 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Really fun Friday on tap because we have got some playoff basketball with a couple of games coming up for two net We have the Celtics and 76ers Nuggets and Suns and also some hockey action got the Devils and the Hurricanes for game number two We're gonna break down all three of those game the Tom Vecchio and talk about some MLB for tonight as well This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Joined here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio. Check him out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom You can find his work over at number fire Tom. Happy Friday to you. How you doing today? I'm doing good. Yeah, we got a really fun day of sports. You know a couple obviously high-leverage playoff games We have a full day of baseball Tonight slated for basketball. I think it should be particularly interesting and I obviously can indicate where the series will go from here I am ready to go. Yeah, I think with the way the matchups worked out for the second round It's been really fun. Like I know it's just the second round. It's not like the highest leverage games yet But luck of the draw or just maybe like good depth of teams in the NBA Whatever it is like these series are cool and like as a casual fan a casual observer. I'm kind of jacked about it Yeah, and you know, this nugget Sun's games Obviously, I would say the most interesting yet of probably anything going on today Like what are we gonna be seeing from the Sun's will obviously get to that in a minute, right? You know, I think there's obviously the whole weekend of games is gonna be awesome And I know you're in teff one. It's here in Miami. It should be a good weekend Got my valetary Botas hat on in in I don't have the mullets. I could work on that next He has a mullet now. He said he grew it because of Australia. He's he's Swedish. I don't know. It's weird They're finished. I don't know whatever He's an odd guy, uh, but we do the hat on in honor of valetary Botas who I am not betting on for this week We talked to f1 on the yesterday's show. You can find that there But also check out our kentucky derby podcast with christina blacker That is up in the feed. You got that going on saturday as well six 57 I believe is post for that So check out the kentucky derby podcast with christina blacker a fandal tv to get her read on this year's field Her favorite bet for a fan over at fandal racing and much more get that by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Let's start things off though, tom by talking about some nba for tonight over at fandal sportsbook game number one here Is the celtics and the 76ers right now? The celtics are two and a half point favorites. The total is 214.5 to 76ers looked lost in the first game with joel and bead back in game two, but they Slaughter the celtics in game one. So I don't know how to feel about this series tom. It's weird. What do you see here for game number three? Yeah, like you said, it's really weird and ultimately my take is I I don't have a pick to win that's what comes down to so my overall take for the game. I guess is I expect the celtics You know to continue doing what they're doing from the 76er side of things I expect them to play better than they did in that second game, but I just don't know who's going to win So they can put up a performance similar to what they did in game one But still lose the game You know kind of get back in the rhythm with him be like you said they looked lost out there Wasn't a whole lot of scoring from really anyone or their team overall So I expect the 76ers to play better. I just don't know who's going to win And I think that this is a really really pivotal game in telling us What we're going to be seeing because of the sixers play like they did and look like they did in game two This series is going to end four to one. I think that's like a very realistic outcome But if they can at least show signs of life They'll have that chance in the second home game to tie up the series and then we're going to be in for a very long series so I'm just as confused as you are and I'm looking at a lot of different things and the tough part is The way that they played impacts props too. So obviously the entire board is available, but it's tough to know You know What do we do with him bead? Will he play better this time around? We don't know Because it seems like a pretty serious knee injury that he had So We're not picking anyone to win here But anything in the prop department that you're that you're zeroing in on here because I think that that is equally murky as well it is and You know when I'm looking when I'm taking a step back, but okay the 76ers played horrible in game two What would be their plan for game three? How do they get things going back in the right direction? Um, and I think that leads me to Tobias Harris under 14 and a half points Seeing a minus 102 You know the first game you could say okay He had some points and bead wasn't playing a lot of players scored But more importantly, he was really efficient. He was seven of 12 in game one And he was eight of 16 in game two and he really shouldn't be a primary shooter So, you know going along the signs of like, okay, what do the 76ers have to do? It's probably not getting the ball into Tobias is Harris hands a whole lot He is a good player, but realistically to get their offense going. It's probably going to be a lot of in bead It's probably going to be a lot of harden and I think combined with him being overly efficient in the first two games This is the spot for him to a regressed but also be kind of just be pushed slightly out of the offense Because they need to get their