 In consumer behavior, today we are going to study the behavior of a consumer particularly related to the situation of uncertainty and when uncertainty situation we give the elementary treatment. What is the elementary treatment? It is particularly related to that when we say that the uncertainty condition is there but the object that what we are going to define it has particular prospects and for that prospect we define in their manner that that uncertainty condition has certain measurable property and if we say in this way we can say that any objective which the consumer is deciding in and all its outcomes can also be measurable and that objective can also be measurable, account far, so whenever there is an elementary treatment it will be particularly related to those conditions when we are assigning a particular number or value to all of them. So keeping in view this, now let us see what is the objective of our consumer deal and what are the prospects associated with achieving that objective? Now what are the choices of the consumer and how do they keep the preferences under those choices? Now if we look at the previous consumption, then the choices and preferences of the consumer are synonymous. But in this situation if we look at it, then we can say that the choice of the consumer and in that choice he has kept three aspects of a particular state, mainly if we take an example of that weather, he looks at it and he thinks that tomorrow the temperature will increase, what situation will happen with the increase, how much probability there will be in that, so the choice of the consumer is related to that and might be if we look at any other example, then whatever choice he has to take, then with that he has to attach his preferences. Now if we look at this situation in the next, then with this our theorem is that one new man Morgan Strumb's theorem is attached and it is related to probabilities. Now in this situation if we go under an example, then if we talk about a single good, and here only one objective or single good, rather we will take the price or the decision taken by the decision taker, we will take the single, there can be the many others but here he is the consumer or our decision taker, we are not taking the multiple, we will talk about the single decision taker. So that thing, our single decision taker, if we want to make a decision about any object which is good, and that good is made in the units of account, and we pose in this situation that that is income. Now this income object, its why, it can be various forms with us, I mean its a prospect that it knows that if the year is coming, and there is a probability that it assesses its previous information that I have worked hard for the whole year, I have worked hard, so there is a possibility that it will say that I will get a rise in income, S1 there is possibility that it will be 25%, S2 it can be that I get an average, and S3 it can be 10%, and S3 it can be a condition that keeping in view the other information that I have done a lot of work, I have done extra work, but because right now the company's situation is not getting so much better, then it can be that I don't get income, and my state is as such, then we can see it in that form, so likewise this income is related to various states, and then it denotes its income, now if we look at it, in this we say that the individual who has the probability attached, which we are noting here with phi, and if we look at that phi, then when we have one particular state, then that particular state S4, we can see it in that form, and now if we say that this probability multiplied by that is a state that we see, so likewise we can say that overall one state is multiplied by its respective probability and like other, and then we can have all the states multiplied by their respective probability, now if probability or that state that it has attached to its objective, if we look at it, the cross-ponding vector that it makes, and on its base it says that in its answer one prospect P should come in front of us, or if we say that it should be a total outcome of all the vectors, now because of this, the income vector we have under its probability vector, P prospect is equal to the probability pi into this y, and it is equal to like this, now if we change the probability vector of y here, or if we change the income vector of y, then our outcome P can be changed as a result of these two products, so because of this, we are utilizing different probabilities, so then another term which defines this P, that is also called the probability distribution of the income, now this choice objective of our theory is basically our prospect, which we have in the form of P, so keeping in view this theory, what we understand clearly is that every action and the probability related to it, if we buy a product, it will be a prospect, it will be a consequence, so every action and the probability related to it will have a unique consequence in front of us, and it can be entirely different with the other, so for each decision there can be the expectation of the different prospects, now looking at this situation, if we look at it, then we can assess that a consumer or any economic agent, whenever he decides different prospects in his own uncertainty conditions, so he should be in that expectation that his different consequences will come, and as a result of those consequences, all the environmental conditions or the conditions of income should be ready to be expected, now looking at the theory of expectations, if we want to take an example, that can be that might be there is a producer as well, and he sees that if there is a situation that tomorrow the weather conditions change, so what should he say, now he sees that yes, there will be change in the condition of the weather, so the product I have, I should get its weather-related insurance, but on the other hand, if he gets the insurance, then this is his one state, and he will attach with that state his probability, and his consequence will be that in the form of insurance, he will have to pay so much premium and cost, and as a result of that, if there will be any drastic change, then how much he can benefit, and the opposite of his example, if he sees another state in which he says that yes, there can be change in the weather, but it won't be so drastic, so I don't have to get insurance, so these can be the two opposite forms, and in these two forms, the prospects can calculate it, relative to those states, and by multiplying those two states with the attached respective probabilities, then he can calculate the prospects of these two, and if we look at this calculation, then the decisions related to insurance or premium related to it depend on it. Thank you.