 Good evening and welcome to the Institute of International and European Affairs in eight great North Great Georgia Street I'm David O'Sullivan. I'm the director general of the Institute, and it's my very great privilege to Welcome you all this evening to our first hybrid event. So this is we actually have people in the room We've actually had a little wine reception, which is very pleasant Sorry about those of you online. You can make my tour. You might like to open your own bottle But it's a fantastic that our first hybrid event back in the building is organized jointly with the John and Pat Hume Foundation And I'd like to say a special word of thanks and welcome to them Sean Farran and Tim Atwood and it's great that we're able to tonight have the second John Hume peace lecture. I had the honor to deliver the first one last year But online unfortunately in this evening. We're very privileged to have Bridget Laffen who will deliver in this hybrid event her the second in the series We're going to start with a short video describing John's remarkable contribution to to peace and and The European spirit of peace and then I will introduce Bridget and we will begin so please enjoy the video We shall overcome. Thank you Process in Northern Ireland as far as I'm concerned has been most heavily inspired by the inspiration of this place When I first came here in 1979 I tell this story often I went for a walk Across the bridge from Strasbourg to Kale. I stopped and I thought 30 years ago if I had stood in this bridge and said don't worry Although there's 25 million people dead for the second time in a century and For centuries these peoples of Europe have slaughtered one another now. It's all over and in 30 years They will all be together. I Might have been sent to see a psychiatrist but it happened and Let us not forget European Union is the best example as we have learned in the history of the world of conflict resolution and The philosophy that created European Union and the peace of Europe is the philosophy if you study it That is at the heart of our agreement respect for difference and for diversity the creation of institutions which respect that diversity But which allow all sections to work together in their common interests Economics Spill their sweat not their blood and by doing that begin the real healing process of Breaking down the barriers of centuries and the new society evolves That is the philosophy of European Union and it's the philosophy of real peace and might I add That is the philosophy That we should be sending to areas of conflict in the world. We should not be sending armies We should be sending a philosophy and given the philosophy that we have in this building It's a philosophy That will resolve conflict everywhere Because at the end of the day all conflict is about the same thing It's about seeing difference as a threat And what we all have to learn is what the peoples of Europe learned and we are learning in Northern Ireland Difference whether it's your race or your religion or your nationality is an accident of birth And it's not something we should be engaged in conflict about it's something we should respect Thank you very much for your expression today The Nobel Peace Prize was collected by the heads of the EU's three main institutions The ceremony took place in Norway's capital Oslo The European Union was awarded the prize for its role in uniting the continent and bringing about Reconciliation after two world wars the prize is for all Europeans and leaders from across Europe stood to show their support The chairman of the prize committee praised the work of the EU Jean Monnier said that nothing can be achieved without human beings But nothing becomes permanent without institutions The EU has constantly been a central driving force throughout these processes of reconciliation The EU has in fact helped to bring about both the fraternity between nations And the promotion of peace congresses of which Alfred Nobel wrote in his will Germany and France were commended for turning from old enemies into allies The persons here today are German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande make this day very Particular symbolic for all of us, I believe Think of the state of the Union I am reminded of the words of John Schum One of the great Europeans who sadly passed away this year If so many people live in peace today on the island of Ireland It is in large part because of his unwavering belief in humanity and conflict resolution used to say That conflict was about difference and That peace was about respect for difference And as he so rightly reminded this house in 1998 and I quote the European visionaries Decided that difference is not a threat Difference is natural Difference is the essence of humanity and of quote and these I don't know how often I hear that speech of John's the European Parliament It's always incredibly moving and of course with the war in Ukraine It has a resonance today, which we never would have expected to see in our lifetime so this is a Remarkable moment to ask Bridget Laugham to deliver a lecture the second in the series of the John European peace lecture Bridget hardly needs any introduction which of course is always how you begin when you then start to introduce someone But she has a very distinguished academic career She's the emeritus press professor at the European University Institute in Florence and she was director of the Robert Schumann Center there for advanced studies Until her retirement quite recently. She was professor of European politics at the School of Politics and International Relations in UCD She was vice president of UCD and the principal of the College of Human Sciences. She was elected a member of the Royal Irish Academy In 2004 and she is frankly one of our leading public intellectuals and frankly a globally recognized Expert on European politics so nobody could be better placed than to share with us this evening some thoughts on European Union and peace in these convictual times. Please Bridget, Laura's yours Good evening everyone and welcome to all of you who are linking in on online I want to thank the John and Pat Hume Foundation for the honor of delivering this The second European spirit of peace