daily weekly monthly chart and look what's happened you've gone green in the nine-period moving average in the five minute chart you've got that already in the one minute chart and you've got it in the ten minute chart that just says if you want to fight the tape to me this is the tape um then anticipate that you aren't going to go leg c to b c and then just a modest d at least in the five minute chart which would be maybe a leg b extension or a c in the in the ten minute chart but until it really takes a dive and breaks this 200-period moving average of 4830 forwards at 4837 right now and then slams through 4831 so far the bias has been to see what we've seen all month uh six weeks actually um where there's buying of every dip all right so that you you want to fight the tape you've got to do it with a methodology so as i'm looking at it right now and you remember what we said about the microsoft position sideways and to the changes and that that's already um now we're talking about a month right so these things can last a lot longer than your patience so i gave you four particular aspects that i'm looking at here or let's call it analyses and what am i waiting for i'm waiting for the clue which will be the smh's to take a dive under 170 in january and that's at 176.62 if it closes under 170 on the daily chart that's going to suggest to me quite strongly that the way that the technicals deteriorate if they do in the weekly chart is going to give me clues for the rest of january so you need the shorter term to be able to get to the more intermediate term but at this particular point even though my eyes is whoa we are so close to turning down look the candles are getting a little bit smaller yeah you've got one little pop to the upside but basically it's a struggle you've had your major thrust to the upside and the weekly chart is a little different this is already a leg c in the week as opposed to the dow and all the others are still in a leg a um it's worked harder so this would be the clue so that for right now on a very short term basis the smh's up 68 cents if they close i don't want to intraday stuff if it closes at 176.54 right now and go to the hundred and for the 120 minute chart let me just double check here i think that might 175 176.75 and today's high is 176.73 another three cents and it extends above that so this is already double top ish right now just i'm doing about the 120 minute chart uh but all the technicals are still good so all i'm saying is if you want to clue i'd rather be late than early and even though i'm personally with my subscribers we might anticipate something in the in those in these indices by tomorrow that's an anticipation with a very tight stop saying we know exactly what we're doing don't even touch it if you're even hesitant it's only for those people who are considering that they want to play some downside with the potential that over the long weekend it's too late to do anything because Tuesday we just gap down huge i don't even know if it's going to happen i'm saying that's a scenario if you want to entertain that scenario there are ways to do that but you could also suddenly have a gap to the upside i think it's less likely of a huge gap to the upside you can have a move to the upside but not a huge gap to the upside at this particular point as things stand right now so your risk is one of the percentages and your gains are very quick multiples of that percentage if you're right so it's yes of course it's a gamble but it's a gamble that you are prepared to do under the conditions very strict conditions and here's what we're looking at look nvidia stuck in a trading range it's in at a at a it made a peak be at 505.48 all-time high is very rarely failed at a peak be in the daily chart it's almost a d e f or something like that so now you've got another high underneath it which is already at a peak c i suspect that if we do anything with the next day or two we might just pop over 504.33 and stick between 505.48 and 504.33 somewhere in there for leg d and then we'll see what happens starting next week but that weekly chart um at this particular point you're saying look at that in tapwave inside track repellent zone and it's been a repellent zone for quite some time respect it but at the same time know that you are right there you're bumping up against the door that says i might break to the upside i haven't yet and because of that i'm just saying this is a clue to say it's struggling a little bit that the semis have had a fantastic move to the upside over the last year since since the 108.12 low that was made in august of 2022 is three times higher more than that at 497.68 and it's just getting a little tired so because of that i'm saying if you're preparing i've spent a lot of time talking about something that the evidence at this particular point until we see the nvidia which is already stalled and gone kind of sideways for a while trading can't just be a one-time thing it's got to be trading in the four below this red candle right here the candle of the 20th of december uh for 80.98 it has to be trading in 479 so that's almost 20 points lower if it starts to trade 20 points lower without taking out 507 as an all-time high um then i'm saying oh okay you need nvidia you need some others advanced micro devices uh leg d to the to the upside all-time high 164 back in november of 2021 here it is at 149 that's quite a way to go so that just says it gives you a room in 2024 to be moving higher very short term once again nothing wrong yet but that's a really that's when you want to be looking at and saying well what would it take for this to turn down and what it would take would be some kind of it's a 149 it's the same candle that candle of that wednesday the 20th of december that low of 135.37 a close under that says whoops shorter term change change of trend and that means the weekly child will finally digest so that's a big ask and all i can say is that i don't have anything right now i don't i haven't wanted to step in front of this train we still only have long positions and um i just have to let them play out and we're all mixed we're all over the show in terms of diversity and all right i just wanted to do this i had a question is gdx could you just do the gdx please yeah the gdx trading right now at 31.80 down 18 cents that whole 32 to 33 area um has been very strong existence for quite some time so as i see it this is good action it's not great action it's just good action what would be great action and you know i've got a plus sign and the stochastics at 83 in the weekly and the make these good nines of it i really don't have a choice i have to put an up arrow this is in a buy mode and it should go to higher highs it should test the high 32s low 33s over the next week or two so let's just put that in there you okay but the monthly chart is still just kind of sideways and i'll be back thousand 82 sbs up 11 tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger zen hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the tiger's den available to all tigers and tigers is for just one dollar for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the tiger's den you can look over the shoulders of tom obrien and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live tiger tv programs and join an interactive trading community with 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to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv so bbaibigbear.ai holding uses AI for skating and machine learning really good move up 10% to now up 22 cents at 2.33 it broke that 200 period moving average resistance and this is an overlapping peak a b right there and a b right there so this is a c this is very powerful and that just says that the stochastic at 80 percent mac d good everything's good the the blue nine period moving on balance volume i'm sorry is a little overboard so it could have a pullback but this does look like 248 to 252 will be the next move to the upside where if it's in leg c that's very positive it pulls back and doesn't leave d it's getting a little tired great move the last four sessions yes congratulations dan so just as i'm about to wrap up i'm hoping everything works out for a session tomorrow but in the meantime i wish everyone a happy or wonderful wonderful new year and a healthy new year and a successful one say thank you for Steve Rhodes and in the meantime check out my book called my dating newsletter and uh gotta watch this very closely i'll be getting a little toppy yeah i think we're getting a little toppy do we pull back in January