 Hello, everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug, streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. And I need to go through the disclosures. General disclosure, all Bookmap limited materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice or recommendations. Risk disclosure, trading futures, equities, and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. As a reminder, the focus of my presentation and the Options with Doug chatroom and Discord is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading. And the first is planning and I use positional analysis and I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to help develop a thesis regarding expected volatility and trading range for the day, as well as a directional bias. And I think position analysis is a new way of looking at the market. Many traders use technical analysis or fundamental analysis. And I think positional analysis, again, is a new way of looking at the market that provides a significant edge. And the second step in my process is execution. And I look at real-time order flow and book map and real-time market maker hedging flow and Spot Yamahiro to confirm my thesis and for setups. And finally, on topic, serious on topic questions and comments are welcome. And please post your questions and comments in the Options with Doug chatroom and Discord and also the chat in YouTube. Okay. And what I want to cover today is, first of all, just go over quickly a couple of news items, economic data, one that happened this morning and then also talk about data coming up for the rest of the week and then we'll go through the position analysis and then finally talk about setups. Okay. So first of all news, this morning Jerome Powell spoke and he was in Sweden, I believe, and these are some comments on financial juice about his speech. Apparently it was a prepared speech and there was no discussion of the state of the U.S. economy or a prognosis for monetary policy. So kind of a nothing burger, although the market did seem to interpret as bullish or maybe was bullish anyway. So that's the anticipated Jerome Powell speech this morning. Again, nothing of substance there. And then for the rest of the week, on Thursday the 12th, there is a big economic release. That's the CPI data at 8.30 a.m. eastern time and that has been a big market mover the past few months. So we'll keep a close eye on that. And then finally on Friday the 13th, consumer sentiment, University of Michigan consumer sentiment comes out at 10 a.m. So again, the big event for the week is the CPI data coming out on Thursday morning. All right, let's go through our position analysis and this is the S&P 500 futures ES and the levels that are in play are shown on this chart. And I also have an SPX chart and we'll take a look at that as well. It's very important to keep track of the SPX levels when you're trading ES in my opinion. I think those levels are significant. So what I'm looking at here, I have two columns of notes in book map and the first here, this is spot gamma cloud notes and these are provided automatically in cloud notes and they are updated daily and they're showing primarily SPX levels and also combo levels that would be a combination of SPX and SPI and this 3900 level again corresponds to SPX converted to an equivalent ES number and right now spot gamma is using a 25 point difference. So they're adding 25 points to SPX to come up with an equivalent ES level and the last time I checked that difference was a little bit less than 25 points and then I have another column of cloud notes. These are my notes and the things that I'm showing here are first SPI levels that are key gamma levels and this is for example the SPI 390 key gamma strike and you can see that it acted as resistance here in the morning and then the other level that has been in play today is the SPI 389 volatility trigger and you can see that was also in play this morning and then there's been also a cluster of volume around that level and that's also the SPX 3900 level. So that's been a significant level today. All right, let's take a look at SPX now and what this is is these are notes from spot gamma as well. It's not as convenient as the cloud notes and book map. You have to update them manually but it seems to work pretty well and this is a 20 day one hour chart and I have talked about this narrow range that SPX was trading in for about three weeks and then finally seems to have broken out of that level. The top end of the range was about 3900 and it appears that SPX may be trying to break out of that range now and these red lines are the spot gamma levels. So we can see at this put wall for example is at 3700 and the call wall and the key gamma strike are up at 4000. So if you have think or swim you may want to try this out. This works pretty well. So this is kind of a bigger view of the playing field. Okay, so while we can see all these levels here let's talk about shifts and levels as well. So the there weren't many the volatility trigger and that is spot gammas proprietary gamma flip level meaning that market makers position below the volatility trigger would be negative gamma. That means that in that situation traders are long puts market makers are short puts and they have to hedge their delta exposure in the direction of price action and above that level market makers would be in a positive gamma position and in that case that means that traders are short calls and this is spot gammas assumption. So market makers are long calls and they have to trade in against price to hedge their delta exposure. So that tends to decrease volatility above the volatility trigger and increase volatility below the volatility trigger. So right now it looks like SPX is trading below that level and the other shifts and levels were the call walls for spy and for QQQ. So the spy call wall jumped from 390 to 410 and the QQQ call wall jumped from 270 to 290 and as a reminder the call wall is the strike with the largest net positive gamma and that can act as resistance. Traders may be selling positions that's just one of the reasons it may act as resistance and it works better for some instruments than others and for example the SPX and spy and QQQ you can expect the call wall to be generally respected a good resistance level. Okay, so that is today. Let's take a look at the S&P 500 charts and I'm going to talk about the absolute gamma levels and this is from spot gamma and this is based on open interest but showing call gamma above the zero line with black lines and put gamma or negative gamma below the zero line