 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. The technicians are looking at the Dowdown 5 at 34,458 after that spill from 35,679, the August 1st high. You've come right down to what's the low yesterday. Oh, I didn't type that in. I thought ahead. I think it was 34,248. Let me just check. 34, the low that is. Yeah, 34,248. And so it's attempting to rally. There should be some kind of residual strength to the upside. I'm looking at kind of an arch formation, possibly forming. Most importantly, look at this weekly chart here. The weekly chart is, let me squeeze it a little bit so you can see it. Oops, wrong chart. Squeeze this one a little bit more. There it is. So this one shows you that it's basically the prices so far be walking. The black 14-period moving average has been the springboard for the line. And now it's back to the 14-period moving average is just sitting there quietly. I have to tell you that in my webinar tomorrow night at 4 o'clock for subscribers and you become a subscriber, check out the front page of TFNN. I always forget to do this. I shouldn't do it because it's important to be able to tell people what's available. Yeah, TFNN. There we go. So opening call subscriber webinar. There it is. Wednesday, August the 23rd, 4 o'clock to 5.30 p.m. It will be archived if you can't make it on a lot of people. It's difficult time, but anyway, it will be live. The reason why I also wanted to keep it live is especially with Nvidia coming out with earnings. I wanted it to be live because I want you to also because I'm showing patterns that work in any time frame at any point. They're active. They're active. They're cells, the core, the fractal of human nature just represented in a fixed point of time, which moves obviously every tick. But at the same time, these patterns just repeat over. Look at this beautiful arch formation on the left. Look at that beautiful plumb line right at the top. Look at this flat stochastic over 80% in the 90% area, giving you no clue that there could be a turnaround. Look at the MACD doing well, and yet there was one indicator for me together with a couple of other shorter-term ones that said, hey, this is the day that you can have an opportunity to go short because if you don't get it here with that nine-period moving average, the green line, let me just show you here, the nine-period moving average so strong. This is what we're talking about right there. It's going to take a while for it to turn down. You can see what happens each time. And once before, the last one it turned down looked like it was going to go from green to pink, and it never did. And if you look at the QQQ talk about pink, it was pink for one or two days back in May, April the 26th and 7th. And that was it from the time that it went to a buy signal on the 16th of March. It hasn't yet to this moment that we're talking about. This is August the 1st. It hasn't gone pink except for two days, one day. You could have just sat there and said, I'll give it one day's rest, and the next day it's back to green. And now you're seeing something very different. Now you've changed course. This pink line is negative, and it can stay negative for a while. So I just want to show you what we're looking at here. Let's go back to our story. And our story is that within the context of arch formation, look at this plum line. From that gap I chose to put the plum line there and see if there's a measured move from the left side number of bars to the right side. I call it bar symmetry or left side, right side price time match. Too many words, bar symmetry is even better. It kind of explains that you're going from one point down, then back to that point in the same number of bars, or from one point up to another, back to the starting point in the same number of bars. And there it is. It was a day early yesterday to went to that 34-248 level. So that's it. And here's another technique. Inside where it's target repellent, sorry, support line, pink dash on the way down. And look at how it held, held, held. And then it got pierced. And today it held, sorry, yesterday it held great. And today is trying to rally off that level. It's struggling. And the reason is, the reason why I don't want to be thinking just yet of going back into adding, into a longer term down position. We still have the call from October law plus the March law of 2020. The reason why we're only having quick trades with tiny percentage loss, if we're wrong, is that this arch formation should become like right there, should just become a bounce and then fail. And then we start to see if it takes out the left side low in another dreaded H pattern. He has one dreaded H. He has another dreaded H. What's the dreaded H? I'll be talking about all these patterns. They repeat over and over and over again. There's the dreaded H. Straight line down, straight line down, arches over, goes to a peak. A or B fails and takes out the left side low. You can go a lot lower. Straight down makes an arch to an A. I just looked too busy so I took it out. A takes out the left side low. That was good. It says, oh, you could bounce and you bounce and you went above the previous high. And then you made another H pattern with a lower low and that just kept plummeting. And now we haven't even had the opportunity to see a gray leg A in the last two sessions. The days younger could happen. So these are patterns that we're going to be looking at all the time. Let's go on with the analysis. We've got the S&P. The S&P did exactly the same thing. In this case, I didn't use the plum line of the high because it looked to me when I was over here that it could get there in a shorter space of time. So I used a particular candle to go to the left side low of 43.28.82. That was a low, oops, that was a close. 