 Right, so welcome to our weekly lookahead webinar we're going to be looking at some of the charts of major indices and Commodities and currencies If any time you have a question, please just feel free to let me know Send it through our chat or Q&A box and I'll Answer as best I can But otherwise going to go through just some of the most popularly traded products with CMC markets So a bit of a topsy-turvy start to the week Obviously the big event last week was that we had numerous Fed speakers and Federal Reserve minutes suggesting that actually June is a possibility for a rate hike and That we could see two to three rate hikes this year now That's a bit more aggressive than the markets were pricing and so we've we've seen a bit of a snapback in the dollar And and stock indices are basically trying to work out how to gauge this Is this you know, what is the resilience of stock markets to this? We'll quickly look at the just the front month dollar index You can see that we've got a big old spike on Wednesday Wednesday was when the minutes were released and we gained a bit of ground for the following two days But we've kind of stalled a bit Just having having taken out those those peaks So we're at the highest since we since late March now in the dollar index So since similar similar moves and other currencies if we have a look at the the US stock market You'll see that We basically came in and touched into fresh lows since mid-march But we bounced off those lows And so that's where we find ourselves at the moment around seventeen five hundred on the Dow and No, we're sort of The reason we're going sideways a bit is because we've pushed through this support on stocks through this resistance on on the dollar But do we follow through is basically the question that's being asked at the moment We do have US GDP as far as economic data later this week We also have Mark Carney Facing questions from the Treasury Select Committee on the with regards to the British Pound Obviously, we've had more Skemongering from the Remain campaign Talking about a possible recession in the UK economy that would last a year if we voted to to exit the Eurozone Sorry the European Union We did see an initial bounce higher in the pound from that but actually we're coming off a bit But it's you know the pounds looking fairly weak, but You couldn't really call it broad based dollar strength of the euro still up a tad and the dollar index itself You can see it's pretty much flat. You know those two looking pretty much identical source of weakness in in Dolly Yen we're seeing yen strength even though the The economic data of Japan was pretty poor with some trade numbers from Japan really missed expectations Showing a big decline in the economy there, but the thing is that we've had this G7 Finance ministers meeting This week we've got G7 meeting of leaders. So you need to watch that's a possible You know some some possible Announcements to be coming from there unlikely But maybe the one thing we could take away from the the final the meeting the finance ministers Was that Jack Lou the Treasury Secretary from the US Made some comments sort of suggesting that they believe that the movements in the yen have been pretty normal something to that effect and just putting a little bit of political pressure on Japan not to intervene directly in the currency markets and So Japan and China have been put on a watch list of Possible currency manipulators, but they're not being labeled as manipulators as such But more of a sort of shot across the bow from the US so we don't you know We don't really see any need for you to intervene in currencies yet So maybe while the thought before was 105 would be a level that the Bank of Japan be Gearing up to intervene. Maybe that's dropped to 100 or sub 100 and so that's that's we're starting to see some pressure on Dolly Yen now So we've already had a quick look at the US 30. I mean this could be overview of some of the Some of the events happening obviously happy to discuss What other topics you might be interested in but if we just delve into the charts now So for those attended last week, you'll recognize these confusing looking channel lines that I've got Basically this rising channel here to make denoting the left and right Shoulders of a possible head and shoulders pattern, which we've broken down from we've now read Yeah, so you know this is the line here. We've broken through false break back down again Now we've retested the the bottom of it again. We've rolled over a bit So we basically we've broken the pattern, but we're not seeing a decisive breakdown yet We're sort of retesting the underside of the of the pattern here of the neckline of the head and shoulders So if if we roll over from here to my mind that means a Test of the the 200 day moving average before we sort of find our feet again The actual objective with of this pattern as I mentioned last week is actually below the 200 day moving average Below do it again, but it's it's pretty much in line with this low From the 10th of March. So we're looking at a few areas of support if prices do break down about 17 100 Is the 200 day moving average 17 thousands around number and then this low from March 10th and the projection from the head and shoulders pattern Takes us to about 16 840 ish If we do if we do see a move back above here, which I suspect could happen is I think that the next area of resistance would be these peaks Farm the 16th and 17th of May and I think that would be very close to the top of this declining channel We find ourselves in here So then we could we could push up here and Then that will be the next test Are we going to completely smash through the top of this head and shoulders pattern again? It'd be a failed pattern which obviously if you're short on the breakout not a good thing But nonetheless, it's quite a strong bullish sign if we can reverse a fairly obvious looking reversal pattern So switching gears To the to the UK market the UK 100 As you can see a Brexit You know, maybe you could argue on the margins. It's having some effect really we're seeing pretty sideways markets here So maybe an element of waiting for the referendum We've also got a month to go as of now But this kind of choppy sideways Markets are pretty characteristic across the