 Thank you very much for attending everyone today. This is our weekly charting analysis with myself Jasper Lawler Pretends to be another interesting week. We're starting to get a bit of a hefty sell-off after hitting some pretty high levels in equities last week We've also got the the big unofficial OPEC meeting in Which a cutting oil production? Sorry a freeze in oil production is is on the put on the cards possibly and we've got the the US Presidential debate tonight, so I don't think that's probably going to affect markets too much, but Obviously Trump is the is the kind of maverick here Definitely Not a status quo establishment candidate and so if he puts in a really good showing obviously increases his odds that That he could secure the the presidential election. So You know that potentially could shake up things come tomorrow It's I'm pretty late first in Europe. It's I Don't actually know the exact time. I think it's it's going to be in the evening in US It's going to be around I think one or two in the morning London time So not something I'll be staying up to watch for I have to say a bit of an early riser But I'm certainly going to be checking in on some of the highlights 2 a.m. UK time. I've just been informed. Yeah, that's okay I'm sure it's probably going to be quite entertaining. So I'm definitely going to check out some of the highlights but can't imagine that It's going to be worth staying up for For you those you on a night shift. Yeah, absolutely So more specifically to markets yes The way I typically go about things in these webinars is to go through the equities markets first then currencies then commodities If there's any particular big mover on the day or maybe jump to that straight away Not really got one of those necessarily today outside of shares of Deutsche Bank Which are getting an absolute pummeling down about 6% last time I saw down to fresh record lows I'm Angela Merkel as you may have read in my You know my update here also the short update we did down here and Angela Merkel Is it sort of suggested Reportedly that they wouldn't that Germany wouldn't bail out Deutsche Bank And they've obviously just been hit by a potentially $14 billion fine from the US and they already have a quite weak balance sheet so Some genuine fears that Germany's biggest bank could go into bankruptcy and the German government wouldn't actually bail them out say bit of Systematic cause for concern there The real problem with these big banks is that they is their derivatives portfolio And how that's linked to so many different markets particularly interest rates and obviously interest rates have been low for so long a lot Of the bets are based on the interest rates staying low Trillions of dollars of these derivatives No one really quite knows what they're worth There isn't you know a lot of the banks don't mark to market So they don't really price it according to current market prices. It's a bit of a gray area and and the kind of Counter-party risk that would be generated if if Deutsche Bank failed would be quite epic You know that would be financial crisis version 2.0 right there So pretty unlikely to be honest that the German government wouldn't bail them out But still obviously a bit of cause concern I wouldn't be immediately jumping into their shares at the moment That's Kent sending European shares down across the border. At least that's the justification But what I'd say is we're starting to see a bit later than I expected I have to say the the sell-off that I was talking about potentially kicking off last week in last week's webinar I think the UK 100 the FTSE is the more interesting example Because these are some of the levels that I was highlighting last week now we've got a four-hour chart on What I kind of do the the points I was getting trying to get across last week is that we jump off to the Weekly chart actually a bit harder to see with all the squiggle I've got on here at the moment But is that we you know, she pushed up into the the highs of the year Came down made a swing low down here just about Tried to run up and take out a new high did not Made a new low So made a lower low made a lower high That was the point that to my mind that was suggesting that we could be in for a bit of weakness And there any kind of rally up to the highs Could be setting itself up for a sell-off now as of today that's starting to happen But didn't really happen last week to any in any meaningful fashion So if we just had the simple Fibon actually set up on that so this is this is that That weekly low that got taken out with a gap notice that through the weekly low down here didn't get too far And now the market to run high. I've got a gap to the top side and Really went out and took out this peak here, but it was just turned out to be just a little stop run and So obviously anyone having their stop losses above that that weekly high up here got taken out So anyone who was selling had to buy up here and all those all the big money that wanted to sell Took those buy orders and sold against them and hence the markets down here So obviously just looking at this we got the sell-off So then we thought so the last week's premise last week's webinar premise was okay at some point along these lines There's going to be a potential for a sell-off back down to the low so first