 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Gazzle Chapman, call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi everyone, Gazzle Chapman. This is the Thursday edition, 5th of May. We're looking at the Dow. Oops, let me get this updated right there. We're looking at the Dow having a spectacular session yesterday. Giving back a huge chunk this morning. It's down 542 at $33,521. We're just getting close to an area of support that really has to hold. And what we're looking at is within the context of the high that was made yesterday of $34,117. I mean, we're talking about a 600-point pullback or five-something, almost 600-point. This is not to be sneezed at. And one of the things that I look at is how is the market taking off in prior lows? In other words, the 24th of January, February and then 24th of March. No, February and January. So what we're looking at here within the context of the big move up. We've seen this picture before, but there's a very big difference. And one of the things that I was looking at for subscribers to an opening call and one of the reasons why we've been long all week on the Dow and still hold wrong at this particular point is that this is the very moment that you were starting to see some kind of support in areas like the semiconductors. Had a big move up yesterday. Actually, a Chapman wave Roman candle. Now we've gone into almost the wick. If the SMHs start to trade for 90 minutes or more below 237, there are 238.44 right now. Gosh, you can get quite a sharp move down to the low of yesterday. That'll be really tough. But if this holds, and for some reason, this is an oversold rally that we saw yesterday triggered by the Fed. I was really an excuse, you know, 50 bases. Wow, that was nothing. What was really key was that there was a short squeeze. There was some new buying. I was looking at some of the, for instance, some of the stocks that we own that have had quite sharp pullbacks. These are longer term positions. They had a really good session yesterday, and that to me said that we're now starting to see the rotation in some stocks that are under the radar, that don't have anything to do with yields, don't have anything to do with all those, you know, China, the lockdown and the whole shipping area is just, we're going to pay a penalty for that for sure. But at the same time, if you're looking at stocks that are kind of independent of that, that's a good, that's a really, I think that's a good thing. So here we go. We're looking at, within the context of, for instance, I looked at deer and it had a fabulous session yesterday. We once owned it, did okay. But we got out of it and then it gapped down and went from the high of 446.76 is double top high and a plunge to the 200-period moving average of 371.60. And then it ran up yesterday very nicely and then it pulled back. But deer is also, I mean, it's agriculture, it's tractors, farm equipment. So I didn't really think it was worth getting into. You know, I've made a big deal about these gaps. What happens when you go sideways and you're unable to fill the gap, how the lows of the rectangle formation that forms below the gap can be such a magnet to draw the price back in every time it tries to rally. So let me use this now. Just as we have nothing to do with deer right now, it was just something I was looking at. I liked the action yesterday. Even today it hasn't taken out the low of yesterday. The day is young. We'll see what happens there. So now let me go on. So we were looking at, did I do this in the update? And now let me just run this again. So the Dow, INDU, the Dow is down very sharply now. It's over 600 points down. There's at 33453. We're looking at the S&P. I think I did that right. The S&P is down very sharply at 4206. Down 93 now. Wow, that's a huge give back. QQQ trading at 319.30. Oh, it's real close to starting up. And even bigger move if we can't find some support very soon. At 319 down 10, you're looking at IWM, the Russell 2000. It'll take a little while for the small caps to find favor. So they're acting poorly right now. And then I just wanted to say once again, gold is given back a chunk of the candle, but it's still up from the close yesterday where the 200 period moving average was so important. And it's at 1888 of 20, but it had hit 1910. So let me just show you silver. And then we want to get into some middle gritties where so many people still keep asking me about the gold as they ask all the hosts at TFNM. 22,830 is the silver up 43 cents after the gap up and now sliding. But this really is the issue, surely, with the dollar still the currency of import, the currency that has the most respect at this particular point around the world. You've got to expect that as long as the dollar is holding, you're going to see some difficulty with stocks like at triple M had a big move yesterday. But when you look at the monthly chart, 3M is trading down 274 and 15149 made a peak E on the last high, running about the two 15-ish area, slumps down to the 141, has a peak D, pulls back, has a retest, and then it breaks out to a new leg up yesterday. And you would think that the dollar would have some impact. So we're going to see, I'm going to use some of these stocks, just kind of as a benchmark how they're doing based on the dollar strength and the dollar's had strength for quite a while. And companies, this is what