 Good evening as friends, welcome to the Hindu News Analysis by Shankar A.S. Academy for the date 7th of February 2023. Displayed here are the list of news articles we will be going through today. Now let's start our discussion. Look at this news article here. It talks about the economic crisis in Pakistan. Pakistan is seeking its 13th bailout from IMF. See this graph here. It shows how the prices of essential commodities have risen in the recent years. The IMF funding is critical for Pakistan because it is left with only around 3.1 billion dollars in its forex reserves. In India we have around 550 billion dollars in our forex reserves. This is for comparison. Pakistan's 3.1 billion dollar can only cover 3 weeks of its imports. But IMF bailouts comes with certain conditionalities. For instance, the IMF views the poor performance of the power sector as a major threat to the Pakistan's economy. The IMF therefore demands to discontinue the exception for lifeline electricity consumers that is those consuming under 300 units. This category makes up almost 88% of the country's power consumers. So the people of Pakistan will be unhappy. But there seems to be no other choice for the Pakistani government. So Pakistan has finally accepted the stringent conditionalities of IMF. The article gives us glimpse of how the various economic figures have been working out in the country. For example, see this graph. This graph shows the share of the total revenue and total expenditure in the GDP. From the graph, we can observe that in financial year 2022, the total revenue as a share of GDP decreased to 12% while the total expenditure as a share of GDP neared 20%. This is a huge gap. Besides this, if you can see this graph, it shows the year-wise total debt and liabilities of Pakistan. We can see how it is raising. In this discussion, we shall try to understand why Pakistan resorts to IMF bailouts very often. And we will see what are the major economic concerns in the country. There are many reasons as to why Pakistan is facing economic crisis quite often. We will see them one by one. Firstly, there is the problem with the economic model itself. See in the beginning, Pakistan economy was largely based on private enterprises. But later, significant sectors of it were nationalized in the early 1970s, including the financial services, manufacturing and transportation. All the changes were made in 1980s under the military government of Zia al-Huk. To be more precise, an Islamic economy was introduced. This Islamic economy outlawed many practices that are forbidden by the Saria Muslim law. That is, charging interest on loan was forbidden and traditional religious practices such as payment of Zikr which is an obligatory tax required for Muslims were mandated. And now portions of the Islamic economy in Pakistan is still surviving. This is the first problem. Secondly, as the article highlights, Pakistan is highly reliant on imports. See Pakistan does not produce any machinery that is crucial for manufacturing and infrastructure development. So they are very heavily reliant on import. Pakistan exports mainly textiles and agriculture related goods. So Pakistan's economy basically lacks technological sophistication. The country's imports have seen a significant raise over the years, but exports have remained largely stagnant. This widened the trade deficit in Pakistan. This is the second reason. Then when it comes to the energy sector, Pakistan is very vulnerable to hikes in global oil and gas prices. The populist measures of subsidies further aggravated the situation. See Pakistan tried to keep the petroleum prices cheap for the country's population even when the global oil prices rose. This may sound good, but the cost must be borne by someone, right? I am compelled to make this reference now. See India hiked the fuel prices when global oil prices went up. That way the government had to face little criticism. But ultimately India did not get through such a trap as Pakistan now. This is the third issue. Fourthly, weak governance and political instability. See weak governance and political instability have been significant factors in weakening investor confidence in the country. This also contributed to corruption and pork barrel politics that undermined the country's physical position. Know that pork barreling is an allocation of public funds and resources to targeted electors for political purposes. There is also allegations of state-ponsored terrorism and illegal opium trading, which undermines the credibility of the country. Then there are high levels of borrowing. The total debt and liabilities reached 59,000 billion Pakistani rupees, which is 89 percent of the GDP in financial year 2020. The total debt has consistently risen over the years and peaked at 93.8 percentage in financial year 2020. Of the total outstanding bilateral debt owed by Pakistan, China alone accounts for about 35 percent. In other words, we can say that Pakistan has fallen into the debt trap diplomacy of China. Then Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate-linked disasters such as flood. The loss in gross domestic product as the direct impact of the floods is projected to be around 2.2 percentage of GDP in the year 2022. This damage and loss in agriculture has pillow effects on the industry, external trade and service sector. Besides