43.28.08 was the low of the 24th of June. It goes all the way to 45.07.07. A couple of doji candles there. It turns down, gaps down. And then three days ago, it goes to 43.33.31. A higher low, it says, you know what? You can bounce now to either a gap or a doji candle icon on the left side on the higher level or a 9-period moving average or a 14-period or a peak. Anyway, 44.22 will be the challenge to get to the pink 9-period moving average. I think it's still going to try for that. There's been so much selling pressure. There's a little bit of residual strength. And look at the weekly chart. The 9 is still way over the 14, just like the Dow is. I have nothing yet in the weekly chart. So look at the QQQ. This is a little different because it's been testing the 14-period moving average. And it made a high, much earlier. It made a high back of around the 27th of July or so, the 387.98. There's your cup formation and fails, makes the dreaded H pattern, takes it out, makes another one, and another one, and another one. And now this should be a bigger rally. It's trying to get past the pink 9-period moving average and then the 14. I think the MACD is still very weak. Stochastic is still only at 17%. On balance volume did give a nice little V-shape turnaround. I don't know if that's a recovery or not, but it is a nice start. IWM was in 2000. It didn't get to the left side low. It did hit the pink 9-period. Capric inside bridge. Target support line. Now it just has to go to the right. It's because the S&M just doesn't think it's up. Five cents of 1.50. I'll be back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. 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Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Hi folks, let me just show you this as it's happening. As I say, tomorrow in my webinar, if I can, I'm going to be on the news live. Doesn't matter if they're doing the webinar, anything that will be proven live. So, in the meantime, I just wanted to show you this is the one-minute e-mini, S&P e-mini, if I can just expand that. So, a question always comes in. In my wave count, where do you start the count? Well, this is a leg down. Forget what it is, it doesn't matter. This is a leg e to the downside. You can't start the wave count until on the right side of that bar, you've made a higher low, because after all, this could keep going down. It's not a trough until it makes that little v-shaped pattern with a higher low. So that means this cannot be a leg a here. That is wrong. No bar cannot be the high bar except when you get to a Pd. That's where you get the instant restart in the Chapman-Wayne methodology. Remember, all of this, I found out trial and error. For most of you would never even dream, to even think of, you know, to find out what the mistakes are and how much it costs you to find these things out, all these techniques that we discussed. You know, it's the school of hard knocks. Then you go to the graduate school of hard knocks. Then you go to the postgraduate school of hard knocks. And it never ends because the market is the market. You are not the market. You are just trying your best to get through the streets of Gibraltar without hitting the rocks. So this is what we're looking at. That becomes a Pk. That becomes a Pb. That becomes a C1. And because it's not by one quarter of a point, it goes in quarter points. It has a made-a-leg D. I give it a C1, C2, which has the same effect as a D, except when the 9p moving average is so strong, you can expect that C1, C2 might still go to a D. What I said in the den, based on the five-minute chart, is that it had gone under the 200-period exponential from this Pg-double-top. The green 9p moving average has turned pink. It's still pink. And so far, this trough E went and tested. It's testing right now the 4418 200-period moving average of the five-minute chart. Remember, each one is going to have a different 200-period moving average number. The number on the 10-minute chart is 4410. This is eight points higher. So I said 4420 to 4423 is going to be the difficult. That's the area that the S&P has to break out of. And if it does that, I think it's free for a little while to start moving to the upside. That's the way I'm looking at it. And as we're talking, it's attempting to do it. All right. That's what I'm going to be doing. Maybe if I can do something as exciting as this after the bell. Question came in. I'm going to go to write to the questions. I haven't finished all the charts