 If Tesla fails this range for the third time around, you're probably going to get a really big signal in the overall marketplace. Because, again, as far as I know, welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaxesatrader.com. We can update, show, hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a good week of trading, and hopefully everybody is having a great weekend. So let's talk about the tape. S&P, Dow Jones Industrial is down about a little bit less than half of a percent. The NASDAQ 100 is kind of in the middle of this really, really important earning season down about 1% or so. Not a big deal, right? I think overall, the market has been really strong. The action has been superb action, especially in the meat and potatoes of technology, especially this last remount that happened July the 19th. So we've seen really, really strong moves. Now, again, we've had some mixed earnings. It's mixed earnings and semiconductor. So for example, Texas Instruments didn't do well, right? At least on earnings, climbed back until it gapped down. And then you had the names that did very, very well. Clack on Friday was a monster, absolutely a monster. Can we give a round of applause on AMD for again, five years, a little more than that. Seven, eight years ago, AMD was trading, maybe it was even 10 years ago, AMD was trading like $5, okay? The company looked like it was in its last leg and about to go to zero. And the only thing they didn't say one earnings announcement, this was years and years and years ago, they just didn't use the word chapter 11. And look at them now, right? Look at them now. Absolutely amazing what they completely redid with the company and you gotta give kudos to all the management and CEO and everybody else as far as execution. They did it incredibly well. And if you told me 10 years ago that this thing was gonna be 100 bucks a share, I would have thought you needed stronger pills than my mother-in-law needed. So really, really strong action there. You have a lot of really big mix earnings in other places. IBM, right? IBM had a decent quarter. Netflix didn't really do anything. Microsoft, it was okay, right? Microsoft did okay, but nothing earth-shattering. Facebook was disappointing. And the reason why Facebook was disappointing because they're in the same business, right? The whole ad point-to-click customer acquisition. And if you look what Snap did, right? And if you look what Twitter did and you look what Google did, you can see why Facebook's earnings were very, very disappointing. Apple, you know, again, not here nor there really didn't react to earnings that much down a little bit. But now it's kind of flagging here to kind of go back up. And we started finally see some pretty good option flow in the name, good money flow, especially towards the afternoon on Friday. So this might be one of those scenarios that, you know, they got through earnings. They weren't great. They weren't good, but it's okay, right? They're still in the range. Technically, if they start reclaiming, especially the five-day moving average, it's gonna start moving higher. We did see August and September 150, 155, 160 call buyers. So we're starting to see some call activity ramp up in the name. The shocking one, and I think anybody would admit to that was Amazon, right? I don't think any trader ever turned around and said, you know what? I'm shorting Amazon at the earnings. They're gonna miss their numbers, right? I just don't think so. I don't think I've ever said that in my life. And they were down 7%. And if you look at the failure with Intel, Microsoft, Facebook, and Apple, the common denominator were in that failure, even Netflix, the common denominator was the market didn't sell off, okay? It just did not sell off. Technology didn't sell off. It was very stock specific and they bought the dip. And when it came down to Amazon, when it was down 272 points or 7% on the day, it really kind of showed a ripple effect. But here's the curveball, as weak as we thought was the session going to, and this was kind of going to change the narrative, and the NASDAQ 100, the common denominator played out again. They still held the bottom of the range, they still bought the market, and a lot of names that were very, very strong like the day before, and we'll get to the pivots in a second, like the Tessals of the World that started the pre-market session down 7.8 points, like AMD was down like a dollar and a half or so. Names like that, they woke up, they had their day two runs, and they did incredibly, incredibly well. So the question was, I forgot who asked me the question in the afternoon, but somebody asked me, well, Dan, are you getting a little bit nervous about what's going on in the world? And my first response was, well, how can you overthink something, right? Price action is everything, news on the surface is news on the surface until somebody reacts to it. And the more I thought about it, right? The more I thought about it, I was still thinking about it. Now, there's definitely some concern, we'll get to that in a second. As of right now, as of right now, going into Monday's session, I have to continue to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. The only reason why is they keep on neglect, kind of deflecting, I don't want to use neglecting, deflecting bad news. And what's that bad news? Okay, a month ago in New Jersey, I live in New Jersey, a month ago, we were down to like 100, 150 cases a day for COVID, right? Now we have the new Delta strain. I looked this morning, as of like five hours ago, we were like 1100 for yesterday, right? That's a big, big move in just a month. You have your continuing saga between China and all these US based companies that are really getting a shoot first, shoot second, shoot third, ask questions later type of scenario and that market and a lot of investors are kind of bailing out of that tape, right? And now if you look at the Asian markets, they're starting to go down as well. So we can't be, again, and I say this and I'm trying to use the word and I'm trying to be as adult about it as possible. It's not like it's my way of the highway. I'm trying to be as adult about it as possible. I still recognize there's a lot of really great macro setups ahead for this week, right? The Tesla macro and the video macro. I like Apple if it starts waking up. We'll get into the digital days in a second, but