 Hey everybody, what's going on? I am Greg Sosman, joined today by Jim Sonis of Fandall. You're gonna talk some MLB win totals. What's going on, Jim? Yeah, Greg, we don't have a lot of time left to talk about pre-season MLB betting, so I gotta take advantage while we're here. We'll get back to NASCAR eventually, but it's a fun time of year. Byron Buxton broke his tooth, so we're in full major league baseball, regular season swing. I'm just embracing myself for the inevitable disappointment at the regular season. I actually thought your tweet made a lot of sense because he broke his tooth. He can't break anything else. Good news for Byron Buxton. Also good news for the Houston Astros, a team that we've actually talked about in the past quite a bit here this spring, and they are a team that you like this season. Maybe you just like going against that division, but that works. The Houston Astros, you're taking there over here in 2021. Yeah, I think that this number is pretty forgiving because I wanna find teams where I don't need a lot of things to break their way to get towards the over or the under. I think with the Astros, you do need something. Like if Jose Altube, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman all struggle again in 2021, it might be tough to get to 87 and a half, but I don't think you need all three of those guys to fully bounce back to get to this number. So I do think that there is value in 87 and a half, and it's not just those guys needing to bounce back. Here we also, it's easy to forget that Jordan Alvarez missed almost all of last year, now comes back, rejoins the middle part of that order. Kyle Pucker was really good last year and seemed like based on the advanced numbers for Tucker, it does seem like that is something that you can carry over into 2021. So if they can get even like one or two of Altube, Correa, and Bregman to bounce back, that's gonna position them pretty well to be a competitive lineup once again. I also don't mind this rotation. I think the Jacob O'Raisy signing definitely does help things as well. So we talked about them before, Greg, we were talking about the division. And at that time, they were not the division favorites, they were behind the A's. That has since flipped. They are now the divisional favorites in the AL West. So I think that if you are still trying to buy into the Astros, get in on them before we see them return to their previous form, I believe this is the best route for doing so, betting them over 87 and a half. The A's are the one team in the West. You really have to worry about here from a scheduling perspective. And I think that that's a positive thing for Houston having other non-competitive teams in this division. I think that we'll see a bounce back here for their offense and if that does happen, it could allow for the rotation to not be top notch and still get over this number. So I think that the Astros are a team I want to buy in general. And as of right now, this is the best route for doing so, betting the over at 87 and a half. Less margin for error this season than in previous years here for the Astros. Like you said, Jose Altuve struggles, Carlos Correa and Alex Bragman, they're not going to be able to come back from that, but they're pitching. It is kind of underrated. And the Jaco-Darisi signing is good for them. I believe the Astros in position here in a bad division, or it's supposed to be a bad division to go over that 87 and a half wins. Moving on, let's get over to the NL West. That brings us to the San Francisco Giants. Another team that you like the over number for. Their win total here is 75. And this is different because this is a good division, right? You have the Dodgers, you have the Padres, a Diamondbacks team that could be competitive here. The Rockies not so much, but the Giants at 75 is an interesting number. You like the over, how come? I think that there's a sneaky amount of upside in this team. You look at some of the additions they've made this all season and they're not bad. Like Tommy Lestella doesn't get a lot of respect as being a good hitter, but I think he is. Like he, I think Joe Madden once said that Tommy Lestella can wake up on first base. And I think that's still true based on what he has done the past couple years. That's a good signing for them. Alex Dickerson should be pretty healthy for this year. That's a good thing. This lineup I think will actually kind of score some runs which is enticing. Their rotation is also not too terrible either. They've got a lot of guys with upside there if they decide to snap back. And Kevin Gausman, based on what he did last year, does need to do too much. If you just get what he did in 2020, you'll be in a pretty good position at the top end of that rotation. I do this giant team as being one that doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. They're not necessarily elite in any area, but they're also not terrible anywhere either. So you look at this division. Yeah, the Padres and Dodgers are tough. They're actually first and second in my power rankings heading into this year. So that's a tough thing for the Giants for sure. And it makes it tough to want to bet the over on their wind total. But I think they are a better team than the Diamondbacks, better than the Rockies as well. And they're ranked 18th in my power rankings. So when I add that all up, yes, the division is a concern, but I think that they're a good team. Even if you get the baseline production to throw them some of their hitters and their pitchers, and there's the possibility for them to outproduce the projections in some of those positions. So to me, I think this Giants team is actually one that has a decent amount of upside. And we're not seeing that in this number right now at 