 The most frustrating part for me this week was, no matter what my research told me, right, going into the next day, the market did the complete opposite. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another week in a vision of TheAxersOfTrader.com. We can update, show hope everybody is doing well. Hopefully everybody came out of this week in one piece, both monetary and mentally. I think the mental part is the longer term, most important part, because again, money comes, money goes, when you're a trader, comes when you're an investor. But the mental aspect, the mental equity that we burn, it's very, very tough to get back. And I think this was one of the most mentally challenging weeks I can remember in quite a while. I mean, I've been doing this for 21 years, and I have to say my patients got put to the test. My ability to stay out of trouble got put to the test. My ability to read the market correctly really got put to the test. And when you have all these different tests lined up in front of you, it's very, very easy to come out of pocket and come out of your comfort zone and start doing things and having one of these out of body experiences that really destroys your account. And so many traders, unfortunately, go through this every single week, every single month. And it's a normal environment. And when you look at what happened this week, it wasn't tough because all the market is so choppy. We'll get to that in a second. It was so tough because I put in so much work behind the scenes. I look at so many charts and go through so many groups and try to really pinpoint where the advantage is based on and correlated with my process that I pride myself of putting in this work and understand the edge of what's happening in the market. That's kind of what I do. That's kind of where I am and I'm pretty good at it. And this week was one of those weeks that I put in so much work and the market decided to do literally the complete opposite of what my research started telling me. And that's when things get really, really tough. When you put in the work and you identify a distribution channel for all you guys who are new to the channel or new to the broadcast, a distribution is the ugliest word you could possibly use in a trader's vocabulary. That's when a market is coming in either from highs or lows and the buyers are not able to take it anymore higher because the market's tired and there's not enough fear to take the market lower. So there's a standstill, right? There's a pillow fight and there's literally bulls and bears sitting there clubbing each other over the head with feathers. Nobody's doing any damage and the most aggressive part of that is usually a trader cannot identify. Usually if somebody's trading the first two, three years it doesn't make sense to them. So they'll never see that happening and they turn their accounts into next week. The problem was this is not a distribution market, right? This is not a market that the bulls or bears are trying to take control coming out of a upper level or bottom level. We're trying to take control of the middle and you can see here this whole middle area that we've been talking about non-stop for the last two months or so had very, very specific levels. So when you believe in levels and you believe in technical analysis and you trade off those levels both long and short what you're trying to accomplish every single day based on your research is try to find that edge the next day. The problem this week was no matter what my research told me no matter what technically the market told me was supposed to happen the next day. Again, supposed to and actually happening two different things, we understand that. We appreciate that, right? We don't come quick to judgment anticipating a move but we have a pretty good idea of what's gonna happen next based on the previous day's close. And the most frustrating part for me this week was no matter what my research told me, right? Going into the next day the market did the complete opposite. So again, we're not gonna even go through the last few weeks. I think he's been really good value when watching this broadcast up to like last week, the previous week I was all sell bias. We identified these levels. They broke down. Fantastic action on the short side. The following week, we had this dead cat bounce, right guys? We had this really, really good dead cat bounce off this 150 day support on the Qs. They got to the 50 day moving average and here is where things got really, really intense. And I know a lot of traders went through the exact same thing that I went through because you just couldn't figure out why things aren't happening based on technical analysis. And that's one of those one out of a hundred things that you just can't understand. You just gotta realize, just go with it. So we knew how important this 320 level was, right? It got rejected several times here on the 50 day moving average. We knew if the bulls had any juice left and this was more than a dead cat bounce they had to reclaim the 50 day moving average and start