lecture. John is one of my great heroes and he was that extraordinary mixture of He conceptualized how politics could change and how the world could change but he also then worked From morning to night to deliver that new world. He was both a man of action a warrior for peace But also he conceptualized how politics can change even in the most difficult Even in the most difficult circumstances and so for me It's an honor and what better way to start but to listen to john himself both in the european parliament But also the ways in which the european union represented in some senses that centuries-long search in europe for peace it's very poignant To be delivering this lecture this evening because war has returned to our continent that peace that john was so confident of In the european parliament in one of his last speeches is now gone Europe's security architecture is under Like never before in the post-cold war era and there was much more stability and solidity To the cold war era than there is Than there is today. We live in a world of shift and shock We live in a world of tremendous change at every level at the global at the regional at the national and that that Return of peace that sense in which the 24th of february represented a shattering of illusions for europeans And my view is that we shouldn't really have had the illusions that we had but many many people in europe had those illusions They assumed that peace They assumed that war would not return to our continent and we should remember Not just the collapse of ukoslavia and the barbarity that that represented but also Since 2008 we've had a lot of low-grade conflict in europe And john here when he talks of war he says Whenever there is war there's going to be killing Killing of large numbers of human beings Therefore that should never be a method of solving a problem in other words It just leaves human destruction material destruction and also hatred But one can't imagine how ukraine and russia can live side by side together in any sort of peace and Friendship for a very very long time because of the barbarity of what we are seeing So what I want to do this evening is four things Firstly, I want to talk a little about what kind of eu confronts this war in europe in other words What what has the eu become over this last long decade of crisis? Then how europe responded to the war The impact of this war on the eu which I will argue is fundamental and then I will devote quite Some attention to enlargement because this war has brought enlargement back to the center of Of the european of the european agenda, so I'll probably spend more time On enlargement than I will on the others But let me begin by i'm working on a conceptualization of the eu after this decade of crisis And my view is that a lot of the academic literature on the eu Under over argues its weakness and its Every crisis the eu faces is argued as being existential in other words that this is not a robust political system Well, my view is that it is that it's much more robust and resilient than Than is sometimes Then my fellow scholars argue They you know, there's a literature on the eu it fails forward etc etc There's a literature on disintegration Well, my view for what it's worth is that the eu has become hardened by crisis has become more robust through crisis and more resilient And the overall conceptualization of the eu that i'm working on is that the eu has become a collective power And I argue it's become a collective power because other conceptualizations of the eu One that the eu is market power europe in other words, it's all about the material the single market and the brussels effect I think that's a really important pillar of the eu but does not in any way fully Capture the eu Nor do I think that normative power europe captures what the eu is today because normative power europe is a europe That's driven only by values All political systems have attention between interests and values and one should not Assume that the eu is not as driven by interests as all other political systems in the world. So both Both Market power and normative power are important in the eu but what we need to grasp is What this collective capacity of the eu is And how the eu has garnered this Collective capacity and it's a form. It's a way of looking at the eu that looks not on the eu's command power It's power to get a to do b But rather on its ability to get things done its ability to amass resources Amass policy instruments and achieve outcomes. It's outcome driven Now it's a paper that I won't finish until the Probably until next january But i've been working on it for quite quite some time and it's my it's I probably one of my last contributions i will make to the literature on the uh on the eu But collective power europe also looks at capability and on the full and the parts And I have argued Already that this power was in display during brexit the pandemic and now in the war on ukraine And what are the elements of this? How does how does one analyze this collective power inaction? Well, the first is leadership and framing It's firstly Can the eu collectively frame the challenges that it faces How did it for example frame brexit? How did it frame? The pandemic and how did it frame? How did it frame? The war in ukraine and the speed with which it can frame And unity or near unity is very essential to this unless the eu is unified or near almost unified Then its collective power is undermined and then leadership again when you look at the literature on leadership in the eu The assumption is that there is no leadership in the there is no leadership in the eu Or that that leadership is slow That that leadership Doesn't actually get stuff done and again I think the evidence of all those three crises suggests that that's simply not the case But it's a distributed leadership. It involves the european council the commission national capitals And it very much again is driven by the intensity of engagement that we now see in the eu So heads of government today Each of them has a sherpa their sherpa is in constant permanent contact with the sherpas of every head of government across europe It's they they talked to each other on the phone. It's not like it was even 20 years ago when head of