stars going So combining these two things together not to mention the fact that obviously the Celtics have a good defense That I think this puts in a spotlight I don't care that he hit the over, you know compared to this probably games We have to take those with a bit of grain of salt with his efficiency and with and bead out of the lineup This is the time for him to hit the under because the 76ers kind of have to go back to I would say the basics and that's in bead and that's hard and it's not Tobias Harris Yeah, the number is 14 and a half under is now minus 106 I'm assuming that's still okay for you despite it being a 102 earlier, right? Yeah, totally on board with the under Tobias Harris under 14 and a half points minus one of six right now fans of sports But for the Celtics and 76ers under the assumption that joel and bead Hopefully healthier get back to basics get hard and more involved as well to hopefully kick start that offense From what was a pretty pathetic game number two. Let's talk here about the nightcap here We got the nuggets and one more in that game. Oh go ahead one more game Marcus smart over three and a half rebounds. Okay plus 126 You know, he's a player that he averaged just over three rebounds per game in the regular season But if we actually look back at his postseason stats over the last few years He actually jumps up a little bit. He was the defensive player of the year last season He's a player that is going to be all over the court. He's never going to be a massive pure score but great defender and I think that the Celtics know and and have kind of shown especially last year in the playoffs And they're starting to show it this year, you know, their first round match up wasn't entirely tough At least from a defensive standpoint, they just poured in the offense against hawks But when time, you know push comes to shove in it's this time They do a lot of great team rebounding and with smarts defensive ability He knows that we see he knows that he needs to contribute a little bit more just by being a guard So I do like over three and a half rebounds from marcus smart tonight Over three and a half rebounds from marcus smart is now plus 124 fandals sportsbook So a slight movement there but still it's like a good value based on what tom is seeing here with smart Being a heavily involved piece of this defense which he does respect for the Celtics Let's talk now here about the nuggets and the suns. This was suns minus three and a half It is now shifted to suns minus four despite the fact the nuggets have won each of the first two games here by double digits Total is 225 in this game tom. So can the suns Play competently tonight or are we turning trending towards another nuggets victory here? Uh, I would hope the suns play confidently or competently tonight and confidently Like I said, this is probably more interesting of the two games because if the suns Lose this obviously everything we reference in stats. Oh when a team goes down three. Oh Only you know 10 percent of whatever it is teams come back and win And obviously we know that chris paul is out for the suns He is dealing with this groin thing. He left the previous game early. So what does that mean from their team? We should see where i'm at least i'm expecting to see camera in pain as the starting point guard He's the player that stepped into a lot of playing time when chris paul was out throughout the regular season We can literally look back at you know dozens of games and and see the usage change Of course to rant and booker are going to be the high usage players the primary shot takers I have no interest in the player prop. Uh, the player props are really either of them the points props I think those are hyper efficient at this point in the season, especially with chris paul out They're going to be so refined. I like cameron pain over five and a half assists. That's sitting in minus 115 he should really just Really focus on being the primary facilitator of the offense and he does have a high assist rate leading One of the top four in the team when chris paul is off the court And again, we're looking at a good sample size throughout the regular season when chris paul missed a bunch of games So Again, this is another team the suns just like the 76ers the suns have to get back to basics That means a lot of durant and a lot of booker while also trying to limit yokich and murray, which is obviously a You know it its own task But that really should mean that pain is not going to be a shooter for them tonight He's going to be dishing the ball out to the most effective scores basically Not only on the team, but also some of the best effective scores in the league Do does it worry you at all that we're seeing cameron pain here in the playoffs? Whereas when paul was out previously his regular season durant wasn't fully ramped up Maybe they decided to go with booker and durant more ball handling or do you think that pain is skilled enough that area where We can bake that role in and just kind of know that that's the way they want to go We can bake that in it's also The rest of their lineup isn't as competent as cameron pain who does have some experience and More importantly the mints are going to be there for him. So even if he's not Like super confident with the ball. He just needs to hand it off to Durant and booker who we know can knock down plenty of shots and Yeah, I'm not really worried about the the playoff Regular season You know difference it's it's going to be campaign probably for 30 to 35 minutes tonight All right 30 to 35 minutes to rack up at least six assists over five and a half is minus 113 right now For cameron pain there anything else you like across nuggets