building. A lot of new traders always ask me, hey Dan, what does the word build mean? It simply is a term of using volume and price action are occurring above the level. So for example, if the 50 day moving average on the Qs were 320, the word build means price action has to consistently stay above that 320 level to confirm its previous levels, confirm its previous supply. So we did that, right? We took control over this area on Tuesday. Everybody see that? The next day, right? This was the first close. So we knew that level need to be confirmed. So that was the first close over the 50 day moving average. Super bullish, right guys? Absolutely super bullish. So my game plan for that next day was, well again, let's look at the upside. We reclaimed the 50 day moving average. This was more than a dead cat bounce. Now we're looking for that 320 level. Everything's to go for the next day. So what happens the next day? The market gaps down, right? And the one thing that I've always maintained throughout the years, when a market reclaims or does technical damage the previous day, okay? In this case, we reclaimed the 50 day moving average. Any gap down was deemed to be very, very bullish just because the value is always gonna be to the upside because you have to give the buyers the benefit of doubt. And this was also the Fed day, if you guys remember. And we had two things going for us. We had the benefit of the doubt of the bulls. We had the Fed and we knew the Fed wasn't gonna do anything dramatic as far as interest rates goes. So the market did absolutely nothing. If you guys remember Wednesday, like until like two o'clock, until the Fed started speaking and we started getting really bullish statement by the Fed, right? They came out, Powell said, there's going to be no interest rate hikes until at least 2022. You had the IRS giving everybody basically another month, at least a month, who knows what's gonna happen in May, maybe they'd give you another month, but everything was set up, right? And the bulls started reclaiming the 50 day moving average. And not only did we have bullish comments coming out of the Fed saying, hey, look, we're gonna do our job, right? The government is going to be here. We're gonna print money, whatever it is, QE forever, whatever terminology we're gonna use, we're gonna do whatever it takes for every citizen in the United States because of the pandemic. Some of you guys lost your jobs. Some of you guys lost your income. Some of you guys lost your homes. We're gonna do everything possible at least from our end with the stimulus checks, right? With everything, with the low interest rates to get you back on your feet. And what did the market do? It reclaimed, right? It reclaimed the 50 day moving average again on the close. And not only that, but it priced approved the previous day. So Thursday night, if you guys watch the video, excuse me, Wednesday night into Thursday, if you guys that watch the video, it was one of the most bullish setups I could remember in an incredibly long time. Absolutely, you had two days in a row of building above the 50 day moving average. You had the Fed behind you and all we needed to do now, as you can see here, how many times we talked about that's 324 level, right? Rejected, 324, 324, 324, 324. All we needed to do, and there was a high probability, my mind, I was 100% biased going into Thursday session. All we needed to do was confirm. And I sat there and we waited and we sat there and we waited and we sat there and we waited. And lo and behold, the market sells off into the close, not only losing the 50 day moving average, but lost the five day moving average as well. And for me, this was incredibly demoralizing, right? Absolutely demoralizing because again, when you put in so much time, when you put in so much effort, when you put in so much research, dedicating to getting an advantage, okay? Over the market, at least over the participants in the market, based on the stocks you're trading, based on the process, it's completely demoralizing when you see the first three days of the week, maybe four, first four days of the week, do absolutely nothing to put you in a situation that you're going to succeed. And in those three, four days, you took one trade, you made some money, took another trade, lost a little bit of money, made some money in another trade, but you're not really doing anything. You're not really productively sitting there taking control of the market. And the most amazing part is I don't remember, and I've been doing this for 21 years, I don't remember in the last at least 10, 15 years that I had a week that I was able to put in the work and get absolutely nothing accomplished for the first part of the week, because the market went completely the opposite direction of what I thought was going to happen. And again, based on, and again, it's not just based on opinion, this is based on technical data that I've been literally compiling every single day for the last 21 years. And the good part is, if there's a silver lining to everything, we'll get to Friday in