75. So I'll take the over here, despite the tough division, I hope they can beat up on the Rockies in Arizona. You basically said the San Francisco Giants are average. Average brings us to 81 and 81. That's more than 75 wins when you get to 80. And I think that's what kind of Jim is referring to. This is not a team that's going to be bad. It's not a team that's going to be great either, but they can get over that 75 number. That's all you're looking for here at the Fanville Sportsbook right now to go over 500. The Giants can do that. Obviously they need the pitching to go their way. Kevin Galsman to give you what he gave you last year, but they can get to that number. And so Jim predicts here. One more total to go over and that brings us to the Anno Central with the St. Louis Cardinals, a team that a lot of people like, of course, after that no one Aronato trade, no real big losses here. So everyone jumping in on the Cardinals. You're not, Jim. Yeah, I think that there are just too many concerns here. We were talking about the Giants where there aren't any like true downsides with them, no true holes. I think there are a lot of holes with St. Louis. This offense is not one I'm super high on. Aronato is great obviously, but how well will his bat translate outside of Colorado? Last year was not a very good year for him. If you look at his advanced numbers on like the bat at ball data, he hasn't been a big power guy once you account for the park that he plays in. So you put him in a park that's a lot worse than Colorado. He's still gonna have a high batting average, still gonna get his way on base because he's not gonna strike out. But how much pop is he providing to this lineup? I think that's a legit question mark. And the depth outside of Galsman and Aronato within this order, isn't all that good. So the defense will be great. Aronato definitely does help there. And I like that a lot, but they're gonna need a lot of defense because their pitching, I think, is where the biggest concerns lie with this team. Jack Flaherty, very good. I'm definitely on board with him. It's after that where things get pretty dicey, not just in the rotation, but also in the bullpen. We were talking before about the Astros. We need maybe one or two guys to bounce back for them to hit the over on their number. I think for the Cardinals, you need a lot of the guys in their pitching staff to hit the high end of the range of outcomes in order for them to hit it over 86. And I don't want to bank on that because this is a decently high number. I know that the NL Central does have a lot of teams that are not gonna be super competitive. That could help bolster their win totals. We are kind of going counter to what we have with the Giants here, but I think that this number does account for that. And I still think St. Louis is a closer to 500 team than they are 86 win team. So to me, I think we just got a little bit overzealous with this team as a result, the Aronato trade. Again, very good trade. Aronato is great. You definitely want guys like that on your team. But I think that overinflated the markets around them. So to me, I think it's a good situation where you do want to bet against the Cardinals, whether that means betting on a different team in the NL Central, like maybe the Brewers, or taking the under here. They are a team that I'd like to be under on for this year. And I think the most logical route is taking the under on 86 wins at Fandral Sportsbook. It's just a number that's a little inflated because then no one Aronato trade. The margin for error as you just spoke about with the Giants is, I mean, they're fine, right? But this number for St. Louis is just probably too high here at 86. They have a lot of, they have a lot more holes I think people realize they're pitching. There's a lot of question marks there in the bullfin too. There's so many question marks surrounding the St. Louis Cardinals team. No, an Aronato I don't think is one of them. But that doesn't account for 86 wins probably going under the number of the Fandals Sportsbook makes a lot of sense. Before we wrap up, Jim, I do want to mention one team over who I do like is the other team that plays in Missouri. That's Kansas City. There's numbers I think at 72 right now the Fandals Sportsbook, I can buy that. I thought about it, Greg. I'm not going to lie. I looked into it a little bit. I thought that they were pretty interesting. The reason that I couldn't quite do it is because the White Sox and the Twins are both teams I'm pretty high on. I think Detroit is actually a little bit better than Perception as well. So couldn't quite get there as a result but they've sneakily got some pretty fun hitters that they've added this year. So I did consider it. I will say that for sure. Listen, I know the White Sox are good. The Twins are obviously good. Both better than the Royals. Tigers, I don't agree with you. I think they're awful. But this lineup, this Royals lineup is pretty good. I mean, they're not pretty good, but they're good. And the Royals pitching, a lot of question marks there. We'll see what happens. Jim Sannis, I appreciate the time, man. Good luck this season. Thank you, Greg. I appreciate it. Same to you and hopefully no more broken teeth or broken anything for Byron Buxton going forward. That would be ideal. I am excited for when Byron goes on a streak and then we text, then you're just so happy and then he slumps, then you're not so happy. It's basically the ebbs and flows that they baseball season. So I'm excited for that. Tomorrow on The Hurry Up, we'll be joined by Tom Vecchio to go over some NBA because basketball is back. For Jim Sannis, I'm Greg Sossman. Thanks so much for watching. We'll see you back here tomorrow for another edition of the FanDuel Hurry Up.