and the teal lines. So as I mentioned the put wall is all the way down at 3700 and that strike is not really in play now and there are more levels of negative gamma before that 3700 and those should act as support if price is heading down so there's the 3700 level again and then 4000 is still the absolute or key gamma strike and again that's the strike with the largest absolute gamma and 4000 has been the key gamma strike in SPX for some time and here are the spy levels so 380 that's the put wall and that makes more sense that is that should provide significant support and there's 390 and that is the key gamma strike and there's the call wall up at 410 and that's not really in play either and that may be just based on a technical definition of the greatest net positive gamma. All right, let's take a look some data and as usual I like to look at gamma notional and what this is showing is market makers position on the gamma curve and these levels are both negative this is for SPX and for spy and this indicates that traders are long puts market makers are short puts and as price drops they have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure and as price increases they can buy back those short futures so again in a negative gamma environment market makers are trading in the direction of price and that tends to increase volatility and these levels shifted a little bit more negative from yesterday so yesterday and I compare morning to morning these numbers are posted both in the morning and the afternoon and I compare morning to morning so yesterday morning SPX gamma notional was minus 55 and it has shifted to minus 182 today and yesterday spy gamma notional was minus 869 and it has shifted to minus 1060 today let's take a look at equity hub first so what I want to show is the this shows the call gamma versus put gamma this is for SPX and put gamma is shown in the blue line and call gamma shown with the yellow line and this shows a slight dominance of put gamma over call gamma pretty much throughout the price range from 3000 on up and it's a little bit more pronounced than spy the dominance of put gamma versus call gamma and then finally let's look at the Vana charts and what this is showing is how market makers delta exposure or delta notional changes with changes in price implied volatility and time and the way I interpret this chart is I just draw a line through the green line that makes sense and I can see the slope is going up from right to left and that means that market makers delta exposure increases as price drops and again they have to sell futures as price drops and they can buy back those futures as price increases and then the green line is just showing how that it changes with changes implied volatility and that's the Vana effect and then the black line shows how market makers delta exposure changes with time and that's shown for the next expiration and that is the charm effect and let's take a look at we can look back in time and see how that has changed for more of a neutral setting yesterday to slightly slightly more tilted to the left today and then here's spy and again remember that the spy gamma notional was larger more negative than SPX so this line is more pronounced and sloping from right to left it's steeper alright so that's the that's what we have today for the positional analysis and really I would say not a lot not a lot to conclude or at least from my point of view for yes no significant changes from yesterday slightly more negative gamma notional okay now let's take a look at some setups are there any questions okay no questions so let's start with some setups and I'm going to I'm just going to go through this list in alphabetical order and I did post my list this list right here this watch list in the morning and it might have been a little bit late for some people let's see what time I posted it around 10 a.m. so sorry a little late it was a busy morning so anyway I ranked it from the strongest hero signal to the weakest and I'm just comparing the list and this looks pretty similar at least for the first few stocks first three four right so yeah it looks like it's the same list so this is what I posted this morning ranked from the strongest signal to the weakest signal and this is there was a question about that this list this morning and you can use it however you want and you know I suggest using it as a starting point if you don't have something that you want to trade already and look at your own charts for potential setups if you want to use this list so we'll go I'm going to go through an alphabetical order so the first is apple so here was the hero signal this morning so I thought it provided good confirmation of short and long setups and the the best setup that I I guess the last two spy and Tesla I'll get to those at the end those were those are probably the best setups today so anyway there's apple and let's go to book map now let's go to apple all right there's a question on YouTube can we determine that today's interday move I would say if you want to interpret the if you're looking at swing trading looking at at the future the spot gamma founders note often includes a bigger macro picture and I don't go over that and this in the in my presentation I'll leave that to spot gamma subscribers I'm focusing on interday trading so my my focus is day trading all right apple so remember that hero was sloping down in the morning first and here's here's a bearish setup and this is maybe a better setup certainly the order flow is more clear the reversal hire look at all the green dots coming in and just above the 128 liquidity level with a target at the 130 key gamma strike and all the liquidity there and there were some other let's say one other potential entry point looking at this range the kind of the final shake out and then a a break above the range any anywhere there or if you didn't if you didn't get this first first setup all right let's go back and look at hero one more time so again somewhat bearish hero let's zoom in on this that a little bit of a lead with a strong jump up and traders were both buying calls and selling puts let's just see if changing the look back period gives us any insight and not really not that early in the morning all right that's apple and the next is AMD and I'm actually going to go through all of these that I have on book map and here I thought AMD provided a provided a nice divergence long notice hero trending up pretty much from the open as prices chopping around and you could have taken probably a couple of longs here one at about 950 and one at about 1050 