or anything. TFC, could I please look at it? Trust Financial Core. TFC is the sum of 2837 down 24 cents. So this went to a peak. This is interesting. I always go back to the lowest, most obvious low. So I'm not going to start my count here. I have to start it here, even if there was a D. Off the D, you can start a brand new count. So that's your low that was registered early in May in the 25s. It goes peak A. Then it goes peak B. Then it gives you peak C. And it gives you a peak D. And it gives you a sell signal from a buy signal to a buy mode to a sell signal and sell mode. And then what does it do? You get a favor to students, the CASTIC, down on the single digits. The MACD is holding well. The on balance volume is holding well. The pink turns to green. And you've got yourself an up arrow here. Maybe an up arrow. I'm going to put it in. Maybe I'm wrong. And it goes back to A, B. Successively higher peak gets alphabetized sequentially. And here you go, 33.99, 30. Oh, 30. Was that 29? 30.99 goes to a high of 30.98. Ha! You see, that's the reason why I checked it out. I've done this so many times that I know when it's a possibility to miss a peak. That's your only obligation. The Chapman wave is to get each successively high peak. Then we go to a peak E, not a D. A buy signal gets upgraded to a buy mode, meaning that it should go to at least a D, four higher peaks. But it can go higher. But add D, as you can see, add D. Other things happen. Hey, is it time to sing my song? Maybe tomorrow I'll sing my song. Chapman wave. Buy at the low and sell at the high. There we go. And here's your cup formation. And this is, oh, this is another example. I had one earlier today. I'm going to use this one. This is the Chapman wave cup and ladle pattern. Why is it a cup and ladle? Because if you broke from the previous high of peak D, you had a sharp pullback. Started a new cup formation. And that cup formation said, if it takes out that left side high in leg C, expect that it could still go to a D and then pull back. And it must hold that support on the left side at peak D as a base. Look at this. There's your left side, right side, price time, price time symmetry, bar symmetry, right there. And it broke it in leg C. And what does it do? It goes to a D, pulls back, tests the break, and it pops it to an E. And now it's pulled back. Now I could do the same thing. I don't want to take time right now because this is the Eiffel Tower. Straight up, straight down. And you've got yourself a cell mode. And now the question is, I don't know. You know, I don't know if you are in this at all, but I'm going to tell you right now that the financials are under duress. And that's the reason why I'm quite prepared to hold the short positions that we have in the down and the SMHs. We missed that one. I was impatient with the Toll Brothers. It was perfect. And then it plunged without us in it. We had it and it just got stuck down. Anyway, so I don't like this pattern at all. And it seems to me that this left side low, at some point in the month of September, there's a chance that 2556 is going to be tested. I would hope, and hope is as Larry likes to say, hope should not be part of your vernacular when you're talking about the stock market with us. You know, all of us hope for things. You do it and you hope that it's going to work. But hope can't be your plan. The plan is that you've got your position and you hope it works because you've done your homework. But in the meantime, back at the ranch, this is now going to a leg. Is that a one penny below it is? Let me just check. 30.96, 30.95. What am I doing? Oh, 30.95 and 30.93. That's what I thought. Okay. So that's an E. That's a trough F. Now, I'd be real careful. And not only that, I would say to you that if, if you are long, but you're still in the money, I'd take a little bit off in any case. Just because why? Because if this does rally, it's going to take a while for it to really bull steam to the upside. You'll have plenty of time to get to add to your position or to get in. I would, I'd be rather looking at this as a potential, not a short. I had $28. I wouldn't treat this as a short right now. Too much has been done to the downside. It was in the 35s. So be careful. That's all I'm going to say. It's in the same area with Bank of America. We've had every year for the last seven years or so. This is the past six or eight months. Haven't touched it. I just don't like it. And Bank of America to me is kind of a benchmark because it has a price. It went to the 200 p.m. moving average and it's just plunged from there. This is tough stuff. And that's the reason why I think we're going to have a little longer of a consumption. 