government to head of government involved a very orchestrated Very complex orchestration of time of the phone call etc etc So this intensity that we see Just the minute i mentioned the mobile phone that the the intensity The intensity of engagement that we see at all levels across the capitals horizontally, but also vertically to brosses So one part of this collective far Europe is leadership and framing The second oh, excuse me The second is the institutional coordination and what I would call co-creation of policy and We have not done enough work as academics on the way in which the lisbon treaty has altered Inter-institutional relations in the EU Established new roles in the EU like the president of the european council In other words strengthens the collective element in the brosses in the brosses arena And also that co-creation that yes, there are conflicts between council and parliament mostly but They work very closely together now and particularly the council commission relationship The commission is tasked by the european council, but the commission also has a capacity to act itself and does So it's that the way in which this again intensity of engagement And that starts at the level of european council heads of government dan And I looked at the number of bilateral meetings between heads of government and the lead up to the july And recovery and reform package, which was a major breakthrough in european integration There were 36 meetings in the weeks before between collective heads of government All multiple by some of them bilateral some of them trilateral some of them involving four So there's a There's a change in the way this system is working and the way in which I would argue it's being governed And then finally the policy toolkit the eu Has to be experimental. It's a system with a very high level of diversity as john as as john said And when you've very diverse heterogeneous Engagement of different actors, you must be experimental You must search for ways of either using existing tools that you have or using using Creating new ones. So there those are the three elements of of the collective power europe But moving on then to ukraine How did the how did the framing of the war in ukraine happen? Well, it happened in one day There was a heads of government meeting the evening of the 24th of february and It was very clear that the framing was that war had returned to europe That forced and coercion to change borders Had no has no place in the 21st century. It imposed full responsibility on russian aggression and the breaches of international Of international law and that russia would be held accountable For its war crimes or for what it did In terms of the actors and institutions involved The european council has already met five times on the ukraine war But because it was the war zelensky has joined twice biden attended one and then joined another by video. So there's also Out an extra european dimension to this both extending to the east and involving the united states But all council formations every single council has met on ukraine in one form or another be it transport be it health education education for ukrainian refugees etc etc But they've all they have all met and they're exchanging information But also implementing The responses to the war Of course the commission and the eas are major players the commission Understood that there was a war coming or at least Prepared for it and they had done a lot of work on sanctions so that the eu was literally ready to go and that was internal internal commission driven an internal commission dynamic with the eas And it did matter that bonder line had been a minister for defense. She understood at this uh this area and then It's interesting that the eu military committee Not nato is the clearinghouse for weapons requests from ukraine. Why because nato does not want to be drawn into a hot war with russia It wants to try to keep a cordon sanitaire around it because of the threat of nuclear war and so the nato is very happy to outsource the management of the Of the weapons clearing from ukraine to the eu And of course the other big news and this for ireland matters nato and the eu will work much more closely together from now on. It's been building for quite a while But now there will be more eu member states in nato. We've already seen The the change in the dramatic for me change in sweden I was less surprised by the change in in finland But nato eu Will intensify their engagement on security without And that's something that we in this country need to Need to come to terms with In terms of the policy toolkit the eu used every Capacity that it had we're already at six Sanctions packages and there's coordination both with the us and with the uk on on the sanctions regimes to try to watch the loopholes and try to make sure that That that they they stick Again a game changer for me was the use of the european peace facility Within 72 hours was purchasing lethal weapons to send to a third country And that would all could only happen in the circumstance of a a war the eu mobilized its temporary protection directive For the first time ever it's been on the statute books since about 2004 if i'm correct Used it for the first time ever to facilitate ukrainian refugees and then Trade liberalization has already happened And also macroeconomic support so every capability that the eu has Is being used in the war to support ukraine in this war but of course This war isn't just about ukraine. This war has now become Also about the future of the eu and the kind of eu we will live with In the next period and that happened again very quickly 24th of february the invasion first european council the versai The versai meeting on the 10th and 11th of march Where the conclusions or the versai declarations it's called it begins to look at what this means for the eu And it's very clear that it was a french presidency because the words european sovereignty Found their way into the declaration that wouldn't have happened if that meeting was held in any other country In any other member state, but european sovereignty, which is The french conception of open strategic Open strategic autonomy But again, there was a recognition that for the eu that this had