first instance was the The 61.8% fib Which corresponded quite nicely with these lows here that we broke down through sharply so there's a bit of a kind of Correlation there and actually did coincide with the the 200 day-moving average So we did get a pull-off. We did get a pullback If I drop down to the one hour chart, we can see it better So we've got a big pull-off from that level. So obviously the level played out Here's the lows, you know the pretty much right in between If I can zoom in a bit right in between the you know the lows and the 61.8 That's where the market found its You know found its temporary peak sold off Took out this short-term low down here, and then we were potentially looking for a Some sort of retracement up to here for the market then to resume its decline. So, you know if we had you know This is what I was doing at the time. We got this little sell-off And then we were looking up here and we've got the 61.8 Didn't quite do it got a little sell-off there 78.6 got a little sell-off there and obviously just didn't do it and we ramped up And we ramped up to the next level to the 78.6 Which if I pull out can see a bit more clearly on The four hour chart here we go We've got to the level there got a sell-off back down to the old high and obviously We're in the bit basically in the midst of an uptrend then so people bought the dip at the old You know the resistance turned into support. We've got a run-up again Because there were some signs of selling interest here because look it's sold off again after another little stop run above the highs Sold of down again to that pretty much stopped on the money on the the 61.8 level and the 200 day moving average And then the markets ran higher again right up to the peak now we're getting the sell-off If we jump down to the one hour chart We're going to kind of see how we would have been playing that the second one Here we would have been looking for the retracement Obviously, it just didn't do it and if you were sure you probably were taken out by that run higher Got the next move higher and then here Obviously, we've had two failed attempts to sell the market down based on that lower weekly swing But finally it's starting to look a bit better now So we've got the move down to the off off the level that we were watching which was the high the weekly high Pulled up to the sixty one point eight percent fear will in between that in the seventy eight point six sold off Got a little level yesterday. Sorry early today Beneath the low and then just tanked straight back down to the good old Sixty one point eight and and those former lows again And so here we find ourselves at support You imagine there's some scope for a little bit of a pop here, but I think I Mean the way I'm viewing this is that we're starting to get you know another push down so the next probably Significant area of support as I've mentioned In the chart forum here is probably be down to this kind of gap Move higher slash maybe this peak here, but I'll be looking more at the gap For further declines eventually So we're looking again. We're hoping for some sort of pullback potentially for another drop down To this support, but but obviously at this stage, you know, we've had the big move low in the market So now when you're looking to sell the probabilities that start looking a bit against you This is the four-hour chart still some room to the downside, but obviously it jiggles around before it gets there Looking at the one-hour chart, you know, so we're heavily into over sold territory now, so not typically the time you want to be Selling at least for a high probability set up So I just thought it was quite interesting the way that this markets panning out you know just referencing the levels I was mentioned last time and And then how things have transpired Looking quite similar across the the other equity markets if we put up the Germany 30 By the way, any other equity markets you want me to cover or any other market, you know, feel free to do so So the you know what I've been keeping on the chart here, which is making it a bit unnecessarily messy in a way But this is the big weekly level on here What the break a breakout attempt here came down the next week Here a little dip below here tried to make up, you know, that was basically the resistance, right broken support Push to new highs, but no we didn't get the push to new highs. We've got a drop We've got a gap down the next week So similar concept right where it's taken out the weekly swing low So then the the idea is that hopefully we get a pullback for a lower risk opportunity To sell into a rising market with the idea that we could be about to turn lower Obviously, there might not just be any pullback and the market just drops off. Well, okay It doesn't often work that way But you know if it does then you obviously you miss out and you've kind of got to adjust things to a trending environment on the short term But we did get that pullback So again layering laying some Fibonacci's on here. I mean in a way, it doesn't matter which you use I mean, I'm not you know Benefit of hindsight says that this one was a bit better, but you know, you could equally use this decline. It still looks okay So I did have this level on here. I've taken it off Which was this kind of rebound off this low here Not really