I'm also not naive. I get the idea we've been deflecting bad news. That's bullish. I get that part. I get the idea that we've been more or less deflecting what's been going on with China and the Asian markets are starting to come down and I get it. And the Delta variant is getting stronger and stronger and easier to transmit. I get that. And for now, it's not a problem, right? It's not a problem. It's not a problem until it becomes a problem. And I think that's the most important part. It's like saying buy the dip, buy the dip, buy the dip works all the time until it doesn't. And I think we have to go into this week with a good bullish bias, but just understand and keep an eye, right? Just an eyeball on what's happening, everything else. And we have to start looking for clues. One of the clues we're gonna look for are if stocks are getting upgrade, they don't go up. If futures rally and they don't participate. If stocks have a buyer strike, although the market continues to be good, these are all signs that a rolling short-term top are happening. Am I saying it's gonna happen this week? No, again, like I said in the beginning, I'm bullish going into this week until those dips stop getting bought, until those upgrades are being sold, until those stocks that have a great chart on a macro basis gets stuffed at the top of the range despite all the bullish activity that's on the surface. So we have to start looking out for those signs to start playing, keep an eye out open for any particular news that is going to exaggerate some of the issues that I just talked about in the last few minutes and be cautious. Is it the most pertinent thing in the world? Again, I'm doing this update, it's 10 to one, right? It's 10 to one, it's Saturday, July 31st. It's one o'clock in pretty much in the Eastern time. I don't know what's gonna happen here Sunday night news. You can have a COVID spike, 3,000 people in New York out of nowhere and the market's gonna start getting jittery. You can have more news coming out of China, more suspensions, more regulatory. So anything can happen between now in the open of the cash session on Sunday night. But from now going into Monday, at least for now, I have to be bullish. I'm a little bit cautious just because all these things are starting to kind of compound. And when you have a market that has been running on fumes and more or less been kind of melting up, again, since that May 20 remount of the 50 day moving average, you have to be a little bit more prudent. Like I said, like I basically told everybody in the webinar Friday afternoon, there's so much value on deck this week. You don't need to be long over the weekend, just because all these factors are starting to stack up. And I think there's plenty of range, especially in the beta technology names that you can go flat over the weekend, even miss the gap up and still have a gap to go scenario if technicals do confirm. And that's kind of what I'm looking at. So if you got a gunk to my head, 80, 20 bullish sentiment going into Monday session, I am avoiding, like I've been talking about for weeks, I am avoiding all the China names. I have no interest in them whatsoever. They're just grenades. They're literally live grenades in your hand. You just don't know what's going to happen. The one thing that I always keep an eye on, how are the stayed home stocks reacting to the COVID, to the new COVID strain? And the beginning of the week, Zoom had a nice move, really nice move. They started pounding those $400 coal buyers, really died down the last couple of days. You could turn around and say, well, you know what, it's just resting. But again, if news is escalating, slowly, but surely and you see a head count. And again, I understand the total complete argument of that is, well, it's not about the cases about the hospital cases. Okay, that's a whole different conversation. We're just using it for face value, for pure discussion. So the fact that Zoom really didn't rally as we're getting more cases, again, not the greatest thing in the world. Docu kind of in the same space, right? Stay at home space had a nice move when the numbers started to rise, it started to fall down. When you have a stock like Peloton, again, had a very, very big benefit to the stay at home movement did exactly the same thing. So these stocks are really not, quote unquote, while the strain is getting more aggressive, we have to buy those stocks. Well, apparently you don't because the market has spoken. What we want to do, definitely pay attention to this week is the names that are, excuse me, the names that are supposed to confirm, we have to see if they confirm. And if the case is no, for example, like a case on a Tesla, there was a monster mover for the last two days. If Tesla fails this range for the third time around, you're probably going to get a really big signal in the overall marketplace. Because again, as far as I know, this is the biggest cold stock, not named Amazon and not named Apple. So speculation money, for example, and again, you've dumped on my head, I say they break the top of the range. There's no guarantees. But if speculation money has a buyer strike at the top of the range on Tesla, if speculation money comes back in and has a buyer strike at the top of the range of Nvidia, if they come in and have a buyer strike at the top of the range of Apple trying to reclaim the five day moving average, we're going to quickly switch buyers very, very quickly. You don't need to get kicked in the head 30 times to figure out the 31st time is going to hurt. All these things are evidence. All these things are data points that we're trying to gather every single day. And if we start noticing any red flags and anything we just discussed, our bias is going to switch and we're going to start looking to the downside. That's the discipline. That's the point of being a technical trader instead of having an opinion, let the market dictate to us what's going to happen. So I'm going to give the bulls the benefit of doubt. I'm going to give Tesla the benefit of doubt. I'm going to give Nvidia the benefit of doubt and Apple the benefit of doubt and everything else that I kind of watched throughout the week. But I will have a very, very short few, I won't have a very, very short leash in having these things play out against me. So let's talk about it. So very, very aggressive week, very, very aggressive