implications for defense implications for energy dependency and implications for That the eu needed to look at its entire model of political economy In order to become more robust supply chains digital All of it cyber everything so it's not this war Has led to a transformative agenda for the eu And the eu already had a transformative agenda, which was the green deal and the climate crisis But now added to that is The challenge of the return of war Of war to europe and one of my big fears Is that the war will crowd out the climate agenda and that's a real danger now And yet the climate crisis is the planetary crisis is the Intergenerational crisis and is the future of the world crisis But it's very hard to argue with artillery and bombs. I'm afraid when that happens You have to you have to you have to respond And then in terms of enlargement The declaration said That ukraine was a member or part of the european family And this i'll now turn to enlargement because this is the big Of the many changes that this war has brought it has ratcheted enlargement of the european union agenda In a way that nothing else would have Enlargement was dead. There was enlargement fatigue and i'll talk about the western balkans but This means there is no alternative But to face up to The potential of a european union of 36 states And that's a frightening prospect because the eu is not currently anywhere close to being able to govern this to manage this And the existing member states Have to rethink and reconceptualize what the eu is and will be because of this scale Scale matters in politics as we know and of course the eu will become Much larger, but just look at the original eu That small six member states the club of the defeated Interestingly, you see algeria still part of the eu simply because at that stage Algerian independence was clearly coming but was not yet secure. It was It was a part of metropolitan France, but that was a club of the defeated the and one of the After the war The eu in military terms or sorry european military terms divided cold war NATO war so packed But in economic in terms of the economic framework It's split in western europe between eu and efta And in the 1950s it could not necessarily have been predicted that this club would become the powerful one Because there were two great trading states in europe in western europe at the time Germany was re-emerging as a powerful trading state and the united kingdom was still a very important trading state My i think efta lost Out in this competition for two reasons Institutionally it wasn't as dynamic as the eu But also germany became a much more powerful trading state than the united kingdom with you you paid decline uh, but if you look at the eu today This is eu 27 completely up to date and You will see that it's now continental in scale, but its borders are not finished And if we look at The eu has had seven enlargements But six of those happened before the end of the cold war And so many more have happened Member states have joined so enlargement was a particular phenomenon Related to the collapse of communism in the eastern half of the continent where the people decided Not elites it was the people decided to look west the people decided that they wanted their future political stability And prosperity guaranteed in the eu And I well, I happened to be there in I think it was may 1991 in prague When miterrand was trying to persuade the checks that they really didn't want to become members of the eu but that they That they should become a part of this european confederation that was that miterrand wanted and miterrand and havel were on a stage And miterrand spoke first and he made his pitch for the european confederation And havel just wiped the floor with him and you knew That the return to europe for these states was not a european confederation But it was to be a member state of the eu So we have to think that enlargement is not something that Happens the eu it's been completely intrinsic to the dynamic of european integration a but of course enlargement because a Because enlargement by definition or when you have candidate states by definition you have unsettled borders and political systems and polities prefer settled borders as we know on this Borders are problematic And so it is a That unsettled nature of the borders of the eu have always that widening dynamic have always been a source of stress and tension But the eu now has one two three four five six seven formal candidate states And three potential candidate states, which if they all join brings the total to 37 My view is for what it's worth that turkey will not become a member of the eu or at least on Not for the receivable future, but no one can say it's not a candidate state and it probably makes no sense to do that But that's these are all the other important thing to remember About the eu is it has not been a club of the rich That 72 percent of all of the member states that have joined the eu have been poorer than the core On accession So it's been a club that's been open to countries with much lower levels of development and much weaker Institutions, but there are there's a lot of difficulty in here in terms of capability capacity readiness, etc, etc And of course the story of the western Balkans has been very problematic that the western Balkans got stabilization and association agreements in 99 and then we've had One country getting candidate status accession negotiations beginning with some not with the others. We've had blockages both the Greeks and Bulgarians blocking And so it's been a very the eu's engagement with the western Balkans Has not stabilized that region in the way that for example the eastern enlargement did That it's been a much more problematic Engagement and it's been a bit like waiting for Goddow And it's waiting for Goddow not just because of the eu But these 10 they're small and unstable states And There's freedom house for example in 2019 downgraded Serbia from being free to partially free Now that's a huge problem. And in my view, uh, Serbia should be Candidate status should be taken away from Serbia. I think you've got the EU and I will argue at the end It's got to be much stricter But of course, it's extremely difficult to be strict with