 Bitcoin dropped 3% in September and 16% in quarter three. This has been an up and down quarter where we reached a high of $25,000 and a low of $18,000. Inflation didn't slow down at the rate anticipated by the Fed, which caused more rate hikes in July and September. Bitcoin down in September was no surprise because if you look over Bitcoin's history, September is its worst performing month ever. However, we are now entering October and November, which historically is the best performing month for Bitcoin. So where does that leave us? Will Bitcoin get a relief rally and history prove itself again? Or will Bitcoin lose its $18,000 support and drop down to new lows? In today's video, we will look at Bitcoin's historical performance throughout October and November, as well as how it typically performs in the fourth quarter of every year. We will also be taking a look at some of my favorite bottom signal indicators for Bitcoin to see where they are currently compared to previous bear markets. Finally, we will take a look at some charts, analyze them and take a swing at one or two end of your predictions. So let's dive right in to today's video. Remember guys that this content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always DYOR before risking any of your own money. And as a disclaimer, I've been invested in Bitcoin since 2016. So September was pretty much an up and down month. Overall, we ended in the red, but it wasn't as bad as it might have felt. We went up as high as $22,800 and a low of $18,000. But we opened up the month at $20,000 and closed at $19,411. So only a 3% difference, not too bad overall. Currently we're sitting at this same support that we've been sitting at since June. And we're also in what's called the golden pocket. Now, if you take a look at this chart here, you can see in September, it is literally the worst month for Bitcoin. Seven out of nine years that has been tracked in this chart have been red. And if you add 2022, now eight out of 10 years have been red. So it was definitely expected that September was not going to be a very good month for us. Looking at the quarterly results, quarter three is actually overall not a terrible month. We've had five years here where it's been green, four where it's been red. Adding this year, it's also five where it's been red. So it's basically a 50-50 shot in quarter three for Bitcoin's price. However, now we're heading into quarter four. If you notice here on quarter four, we've had one, two, three, four, five, six years where Bitcoin has ended in the green and only three years where it's ended in the red. If you add that up with entering October and November, which historically are the best performing months for Bitcoin, we start to see the possibility here for some sort of maybe a relief rally or some sort of run back to the upside. Since 2013 in October, only two years did it in in the red. And in November, only three years did it end up in the red. And let's not forget that last year in October, we had a 40% run. The year before that, we had a 28% run up and the year before that, a 10% run up. If we take a look here at the average, the last nine years, it's sitting at around 23.6%. So just for fun, let's say that we went up the average that we usually do in October. That would put us around $24,000. Now in November, the average has been way higher, mainly because of 2013 where we had this 454% rise in November. Now, I don't want to say that we're going to go up basically 60% in November, right? That feels a bit unrealistic, even though in Bitcoin and crypto, it is very realistic. As you saw in 2020, we went up 42.9%. But I want to be conservative with my numbers. So what I'm going to do is take this one out that 453.9% and just do the last eight years, which gives us an average of about 10%. So if we were to make the average move up in October and November, that means that we'd be sitting around $26,000 by the end of November going into December. December has pretty much been a 50-50 month working going either direction. You can see that the average here is about 5.7%. If we add that onto the top, that would put us right around $28,000, which is right around exactly where our resistance line is drawn. Now, you guys might be thinking, but how are we going to get there? What will take us here? There's inflation, there's rate hikes, there's still a war going on, and the market overall just looks terrible. Well, what if rate hikes stopped or at least slowed down a bit? That would most definitely help aid not only the overall markets, but Bitcoin and crypto as well. It would most definitely trigger a rally to the upside. Now, of course, the issue with that is the Fed has said over and over again that they're going to continue to raise interest rates until probably 2024. They're expecting to reach their 2% inflation goal by the end of 2023. However, something interesting happened a couple of days ago where the United Nations warned that continued monetary tightening will only hurt developing countries while failing to cool inflation. They basically said that the Fed will trigger a global recession if they continue to raise interest rates. And the solution to this reverse course. So this is definitely something that we will be looking at. We will be watching because if there's any type of decision to kind of back off or slow down these interest rate hikes, that means that the value of the dollar will begin to probably drop again and everything that's traded against the US dollar will go up in prices, including Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Now, looking at the chart, I've highlighted a couple areas of interest here. This green box is basically where that support is. So remember that support is never an exact number. It's a zone. It's an area. This is the zone and area for the support right now for Bitcoin. So that area is between 18,000 up to $20,000. That's its support. That is also exactly where this Fibonacci level is sitting here, which is that 78.6 level. And if