1045 something like that all right let's go take a look let's see what traders are doing so they're both buying calls and selling puts let's go back to book map and pretty choppy morning session and AMD let's zoom in on this so remember the first setup was about 950 and the reversal there with a target at the 68 liquidity level trend break a reversal lower and another trend break and a reversal higher remember hero was bullish all this time so I'm looking for longs and order flow confirms it see all the green dots here let's go back and look at the full day here and again the target is the 68 liquidity so what what might set ups boiled down to our levels order flow and hedging flow and I'm looking all at all that and making a trading decision and levels are round numbers liquidity levels shown a book map and then spot gamma levels that I'm showing on my charts and of course order flow and book map is just watching the things that Bruce talks about the the bullish bearish volume you know that's shown with the pink dots and the green dots market structure I like to look at trend lines and then the hedging flow of course shown by by hero and I like to trade in the direction that market makers are trading I feel that that's that gives me a like a tailwind you know that I want to be on their side not trading against them right so that's AMD next one is Amazon so we're waiting on that will go back to hero let's go to Amazon so traders worth both buying and selling puts and calls let's just look at the total line here and I think the best set up was probably around 1045 and notice the steady steady climb in hero after that let's go back to book map now so there was actually a short set up this morning let's go back and look at the hero again zoom in a bit so here's the short set up so it starts just a little bit before price starts dropping so a little bit of a lead effect as price was approaching that key gamma strike let's see let's go back see what time that first set up was I think so the first set up at 10 1017 for short set up so there it is right there alright so that's Amazon not really much here with Google meta a better set up much stronger correlation here easier to read alright JEC 1045 is when we by we I are you talking about ES shook out a ton of the buyer sellers and reached the days low right after that would rejection high so we'll we'll look at ES in just a minute and I want to look at spy but we'll look at ES and spy at the same time so this is meta let's go to book map so the key here in Amazon is really the this call wall 90 call wall target and all the liquidity there so that's often the case is liquidity stacked up at the or higher at the gamma levels key gamma levels let's go to meta nice strong uptrend here in meta price target the 133 liquidity let's go back to hero now zoom in on the morning so strong correlation between price action hedging flow in the morning and let's just see if can tell exactly what what traders were doing and initially buying calls and selling puts and it looks like they continue to sell puts up until this 130 131 50 level and that is they started to buy puts price dropped a bit and then they started buying calls again and price moved up looks like pat around the 132 level let's go back to book map so that a nice strong uptrend this is the kind of thing that I like to look for and in YouTube NAD ask hi what charts are you looking at and I'm looking at book map in case you're not familiar with this and I'm looking at futures I've looked at ES futures and now I'm looking at stocks and then we'll go back to futures in a moment so I hope that answers your question the other charts that I'm looking at our spot gamma hero and that is showing hero stands for hedging impact real-time options and that is showing market maker hedging flow in response to traders options trades buying and selling calls and puts and the next is Madonna let's go take a look at hero so strong correlation in the morning mainly with traders buying calls and then his price approach the 190 key gamma strike they started selling those calls and haven't done much with puts so that may provide a little bit more clarity so up until about 1020 that was a good good long let's go back to book map so quick quick move higher at the open again the price target 190 it's not shown here because my C levels are this has this upper edge the expected move and that is obscuring obscuring the 190 strike which is the 190 key gamma strike and I have 192 shown in red let me just check let's see what that see if there's any significance to that 192 level or that may be a mistake something that I didn't clean up so that's just something that I didn't clean up so 190 is the key gamma strike and that's the level that's in play today all right let's go back and look at book map okay so Jay says follow Madonna dead on exactly did exactly as you saw I did cash out early though reach profit target well that's great way to go this was a good good setup this morning traders buying calls and obvious price target at the 190 key gamma strike liquidity I set up let's look at Microsoft let's go back to hero so this is what I was looking at in the morning let's go full screen looking at hero rising up until about 1015 1020 something like that and Jay says felt more conviction with Madonna and traders actions meta I avoided I'm still with a lot of uncertainty and met as a whole and I agree meta can be difficult to trade can be pretty choppy at times and I think when Madonna gets going and traders are buying calls that can be a great long and here's Microsoft and traders were buying calls let's go look at book map I'm going to zoom in just on this first hour of trade so here's the first hour again traders traders are buying calls and prices making its way up to the 231 liquidity so there were a couple of long setups and you could have also I think once this trend line was established here's along and another long this trend break retest of the 230 key gamma strike and then the final move up to the 231 liquidity now looks like it's trying to move higher again now to the 230 key gamma strike liquidity you can look at Netflix nice strong uptrend in Netflix let's go to hero so there's Netflix strong correlation between hedging flow and price action and remember the let me just show this list that I posted those of you on YouTube this is the list that I posted so remember Netflix was excuse me at the top of the list and what this is showing this hero signal is comparing the hero signal the strength with the last 30 days and that's shown by the entire range of this slider