and suns for tonight tom I would lean on the under because I think that the the suns have to kind of clamp things down on defense They have to limit you could just take the limit murray. Um, you know, it should be tough with them without chris paul out there But uh, I don't have confidence in taking Really anything else besides a slight lean on the other Okay, so what we're looking at here for tonight is liking cameron pain over five and a half assists minus 113 Marcus smart over three and a half rebounds plus 124 and to buy his harris under 14 and a half points at minus 106 Let's talk now about some hockey We got game number two here between the hurricanes and the devils and the hurricanes kind of ran away With game number one one that wanted to leave five to one right now their money line is minus 118 devils are at minus 102 Total is five and a half plus 114 on the over minus 140 on the under tom What are you seeing here for game two between the devils and the hurricanes? it's reminding me of Exactly what we saw from the devils in the first round where they lose game one against the rangers five to one They lose game two against rangers five to one and then they kind of get their footing and come out and win the series and I think that this is Something that we could be seeing from the devils in this round and no pun intended like they just need to weather the storm against the hurricanes and You know kind of get their footing where? You know the canes finished off their series They had a couple days of rest the devils only had one day of rest So and they had a travel so a few different factors going into that I'm I'm still confident that the devils can win this series and it comes down to a few things like I said They started off the first series slow. They're starting off this series slow The hurricanes one thing that I think is going a little bit under the radar for them Is they're actually really banged up when it comes to their forward court max patch ready and andrex fashion Koff have been out since the regular season In the first round against the islanders taboo terravon and broke his hand. He's after the rest of playoff start hurricanes Jack Drury returns the line for game one, but he's been a bit banged up So they're actually a little bit depleted far far worse compared to the devil So again, if the devils can kind of get their footing They have the offense to put up numbers left and right and you know digging into like expected goals The differential from what they scored at the regular season rate to you know scoring rate You know per 60 minutes in five five situations in the playoffs. It's such a small sample size I'm dealing a handful games. They're they're really I don't want to say bad on offense right now, but they're just not scoring So I expect them to start scoring more. So I'd lean towards the over I also think that they have a much healthier team where again if they can kind of weather this storm through these first few games They should be able to be healthier as the series goes on and they can win this in five in six or seven games So I think that is an indication of where I'd be leaning for the devils. I like the devils tonight I would lean towards the over but ultimately my favorite prop would be jack hughes over three and a half shots Sing it minus 130 it might be a little bit of juice for some people But he's ultimately their best player and you know, we saw him in the ranger series getting to five seven and nine shots In in four of those seven games. So he's a primary shooter primary shot taker And really if their offense is due for some positive regression, he's probably going to be the main driver of it Does that thought about positive regression where they're getting shots off, but they're not scoring Does that put any any like any thought in your brain towards potentially turning towards a goal scorer market Which is more volatile and could potentially be more in line to benefit from a goal scoring situation Or does your lean towards the over kind of cover that base for you allowing you to go With the shot prop on hughes over three and a half I think the over covers that basis You know, we've we've seen it's the players are so different where you have these random players stepping up and scoring that Really aren't expected just because they're trying to line match more right. They're trying to have a little bit more balanced ice time You know, so seeing third and fourth liners score goals that we're not You know necessarily anticipating where you know jack hughes is taking seven shots against the rangers in one of those games That he's not scoring So I would just go with the over because that kind of encompasses everything like you said We can capture that rather than just trying to pick one player Yeah, the huge shot prop over three and a half shots is minus 130 right now Fandals sportsbook the total in this game Five and a half plus 114 on the over. Is that a a lean for you tom or is that one you feel okay betting? um I would I feel okay betting that one. I actually really do like that I guess I'd positive regression for the devils And the hurricanes if if there's any slip up or any player banged up they could be You know, they're gonna be shorthanded and that's That's that's not a good sign going against the devils team That's essentially fully healthy team omeyer didn't play in their most recent game He could be back tonight and then that means they're at full health Right now the series betting for this one. Uh, the hurricanes are minus 180 because they have a game in hand Right, so that makes sense devils are plus 152 Didn't sound like you were enticed by the devils money line at minus 102 Would the plus 