companies tend to do. It's just like the market. Once it establishes that there's an issue, over a period of time it tries to deal with the issue in its own way. In this particular case, companies with foreign exposure that are getting money, you know, dollars with the dollar so high, means that their income stream is less. We're going to be watching to see how they do, because they do, you know, I'm not sure what they do, but they do manage to at least alleviate some of the negativity there. So that was triple M. Now what I want you to do is, the questions that I want to get to, at Crude Oil, Crude Oil is trading right now. Up $1.44, it had a bigger move earlier on. These are legs, see the magnitude is good. Secastic still weak at 71% on balance volume is increasing. The nine is still over the 14. So Crude Oil is still in an uptrend within that lower rectangle formation in the trading band. And that's really important. It has made a grade leg B in the weekly chart and that monthly chart has a peak E in place. But look at the technical stall, so strong for Crude Oil. You cannot dismiss Crude Oil as a key component to the entire market, because within that context, you've got to be looking at, say, the oil service stocks, OH is trading down from the high of today at $279. It's down 461. It's full of the gap. That's really important. Now let me go to the gaps. I'm just treating this like usually Friday's the Chapman Wave technical aspect, but I'll do it today. You remember I said, I had a week ago today, Thursday, and I've been discussing all week how the GDX cannot fill the gap. Not yet. It is attempting. It's going to take a lot more effort to build the base and use the 200-feet moving average as a springboard rather than a magnet. And we'll think about that further when we get back to $5.72. I'll be back and I'll just show the e-mini as we go into the break. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. 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From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, visit TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN Educating Investors Toll Free at 1-877-927-6648 Internationally at 727-873-7618 Hi folks! I'm going to give you the questions but let me just do this because it's so important because we need to know this is, yeah, TFNN, we're all about education. Larry Persevento in an event has to get educational it was really a trade that he was discussing as he was doing it he gave that 44 level on the e-mini and he got in and just below there was just a spectacular move beautiful and he's got a webinar coming up is it two weeks from yesterday? Yeah, check the front page out he's got a webinar coming up and his webinars are just fabulous so we're looking at GDXJ, which I said had gone under the 200-period moving average making that an incredibly difficult level to close above significantly because it has to really power like a V-shaped pattern and not come back and retest that's the only way you can get rid of it look how important it was as resistance and support back in February-March and then all of a sudden what happens is goes to this last peak, Dean the Chapman wave pulls back to a troughby and runs even today early on and looks like whoa, this is great and it still has not drawn in the yellow rectangle, that is the gap that it has to fall and then it can't just fall it, it has to start trading for two out of three sessions above 46, 45 4590 ready, but it's called a 46 and then I'll say ha now we can see if we've got the arch formation with the histogram in the MACD is starting to improve, if there's a chance of the 9-period differential green can cross the 26-period exponential moving average to become positive, if the stochastic, oh horrible, 16% can get to 28th and 37th and maybe 46% and really help so this is what we're looking at and that for me is the importance of gaps the way I look at it, how quickly do they get full, do they get full, do you go even higher or higher in whatever the case is and look at this, the GDX couldn't just touch the 14-period moving average and now it's down at the 35-24 level and that down 54 cents and that corresponds to DXY moving higher, I don't know if it holds all the way through to the day but so far fantastic, we've been long for subscribers to opening call for four years or something anyway we're looking at the USD, JPWise and the question came in if the USD trades the same way as the dollar that's the Japanese yen, US dollar, Japanese yen of course the mix of currencies there at what point do you think you'll see a drop enough to really get gold into a new, at least a shorter term bull market, well the issue here is not so much that I had said the other day that I talked about Vixi, Dolly, Bondi Goldie and Oily and I'll do that, maybe I'll do that tomorrow, I want you to think of them all as separate entities, it's just become so important that you don't think of the correlation that we've had look, bonds, the TLT is down almost three points a day, the TBT which is the inverse a question came in do you think we'll make that D that you were talking about in the TBT well today it's got the leg D and it's way above the left side high in the weekly chart, it's in leg E, a leg C in the monthly chart and another statement said you should really try to explain the TBT today you would really be doing a service to