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It did make a peak F in the five area just under five then it plunged down to the 140s and now it's at 202. This is a new A, B, C1, C2. It's acting really well. You want to strategize and keep this look. The stochastic is nearly at 80% in the weekly chart. It's a 76, 79 in the daily. This is acting really well. Obviously, if in this environment this is actually gapping up and holding the gaps. Yes, I think, but it's a very low price stock. For those of you who have trouble with the low price stocks you must not touch this one because it looks to me like the 184 200 period exponential moving average is going to be proved as a bounce point for a little while to come still. So I think you'll have time to get into this. Give it a little, it's had a great move and needs a little bit of a consolidation but I can see that it wants to go a little higher but most importantly what you really want to be looking for is the 192 level. Make it 192 to 184 which is the 200 period moving average so the 14 and 200 period moving averages are key support levels. I'd be real careful just in terms of getting into a low price stock that's had a spectacular move in a very short period of time. It's in the area that seems to be having some veracity. I mean in the sand anything to do with paving anything to do with infrastructure and I don't know about you but everywhere you go around here you can't make any appointment for a particular time because the amount of work that's being done is quite amazing and I'm not complaining, believe me, I like that because I want the roads to be as best as they can. So in the meantime back at the ranch this is in play and if anyone's looking at it and say hey this looks really interesting you can nibble and keep it in your chest box just put it away and just keep it and look at it and maybe in two months time say oh really instead of being at 160 maybe it's at 260 or 310 because it has the capabilities making high highs and high lows in the data. The weekly is improving and that's also a very good sign. Okay, I did that. Now the other question I had was where did it go? Where did it go? Could I look at oh, NVIDIA So the question came in Hi Basil, do you see the upcoming NVIDIA as a sell the news opportunity and I was going to say the answer is absolutely yes but person asked me has done very well by not doing anything as far as I know by not doing anything like the short side being very careful being mostly on the long side of being cautious but very well thought out and what I said is it's just I'm with you. In fact this rally up to the high today of 41 87 I was kind of busy at the time doing other things just notating getting my webinar for tomorrow just getting a whole bunch of new charts that I wanted in it and I was hoping that it would have held into this hope and this is a very legitimate hope I wanted to see NVIDIA whole today have a bit of a move up tomorrow and we were going to add to our short position one of the short positions we had great gains but I had a stop on that extra position and it got stopped out for a very nice gain and went much lower this morning that's on the SOXS that's three times short semis and I wanted to get back into that by tomorrow why? because when I look at these charts now this is a really tough thing for me 401 was the low back in June before it made this this is I forgot to put this in this was the perfect chaplain wave cup and ladle formation A to B and C spirals up goes to peak C1 C2 which is the equivalent of a D pulls back and what does it do not only just test the breakout line it takes out the 401 so it holds the 401 low that means this leg B that I've drawn in here is not a B it is now the it was the incomplete C1 C2 now it's done the D I'm quite satisfied to say that there's a really good chance that NVIDIA actually disappoints now I could be we don't have a position in NVIDIA we have it in the SMH's we're still short from just about a point from the top and that's going to say that way but at the same time everything about this and there it is I mean yesterday I drew this in I said this is the we'll talk about this tomorrow remember the pattern I was talking about that I discovered years ago the chaplain wave falling axe formation leads to a chaplain wave parallel extension cup formation what does it do you go to a D E or F at the top you start to make lower low lower highs and much lower lows it always surprises me it just kind of forms a base and then it rattles and takes out the cone the declining cone up a trend line and that says you can get something like a one to one extension to the upside which means in the same number of bars or the same angle the degree of angle it goes to the upside sometimes it is a one to one it isn't always sometimes it's more than that but it tells you you're breaking out and you're probably going to test all the peaks on the left side well it tested that one and test the 480.88 high peak C1 C2 in the chaplain wave and we'll be talking about this tomorrow and explaining it in great detail so what you've got is the cup formation so now this there it is right it's a lopsided cup what I call a gravy cup and it's broken out to the right side like this oh wrong one breaks out to the right side like that right gravy cup lopsided but you remember what I was talking about yesterday the falling exformation is in the daily and it's in the weekly and I'm anticipating that there's going to be a break of that line well now we've got to D methodology says a buy signal to a buy mode should go to