152 to win the series be long enough or do you think that's pretty appropriately priced? It's appropriately appropriately priced. I also have interest in it I will also say I do have the devils to win the series from you know prior to game one. Yeah Uh at minus 125. I think it was yeah, so I'm almost confident enough to after game one. I was waiting for these lines to be posted I'm almost confident to buy back in. Okay. Um, because I obviously had numbers great at plus 150 now Compared to where I got a minus 125 So I'm I'm on board the devils. Yeah, I could take them tonight. I could take them in the series Uh, whatever it might be Okay, so check out the devils markets decide which one you believe to be the best route to buying into them whether it be The total to buy into the positive shot regression the jack you shot prop minus 130 whatever it may be anything else You like in the NHL for tonight tom? Uh, no just the one game for the other series You know vegas and edmonton It's it's going to be tough to take unders and in that match up with the the offense that bull teams have Uh for dallas and the kraken I would say continue to lean on unders in that series and You know, hopefully the least can bounce back and make it a series against the panthers who ruined my 15 to 1 Bruins stanley cup future Uh condolences Pour out some coffee, uh for you on the Bruins 15 to 1 that was I I live in like the Boston area so a lot of sad people Recently around here. Hopefully the Celtics can brighten people's moods But either way that is tom vecchio check him out on twitter at dfs underscore tom find his work over at numberfire.com talking All different kinds of sports over there tom. I appreciate the time as always. Good luck to you this weekend Have fun watching all the sports. We'll talk to you again in the very near future. Thanks for having me Alrighty again. Check out tom on twitter at dfs underscore tom actually next week on friday tom be filling in for me here on covering the spread I'll be out for my wife's phd graduation So tom will be with you for the full show friday to fill in for me friday and the following monday as well We're talking about some mlb that I like for tonight here in just one second But first now is the perfect time to get in the action with fan to erase even the biggest horse race of the year being here All the customers can get a no sweat derby bet up to 20 dollars That means you'll get to 20 dollars back if your win bet doesn't win The fandal racing app is super easy to use safe and secure and when you win You get paid fast So don't miss out the derby is coming up this saturday. Just visit racing dot fandal dot com for your chance to win a No sweat derby bet up to 20 dollars on fandal racing. That's racing dot fandal dot com Age and residency restrictions apply offer valid on first derby win wager refund issued in non the travel racing site credit that expires on 612 23 Restrictions apply so you terms at racing dot fandal dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Let's dig in now to tonight's mlb slate a couple money lines and a couple strikeout props I am eyeing over at fandal sport but in one of the money lines and the strikeout props Don't mesh well. We'll talk about that in a second. Let's start things off here With the one that is a standalone recommendation That is the twins money line at minus 126 as they take on the cleveland guardians for tonight Do you like the twins there in that spot? This number has moved overnight? So Hopefully you were somehow predicting I would talk about the twins here and got it I think they were minus 115 at one point, but even minus 126 I've got value my model is the twins win odds at 59.5 percent. They're implied win odds 55.8 percent at minus 126 I think a part of the reason why I'm hired in the market here is a respect for bailey ober He's not a big name as a starting pitcher But he's proven to be capable with a 3.95 skill interactive era across 33 career starts So a pretty large sample for ober between 2021 2022 and then one start this year. He's been pretty solid He's facing paint in battenfield battenfield If you look at his numbers whether be in the majors this year in a small sample or in triple a last year He profiles as a low strikeout fly ball pitcher and that can be pretty risky And it's risky when you're facing a team that has byron buxton Finally heating up carlos korea. Well homerun yesterday I'm not sure if he's like fully back yet the the data more inconclusive there max kepler Jorge balanco both at the joey gallo looking awesome so far This twin team I think is pretty good right now So to get them at minus 126 with a decent starting pitcher facing over the team that you know has a pitcher who Has some risk in his profile for sure. I think that makes a lot of sense So showing value on the twins their money line minus 126 right now over at vandal sportsbook That's the one where it's a standalone. Let's talk now about the bet that doesn't match super well That is the boston red sox money line, which is currently a plus 134 at vandal sportsbook I was talking about this before 136 and I like chris ale under six and a half strikeouts Let's start things off here with the money line because again, these do not mesh super well You typically want overs on strikeouts when you like the money line and unders when you like the opposing money line That is not the case here The reason i'm on the red sox money line here is I think that chris ale Has improved since the start of the year started the year just kind of a dumpster fire Really letting up a lot of contact live live balls Sale though is a veteran. I think he recognized this and in his Start he cut back on his sink usage