this, large population had been displaced, which further aggravated the economic crisis. See, these are the major reasons why Pakistan's economy has been constantly in crisis. This is also the reason why in the past 40 years, Pakistan has seeked IMF bailout for a record number of 13 times. So that's all regarding this discussion. In this discussion, we saw the current economic conditions of Pakistan and we also saw what are the reasons that makes Pakistan's economy always stay in a crisis condition. With this, let us conclude this discussion and take up the next news article. Look at this article here. On February 4th, the US military shot down a Chinese air balloon which was detected over the Montana state of USA. The United States is claiming that it was a surveillance balloon, whereas China is saying that it was a civilian meteorological balloon that got drifted, of course. The shooting down of such a air balloon has sparked a diplomatic crisis and has strained the already weakening US-China relations. This crisis has led to calling of a highly anticipated visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to China. This is about the article. In this context, let us understand about the Thucydides trap. The Thucydides trap is a term which got popularized by the American political scientist Graham T. Allison. Allison used this term to explain the likelihood of conflict between a racing power and a currently dominant one. So the trap refers to the tendency in which conflict can erupt when a dominant power is challenged by a growing power. It is now primarily used to describe the potential conflict between the United States and China. Here the United States is referred as a dominant power whereas China is referred as a growing power. With this understanding, now we will see whether China and USA can escape this trap, that is the eventual war between China and USA. As we all know, the USA and China are currently facing rising tensions in trade, technology, cyberspace and even in the South China Sea area. If you look at the history, the relationship between a racing power and a hegemonic power often ends up with severe conflict, that is war. See, there are some possible ways which can prevent both the countries from falling under this trap. Now we will see them one by one. The first and the foremost solution is consistent dialogue. The USA and China should strive to create a common forum for continuous dialogue. This will engage both the countries in finding a solution to the existing conflict rather than escalating it. Both China and the USA should also need to end their arms race. Due to power struggle, both the countries are involved in mass arms production. This poses a threat to other nations also because if war erupts between the US and China, the impact will be felt all over the world, just like the impact we are facing because of the Russia-Ukraine War. So ending arms race will also ease tensions between the countries. Apart from this, both China and USA should respect each other's ideology. As we all know, the USA is a capitalist country whereas China is a communist country. Both are different in their core ideas, so developing a tolerant mindset in both the countries will de-escalate the situation and by following these three basic steps, both the countries can prevent falling into the trap. So that's all regarding this discussion. With this, let us conclude this discussion and take up the next news article. Have a look at this editorial article. This article talks about the freedom of speech. Now why is this in use today? This is because recently the Supreme Court has made a judgment in Kushal Kishore's case regarding freedom of speech. In this case, the Supreme Court declared that the fundamental rights including the freedom of speech of Indians are exerciseable not only vertically but also horizontally. See in Kushal Kishore's case, the question put before the Supreme Court was whether the fundamental rights can be claimed other than against the state or its instrumentalities. So the Supreme Court concluded that the fundamental rights can be enforced even against persons other than the state and its instrumentalities. This is the reason why freedom of speech made news today. Now coming to the article. The editorial article speaks about the evolution of freedom of speech and also about the horizontal and vertical application of freedom of speech. So in this context, let us learn about the evolution of freedom of speech in India, then about the constitutional provisions regarding freedom of speech. And finally, you will learn about the significance of freedom of speech. Okay. Before that, the syllabus regarding this discussion is highlighted here for your reference. You can go through it. Now let's start. First let's understand about the evolution of freedom of speech. See it is believed that the idea of free speech may have been emerged from the values of the Roman republics because some sources say that the values of the Romans provided for freedom of speech and freedom of religion. Apart from this, the constitutional rights to freedom of speech and expression had been legally established by the England's Bill of Rights 1689. After this, in 1789, the French Revolution reaffirmed the freedom of speech as an inalienable right. Then in 1791, the first amendment was made