countries on the outside when you've urban on the inside and freedom has had Somewhat similar conclusions about the state of Hungary, which is again not a democracy But there are real problems of criminality rule of law And the EU has learned very painfully That it has not been able to stop backsliding of existing member states for in Hungary and in poland So if the weakness of the internal instruments to address backsliding have been Has been very problematic and there's been resistance in existing member states to yet more enlargement So the argument is that The the argument for enlargement fatigue revolves around an argument about absorption capacity That the EU the big bang enlargement of the mid 2000s stretched the EU's capacity and that is really Almost I think young Chris said it in 14 no enlargements in my during my my my presidency Uh, but of course, there isn't just fatigue. There's also in member states a certain resistance and a worry About what a union of 36 might look like how you absorb all of these states And remember that we worry a lot in small countries about the large states The large states worry a lot about what they call the tyranny of the time In other words the capacity of small states to make life difficult in the in the So enlargement has been on the back burner for For a long time As well as during all of this you had the presence of You had the presence of other powers being very active in the Balkans the russians and the chinese so The EU makes this enlargement challenge after a lot of enlargement fatigue enlargement resistance And a sense in which enlargement has become almost technocratic process rather than polity making But in my view all that changed on the 24th of february And it changed and this is again something that we must remember The reason it changed was the agency of the ukrainians themselves if As putin Expected he'd rolled into Kievan three days And we know that some of the forward battalions had their dress their dress uniforms with them because they thought they'd have their victory march pretty quickly If that had happened the west would have imposed sanctions There'd be a lot of ringing of hands the sanctions would have been draconian But we wouldn't be talking about the enlargement of the union So we have to really salute The resist that the sheer will of the ukrainians To take this on because it's their blood it's their cities and it's their future And so and it's their agency and they are if you look at what Firstly how russia has conducted the war, but also at what his what he what he the aim is Is to destroy ukraine and to have a buffer a buffer zone around vassal states around Russia and what happens in ukraine has implications For all maldova georgia So this war Matters to the future of europe in ways that we're only beginning to really get a handle on And Ukraine cannot lose this war if ukraine loses this war Then the future of europe in my view is very is very different So what was remarkable was the speed with which ukraine Demanded membership it four days into the war A ukraine formally applies to become a member state of the And was very smart politics because if you're If you're facing what they say what what they were facing back then and still face Then you also need to have some perspective in the future and of course the copycat Domino effect came into play immediately with maldova and georgia And what I find again remarkable is all three countries, but particularly ukraine answered the commission's questionnaire the commission True to form sentence questionnaires If you if you want us to issue if if the european council asks us to issue an opinion We need answers to the following questions Well, the ukrainian said if you want if you have questions, we will answer and they will not be the best But it wasn't there was a lot of concern because obviously a country at war But also the readiness of these countries to join the eu their level of economic development the state of democracy, etc, etc But because it was a war and because of ukraine agency in my view It was inevitable that it would have been extremely difficult for the eu to deny Candidate status and as we know the commission on the 17th of june granted Granted Candidate said at least advise the european council While identifying The usual conditionalities in the political the economic And that famous need to be able to implement the akim It was clear to me that once all the heads of government went to kiv Before the european council of the 23rd and 4th of june it was a done deal It was clear that the european council would support candidate status for two of the three countries and They very clearly say that the future of all three countries Lies within the european union And that then candidate status would be granted to the ukraine and to moldova And of course then the hedging the bets Will depend on meeting the kopenhagen criteria Taking consideration into consideration the eu's capacity to The eu's capacity to to implement now Given that this will involve a very big shift In the eu if we're thinking of an eu party 6 There's been a reemergence of a lot of debate on what's called differentiated integration or integration A europe of concentric circles a multi speed etc etc I think the important distinction is between multi speed and multi end Multi speed means that countries will join the eu That they will approach the same end And will do so Over over time but multi end means different forms of membership and any Poor country the rich if you're norway the united kingdom or switzerland you can afford to have multi end relationships with the eu But if you're ukraine moldova and any country in the western volcans You rightly want the seat of the table and full membership So multi end Only works for for some Um Obviously the other important dimension is geography and territory and how much How much differentiation you can have within the eu based on on territory or concentric circles And then multi menu different levels of Policy engagement the eu already has Very significant what's called variable geometry But what are the ideas out there? Well firstly our friend Andrew duff has been arguing for a new form of membership called affiliate membership An affiliate membership