Western world at the moment so you can see We're pretty much at the same level. We were on the 1st of March We're nearing the 1st of June so almost nowhere for a quarter So at the moment specifically We had this same area highlighted last week's webinar the 6050 has proven support numerous times So it's held again, and then we're just being capped on the top side now by the 200 day moving average Which falls just a little bit below this 2000 600 mark So it looks like we're drifting down a bit again from the 200 DMA But some some strong buying demand down at 6050 to me suggest a bit more likelihood of an upside break And if global equities are moving together that sort of speaks to a top at the test of that declining channel in the US 30 that we looked at if we do push through there Then I think probably just the first area would be these this support slash this resistance in around this kind of zone here Really the six six two sixty to six three hundred I think would be a kind of layer of resistance Should we get a break back above the 200 DMA and then beyond there we're looking at the top of the trading range again Which falls around so six six four fifty you could say is the midpoint Look at looking at our kind of proxy for European markets here of a continental market rather This is messier this chart them than I typically like to have them a bit too many lines you could say but this is a kind of channel that we've broken through and We've a bit like US markets and where they were the top pattern We've broken through it, but we haven't really shown much conviction on breaking lower We've basically held this gap support from April And you can see that we've just been hitting into that multiple times and failing to get lower which The support beating hit that many times when it does break it's significant But the fact that it's holding this many times does suggest it's you know, it's a strong level and Eventually could get a rebound but each rebound we've had so far in the US and the Germany 30 has been lower than the next And so I think the If we if you are going to take the opinion that this support has held a Confirmation would probably come from if I just drop down to the four-hour check and see that trend line a bit bit more nicely You probably want to a close above above this line This declining trend line to suggest that that sort of downtrend movement has has stopped I'll give it a bit of a bit of a kind of triangle pattern taking place here But the general rule for triangle patterns by the by is that if they cross through two-thirds of the Of the distance of the triangle at that point the the breakouts have less meaning and Don't tend to work as well once you cross that two-thirds mark You know, they just kind of end up breaking one way and then dropping back into the triangle breaking the other way and Giving false signals. So I would say even though this is probably a triangle pattern. It's it's it's lost its usefulness at this point We mentioned currencies a bit at the start Let's just jump straight to dolly and since I had been talking about that and it's the biggest mover today and Quite a crisp looking chart. So we basically ran into 110 the 50 day moving average and this this layer of support turn resistance at About 110 70 we're not we didn't quite get there You know, this is an example where say you're looking at this zone of Say 1111 and change Down to 110 65 it is an example of how really looking at the same trade can Can be one or lost just depending on your aggressiveness to it now If you were aggressive on this first line and had your trade beneath there, you know, even by a margin of say of 10 pips then you in on this trade and Yeah, you know, you're up plus under pips at this point Selling at that former support turn resistance, which obviously acts as a bit of a pivot point here Had you waited for maybe the midpoint of the zone Which is certainly a more conservative entry would have given you a lower risk. You've obviously missed the trade So that's that's, you know, when we're looking at these patterns here I understand that, you know talking about support and resistance, but quite how you tactically play them You know can make or the difference as to which trade you are you're in and out of One thing worth noting that we're seeing a quite a big drop But nonetheless the trend has been quite positive recently in the short term Certainly to my mind running into some longer term resistance But possibility that this this area here, which was kind of like a little triangle pattern on the shorter term We're finding some resistance potentially this form of resistance is now going to be support again So possible for a little bounce here from sort of 10940 area that we currently find ourselves But I would I would just issue some caution on that Given that the the kind of longer term direction of travel Let's jump back to the the euro-dollar So let's work worth just reminding ourselves of the long-term picture here is that we're pretty much in a horizontal range and so if your opinion is that we're in a range and Where the price is currently on its way to travel back down towards the bottom of the range Then obviously you're looking for opportunities to sell You know if you're of the opinion that this range has got a limited life span We're about to get a breakthrough 115 at some point You know then you're looking for opportunities to buy but buying within the range is buying and selling within the range is obviously risky on The shorter term here still were fairly trendless. We took out this support But wasn't really much in the way of follow-through. We've already had a good drop down to my feelings that probably would do a bit of a bounce Somewhere before potential support down here. It's 114 50 Do a bounce but there may be some some resistance to be found up in this kind of area from this low up to this peak If you think we'll go ahead and back lower into the range This would be a potential area Otherwise we're heading back up to this This long-term pivot around the 114 60 type area Have a look at sterling, which we've also mentioned is rolling over a bit today Let's snap these off so below the 200 day moving average and Certainly, you know benefit of hindsight We've had a couple of opportunities to to