we go all the way back to the previous bull market, you can see that is the exact same area where we were rejected. That was the previous all-time high back in 2017 and 18. It was again an area of resistance here when we tested it back in 2020 before we finally broke out and went all the way up to set new all-time highs. And here we are again, except this time we're using it as a support level. So that's why I'm very confident in this support level here. It's already shown us that it's holding here. It's a previous all-time high area. So I'm pretty confident, especially after getting through September, I thought if we lost that area, it would probably be in September. And now that we've gotten past September into quarter four, into its most bullish months, I think that we should be able to hold here and possibly retest this 61.8 Fibonacci area. You can see that this here is also another very important area here where Bitcoin's price has held as a support many, many times over. So it is only natural that it will now probably be a resistance here that's right around that $28,000 to $30,000 area. And remember, if we go back to the average prices in the last nine to eight years in October, November, and December, that puts us at $28,000. Whereas $28,000, it's sitting right at this Fibonacci level. So all the pieces of the puzzle are looking like they fit, which brings me to one of the reasons why that's my possible prediction for the end of year price. It's that we hold here at this support and retest that level up here of $28,000. Now, if for any reason we were to lose this support, which of course can always happen, you can see that the next support here would be down here. That's around $13,000 to $10,000. That's the last time that we had a support here at that level before we broke out. And it was also some previous resistance levels here prior to that breakout above that level. So that would be the next level that I would be targeting if we were, for any reason, break this support that we're currently sitting at. Again, I don't think we're going to break below it, but is it possible? Of course, it's always possible. But as I try to piece this puzzle together, put the story together, make the story make sense, it's showing me that it's going to hold here and possibly retest that next Fibonacci level at that $28,000 area. Now, the last thing I want to take a look at here is these bottom signals. If you guys want to know more about these bottom signals, you can check out this video right here, the top five bottom signals that have never been wrong. So let's see where they're currently at right now. Starting with the R-Hodl ratio, you can see that right now we're in this green area. And in the previous bull runs, you can see that that's kind of where the bottom was for Bitcoin once it got into those green areas. So that is a possible bottom signal there. If we look at the MVRVZ score, you can see kind of the same thing here. The price of Bitcoin is the blue line. You can see that when it's been down in this green zone, that has pretty much called the bottom for Bitcoin's price. And that's exactly where we currently are right now. Looking at the Poel multiple, same thing here. And the green is the bottom signal usually throughout a bear market, and that's currently where we're sitting at. Looking at the Bitcoin rainbow price chart indicator here. You can see that we're in the bottom of the blue area. And if we look here at the blue area, that is a fire sale. So this indicator here is telling you to buy it up as much as you can, as fast as you can. If we look at the pie cycle bottom here, you can see that this signal has also gone off. If we go back, you can see that this signal, the pie cycle bottom, has been called multiple times at the bottom of the bear market. The hash ribbon is another indicator that I like to look at here for a signal. Now this one, you can see that it has not yet signaled a buy like it has previously here. It signaled it here in August of last year before we hit new all-time highs and it signaled it back in December of 2020 before it hit new all-time highs. And you can see on and on and on any time it's signal a buy here, price has almost always gone up. So right now we're in the green. You can see here we had the green before eventually we got the buy signal. You can see the same thing happened here. So it might potentially be setting up to give us that buy signal. When it does, I will definitely be letting you guys know. Now just because these indicators are giving bottom signals does not mean that we're going into a bull run or that we're gonna just start running up to new all-time highs. It takes time. This is a long-term thing. The way the market currently is, it is not showing me that we're going into a bull market yet. So when will be the next bull market? My best prediction is in 2024. The main two things happening in 2024 is we have the next Bitcoin halving. And that's when the Fed has said that they will stop raising interest rates and that we will be at the 2% inflation rate, which is their goal. And they'll start cutting interest rates at that point. That of course would help the markets start soaring again. Mix that in with the Bitcoin halving. It's basically a ticking time bomb. And that's when I think in 2024, 2025, we will see new all-time highs. Now is the time to fill up your bags, accumulate, accumulate, accumulate, and then just sit back and wait for that next bull run. Many people believe that you become rich during the bull run, but you actually become rich during the bear market. If you wanna find out my exact strategy on how I'm setting up my portfolio, exactly what I am buying, just watch this next video right here. If you haven't done so yet, make sure to smash that subscribe button, hit the like and drop a comment letting me know what your prediction is for the end of the year on Bitcoin's price. I will choose one winner and send you $100 in Bitcoin. I'll see you guys on the next one. As always, peace and love.