would be much more than the existing association agreements based on partnerships Greater access to eu institutions for the countries in the partnerships And would be open to any existing member state that wanted to go down Into an affiliate membership rather than full membership. It's all about the uk in my view and andrew and i have debated this Have debated this at length but in in in in response to this he sees The eu core would need a much stronger federal government And that you would have a european security council Now i'm going to pass over what he says about the institutions because i don't think there's a hope in hell it'll ever happen Leta very similar talks of seven unions sectoral integration across foreign policy asylum energy, etc concentric circles geography with a highly integrated federal hard call And the and this the this is the one area that i really agree with him on the veto and unanimity Has to be addressed. So let the enrico leta former and then we have mackles european political community Which is very resonant of mito ha and his european confederation And for mackle this european organization Could engage in a lot of coordination cooperation future partnerships Now he has said It can be a lead up to membership but doesn't prevent membership And interestingly the european council Again because it was a french presidency uses the term european political community in its conclusions And european council conclusions are the bible and if you have something there then it can be worked on thereafter And this would Offer a platform to all of the neighborhood to all of the neighborhood countries Interestingly the european council said while respecting the eu's decision making processes. So again the protective the protective mechanism coming in But the only reason i'm introducing all of these is to say that there are a lot of ideas floating out there On how the eu addresses this next massive wave of enlargement Uh so In my view and this is uh my very simplistic terms in my view we need to Seize thinking of enlargement as a ladder to be climbed and see it rather more as blocks of Work policy areas that a country may get access to Before full membership and the way to do it is not to the accession treaty because that's a one-off The way to do it is enhanced association agreements And you could well begin to have you could well begin to see that in the in the next wave So then i'm now going to finish. There is nothing but challenge here for the eu The enlargement will be very difficult very tricky It will matter on the timing and sequencing It can't be the unforeseen future For example, I would argue Bulgaria rumania joined the eu when they weren't ready, but it was much better for them and the eu they were in And I would say that what the eu needs to do Is there must be internal eu reform And particularly the veto you cannot have A an eu of 36 states with every country being able to To veto important areas of cooperation and we only think need to think back to the history of Poland Where they effectively destroyed the country because of the veto A Security will be much more important in the future of this eu than it was in the past And here one has to think about Ukraine will not become a member of natals So what security guarantees can be you but also member states give you crane because they're going to need some or else They're not going to be secure enough in the in the future But regardless Defense and security has also ratcheted up the eu agenda And in the eu it would be around areas like pesco It would be to make sure that if the member states are now about to spend a lot more on defense That they do so with far more effectiveness than they have in the past The e the problem although defense expenditure has declined The biggest problem is the lack of interoperability Across Europe. There is an enormous waste of money in this field in europe and europe can no longer Indulge itself in that way because we also have to think about the emergence of a trump or trump like presidency in the in the united states an increasingly polarized country A country where in in the wrong hands a president could simply withdraw article five simply Void article five and then the europeans we will have no option including this small island But to decide how we defend ourselves in a world of great power competition and increasing security threat I think it would be very important to be able to reverse there has to be carrots for Candidate states, but also sticks because we cannot have a future in which new member states or existing member states can backslide On either the rule of law or basic democratic values and practice And then there has to be extraordinary support for these countries Their state capacity is much weaker than existing member states And then there will have to be an enhanced neighborhood policy And one has to hope that at some stage in the future European-russian relations will Restabilize and become positive rather than negative. I don't know when that can happen. I don't know It will happen, but I don't know when it could be a very very long time because the legacy of this war Will be a shadow over europe and we still don't know The outcome of the war I'll simply end by saying That what john said in the european parliament all those years ago still holds That this continent Given its history and given the level of diversity and heterogeneity And the nature of the international system we now live in in my view has no choice But to get its house in order to maintain its house in order Because without it This will become a very ungovernable part of the world and when you don't have good government Then you have all sorts of other problems. So thank you very much, and I look forward to your question Well, bridget, thank you so much. What a tour de force. I I think You you've raised the bar even higher than my speech of last year So good luck to whoever comes next year, right? Listen, we don't have a huge amount of time and I I could ask you lots of questions I just wanted to make one personal remark You were right to make the emphasis on enlargement and the challenges and I think you did it brilliantly Um, I think the part of the issue is the nature of joining the