 Last session of the day, and then I guess there's a panel at the end of the day or what do we have? Keep everyone guys are passionate you want to go to the end. Awesome We'll see all right well Hopefully we'll have a little bit of fun today this is an opportunity to run through a simulation where we can be It's going to be going from all sorts of chaotic to even more chaotic here as we get going so the Confusion from confusion to chaos So this is a value uncertainty game My name is Todd little VP of product development for IHS They took data analytics company Let's see if this is going Okay, I was gonna look at the jelly beans we do that if we still have time at the after finishing this We may do a little jelly bean experiment, too So how many of you were in the talk yesterday myth busters quite a few So I left you with a click cliffhanger here now what so we're gonna do a little simulation of sort of the now what so They're just a quick review of what I just went through yesterday First of all, we had a test. We did a bunch of tests. We did a bunch of tests of different things Up and then we looking at whether we actually have how good are we at estimation? A little bit of gratuitous humor here Go through this quickly little stories. We basically suck at estimation. I think we know that So is it understood? No, we are not very good at estimation. We're gonna experiment some of that today Significantly in estimation accuracy significantly improves as the project progresses is basically the cone of uncertainty That's pretty much not true either estimation uncertainties pretty much consistent Estimations are frequently impacted by biases. Yeah, that's pretty much true We're pretty good at estimating things relatively. No, we just suck in a relatively different way Velocity is a good tool Yeah, that's velocity or throughput cycle time. Any of those are also all good techniques For improving getting better data. We're a bit behind, but we'll make it up in testing. Nope. We're not gonna do that Scope creep. Yep, we got scope creep Having more estimators, this is the wisdom of crowds. Yeah, that can that can definitely help Or more people involved in the estimation Project success is determined by on-time delivery It some organizations it does unfortunately, but we want to move towards more value oriented outcome Oriented view and then estimation is waste. I'm look at let's consider that plausible so So now what so let me go through how I how I have coached teams to to work as I've found that this worked very well for me in Getting dealing with the trade-off of what's the right level of estimation? What's the right level of predict?