a peak D the fourth highest peak that's I'll have to sing the song so the song goes like this the market this is my song the market goes up the market goes down supposed to buy at the low and sell at the high snap snap and you know what we tend to do we buy at the high and we sell at the low chaplain wave is what you need you buy with a stoke that's a stochastic and the old MACD that's the MACD follow the price and wait for a peak higher highs is what you seek the wave goes to A where is it the wave goes to A and then to B there we go wave goes to A and then to B even the anticipated C and D that's when it flashes a cautionary light but all you got to do is what was it all you got to do is make your stars real tight suddenly it goes to E and F a bell ring so loud it can make you deaf so what you going to do which way to go you sell at the high let me do the down I and D you you sell at the high peak F and you buy at the low alright great coming up down to 110 we'll be back gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market the US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange the gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds the South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com Tom O'Brien renowned for his expertise in the financial markets has designed market insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades Tom publishes his daily market insights newsletter every market day before the market open along with updates when warranted stay ahead of the game with Tom's real time analysis and trade 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consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ so as I said peak F top right there all the ingredients that I look for and it came down there's your dreaded H1 dreaded H5 haven't even had a third one yet so I followed this nine period moving average and it tells you that there should be more selling to come even if there's a really strong bounce I don't see the ingredients for a big rally just yet so in other words to the answer with the NVDA if I had said yes right yet to short or I don't know if you would have shorted how you would have played it in Nvidia that would have been great because now you have a huge cushion but it means that you'd have to be watching it all night what if let's just imagine so tomorrow there's a little bit of a bounce in Nvidia instead of being down from the higher 481 down to 461 20 points of the high it closes today maybe 467.35 right and then tomorrow it has a little bit of a bounce in anticipation of the news but nothing as big as it just had and in fact towards the end of the session it's down a little bit and then out of the they come out with this news whatever and to me I'm looking at this and I'm saying I think that there's something going on here I believe a lot of people are saying to themselves you know there are so many things going on in the electricity field I'm not sure if I really want a battery driven car right now or if I do I'm going to go very slowly into it I don't want to overpay for it because whatever I overpay I'm not saving anything in the money I might be doing something for the environment I don't believe that either because I think the energy aspect in the environment is going to have a huge consequence and if you think that the grid is going to be able to hold I mean in New York are they banning they want only electrical they banning gas and we've got a gas stove it's done the job it's great and it's inexpensive it's just I mean really so all I'm saying to you is that I think there's going to be a glut of chips in this particular format right now as in this phase that we're in and I don't know if NVIDIA is going to be able to talk about looking out as as they abduently as they did before the expectation might be a little bit there it says earnings tomorrow afternoon after the bell so I would absolutely agree with that whole thing but he's been so conservative and successfully conservative in trading for the last year or so I'm just saying why would you want to be correct overnight but not be able to get out of your position overnight in the morning you are way against the trend why risk that why risk 7 to even 14 or 15 percent when if NVIDIA comes out with lousy earnings or at least great earnings but a lousy expectation or great great earnings oh no lousy earnings a great expense whatever it is if the results on Thursday going into Friday's close is that NVIDIA is down below 450 you've got plenty of time to short you've missed yes the very best but you've also taken away that huge risk that you have that's the only reason anybody else I would have said you know what right here at a new recovery high it's actually an all-time high start a position and most of the people that asked me would have been in options but I didn't get that message because I said we're holding off for the day all right so with that said down's down 122 S&P's only down $1.71 down's way weaker this is the reason why we wanted to stay in our short position now here's the big thing and the whole for instance we have a position that we had really