to the United States Constitution. It made freedom of speech a basic feature of the constitution by constituting the Bill of Rights. See, this adoption of constitutional provision is a significant event because as we all know, the idea to provide fundamental rights to Indian citizens was inspired from the USA's Bill of Rights. Then comes the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights is an international document adopted by the United Nations General Assembly. It established the rights and freedoms to all members of the human race. It was accepted by the United Nations General Assembly during a session in December 10, 1948. The Article 19 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights states that everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression. This rights include right to hold opinion without interference and to seek, receive and import information and ideas through media and regardless of frontiers. This Universal Declaration of Human Rights also inspired India to provide right to freedom of opinion and expression. Now, let's take the specific case of India. As we all know, under the colonial era, the liberties of Indians were severely restricted. The actions of the British Empire actually curbed the freedom of expression and speech of Indian masses. By imposing various laws like the Sedition Law, Hate Speech Law etc., the British took every possible way to curb opinion among the Indians. This was done in order to suppress the revolutionary sentiments prevailing among the masses. As most of our constitution makers were freedom fighters, they realized the need for freedom of speech and expression. So, they borrowed the idea of freedom of speech from the democratic ideas laid in the American Constitution. In India, the freedom of speech and expression enjoys a special position. Its importance can be easily understood by the fact that the preamble of the constitution itself ensures all citizens the liberty of thought, expression, belief, faith and worship. Then, the freedom of speech is also transformed as a fundamental right under Article 19. Now, we will see the constitutional provision of freedom of speech in India. The Article 19, Class 1, subclass A of the Constitution provides for the freedom of speech and expression to the citizens of India. Now, is this right absolute? No. The right to freedom of speech and expression is not absolute. It is subject to some reasonable restriction. The restrictions are provided in Article 19, Class 2 of the Constitution. It says that the freedom of speech and expression shall not affect the operation of any existing law or it shall not prevent the state from making any law. Does it include all laws? No. It includes only laws that are made or is going to be made in the interest of the sovereignty and integrity of India, the security of the state, friendly relationship with foreign countries, public order, decency or morality are in relation to contempt of court, defamation or incitement to an offense. In similar terms, Article 19, Class 2 of the Constitution says that the government can impose reasonable restriction on freedom of speech and expression to protect the above said interest. Overall, Article 19, Class 1, subclass A provides the right to freedom of speech and expression to the citizens of India, while Article 19, subclass 2 imposes the state to impose some reasonable restriction to the right to freedom of speech and expression. With this understanding, now we will see about the significance of freedom of speech and expression. Firstly, freedom of speech ensures active participation of the people in the democratic process. The freedom of speech helps the citizens to actively participate in the smooth functioning and operation of democracy. This in turn helps in proper decision making. Secondly, freedom of speech helps to express beliefs and attitudes. See, India is a large country. In such a country like India, where peoples of different faith, caste and creed exist, the freedom of speech helps in proper expression of beliefs and attitudes. Thirdly, self-fulfillment and development. The freedom of speech helps the citizen to exchange their ideas and opinions effectively and freely. This assists in the healthy development of the citizen and also provides significant self-fulfillment. And finally, the freedom of speech provides for open discussion. For a healthy functioning of democracy, open discussions is a must. In order to discover the truth and to facilitate healthy and sound decision making, open discussions is a must. To ensure open discussion, freedom of speech is a must. These are all the significance of freedom of speech. Now finally before concluding, let us understand the difference between horizontal and vertical application of fundamental rights. In India, generally, fundamental rights are enforceable against the state. But in few cases, fundamental rights can be enforced against private individuals also. See, there are two applications of fundamental rights. They are vertical and horizontal. The vertical rights are rights that can be applied only against the public authorities, while horizontal rights are applied against private actors. In India initially, vertical application of rights was sufficient. But the growing power of the private actors has made this vertical application