viewers, so okay I'll do that, so the TBT is the long side of bonds but wait a minute let's look at this, so wait I'm kind of finished with the gap okay that's done, I finished that for some people who asked me to do something on the goals now let's go to this chart here which I usually show subscribers to my opening call every weekend and what is showing you is look at this, this is the 30 year TBT yield is up at 31.48 so 31.33 right now look at that spectacular move it has gone above the high that was made back in the week of the first week of March of 2019 and that was at 31.19 so today we've gone above that so and look the cyan rallying, that's the 5 year ground is the TNX, the 10 year rallying this is, we've not seen the speed of a move like this maybe I'll open this up, I don't usually do that look at the speed of this move we've not seen, we did see a speed like that going up into the 218 to the high of I think it was around about May at about 32.47 3.247 back at a peak D and then that was really a sharp move up and then a bumpy ride and then it pulls back and then it goes to 34.55 November of the week of the second of November 2018 3.455, so we're going towards that, but remember we've been in a mega bull market in the Dow sorry, in the general market since the 2009, March the 9th lows of the down the S&P what's changed is the momentum of money going in from the Fed that has supported rallies that has changed and you've got to respect that so when I'm looking at the TVT what I'm saying is that in the context of what people pay besides all the I mean you just go by cheese you go by anything and the prices in fact you've stopped saying well what is it today because the prices keep going higher and higher but then when you add to it the core of say the 10 year year which gives you your core infrastructure for payments for credit cards, auto loans just a whole bunch of things what we're looking at is those prices are now kind of fixed and they are higher so but look at the what I wanted to show was look the timber and forestry ETF is still trading in the rectangle near the highs and look at the housing index the Philadelphia housing index has had a pretty good 6 weeks trading between a high let's call it a high of 425 and a low of say 386 but it's still in the range it's not breaking down surely by now it will be crumbling but it's not and that is something that you have to consider that there is still buying going on that higher prices say in the real estate market I know I bought a timber recently and the person I was with who's doing part of the work with me said oh my god a year ago I was paying like 30 or 40% less I can't be even much lower I can't even remember you said so those prices are now in the infrastructure of everything that you do so again I'm kind of impressed that this is held now let's get out of that because all I wanted to show you was that there are some areas that to this moment as we're talking at 1026 a.m. Eastern time on the 5th of May are still holding pretty darn well to respect that and now what we've got to say is so is this going to be just like the March high of the S&P in 2000 and then it wasn't until August, September where the S&P went almost towards those highs that it took its tumble and that was the big move down I see things a little differently at this particular point because the rotational aspect is really important so yes the TBT is absolutely imperative to monitor but we've been here before so you can't say it's the end of the world but it is very important I'll be back because we want to talk about the questions game in about Devin Energy and a bunch of other stocks if you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report the Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose every Monday morning I publish the Gold Report coverage of gold, silver, bonds the XAU, HUI, GDX as well as more than 30 different mining equities to see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the Gold 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more information just click the thinkorswim banner on the front page of tfnn.com folks let's go right to it so my first question came in Twitter and Twitter the question itself it's a good question and I'm not sure that I'm the person to answer it but I'm going to try so Basel Twitter buyout set for 52.2 why isn't stock trading 2 or near that level so Jim there are so many factors think of it this way you're driving in Vermont and you suddenly see a barn and you look across this beautiful lovely scenery and all that and the barn doors open and you look at the grill of this car and you recognize it in 1957 Cadillac Alderado and it's just the color that you've always dreamed of it's yellow it's light whatever it is it's a hand color and you stop and you drive up the driveway and you're knocking on the door and you say to the guy I'll give you $17,930 for that car and the car has been sitting there for 20 or 30 or 40 years or something the guy never even thought about selling it or anything and he says oh there are no cars there are no people anywhere and nobody over here is your offer nobody says oh my god I'll give you $18,900 it's worth 21 I know somebody who could pay 25 grand for it there's nobody there so that's really the issue that there's no competition for the buyout to really cover it and expense where it was trading