a daily swing, but a shorter term swing at least which coincided with the 61.8 Never didn't get much traction from that went straight up to the round number 10700 and this daily swing low down here didn't even get to the the peak in the Germany 30 So whereas obviously if you're looking at this decline of the footsie we got through the 78.6 got a failed decline right and went straight up to the peak Germany 30 pushed straight through the 61.8 nothing really of note there But has fallen over the 78.6 and obviously we're talking about Deutsche Bank The banking sector in Europe pretty weak in part goes some way to explain the weakness in Europe versus the UK So hence we've hit that that big round number on Thursday shown signs of weakness on Friday coming off from closing below that weekly level here and then Let lo and behold, where did we open but we did open below that 61.8 level and and we're dropping down and we threw We're moving through this long-term swing peak. That's That was of note from that weekly chart so No Looking at this rally hired not really any really obvious Places for support other than where we currently sit which is this swing high here Which corresponds to that longer term level? So I think we couldn't get a the scope for a bit of a rebound here and But again, I think probably the bias is going to be towards testing the lows Let's move over to the US See before I get into that I did just post this before the webinar in case you hadn't seen it This is You know, this is the page that we upload with the the weekly earnings calendar Just so you're aware of some of the big themes for the week So obviously we're talking about the OPEC meeting here. Michael's done a video on it definitely worth a watch and Some of the kind of key earnings we've referenced in the bullets here and then a table with the the big earnings coming out for the week So Something to bear in mind in terms of, you know, what could be driving the indices? More big UK companies admittedly but Nike tomorrow. I've also done a little piece on Nike on the website But in terms of big companies Pepsi It's about it and obviously yes, it's it's getting a little political as of tonight But then for the rest of the week There isn't that central bank element that we've had for the past couple of weeks. No no Fed or ECB meeting etc So with that kind of gap in news, you know, that's when you can see a model start market starting to get a little bit rattled Anyway jumping back to the rest 30 many lines on here apologies for that, but Again, just marking out the big swing levels On the the weekly a monthly charts here. Obviously it was this Zone that supported the bounce higher off that those weekly declines, but we did drop down to the daily chart We did take out this swing low here move down to that big weekly level rebounded Basically come back to the other weekly level reminder. Here's that big thick line, right? For those you've missed out that's this line here So we've come up to that. I know think you know, I know not perfectly but if you use that big weekly level in concert with this little swing low here Quite similar looking to the the Germany 30 chart the kind of the swing low before the big breakdown That's where we found a little top for the time being So obviously we can find a low down here and go up to make new highs, you know, and it is it at large Still are kind of rising bull market. So got to keep in mind. That's a distinct possibility But just the fact that we've broken these lows to me suggests that we're going to go down challenge the lows Maybe I knew that Obviously you've got to kind of change your premise a bit Should the structure change and we take out the highs, but could have worked with something So given the fact that we found The resistance here and we're falling away I would say the next Support is probably these swing lows down here Most importantly this one because this was the low with a high on either side But these two when you look on a four-hour chart would line up pretty well Definitely some interest around just basically around 18 100 and then The market's been choppy around a bit obviously the big number to work to watch out for the big psychological level is 18,000 so Already had two one attempt to get through failed another attempt to get through failed run a bit higher Didn't get much higher, you know, right? They're kind of bulls trying to push the market up to new highs failing so far So if we get a tuna get another test, of course, there'll be some Trying to accumulate down here, but you would think by the third time good chance. It can give away So there we go. We've covered the equities here Let's move on to currencies I'm going to do it up front. Just because I don't forget. I know we've got a crest for sterling yet So let's have a look at that Obviously some pretty sharp declines. It's a big mover in general, you know, if you want lots of pips in a day You know sterling yen is is is the one to trade It has a marginally wider spread obviously all the cross pairs do But arguably you get it back in the amount it moves per day So we've got this Unconfirmed just off two major swing low kind of rising trend line here, which the market's looking to come and challenge Not too far off. We're obviously below the big 130 handle So this is a slightly rising