a second. But if there's a silver lining to anything, okay, I didn't sit there and try to trade, stocks I would never trade and have C-level setups and D-level setups and G-level setups. I kind of let it play out, frustrated as hell, okay? I think a lot of you guys have been trading with me in the webinar for about 11 years. I can guarantee you've never seen me that mentally frustrated because I couldn't get a grip of what the hell was going on. But I sat there, right? I sat there and people use the word patience, right? Patience, you gotta be patient, you gotta stay patient. And I've always said this and I've always maintained the point. I think a lot of people use the word patient very, very loosely, right? I personally believe that most traders trading under five to seven years, I really believe most traders, it's not a fault of your own. I believe most traders don't know what they're exactly patient for. Like I don't think they can, and again, I was one of them so I speak for myself as well. I don't believe for a second, if you're trading two, three, four, five years, you've seen enough cards being dished out that you know the difference between a distribution market, an uptrending market that has aggressive volatility to the downside, aggressive bear market that has aggressive volatility to the upside. I think this is all kind of a general thesis for you. This is kind of a general stage for you to kind of perform on. But the problem is when you've been trading for a long time, you really do appreciate what the word patients is for. And the silver lining of this week's session was, I didn't give in, right? I didn't give in and I spoke to a lot of people and although we were incredible, hell of a frustrating week, right? We didn't give in, right? We didn't start churning 30 different stocks a day. I was sitting there trading one, two, maybe three stocks a day, trying to piece a day together, mentally frustrating yes, but not mentally defeated. And once came Friday, and this is where you really feel good, right? You really, really feel good and you have to smile after what happened on Friday because Friday was no different than any other day I've been trading for the last, let's just say even the last nine years that I developed these pivots or at least developed the process around these pivots. And there was nothing different about Friday's session compared to the first nine years that I've been trading pivots compared for the first four days of the week that I got incredibly frustrated and they just couldn't get going. The only difference between Friday's session and the first four days of the week, we finally buy the graces of God again and that's the only way I say it. And I never use God as thank you for what I have, right? Thank you for what I need. I'm just blessed. I believe in every single day that God puts us in a situation that we're put to test adversity, love, hate. What are we gonna do with our time on this earth, right? So it's just a bigger picture than that than just thank you God for giving an opportunity to trade the mark in my way. I look at it more of a big picture but to this point, and this is probably the only time I'll ever use that point by the graces of the market gods, the difference between Friday's session compared to Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday that I couldn't just figure out why the market wasn't following through by the graces of God. We finally got a follow through. We got a violent follow through and I couldn't be happier and you guys heard me in the webinar. It felt like there was an elephant that was removed from my shoulders for the week. All of a sudden things got brighter. There was a smile on my face only because we went through that first four days with absolutely no rhyme or reason why things were happening. And then finally we got a follow through based on Thursday's session. If you guys remember Thursday we sold off very, very aggressively into the close on the NASDAQ 100. I think the NASDAQ was down like 400 points or so. And I was 1,000% sell by us. As a matter of fact, if you look at the Twitter feed, I was literally like, there was nothing else I can say. I was 1,000% sell biased coming into Friday's session. We were looking at all technology, like literally all technology. If they would have started confirming the previous day's lows and the previous day's channel, I thought we had the ability to really have a big premium day and God knock on wood. That's exactly how it played out. And everything that mentally a lot of us went through Monday through Thursday. And I'm just, I'm not just talking about people in the webinar. I'm just talking about just traders in general who are trading these stocks and looking for follow through that never got anything. We finally got vindicated. And I think most important, like I said in the start of the broadcast, I think it was very, very important mentally just to kind of end the week that we were vindicated. We were right. Our research was right on point. We didn't give in. We were patient. And then finally