insufficient. So to deal with such kind of circumstance, the courts in India have used the horizontal application of rights. So the individuals can also enforce his fundamental rights against private individuals also. This is what we saw in the beginning. That is, recently in the Kushal Kishore case, the Supreme Court concluded that fundamental rights can be enforced even against persons other than the state and its instrumentalities. That is all regarding this discussion. In this discussion, we saw about the evolution of freedom of speech. Then we saw about the constitutional provisions in India regarding freedom of speech. After that, we saw about the significance of freedom of speech. Finally, we saw the difference between vertical and horizontal application of freedom of speech. That is all regarding this discussion. Now let us conclude this and take up the next news article. Take a look at this editorial article. This article talks about the village defense guards. Recently, there have been increase in terror related incidents in Jammu and Kashmir. Mainly in the border districts of Rajouri and Ponch. See these two districts are located near the line of control which is the de facto border with the Pakistan administered Jammu and Kashmir. You can see that in the image given here. Now the problem here is the raising terror related incidents in the region. So the demand for the revival of the erstwhile village defense committees has emerged. This is to counter terrorist activities in the region. In this context, let us understand few facts about village defense committees and the reason for its creation. We also will see about the village defense guards and some of the important points mentioned in this news article. Before getting into the discussion, I have highlighted the syllabus regarding this discussion here. You can go through it. Now let's start our discussion. So first let us see what is this village defense committees. The village defense committees were first formed in the erstwhile Dhoda district in mid-1990s as a force multiplier against militant attacks. Its main aim was to provide residents of remote hilly villages with weapons and give them arms training to defend themselves. Why was this committee actually set up? See in the mid-1990s, the militancy that began in Kashmir was spread to the adjoining Dhoda district. Here, militancy means using violence or aggressiveness to support a cause. Usually, militancy occurs in support of political or social cause. Now coming back. See the demand for arming the civilian population first rose after the massacre of 13 people in Kishtwar in 1993. Following this, in 1995, the Home Ministry decided to set up the village defense committees. Under the scheme, each village defense committee used to have a special police officer as its person in charge and there will be 10-15 other volunteer members who are mostly ex-service personnel. They were given rifles and ammunitions. The special police officer is in charge of the village defense committee and he was paid whereas the other volunteers were unpaid. Later, the scheme was expanded to other areas of Jammu division as militancy extended their activities to Udhampur, Rasai, Rajori, Ponch, Kautan, Sambha districts. Since the regions had poor road connectivity, it delayed the arrival of the security forces on the time of terrorist threat. On the other hand, the villagers who were well versed with the local topography stalled the militant attack until the arrival of the security forces. Initially, the village defense committee proved successful but it was not without its share of issues. There was recent allegations of crime including abduction and rape by the members of the village defense committees. The village defense committee also faced allegations of human rights violation. So over the period of time, the number of village defense committee members has dropped significantly and after some time they ceased to exist due to lack of government support. Right now, due to an increase in case of targeted killings in Jammu and Kashmir, the government has felt the need to arm the civilians. So they have renamed the village defense committees as village defense guards. The members of the village defense guards are called the VDGs. This change was not brought only to the name but also to the very structure of the committee itself. For example, unlike the village defense committee where only the special police officer was paid, all the village defense guards are paid. The village defense guard also function under the direction of the senior superintendent of police or the superintendent of police in the district consent. But similar to the village defense committee, the aim of the village defense guards is to instill a sense of self-protection and ensure safety and security of the border villages. The village defense guards are to be charged with the responsibility of protecting community installations and infrastructural facilities within the defined area of their villages. Like the village defense committee, the members of the village defense guards will be provided with the gun and 100 rounds of ammunition. So the village defense guards will play a crucial role in maintaining the security in the rural regions of Jammu and Kashmir. And they are responsible for providing intelligence to the security forces