trend line, but obviously it's just a generally Generally working at 130 is the big level that the market's trying to take out and it's not as any of these I think this might have The last was 130 05 was a last here 130 06 so we've not actually had a close below 130 is is Thanks something to take note of here in sterling yen so a close below 130 You know, that's not looking good for Going along the market to be quite Frank Obviously, it's a big level of support at these things aren't perfect So we you know we can get a flush down through these lows bit like we're looking at the equities where we have that little pop to the upside You know stops taken out above there by the by the big trade by the big market making banks Before the market drops Equally we can get a same the same sort of thing here Big banks looking for liquidity below Where there's going to be lots of orders obviously stop losses for those going long, but also Stop orders to go short for those go trading the breakout lower So all that selling interest can be bought into Should should there be the the desire to buy the big traders Nonetheless it sort of looks like you know again really got two lines to confirm here But it you know basically looks like a Big drop lower Triangle before a move lower, and if you know if we do get a breakdown from 130 We're probably going looking at 120 fairly quickly. I would say because it's been quite a long consolidation And if you consider we basically dropped two big figures throughout three big figures to the lower in a pretty short space of time You can imagine dropping one figure from here I don't think it's going to take too long and 110 could easily be on the cards Judging on the you know the kind of moves that we've got here It's it's a bit too of a long kind of pattern to be it's not a bare penance or bare flag You know normally there's they're much more short-term patterns would kind of be done like in this sort of time frame and done So this is a big long-term triangle pattern which can break to the bottom order downside but You know based on the You basically have to wait for the price action. I think around this 130 level It's it could end up being of a quite a nice buy at a key support level The moment that's looking very weak it looks like it's going to break and Helpful obviously when you're trading a yen pair just to look at the the dolly yen being the most actively traded so we'll do that now So here you see a sort of similar triangle pattern Bit more nicely. There's a big long-term trend line, but it just it looks so messy on the chart I've got rid of it We we you know we know the long-term trend it The 200 day moving average is working quite well to kind of show where the trend is as well You know the big question is do we take out the 100 level? I think you know if it when we do Get a close below 100 Close for the week I should say I don't think this was Thursday that we did actually get a Last 99 88 so we did get a one-day close below 100 there on August 18th And then obviously the market just rapidly moved higher again afterwards But if we get a close for the day again, then a close for the week, you know, I think it's Again, this has been quite a long period of consolidation So I think we get to get to 95 pretty quick if we if we break below Below 100 Obviously you need to start eyeing up the the big long-term levels because we haven't been here for a while This is a monthly chart You want to start looking at the lows? You know kind of down here kind of things in 96 Based on this low from 2013 Potentially a big level to consider and we've got this swing high from Back in 2010 Which fits in just below 95 at the 94 80 type area? Probably is around 95 we go on that peak. Let's see what's the high there. Oh Yeah, 94 98 so pretty much 95 And obviously we've got that little spike lower through there. So 96 conservatively 95 a slightly more aggressively is a Long-term kind of pivot area So again, yeah, actually, you know useful to look at these monthly charts somehow because you can see look attempt bounce off 100 failed Big long wick bounce off 100 failed big long wick bounce off 100 failed another move down to there Is it going to end up being another week week higher? We're on the 26th of September. So If there is going to be a rebound in dolly n It's gonna have to be pretty quick because the month ends on Friday so, you know, we've got a week to see a big rebound off dolly n So obviously that can happen. That certainly can happen But it's hard to really see what the trigger for that would be the Fed was pretty dovish and And the Bank of Japan have obviously slightly changed their Their monetary policy Stance but not by much so, you know the market we actually at the moment is The dollars down the yen strengthening not long after those that Bank of Japan meeting so Fundamentally it sort of looks like dolly ends got room to move lower as well But nonetheless, you know, don't don't overlook the power of support, you know You know in general speak you obviously want to be buying in my opinion you want to buying a support Selling resistance is a lower strategy way of trading. That's generally what I kind of talk about in these webinars rather than kind of breakout trades Which obviously generally involves your break if you're selling a breakout, you're