sell up here. I mean this one was obviously a big false break You know any any shorts at this previous peak on the first test were probably losses But certainly runs any sort of selling on confirmation after that weekly drop You know you're obviously selling pretty low down there, but anyway within this candle you're doing well And obviously we've we've just fallen away You know here's an example of where you know charts can be very useful guides We've dropped away right at that same peak where we had the false break here here. It proved perfect We didn't get a break. We rolled over pretty largely and Today tried to push higher and If we drop down to the for our chart, we can see a bit more clearly What's happened is that we had this as our kind of support and I kind of this is where we had the big breakdown and And you can see it's this Breakdown candle here was the kind of daily pivot and then we had the false break there Then we and then we finally broke through that which is what proved to be the resistance in the end So obviously of advantageous in terms of timing your entry points If you thought that that daily drop was going to pull back a bit And you wanted to fine-tune your entry you drop down to the shorter time frame You know and there's the advantage obviously of using the short time frames there You can see that's where the the short-term breakout happened and we got that popped back to there before rolling over again Now we've had that roll over, but it you know depends whether we can break through. I think this series of Market closes in and around this one forty four fifty area is is what going to turn and whether we can come down and take Out this low, but through one fourteen fifty I think we're back to the low and maybe back down for a kind of proper test of this of this broken declining trend line taking us back down to around one forty three a Possibility here if we break through the one forty four fifty And you can say just well we've got this This former resistance turned into a support again And I think it could again be support for support, but in the greater scheme of things We were basically in a in a trading range now and They we had this big big move lower here Which kind of put in the low, but it seems like more like one forty fifty one forty sixty is the The range that the price is respecting on the longer term at the moment So you could say that that decline broken trend line will be the next layer of support, but through there Probably down to the one forty fifty that would be dropping to the the bottom of the range here What does it take for that to happen? Well, obviously it takes some weakness in the pound It's not too hard to figure on that leading into the referendum also requires some dollar strength And well, we've had a hawkish Fed talking about You know more more You know more potential for a June rate hike. We've got more fed speak later today Bullard Williams are talking that could be a trigger for some dollar strength. We've also got manufacturing data I would say that's more likely to be weak on the weaker side But could easily be dismissed because it's been weak for a while And obviously later in the week. We've got the the US GDP data Apologies. I've just managed to log myself out What can I call that technical disruption? Moving swiftly on Let's just get to crude oil here. Now crude is Obviously important factor for air because he's go as well. We've seen a bounce from sub-27 up to nearly 50 and so I think what What's important at the moment is that we had this drop down to 38.2 percent retracement of this latest leg higher But we haven't had much follow-through on that. So we had buyers down here But no one really buying again on the momentum up here so looks like we might need a deeper dip to find new buyers lower down and The 61.8 percent retracement fits right about on 46 and our and our long-term kind of pivot Here so I think that could be where we're headed next If we you know if we close lower today That would be the lowest since Monday last week so the lowest in a week That that that the fact that we closed for lowest in the week could you know give her See a few people step aside until that until we hit that 46 mark Well, keep in mind that we're still making higher highs and higher lows of the strength trend is still higher So it's still a bit early days to call the top But if you were to call the top, you know around just the fact that we almost hit $50 Seems increasingly likely we have Over to gold is worth noting in gold. We've you know, we've had We're aiming for a fourth day of weakness in gold We had that, you know, the big move lower Obviously on the same day that the dollar spiked higher the gold spike lower on those on those Fed minutes And then we've drifted lower every since but we've not had a close below one two fifty yet So some sort of demand for gold in at one two fifty I think if we get a close as I mentioned on the chart forum here A close below one two fifty. I think we've dropping down to the this This inclining channel And that would fit nicely with these lows down here about one two thirty So really one two fifty is the test The gold basin at the moment quick look at silver while we're at it If there if there was any other market you wanted to look at by the way now would be the time So let me just scale out to give that support line some context So here we are. We've we basically come up. We've we've tried to challenge that that peak from a year ago and failed and So I think the next layer of support would be you know this Basically somewhere in above the the 16 mark is where this there's quite big loss of momentum in metals Could perhaps find some demand But obviously again for for metals to get bit up that require generally requires a bit of weakness in the dollar Which at the moment doesn't appear to be You know doesn't fundamentally appear to be the case Probably one one gauge of as to whether this dollar strength can continue and the meaning that has for the effects The other effects pairs and commodities and stocks Is is it's going to be there the GDP data? So that'd be a big one to watch So I think that's about it. We'll we'll call it a day there Thank you very much for attending and good luck trading this week just a lot of signing out