Thursday into Friday. For all you guys who keep on asking, hey, how come there's no videos on Thursday nights? That is my mental res day. For all you guys who don't know, I'm trading all day. I'm speaking all day. Louis speaking all day, answering, I'm exhausted by Thursday nights. What I do, I take Thursday off with the video. So there is no video Thursday nights. Occasionally, I will switch my schedule in case, like one of my kids have a game or something on Thursday, I'll switch it to Wednesday. But the moral of the story, there is no video on Thursday. So Wednesday's session was very aggressive. Thursday's session was very aggressive. And Friday, we'll talk about that in a second. So this was the move on Thursday, right? The Thursday and there was no video. In the video, I'm still watching this area to confirm never did. 656, 657 needs to build on Tesla. And Tesla had a monster two day run. Congratulations for everybody who caught it. Here was the first range here that again, we talked about the sneaky channel, right? We always talk about sneaky channels. Here's the sneaky channel. It got above the 556 level and just really exploded into the 580s. And here was my comments for Friday. Monster move yesterday, keep an eye on the stock red to green. Guys, remember red to green is cool on, it sounds good on paper. It's not a pivot, okay? The stock still needs to confirm the previous day's channel. And this is what I wrote. Red to green is on watch for experienced traders only. No, this is not a pivot. Just momentum needs to confirm 685. And not only did Tesla take out go red to green, it took out the 685 and went right into supply of 697. We're set up guys. There's no mystery where the pivot is. I think if anybody, if you could be blind and be able to see what this damn pivot is, this 700 level is a monster. It's either gonna get rejected. It's gonna go back down. Or if this thing closes above seven, I mean, look how much room you have. So I don't, it's very, very tough for me to turn around and say sugarcoat this. It's either gonna explode or it's not, right? That's it. That big level off the top of the range. Again, we'll see what happens there. So Tesla great, great run on Tesla for two days. I still like this little UXIN, didn't confirm. Kroc's not a big move at all. Only went up like 50, 60 cents and they kind of reversed with the rest of the market. AMD, again, can we talk about AMD, man? So here was the pivot from Thursday's session, right? 98, 75, 99 needs to build. So monster move yesterday for experienced traders. 103 needs to build. No, this is a mad big two-day run. On the third day, usually it's a little tricky. The third day could give you 20, 25 cents or it could give you $20, $25. And just an absolute monster, a three-day run. It took out the $99 the previous day. It took out the 103 pivot for continuation. And congratulations to all you guys who wrote, we're still writing this thing. This thing went to 107. Just an absolute monster move on AMD. Big move there as well. Qualcomm rejected three times and stopped right at the previous high at 150 and a half and never confirmed. Let's see, here's a tee. Take on the way, take on the way for AMD. AMAD was a beautiful trade. I've been watching AMAD for, it felt like four years. It's only been a month, but it felt that way. I caught this thing really nicely. 140 rejected three times daily. I kind of knew it wasn't gonna be a big run just because it was a supply zone right here, the Bollinger Band right here, but it took out this whole channel here at 140, went right to the supply zone. I think if it could reclaim like 42 or so, I think it goes back to this 46, but nice little trade there. Nevertheless, on AMAD, so perfect move on AMAD. Tesla supply in 94 actually went to 97 and yeah, not too shabby of a morning. And then you had snow. I still like snow, guys, watch this snow. Keep an eye on the snow. It's been rejected now several times off this 275. It keeps on coming up there and it just can't reclaim this 275 level. Keep an eye on this thing for the future. mRNA, nice move there for experienced traders. Only 353 needs to build. Here was mRNA. It took out this whole channel here at 353. It went to 360, obviously a couple of bucks away from its all-time highs, but nice move, really nice move on mRNA as well. Yeah, here goes mRNA, 355 yesterday's high. Went to 360, fantastic morning. Again, option flow coming in. These guys are anticipating, right? They're anticipating the move next week for Tesla. They came for the 710, 737, 770 August calls. So again, keep an eye on this thing as well. mRNA exploding and I believe that is it. Yeah, so that's it. So market is set up, right? Market is set up. Again, we're going to be cautious, but again, the moral of the story is that the bulls continue to be this Teflon market. Keep going with it until it stops. Let me give you guys a couple of pivots that I do like for next week. Look at Apple, again, let's talk about Apple. This five-day moving average has now gotten rejected three days in a row. We did see short-term expiration in the August and September expiration contracts. They were coming in for the 150, 55 and 60 calls. If Apple can reclaim this five-day moving average, I think this thing can get back to 150. Even NEO, again, gone through my head. Listen, literally gone through my head. If I have a choice between NEO and Tesla, I don't give NEO those bankrupt. The stock means irrelevant to me, but for all you guys who do trade NEO, this 50-day moving average is a big deal. It stopped there on Friday. If they could reclaim the 50-day moving average, this thing could really wake up. We did see 50 and 55 short-term calls come into the name as well. And for all you diamond hands, right? All you diamond girls, how many of you guys remember that in the 80s and 90s? Diamond girl, yes, yo, right? This thing is close. This thing is very, very close. Game stop has stopped at the bottom of the range here twice. Any close, folks, any close below this 150-day moving average, there's like $40 worth of downside. So if the bulls don't defend that level on the bottom of the range, your game stop, it could be lights out, right? Pun intended for the company. So guys, have a great night, everybody. Enjoy your weekend, enjoy your life. We get no mulligans. Love yourself, love your family. And with God's help, I'll see you all on Monday. Take care, everybody.