in the $38, $40 area and it pops up to $54.57 on the 5th of April peak E in the Chapman Read methodology it hugs the 200-period moving average never falls the gap instead it climbs higher so now it's at 50.89 the only answer I can give you is that nobody was there at the barn in Vermont when the man made the offer for the 1957 with the wings, the gull wings Cadillac and all I can say that's the only way I can answer there was just no competition so it's just kind of stuck there and there's nothing else I can say normally I was about to say as soon as I heard it back to the 47th area I was going to say, wow, 47 if there's any offers at all this thing will pop like crazy that's for the subscribers to my opening call let's just buy it and hang in there or buy an option I don't hear any offers there's no competition for this in fact there's a lot of ugliness going on so yeah that's all I can say there was no other offers the twitter group was sitting there at 40 and 38 saying thank god we were off the 31 below that was made just a month ago this is great we're up nicely up 10 points thank goodness and then suddenly someone comes in and puts that so all I can say don't worry about it unless you've got a position if you have a position I kind of worm my way out of it you can use options to do that I would definitely not hang on because I think it's dead money more than anything else so Devin Energy this is a brand new leg B or is it an old leg F it's breaking to a new all-time high if you look at DVN trading up it's unchanged right now it's 67.73 the old high one of the old highs was I'm going to just keep going back it was up in the 120s at one point it was all notated but anyway it's not there now this is a spectacular move I suspect that the next level it's already tackled the high of the 29th of May the week of the month of in May of 2015 the high was 69.42 today's high is 68.87 if it can close above that this is leg D in the monthly chart then I think the tough thing is going to be can I get to 79.57 June of 2014 the answer is yes it can but in the shorter term I think we're getting close as I'm looking at it look at Devin let's go to different groups Devin Energy go to Exxon this is a multinational did the same pattern had a beautiful V-shaped pattern and then extended up if I can close two bars out of three above the high that was made on the 21st of April of 89.80 that's going to be a good thing but if you're looking at the monthly chart 91.51 was the high of the 8th of April and today's high is 92.05 how it closes the next few days is going to be very important I would not consider at all shorting any of these oil sectors because oil is in play there's just no question about it but what I would do is I'd say at this particular point you remember I'd say treat it as a trade take something off just because of money management when it was up in the 88th area and my rule of thumb is that the rectangle formation if it starts to make higher highs and higher lows you can see a move just under right on or just above the previous high and then be careful below and behold it went to about 90 just under the 91.51 high then it plummeted down to the 79 area here it is at 91.78 when you move the magnate says could be could be I would not mess around with this or if you are long the only thing I would say is if you want to take a little money off for money management to gain that's okay I don't know there are people if I think of Tesla and I'm thinking of Baron Ron Baron is it from here in Boston Tesla forever and I've always had this rule just for money management for my subscribers I personally might not do it but I always think of it as money management for subscribers take a little bit on the way up but there are people that add to their positions on the way up because they have such incredibly strong convictions that by the time it starts to make all time highs and then it goes on they have huge positions when they take something off they're actually taking off sometimes they're taking off the amount they put in initially but that's a different ballgame all together in this particular instance I'm saying just money management says if you're asking the question take a little bit off enough to make you comfortable just a small percentage that's what you really want to do nothing negative here about it at all next question was let me go through the one at a time so yes I did that it's a devon energy yes it's acting really well it's in the group and I think the question was where would I add to now this is a different question because I know the person who asked the question looks at the longer term I'm going to say at 68.13 on devon energy in your case I'm not going to say take a little bit off I'm going to say add a little bit on as a trading position because you want to accumulate as much garner as much profit percentages as possible here at 68.11 I'd have a 60 just for the moment I'd have a about a 5% stop on this you add a small position and I'm treated with a trading stop and as it moves higher just peel off whatever you can and just treat it as a trade where you know what you can lose I would raise the stop as a trading stop so you can lose between 5% to 3% of what you're putting in but as it moves up you'll start to get all of that back the potential that you would have lost you'll be making on the upside but it is it's