Friday, we came in sell biased. The best thing actually that could have possibly happened to us on Friday was if you guys remember, everything gapped up, right? Tesla gapped up like $7, $8. Roku gapped up. The Q's gapped up. Everything gapped up, right? Like everything, everything gapped up. And now we just needed for them to wait, like just to wait for these channels to confirm. And once they did, it was a wonderful much needed mental swan dive off these ranges. I caught Tesla. I mean, again, this is the one. Tesla's always the one. Whether that ranges to the upside or to the downside, Tesla's the one and knock on wood. And a lot of people got, you know, sent me that email or text messages over the weekend or throughout the day. And they're like, wow, we really, really needed this. And 100%, a few trading technology. This was finally one of those relief situations that finally, right? Our research, our homework and our patients really paid off. And it was a beautiful thing going into the weekend. So let's talk about Friday's pivots. So Tesla, right? Tesla, you know, it looks so great on Wednesday and Wednesday, going into Thursday session, I really thought we were gonna be buying it above the 720 level, which obviously then never happened. So again, as we say all the time, the greatest thing about pivots, you don't need to be a bull. You don't need to be a bear. Just be open-minded, right? And just trade both sides of the market. So Tesla, here was the, you know, phenomenal pivot. I caught this thing. I was very happy with it. It was a sigh of relief. And I just felt so mentally good. It was so important to have that mental fix, especially towards the end of the week. So Tesla has held 650 four times, including Wednesday's pre-market low, if it builds below. And I said there's a ton of room there. Here was Tesla, just a fantastic trade. I was very, very happy. So here's the 650, 650, it broke 650, just destruction here right at the open, just destroyed, just absolutely destroyed when all the way down to 625. I was incredibly happy with the trade. And I know a lot of you guys caught it as well. So a great job there. QQQ point of reference, 1150, 11, very important area for the bearers to take control for possible distribution in a sell-off later. And again, that's exactly what happened with the Qs as well, right? Took out this 1150, right? Took out the 1150 and traded right into support into the 309s, which again now becomes a very, very important area for this week for the bulls because if they start losing this 309, 308 level on the close, you could see where the next measure potential could be. Previous week's close, a really good move on the Qs as well. Zoom never got down to the 709 level. Netflix, I traded Netflix, I scratched on the trade. The only reason I scratched, I got a move down and it went down like $1.50, $1.50 a sell. So I covered some. Again, I just wanted to kind of, I didn't think the market was gonna get destroyed because I knew the Qs were so close to support. So I took some off and then I let it rally against me. So I pretty much scratched in the trade on Netflix. TTD never got to $6.92. Here was Roku. Again, another just got hit at the open here. 341 held twice daily. If it builds below can flush. Beautiful trade there. I mean, beautiful, beautiful trade. Congratulations to all you guys who did take it. Here's a 341 level here. 341 held once, 341 held twice. 341 held three times actually. And once it took out 341 and went all the way down to 334 again, that's obviously the line in the sand going forward. So nice move on Roku. Jumia, right? Here's another one. Jumia again, you can see those literally, we will all sell buys. There was actually one pivot to the upside that worked out as well, but we will all sell buys at the open. Jumia held support 42 if it builds below can flush. There were buyers coming in the previous day for the April 36 and 40 puts. So here was Jumia, nice move. Definitely nice move on Jumia. Here was the, excuse me, JMAI. Here was the move on Jumia. It took out the 42 and traded right into support of 40. Again, this 40 becomes obviously a big area for the next move down. Peloton never got down to the 101.50 area. Not a big move at all on Amazon. 30, 24 if it builds below can flush. Only went down like $7, $8 before reverse course and rallied. Square got hit as well. Again, these weren't supposed to be for the exception of Tesla that we knew had a lot of room down. Everything else was just literally cash flow moves. But again, it was just so nice that we finally got a follow through. So here is 222 on Square and went right down into support, kind of mirroring the QQQs. I went down to the 19 area as well. And I said, look, make just sure, just take everything down. Mentally you need it, right? Monetary you need it, but mentally it's so important to kind of get out of dodge with a good feeling and a good vibe that you got, you kind of got rewarded for your effort. And again, listen, we waited all week for the Monster Wash. We finally got it. Tesla was obviously my big move