successful gains very small position with very successful and then one smallish loss and we went in yesterday I think it was yesterday or the day before and it held well it held the stop and then got in today got almost to the point where we got in then close a little bit under it today to win above where we got in and now it's down and I'm saying to myself that confirms for me that this whole area of the battery operation let's just see stem we don't have that anymore we had great gains in that a long time look at this stem energy solution storage EV solar I mean tell me what doesn't sound fantastic except it was once at 51.29 and now it's at $5.08 it did a double top at the 200 period exponential moving average stem ink and here it is down at $5.08 let's look at Tesla because this would be the benchmark for us Tesla's had already it's pulling back from the high it's at 234 hit the 200 period moving average balancing off that I just keep an eye on Tesla it doesn't make another H pattern does it fail start to break the 210 level support I think there's a possibility for that so that whole area the batteries EVs anything like that I think it's kind of fraught with some tension FX I was a question could I do that yep FX I made a peak D in the chapter wave methodology remember these where you got to be careful look at that turn around the permit formation up down making a lower low to the 25s now it's at 2610 now I think this whole China thing I've been saying that for a while I think that's a problem XP EV I think was the next question XP EV had a try around the early this morning designs develops manufacturers smart EVs expand I don't remember do you say the X Spang Inc I don't know how to pronounce it someone will tell me one day and look at this 2069 now it's trading at 1568 I mean you've got to just be real careful in this market right now one other thing that I want natural gas natural gas so so that rally that we can remember I said this is the pattern that has the potential looking out on the short term I said I didn't want to say anything on the short term but looking out I said yes you could start looking at this maybe a small position maybe even option a cool option looking out let's go to UNG it's a little bit better UNG so this pattern with this inverted V it's like a like a V dreaded H pattern says that if at any point in the next two weeks if we don't take out 660 the low 658 isn't it 660 660 was the low on the third of August if we don't take that out but in fact can start to meander to the side testing 720 just once in the next six trading sessions then I think the weekly chart making higher highs and higher lows for the very first time in a concerted way with the MACD strong and stochastic okay on balance not good says to me looking out into late September early October I think we can see the 850 area to 910 and that kind of was the lookout period that I was talking about but make that 660 is going to be really important take that out and I'm saying whoa what am I saying whoa the next thing we're looking at here is questions came in yes PANW Palo Alto Networks had a huge good earnings etc had a big spike yesterday giving back some of it it's down 7 to 233 but on the 200 period moving average at 262 202 and then what is new spiles I mean 202 what was the low the low was 117 and in one day it goes to 242.09 that's a massive move but look at that island reversal so I'm watching this closely I'll be back $100,000 down $1.51 a bifurcated market attention traders and investors are you ready to elevate your game in the stock market on August 23rd join Basil Chapman the mastermind behind the renowned Chapman wave methodology and a subscriber exclusive 90-minute webinar from 4 to 5 30 p.m. Eastern dive 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just not going anywhere Crudall is holding quite well actually but I think it's getting into a very strong resistance area the TBT which is the inverse of the T-LT is trading at just on 36 and it's made a doji candle high here at a leg F maybe a peak F there could be an alternate count but I think that the T-LT is getting right to the point where there should be some kind of a balance I'm just calling it a balance and it's got the left side, right side price time-match here in the weekly chart for $9184 I think this is exactly the area where there should be at least some kind of a yield pullback we'll see about that so in the meantime back at the ranch let's follow what we've got here and we're going to be watching that Nvidia action very very much because will the SMHs get back to the $161.17 all-time high I think there's going to be a digestive phase coming up and I do expect that something's going to happen going into the Friday close that says hey that was a great balance but now we're doing a digestive phase in the SMHs another digestive phase we'll see about that in the meantime say to you a great programming coming up because oh I'll be back at one o'clock for Larry Larry lost his voice yesterday and I'm helping out today you know that we try to do our best just to keep things going see you in a little while have a great day