european union I remember being in the oval office with bill clinton and romano brody in 1999 And linton was pushing turkish membership of the eu and and Romano, you know in his way said, yeah, you know bill it'd be like mexico becoming the 51st state of the union And all the advisers but no no no no and then bill clinton said hey, I kind of get what you mean Yeah, that's that's a really interesting perspective and it is true that membership of the european union It's not the same as joining nato. It's not the same as joining the wto or joining the council of europe It is linking your your economy your politics Your your your societies in irreversible ways for the moment except for brexit The other thing I loved was by the way your map of 1957 reminding us that the first country to leave the eu was algeria, right? So listen, since this is our first hybrid meeting I'm going to go straight to the floor to demonstrate that we do have people in the room That this is not just a virtual occasion and we have a roving mic there And I will luke has the mic who would like to ask the first question Barbara thank you. Hello, pretty and I just wanted to say you know one thing you didn't mention It's the whole financial aspect of being a member of the european union, of course hugely important to these countries. I mean they see algerado And and they've seen you know the development that has happened across the eu but also I think that um Anything less than membership and I mean these are all interesting ideas I think always looks very much second best and very much not what these countries aspire to and unless One of these sort of pathway houses if you like Can actually, you know, give them some perspective in terms of also making final membership But also, you know, some of the the carrots coming on the string as well as the sticks And I really don't see any of them flying because it will never be seen as The desirable thing uh for them to do So I just um like to If you agree, I'll take one or two questions and then because otherwise we Any other? Yes Luna Thanks, Bridget. You know Bridget, you put a certain emphasis on the need to give the future to reconsider the veto and unanimity I'm just wondering whether you included in that concept the legal situation whereby in passing legislation the inactive legislation council can only act By qualified majority vote With the agreement of the commission and requires unanimity to go against the agreement of the commission because if you would Do away with that principle you change the whole Configuration of the EU institutions and the relative power and influence of the commission in particular Thank you Barry And then for develop that you were fine Oh, Bridget, thank you. Thank you so much a quick one. What do you think the EU institutions can or should do to address democratic backsliding in current or prospective member states given the risk of poses to peace and social cohesion Thanks. Well, no challenge there. You you have 30 seconds. Okay, right? So it's a firstly Barbara on with national aspects absolutely right But if you think about the EU budget is a relatively small budget but what if you kick start And it can elevate companies based infrastructure their educational system So in my view, it's an absolutely necessary company of Entry to what is a very tough competitive market You've got to have solidarity in my view and I think the structural funds have been in both by introducing planning and all of that have been brought a very great success Not always, but Not all countries have used structural funds well or wisely. We probably I would say in this country ended up with too many golf courses That's another that's another matter. I fully agree with you on membership in second That anything less than for membership for these companies would be seen as second best and therefore Whatever european with the community emergency if it does Then will only be a staging for for these countries would be only a staging, but it may be something that other countries like the security council in the UK in all ways Might might want I also think that the EU already has a core And the core of the EU are all those countries that are in everything So it's an open core It's not a clue, but those who argue for The so-called mildly with a hard better record They really do want a tiered political system and that doesn't in my view work. So I I fully agree I fully agree with you Una on on the veto when I When I say the need to look at the veto So I think it has to be looked at really carefully in foreign policy And there I think what you're looking for is not traditional QMD But consensus minus one or two in other words to prevent one country being able I think you would have to expand Significantly the use of QMD across policy fields Just to ensure That the EU could could act but on the On the Requirement to the council commission Unlimited but that's part of the institution of balance. That's not the that's not what I'm talking about I'm talking more about the capacity of member states to veto And so I fully I fully agree with the importance of the institution of balance and the protection of the commission because uh Without the commission The EU does not have the knowledge power the fire power To develop collective policy Without the commission you simply can't get I'm thinking to the mff and the recovery fund But there was a lot of work done on the recovery fund in the euro group necessary to get the the To get the finance ministries on board But the actual package Could only It's the only institution capable of constructing packages Because you know, I it's the label technocratic. It's also the knowledge carl house of this system And without it the system would be in trouble. And then what the EU could do about backsliding I think it was most unfortunate that urban started backsliding in 2010 as the EU was entering the etude phase of the original crisis The there simply was not enough political capacity in the system That handled all of the time and then he got away with too much and as he got away with too much he He then became emboldened and did more And remember that all but all one started Controlling the hungarian political system from the bottom up He didn't