acting very well the weekly charge the one that says to me how it handles next week is going to be very important because if it breaks and closes under 64 this is okay now we're going to have some kind of a consolidation so in the long-term aspect there's one way of looking at it short-term I'd say you're asking the question take a little bro make yourself comfortable make yourself comfortable I'll be back in a month thousand champion thousand down 655 are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has the Tampa Bay Area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up-and-coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating all areas of the market before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial 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watch tiger tv so we're looking at scopio tankers question came in scopio tankers question came in I believe it's making a big E today if it doesn't make a higher high than yesterday excuse me legs see in the weekly chart still very strong scopio tankers scopio tankers and legs see in the monthly chart what I would say is if you are looking to put some money to work in this I would probably say wait a little while let me just see what nat Nordic tankers is doing let's look at that one place nat there we go nat also pulling back yeah that's not as good let me look at ship and this is the other one that I like to look at oh had a rally announced pulling back a little bit let me look at dsx Diana shipping yep had a rally pulling back yes I'm going to say sting I don't know exactly what if they are in oil shipping they are but I am going to say 25 95 it's a little bit overboard I'd probably give me a yell let's look at it together if it gets to 24 50 to 23 90 in the next three days if it just holds here and and and doesn't break under 24 92 the 9 period expansion moving average let's go 24 16 the 14 period moving average that is really strong that's very good actually because the mat is very good stochastic 79% I'm just thinking on a short term basis it could probably take out the low of the candle of yesterday that's going to be really important so within the context of within the context of the spike to the upside here that holding yesterday's low is going to be very important I believe you are in it and if you're looking to add I wouldn't get out of it at this point I think it's still in play but 25 94 was a low of today so far 25 46 is a low of yesterday it goes under 25 30 and then I'm saying it's going to be a digestive phase next question we had was let me look at my questions here oh gold not gold gold but gold barric gold now this is this is the whole thing about the the gap look you see this little gap right here in barric gold training at 23 71 down 48 cents today it's how it gets filled and how it breaks and holds above the gap the day of the gap the day before the gap that is the low and it's going to hold sharply above there for two out of three sessions today try to fill the gap it couldn't and now it's way below so I'm just saying at this particular point gold is struggling it's not acting badly at all you think that I keep saying this when you think that I'll do I must remind myself tomorrow Friday I'll talk about Goldie it all will do that tomorrow so you can see now gold is up 16 it's still won up 16 big but not if you're looking at the context of where it was earlier today and where it is now and it's just difficult it is a struggle okay now let's go on to this next question I did that did that and I had TBT oh I know you talked about the TBT but I would like you to look at some levels where you would sell and add I mean at 17.68 and did take some off 17.68 TBT that sounds fabulous yeah very good TBT and did take some off in the 23s I plan on holding for the long term and would like to add on pullbacks what level should I be looking at thanks Greg I'm going to do this now but tomorrow I'm going to just spend a little time because I have already had five or six questions about the TBT so let me do this I'm just going to say I got this in leg D if you looked at my charts with triple yield charts weekly triple yield charts they were just skyrocketing they were rocketing to the upside they were variably moves like that we just saw this from yesterday a rocket ship move should only give back a certain percentage 20% maybe 25 maybe even 30% but immediately come back and try to test the previous high if it does more as we're looking at the down now done 737 has to be down 117 that just says that the move yesterday was a fake out and you've got to be really really careful we're looking at the weekly chart of the TBT look at that 22.60 was the high in June of sorry in March of 2021 I took it from a high I just took it from a horizontal level going back to February of 2020 the real high was the high of the week of the 8th of yeah the week of the 8th of November at 2732 and today we hit 2646 so we're getting close to where you would expect some kind of resistance level now you said you took profits at in the 23s and now we are at 26.43 I know in a way it feels upsetting to see it continue higher when it did make that PG right there recently it was a G slash B I said you consider that if it makes a cup formation and takes out that high I'm calling it a C which I did and then the request this morning was statement was are we making that leg