there. So you have Tesla getting killed, Jumiya. Mogul was literally the only upside pivot on the day. There's a lot of dead cat bounces. Again, I'm not a believer in these dead cat bounces just because you just don't have a safety net, right? I believe in macro levels. I believe in micro levels that is those sneaky pivots that we talk about. So Mogul, for all you small cap lovers, 1150, 1160, that was the sneaky area needs to reclaim. There's also a micro level of 1190, 12 that needs to confirm. Here was Mogul, right? So it took out this whole sneaky pivot here, this 1150, 1160 area, got above the 1190 area and went all the way up to 1230. If you did catch it, great job. I did not trade this Mogul just because, again, I was good with Tesla. I was good. Mentally, it was good. Trade-wise, it was good. And moral of this portant is I got back some of the mental equity that I desperately needed to get back after I burnt it for the first four days. So it actually turned out to be pretty good. But boy, oh boy, frustrating is not even the word to describe what a lot of us went through this week just because of the lack of follow through. Going into this week, you know, look, we're kind of in the middle of the range here. Obviously there's no buy signal here for the NASDAQ 100. Again, and I don't like talking about the Dow or the S&P because, again, when you look at the scoreboard towards the end of the week, you saw the Dow and the S&P down, you know, eight-tenths of a percent. It doesn't really show you how strong the Dow was and has been, especially Boeing, has been incredibly strong. The banks have been incredibly strong. You know, they got sold off a little bit because of the interest rate PR. But more important, the Dow has been very, very strong. I trade the NASDAQ names. I trade the NASDAQ 100 names. This is kind of where my quote-unquote market is. So when you look at it from the macro point of view, for this thing to get bullish, right, the word bullish, macro-wise, we have to get above 324. That is the big, big picture, okay? But for little baby steps, if you believe the market quote-unquote was the low on Friday, right? So you have to reclaim 318 on the close, okay? Not only did we lose the 50, we lost the five, and then we lose the 10-day moving average, all in the process of the last couple of days of the week. So the bulls are gonna have to do a lot of effort. Here's the big key where things can really swan dive going into next week. Again, nobody's saying it will, nobody's saying it won't. We just want to, again, give people levels that understand that if this happens, well, that will probably follow. So any close on the queues below, let's not split hairs, any close on the queues below 309, then you can see how much room we have, all the way measured potential, all the way back down to the March 5th, 297 lows. If that happens, the last thing you want to do is be an inventory. And again, if you guys remember the last three weeks of the sell signal, those incredible value to the short side that kind of resembled Friday's action. You know, are there names that I do like on the long side going into this week? You know, yeah, there's some couple of names. Let me give you guys a couple of names that I am watching going into this week, just in case we rally, right? Just in case we rally. I kind of like Chewy, hey, do I love Chewy? No, I don't love Chewy, but at least it reclaimed the five-day moving average, right, after a big, big aggressive sell-off. And this is the whole point. It has to reclaim this channel here, right? You see this channel here? It has to reclaim it. If it can reclaim the top of this channel and the market doesn't die this week, then maybe you have a dead cat bounce coming to 89. This laser looks pretty good as well, right? Laser first close over the 50-day moving average. If laser can start reclaiming Friday's highs, who knows, maybe it could start another session to the upside. On the downside, you know, watch PDD this week. This has been, it's been terrible. I mean, really, really terrible. Had, got destroyed with the rest of the NASDAQ names, you know, just couldn't rally. If it starts taking the bottom of this channel here, you know, this thing could get hit, you know, very, very aggressively. And also, TDOC, I know, Kathy Wood, I love her. Nobody loves Kathy Wood, I do, right? I know she's a buyer every single day. But, you know, price action is price action. And God, again, got destroyed. And if you look at the last three days, you have the low. All you have to do is look at this chart and you know where the pivot is. You have the low of the last three days here, folks. If it starts taking out these last three days of nonstop support in the same level, then this thing has potential to get back down to the 174 lows and really start imploding, assuming the market gets weaker. So that's it, folks. We made it through the week. Congratulations. Go have a drink. Go have a nice meal. May God continue to bless you and hopefully we will see each other all Monday. Guys, God bless and have a great weekend.