start with the problem. He started so he doesn't support them So he fractured a stage And I'm I'm more About Poland because Poland has continued to have a viable opposition But can I tell you what I would do with them? I would love them with auditors and make their lives That's what I would do. I would send Auditors to all of everything because you will find it. The corruption is there on the system structure from their lives Article seven was designed for one rule to say to the EU It was designed at a time of optimism about democracy and transition and the permanence The end of history And we know that's not our word But if we actually talk about political development in Europe and talk about the histories of all of this part of Europe they've had very weak democratic traditions and democratic experience And a lot of contestation around borders minorities. So we should not be surprised And so for me, it's not and I know that there are A lot of my colleagues who might have tremendous respect for they're fighting the rule of law fight every single day calling it out And I think that's necessary If this is episodic Then there isn't a problem long term general intergenerational change we sorted over time But if it becomes a permanent feature of the EU Then that that is a problem But one thing we should welcome at least is that the EU has become a far less diplomatic and far less alike system There was a time when heads of government would be green or be critical of a fellow head of government around the table It was simply not done That's no longer the case Things are called out by heads of government after we've seen, you know, real rousals But real rousals are good. That's that's politics. But my I would I would use the conditionalities the rule of law conditionalities for the rrs and things like that On Poland at the moment, I think there's a very Deleted balance between ensuring that Poland is healthy account While also helping Poland given the pressure that it's under from the war you think So I think I think it's not I don't think it's I don't think it's as easy a case I think there's a real challenge to the EU in keeping that balance and as we see within the commission It's called a lot of conflict and a lot of soul searching because there are no easy ends But auditories I would make their lives paperwork very Thank you very much. I'm very conscious of passing time And so I'm going to take just one question from our one of our online audience from jack o' sullivan of irish solar innovations, which I think Gives us a question with a Brings us from full circle from the beginning saying after such a wonderful and uplifting opening to the seminar and john Hume's devotion to peace so perfectly expressed. I have one question What would john's advice be today in response to russia's invasion of ukraine and the on-going? So I I think john would recognize That this war was not something that ukraine wanted or asked for It was something that they were invaded And I think john was not a pacifist He didn't like war And For good reason because no one I mean no saying human being should should want war But I think he would recognize ukraine agency Thank you Well, we're going to have closing words from john farron the chairman of the john and pat hume foundation. So perhaps no better person to Maybe provide also an answer to that question Sean, please Thank you very much indeed. David David said i'm chair of the board of the john and pat hume foundation But before I proceed with expressing The board and the foundations. Thanks to all those who've been involved in Organizing this evening's event. I would like to make on behalf of the foundation presentations to bridget and belatedly to to david and Oh, thank you Thank you My son won a painting believe it or not on zelensky And so this is going to go beside zelensky Thank you I want to express of course our very sincere. Thanks to professor bridget For a wonderfully stimulating lecture The analysis and the views she expressed I think would have been strongly very strongly endorsed by john and pat hume deeply committed europeans that both of them were indeed pat Often recalled that the first time she heard john speak in public Was that a debate in dairy? Where the motion was that ireland should join The european common market So from his earliest Ventures onto the public stage john made no secret of his support for the european project And as we know he remained one of its strongest advocates Throughout his political career So thank you bridget for your contribution In john and pat's honor Thanks also to David ambassador david For moderating this evening's event and david of course inaugurated The series of lectures dedicated the memory of john and pat hume last year The foundation also wishes to express its thanks to the institute For agreeing to host this evening's event. And so we thank Barry colfer and his team And we thank also members of the board and in particular rory quinn who's been with us this evening And rory assures me that There will be plenty of opportunities for cooperation between the foundation And the institute as we Both develop our respective programs Our thanks to our own foundations general secretary tim atwood For all the hard work that he has put into organizing this evening's event Very typical of tim Indefatigable in Undertaking all the responsibilities that fall to him. So thank you very much indeed tim And finally let me Thank yourselves whether here in person Or with us virtually We trust you will keep in touch with The foundation as we develop our programs The foundation has been established and in the public domain only a year and a half at this stage It's been established to both commemorate The memory of john hume the contribution that he made And indeed supported in making that contribution by his wife pat But also to sustain and to develop The principles and the values that john Stood by and articulated throughout his public career So I hope that you will keep in touch with us our website is hume foundation dot org and with that I invite you to a mingle and to Sup a glass or two of wine And thank you again for your attendance and thanks in particular to david and to bridge It for their great contribution. Thank you