D and the TBT and the answer is absolutely we're in a leg D but the technicals are still very strong put this in the category of oil for now and all you can say is within that context we're looking at demand for the TBT there and I would scale as you're looking in levels to get in and I'm just going to say with your long term holding with you having taken off at 23 as a long term position and this particular case I'm really talking a couple of months for me that's a long term there are other long term positions like the dollar from the 19.07 low back in 2018 where we've got it where we've seen up all the way up we've taken only one profit of a 96 something and via the UUP and I'll still holding it right now because this is such a critical moment that's very different but in your case I think you're looking at longer term whatever the long term is because you haven't decided when you exit that's really the way we're looking at it there so what I'm going to say to you is yeah 26.46 let's give it another day let me do a little bit of work on an easy thing to say is take a little bit off here I don't really see a reason technically other than to say because it looks high you should take something off so it might be a waste of time saying to you take a little bit off and then tomorrow I'll do the analysis and say oh man it's a little higher you've got to get an even better price I don't mind at this point saying I'm going to go through those because those are levels that I would like myself for my first subscribers they've been asking when can we get into the TV TV was an opportunity I didn't take it we were looking at other things and it's a shame so I I'm going to hold off on that so a question maybe wants to know could I please review MRO MRO is in the same category it had that big spike I'm calling this in this particular instance just for argument sake this gave me all the signals you need to go from a buy signal to a buy mode but the statistic is only at 66 so MRO and it's trading at 29 was the high today round number 29 and it's trading at 28.16 I'm going to just because I want to be as strict as possible to my methodology I'm calling this F C at the moment everything about it suggests that it could start to pull back but it's and it's a very quick PE to leg in the chart and so well I'll do a little work at the right question 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comprehensive look at the metal sector that move gold which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose every Monday morning I publish the gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the XAU, HUI GDX as well as more than 30 different mining equities to see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting TFNN.com don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today this segment is brought to you by thinkorswim for more information just click the thinkorswim banner on the front page of TFNN.com just real quick I'm going to say to you with your MRO because you're long I'm going to say at this particular right here as opposed to what we were looking at before but because you asked the question I'm going to say take a little bit off 2816 up 46 cents I I have two wave counts one says that this is an F if there is a slide that goes below 27 by Monday or Tuesday this coming week then it's going to go into a sideways consolidation phase nothing wrong with that it's been a spectacular stock you would expect some kind of a consolidation but at the same time I'm not going to say I'm going to do a little more work tomorrow I'll come back to it I'm going to say I would not get out of it but I definitely would take a little bit off because in this particular instance it's money that you could put back about maybe two points lower if that's the way you would like to do it another question is the QQQ is this a time to be buying I hi Belzil sorry I may have missed your advice on the show I would you be buying technology stock QQQ right here well we did yesterday but we're out and I don't I don't like what I'm seeing right here but I am kind of watching to see something like an ARKK because it's got so many of the stocks that need to rally right now so we have no position there I'm watching this closely because it's given back a good chunk of the gain and it's even gone halfway into the candle of yesterday which says you've got to be a little bit careful yet it has to rally within the next 30 to 50 minutes it needs to get off the 4867 level I would not be doing any buying in the tech area at this particular point I think we missed it really good if you are trying to get in that was just a great trade yesterday I would not put myself out at this particular point and right here as we speaking the ES mini that is the let me just get to it right here so we don't run out of time look you had this left side right side price time match it broke below it over there and about 4209 now to give back everything from the Fed we've got usually you would go between the last the first up bar low and the low bar itself somewhere in the middle right here this way at 4163 we're at 4166 right now that's where you start to see a great rally yesterday the right at this moment Larry was a bit of a fantastic trade just a spectacular trade during a show I did a spectacular trade and it's just beautiful thing to see right there at 1140 check out his