obviously selling at the support or buying at the resistance Trying to capture that momentum breakout, you know that works, but it's not it's not something I've found any success with So I hope that helps so we cover the yem pairs Let's jump over to sterling like I mentioned it's pulled off the lows a bit actually but still generally weakened in sterling So this is the The kind of long-term raising trend line off the brexit lows Just done on a four-hour chart, but you can see we're moving through that We've got a nice little whipsaw false breakouts on Friday But the market only edged higher And it's rolled over again to test it so based on the very minimal bounce we got from that back down to the lows you'd assume that lows getting taken out and And obviously the the key levels to test are those swing lows But it's um, I mean I don't think there was much opportunity here Only in so far as you know if we drop down to the one-hour chart, you know I was You know the market was absolutely tanking on Friday, you know, you know, I was having discussions on on Twitter, you know Is this Is this a stop run beneath the obvious support here or is this a meaningful breakout? It's sort of turned out to be both. It was a stop run on that on Friday. We've got a push higher above the highs But you can sort of see here that you know if you were looking for some You know desperate case to go short at higher levels Look here was the high and then we just didn't do anything above it and then drop straight back down, you know Maybe from from here Hard to imagine how you could really have pulled off a short up here, but you know Down here you think well, okay. This isn't looking too good And obviously if you look at this last hour any candle, you know, where have we pulled back from but you know That same support level derived from the higher time frame So looking pretty soft, I would say the market but again, we're at key support. So Looking soft not really a highly opportunity high Probability scenario for selling at the moment So maybe look for the market structure to change for a break higher, you know, if we get a push back above this high And then a retracement, you know, that would be a scenario in which you know I'd be maybe interested in in buying into the potentially triple bottom here in sterling But at the moment, you know looking like it's going to continue down Okay, I'm going to quickly touch on euro. That's just there's not too much to chat about here John you're saying about the RSI divergence what on sterling on the daily chart. Let me jump back to that Yeah, I see what you're saying off these lows here on the one-hour chart We've not taken out the Yeah, it's gonna stay on that one hour chart. We've not quite seen it but Yes, a tricky one here. We're getting a bit more follow through on these little swing lows we've This is this is actually more like a If you're interested in RSI studies, there's kind of two ways of looking at things. There's the bullish and bearish divergence And then there's positive and negative reversals This is almost like a positive reversal where price has held showing strength whereas momentum's dropped So price is looking strong despite the weak momentum So that can you know sometimes foretell stronger market But obviously looking at maybe these kind of swings through here, you know, we were making lower prices and the price was Momentum was trending high, but we've sort of we've broken that mold a little bit So, you know, maybe that's why we've got the big the nice false breakout here, but obviously it's just not followed through and You can sort of see that this This candle down here, which we sort of looked on the short time frame is breaking that bound to that resistance has also broken down through this rising RSI's line So there we go I mean my bias is still to the downside. So we get some big I think we need a big move to the upside in cable and then that kind of tells us there's some Some buying interest there to find them on the pullback from at the moment. It's it's a falling market Okay, as I said that we're gonna hold it Completely running out of time here So You're I mean this is one of the occasions where obviously if you if you basically had an order resting at the low Or this you know the trade worked out perfectly Had you been had you been waiting for that level to kind of work I'm not sure you've had much opportunity to buy on any kind of pullback there Well, possibly looking at this one hour chart you got the move off the low here Barely took out the kind of short-term Resistance, I guess you could argue it did here So if you maybe you know if you're really monitoring this level looking for the push higher and then the opportunity to buy at the lower level You actually did get it. So all I've done here is just you know, we've got that big daily level to look out for So as I said, you can either have the order resting down there with the stop loss at some predetermined level Maybe under the round number or something or you can wait, you know, if you've got the time You can wait for the price action itself and you got your first pullback opportunity down here Maybe I mean it barely took out these eyes. I wouldn't classify that really as a breakout That's more of a false break to my mind But obviously you've got the pullback to the 61.8 