and help in counter-insurgency operation. The village defense guards will also serve as a deterrent to terrorists. Even though village defense guards are modified versions of village defense committees, people feel the present methodology of being under the superintendent of police, that is a top-down approach, may be not an ideal arrangement because the present arrangement might be found lacking in terms of close supervision at the execution level. So people now are asking to bring back the old village defense committee. So that's all regarding this discussion. In this discussion, we saw about the village defense committee, its flaws and the recently launched village defense guards. I want you guys to comment in the comment section about your view about the arming of civilian population by the government. Is it ethical or not? So that's all regarding this discussion. With this, let us conclude this and take up the next news article. Take a look at this text and context article. This article talks about voice deepfakes. So in our discussion today, we will go through what is voice cloning, how they are generated, used, misused and differentiated. Voice deepfake is one that closely mimics a real person's voice. The voice can accurately replicate tonality, accents, cadence and other unique characteristics of the target person. Here cadence is the timing or flow of sentences. Now, how are these voice deepfakes created? They are created using AI and large computing power. To make the AI work, the first step is to feed the training data to the AI models. Here, the training data is the original recordings of the target person's voice. Using the training data, AI can then make and create synthetic voice. And this synthetic voice is then used to say anything the person making the voice deepfake wants. Although the procedure sounds very simple here, it takes a lot of computing power. Depending upon the availability of the computing power and the level of clarity required, generating a deep voice fake might take hours, days or even months. Now, here I have displayed the tools used for making voice clones. I am exposing you to these names because in the prelims examination, UPSC might highlight these names and ask you to find the similarity or the commonality between these. So, there is a potential prelims question here. Now moving on, we will see about the ways in which voice deepfakes can be detected. Actually, determining whether the given voice is original voice or a deep fake voice is very difficult. It requires advanced technologies, software and hardware. But even after having advanced technologies, software and hardware, it is not exactly accurate to determine whether the given voice sample is original or deep fake. So, the cybersecurity professionals have not yet developed a foolproof method of detecting whether the given voice sample is deep fake or original. So, it is still unclear how to detect the originality of the voice. Moving on, let us see about the threats arising from the use of voice deepfakes. See, attackers are using this technology to defraud users and steal their identity. And they are using the stolen identity for conducting various illegal activities like phone scams and posting fake videos on social media platform. Although there is some potential use for creating voice deepfakes, currently the technology is entirely misused. For example, in Morgan Neville's documentary film on the late legendary chef Antony Bourdain, he used voice cloning software to make Mr. Bourdain say worse he never spoke. See, this sparked high criticism. So, the threat associated with voice deepfakes outweigh the advantages associated with it. So, that's all regarding this discussion. In this discussion, we saw some of the basics about voice deepfakes. With this, let us conclude the news article discussion session and take up the practice films questions. We have two practice films questions today. Let us see them one by one. Let us take up the first question. This is a three statement question. Three statements about deepfakes is given. We have to find the correct statements. Let us take up the first statement. Deepfakes are modified images, text, audio, and video, or synthetic media created with the help of artificial intelligence. This statement is correct, as we saw in the discussion. Let us take up the second statement. The existence of deepfakes causes distrust among the public. This statement is also correct. Distrust is one of the main threat associated with deepfakes. Moving on to the third statement, the existing legal framework in India criminalizes deepfake. Actually, this statement is wrong. The existing legal framework of many countries, including India, does not criminalize deepfakes. So, statement one is correct. Statement two is correct. Statement three is incorrect. So, the correct answer here is option A, one and two only. See, this is a quiz question for you. Interested aspirants can comment the answer for this question in the comment section. The main questions based on today's discussion are displayed here. Interested aspirants can write the answers and post it in the comment section. If you like today's video, like, comment, and share it with your friends. For more updates regarding UPSC preparation, subscribe to Shankarai's Academy's YouTube channel. Thank you for listening.