sinkers can be very good pitches If you are struggling with hard contact and sale was but clearly that was not the remedy Cuts back in a sinker usage and in three starts since then his hard hit rate allowed is just 31.3 percent Those numbers tend to stabilize around 80 or so balls in play. We are nowhere near that but He has been very good in that sample Sale did still have a clunker in there that was against the orioles where he had no strikeouts let up A decent amount of hard contact there, but the other two games were fantastic I've also been decently surprised by boston's offense 120 wrc plus on the current active roster against righties this year So the implied win odds at plus 134 around 42 and a half percent or 43 percent I've got boston above 45 percent to win here So slight movement towards boston on this number because again, it was 136 earlier But a plus 134 is still good enough to me to take that Now it is two recommendations from the same game. So you could in theory decide Hey, maybe I want to do a same game parlay here and go with the uh red sox money line and sale under strikeouts I would not do that because those bets do not mesh well again If i'm taking the money line implies that sale is pitching well And i'm taking the under on a strikeout problem. Now this one has moved. It is now minus 102 on the under When I was looking at this before is plus 104. So clearly there's other interest in sales under but at minus 102 I still think this is a a good spot to buy in the under here So looking at sale mentioned the improved bad at ball data with the sinker not being in the mix The strikeout marks had been mixed depending on the game. He had 11 against the twins So if you tell me that chris sale goes out here and has 12 strikeouts against the fillies I'd be a little bit surprised, but I wouldn't be like blown away by any means But the other games he's had In the sample 11 zero and five strikeouts What that says is he's volatile and I think that what we're seeing at the six and a half number is A bit of overconfidence in what sale is doing I think that there's still a wide range of outcomes here And a wide range of outcomes is good when we're getting it at minus 102 on the under on a very large number at six and a half I have sale projected for 5.6 strikeouts tonight. There's some good cushion here to get towards the under if he does perform pretty well I think that I think that for me the 5 and the 5.6 strikeout projection doesn't matter as much because sale is so Volatile, but if you're looking at the median, I think the median outcome for chris sale is to have fewer than seven strikeouts Which is what we're implying here by taking under six and a half So the bets don't mesh well to go chris sale under six and at strikeouts a minus one or two and take the red socks money line At plus 134, but I've got value in both those numbers So I will take both and individually as opposed to pairing them together because the synergy there is not very good So make the bets individually red socks money line sale under six and a half strikeouts minus one or two I think both those individually are good bets The final bet that I want to recommend here is in the highest profile game on the slate the game you are all itching to bet That is the a's at the royals. I know you are blown away. You thought we wouldn't talk about this game But here we are to break it down. I like the strikeout prop on kyle muller Under three and a half strikeouts is plus 112 at fan dual sportsbook and a lot of times when we have an under a total of three and a half My numbers will show value in the under or the over because You're aggressing kind of towards an average of four or five strikeouts for your league average pitcher So when I ran this I was kind of surprised to see value in the under on muller at three and a half at plus 112 I haven't projected a 3.45 strikeouts. So basically right in line With this projected number here and it does lead to a median strikeout number of about three So I think getting plus odds here at plus 112 Is pretty attractive muller has made six starts so far this year. He has had four strikeouts So hit the over here just once so far. He's had exactly three at every other So it's not like he's going way below this number. It's not a lot to go way below it But he has at the under and all but one starts so far. He's facing the royals They've been trash so far this year to open things, but they haven't been better against lefties than righties Their strikeout rate against lefties around 21 percent on the current active roster So I think we can trust what we've seen so far. We can buy into muller being a low strikeout pitcher Even though this number is very low at three and a half. I do still think it is the right way to go So kyle muller under three and a half strikeouts plus 112 over a fandal sports book the final bet I want to go with So to recap here across baseball Muller under three and a strikeouts plus 112 for a's and royals Sale under six and a strikeouts minus 102 for the red sox and fillies and the red sox money line in that game at plus 134 And the twins won money line at minus 126 taking on the guardians That is all that we have here for today and this week on uncovering the spread Want to give a big thank you once again to tom vecchio for swinging by breaking down his thoughts on tonight's NBA and hl action checkout tom on twitter at dfs underscore tom if you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your bets across tonight and this weekend. Enjoy the derby. Enjoy the weekends We'll talk to you once again on monday to talk about that night's and they'll be slain This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network