point there But then the market gave you a favor with this big volatile price move it gave you a little move down to in the middle of the 78.6 and the 61.8 and shot higher and you know take take your profits up here or We're up here based on these these prior resistance levels Or if you're feeling confident, you know, I put the kind of daily level up here Which to my mind is the next Resistance area where you're looking for a similar sort of setup to this but reversed I think that probably gives way given that it's held a couple of times third time gives up And then the high probability trade up here may be around 113 the round number or 113.25 and then obviously this is the kind of bigger weekly level up here Which you know, which is a stronger place to look for again And just bear in mind the market environment that we're in is a range So there's no, you know, it's a good environment for like selling on the selling on strength and buying on the weakness It's not a sustained trend one way obviously if we're breaking out to the top side that you know It's not really when you want to be looking for Selling selling the strength, but that's not the environment we're in. It is in a total chop So any decent resistance area, you know look for a reversal Excuse me So Apologies for going over a bit here. I think I've got a bit keen on that footsie chart and gone over over to Brent obviously, you know one of the key markets be looking at this week given the The OPEC meeting So I know this is a bit confused, but it's just interesting how the fibs Again You know pick pick your range. I would say maybe these highs have been working, you know looking at this high this high You know this swing low here this swing low here as the kind of maybe brought One way to look at the range false breakout false breakout And so just looking at this run higher this rebounded from the 61.8 level here Came up to this these peaks here and rolled over If we get rid of that That move That recent move lower from there Has now found resistance at the 61.8 and the market's falling away So, you know if you you know the 48 round number combined with the 61.8 in a range market is A confluence of resistance So, you know It's it's a place to either have an order or again look for the market for the price action Fundamentally, I don't think that they're going to reach any agreement to freeze output this time around and obviously looking at Looking at the price action today the market doesn't really think that but you know We've known about this meeting for a while and the markets range bound with a slightly bearish bias, I would say And I think that probably reflects the meeting pretty well, you know, we don't really know what's going to happen They could freeze output that's good for all prices there, but they probably won't and that's bad for all prices I mean I could comment on all the twos and froes of all the comments that come in and out of these various oil ministers We had more from the UAE today But honestly, it's it's it's all fairly meaningless Except in a kind of day trading context Gold has been very interesting We're going to finish off with this so In terms of a sort of top down on ice of gold again, we're in a range market a range bound market, so looking for opportunities to Sell strength by weakness. We've had a good run higher here We've had you know, this is a fairly decent declining well pretty obvious declining trend line here So I'm going to drop down to the four-hour chart This is that last touch on the trend line And then we just had a nice confluence here So, you know in terms of you know, when do you place an order hanging out there and and when do you wait for the price action confirmation? big reversal at that level and also perfectly the seventy one point eight seventy eight point six fib and these lows here these which which Happened before the big breakdown lower So all those three put together makes a pretty strong level and you know look at that reversal we got So then if you had waited For that move obviously you're looking for some opportunity for market to come back and It did it came back to the sixty one point eight and three sort of separate occasions there We've rolled over down to a new low Now the markets giving us another opportunity It you know the fact that it didn't sell off big down there is it's honestly not a not a good sign And it could be an indication that we're going up for a test of the trend line So I'd be cautious here, but you know if you're looking for a pullback from those lows And you know you kind of we're kind of at it again, right? But again not a kind of held this support only miles and he broke below this one. It's making high highs You know, I wouldn't probably look at the seventy eight point six maybe just the same level again If not the previous peak and then the trend line is areas where gold could roll over You know You know if we if we're looking for that trend line to hold It's starting to look like There's some you know this this rally higher, you know, it's kind of rolling over a bit Potentially for some weakness back down to the the support in the one three twenty area Okay, I'm gonna call it a day there Apologies for ringing over a bit Thank you very much for attending. Good luck with your trading this week. It's Jasper Lord signing out