 Okay, natural gas right? You got it. So it's Thursday. We're gonna get those EIA natural gas numbers I just pulled up kind of the whisper number here. So we're looking at a decline of about 200. I think that's gonna be 200,000 barrels in there We'll pull it up in a moment But nonetheless jumping back to the natural gas chart looking at the April contract trading just under 285 we were up there briefly on a couple occasions just after 9 o'clock and just after 8 o'clock this morning So I jumped in here. We're gonna look at maybe we get those numbers to 1030 I jumped to so 285 is a nice price point if you want exposure to the upside and the downside you're right next to that level The Newen's and the 11's both line up with 285 being a price point, which is nice All right, so I started off with the Newen's which we usually prefer give us a little time an hour and a half After we get those inventory numbers. I pulled up here is your 12 o'clock expirations, right? Your bullish spread on the right this one's gonna be a little bit out of the money because you can see start gaining value when it gets A top above 285 on the bullish side a little bit out of the money It's gonna be our cheaper spread costing us $10 because we're getting in a 286 one penny above the floor 285 And I can already tell the bearer side. It's gonna be about a $4 difference, right? This one's gonna be $14 difference being we're about $4 in the money on the bearer side So you're gonna 24 bucks 2.4 pennies that you need away from 285 Not bad for natural gas lately with with inventory numbers about to drop just backing things up for a little perspective This is just yesterday. We were down there at almost 276, right? I mean nine eight nine pennies in the span and just to get a feel So those are our Newen's if you wanted just to maybe have that trade right for the number not paying for that extra hour We'll just pull these up. This is gonna be the closest for a moment So this is gonna be and this is great when you can put them side by side same prices Just paying for the hour. Here's your 11 a.m. Here's your noon. Yeah, you were paying $10 right 286 and this one you're gonna be paying $7. Well, just take in you're gonna be paying 7 because you're getting in 285 7 so do you want to pay that extra $3 or 3 tenths of a penny per side? For that extra hour and we'll just square it up. So there's your bullish side looking at about 7 Same thing pull it up the bearer side. You're selling it I'm about 10 so you're looking at $17 versus 24 1.7 pennies versus 2.4 pennies for that hour And again just pushing things, you know, we always pull up both sides because that way it's nice not having to pay We're just talking to Kevin Hicks right about trading the VIX, you know, your mind volatility one slow You're selling it once high. You're not even worried sometimes about what side you need to be on it You know, he was saying double-sided, you know, whether it's diagonal spray or whatever it is Same thing here. Do you want to pay that type of premium? But you can always go bullish or bearish because man if you're directional I mean not a bad trade man to get in at $7 at 285 7 right your loss is a cap that 7 bucks now your risk is it expires where it is. Yeah, and you lose everything, right? You're slightly out of the money. Pretty cool. Now vice versa. You can get in the bearish side Yeah, and your risk is it says where it is right you intend and you get back though Because it's at 284 6 3 and a half pennies if it stays where it is So you really only paints the same amount of premium in the market on both sides This one just has some value where you're sitting not a bad trade man If you really are Directionally biased with the numbers coming and you're looking for some movement in one way or the other and not a bad trade for 17 bucks Totally both sides. Yeah, so let's go take a look at it So when we're doing that the first trades we had lined up that's volatility It doesn't matter which way it goes and the second one of course has to do with You know if you think it's gonna go one way or the other Yeah, if you're just taking one side of that trade, right? You're gonna be directionally biased for sure And if we take a look at this now, this is going to be Slightly actually it's it's right kind of notes. It's still this is a delayed quota Anyway, folks, so you can just see it, but I'm just curious as to what might I check back Yeah, we may have been on a different contract. No, no, we're good. Okay So I've already rolled to June. So if we take a look at this, okay So bottom line is that you come down kind of hot on Monday. That's a two a two eight four one Yep. Yeah, so Which are just over it. Yeah, my take would be that yeah, you know back down a little we'll see we'll see how that shakes out Yeah, and then they What was interesting is that the numbers still have a dry down versus a build and we must be getting close to a Build right well actually, you know There's articles in the paper today that we're so busy in Florida right now folks because what has happened This is gonna be the first month in Pinellas County that they're gonna take in ten million dollars and bed tax That's in one month. Okay, and it's a six percent deal. That's where it comes out I'm sorry in bed tax. We're talking about natural gas tie that all together for that It's been so cold across the country that there's so many people there. Okay, you know The colders across the country the more people come these six weeks to Florida. Okay. Yeah, but you know 877-927-6648 stay right there folks come right back Welcome back folks guys down 45 nazi car 5 S&P's down 7 and look at that number There's your number stockpiles decline 204 billion cubic feet median estimate was 210 so slightly off that number We'll jump back to the charts. See how we're doing pull up that chart a little bit of a drop. I saw yeah So with the contract we were just under 285 right we just dropped about a penny nothing too dramatic Nothing too dramatic, so we'll see but it should be as in didn't decline as much as they thought We have a little bit more supply than they might have thought when you have more supply It's gonna be cheaper prices for the same product, right? So we have more supply now It's only talking about six billion cubic feet the estimate was like 210 pretty close But nonetheless, we're and you're coming into the you know, I don't know when they start the build again I sure it has to do with the cold weather across the country. Yes. We're pretty close I mean, yeah, that's March 14th. Excuse me. Yes, it is I believe right. Yeah, it is the 14th and this is what it was just kind of talking about so This is prior to the news that this story came out, but it is talking about Widening supply shortfall to normal levels has buoyed prices amid late-season cold blasts through much of the winter It's muted the movement muted as demand is poised to slacken with the approach of spring Just kind of what you're talking about and five-year average is usually only a decline of 99 billion cubic feet, right? Yeah, year earlier was only minus a 88 and so that's just kind of talking about what we're talking about in terms of They this is ahead of the news again that futures were rising for a third straight day on speculation that the report will show a record seasonal Drop in stockpiles after a frigid start to the month. So we're close to a record seasonal drop Just like you're saying that usually we're not plowing through this amount of natural gas anymore because maybe Temperatures are softening, but that is not the case. And so we just talked about a couple pennies keeping in mind now Let's just jump back to maybe the noons Actually before we do so here's both sides of this trade There's your bearer side right there if you want to get out you get out of 15 You're putting up seven bucks, right? I'm just on the bearer side Bullish side obviously you're out of the money here, but if we had the volatility trade Let's just say we did the noon volatility, which we like doing sometimes. Yeah, you bearish spread having all the value and Now there's a little bit 282 9 to 2 so you're looking at a $5 bid offer spread Which is something to consider when you're putting up 23, okay? Because that's why you know, it's just there's small numbers, but And let me just yeah, that's I was just thank you So you obviously need a bigger move than this because you're only a penny and a half away from the price point You were putting up about 2.4 pennies So you realistically want at least three pennies where you start getting into the money there and that would be about 282 to the downside So we'll see many that's a noon on that. That's a noon. That's why yeah, which makes it there Let's check back in on natural gas real quick see what we're trading that as we're about 15 minutes after that number and So we saw the initial spike down to a low of 282 68 But pretty pretty muted response so far on that natural gas number sitting just under that level We're within about a penny or where that news was If you had a volatility trade you don't want this at 285 correct that's your max loss right there 285 anywhere away from that point You gain value. Let's go back to natural gas. Let's see where we are at Pretty muted response 283. We'll see stay right there folks. We got a fast market coming up next time I'm a Mr. Basil Chapman Steve Rhodes Dave right be back this afternoon. Thanks. Thanks, man I'll get him folks