and you can see it here see it here in this grayer color so that's the last 30 days so this is showing that the hero signal for Netflix at the time that I took this was the strongest that it has been in the last 30 days and that that's shown by this dot here on the far right of this slider scale and then it's also stronger than it has been in the last five days that's shown by the colored portion within the within the entire range so Netflix at the top of the list and let's just take a look at one other thing and actually it's interesting the key gamma strike for Netflix drop down from the previous day so looking at that doesn't always work so that's why you always confirm your that's why I always confirm my thesis with order flow and hedging flow and both were very bullish in Netflix today it looks like traders are buying calls as a stock trader this is something that you want to look for what this the reason is that as traders buy calls market makers sell the calls and they have to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure and as price continues to increase they have to continue to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure nice setup in Netflix let's take a look at Nvidia it looks like a Netflix has been pretty choppy lately and been a little bit more difficult to read in hero I'm just going to skip that let's go on to QQQ much more of a clear signal here in QQQ much stronger correlation easier to read both long and short and traders have been buying calls all day and it looks like initially they were at least buying puts but now they've stopped and started selling puts alright let's go take a look at book map take a look at QQQ and JEC were on the same page here Nvidia has been difficult to trade quite a bit lately it does trend pretty nicely from time to time but it's it is it can be difficult to trade just like meta so initially in the morning long setup pullbacks to the round number levels 270 the key gamma strike and then on up to the volatility trigger and then price makes a lower high back down to 269 so let's go take a look at hero again so here is the there's the long setup in the morning entries at the pullbacks then the reversal lower so long and short entries based on following order flow and hedging flow let's go back to book map so again here's the let's just zoom in on this draw a trend line it doesn't exactly match up anyway price was making higher highs or at least higher lows not a higher high there but higher lows up until the 272 volatility trigger then a push up to 273 then price moves lower makes a lower high back down to 69 let's go to spy so here's what I saw in the morning let's go look at hero now go to spy and this will be the same for ES we'll look at ES too so I saw heroes sloping down making lower highs and I thought this provided several good short setups so let's focus on that first up until about 1045 back to book map look at spy so this is up until that reversal higher at about 1045 and I thought there were three good short setups here two reversals at the volatility trigger again remember heroes dropping and the volatility trigger 389 level can act as resistance and if you miss this one this was you know good setup you can see the absorption here and price reverses lower and then finally the reversal at the 390 key gamma strike and also remember that was the that was the call wall yesterday and liquidity right above there and notice the all the pink dots coming in at that level so really three good short setups actually for you know you can take this lower high at the 389 volatility trigger and then the long setup let's go back and look at hero now so traders are buying calls and that is a that's a bullish sign and it looks like the delta here for calls is greater than the negative delta for puts so we've got traders buying calls and the reversal and book map see all the green dots coming in and targets at the 389 volatility trigger and the 390 key gamma strike all right so that's spy and yes is just another version of the same thing so here are the short setups again I'm showing all the key gamma levels for spy and my notes column and here are those reversals that I just pointed to and spy and there's the long setup and this was at e s 3900 that's what this red number means that ease e s 3900 so hero provided good signals for and levels so again remember I said I'm looking at levels order flow and hedging flow to make trading decisions during the day right let's take a look at Tesla and then there's a question about what about now and that's a question on YouTube JC ask what about now and what what instrument tell me tell me what you want me to look at right let's take a look at Tesla let's go to hero spy JC wants me to look at spy so let's let's take a quick look at Tesla and then we'll go back to spy here's Tesla look at the total signal and I'm looking at the morning session so death definitely bearish and there is a almost always a very strong correlation between hedging flow and price action with Tesla traders market makers I think hedge options trades in Tesla immediately and I think that leads to the strong correlation and traders were both selling calls and buying puts and let's go take a look at book map now Tesla so there's the session of the morning and order flow is definitely bearish you know look at all of the look at all the pink dots here so this these small red dots that shows a cell sweep at this like one twenty two fifty level then aggressive sellers coming in with their market sell orders driving price down and ultimately to the one fifteen liquidity level so nice short set up in Tesla let's go back to hero now some all the way out and then price stops dropping as hero starts to move higher and traders start start selling puts as price reaches that one fifteen liquidity target level they start selling their puts just out of curiosity let's see so this is showing the next expiration which would be this Friday for Netflix or for stocks in general and that would certainly include Tesla the weekly expiration so the next expiration puts and calls calls are shown in green so traders are buying calls and this this lighter blue line here looks that's like looks like that's the next expiration puts not a lot of additional clarity there right so nice nice bearish set up in Tesla this morning and then we looked at a lot of bullish setups otherwise let's go take a look at spy again and I'm going to change the rolling window period here to shorter shorter time frame like thirty minutes is good enough so right now it looks like traders are traders are buying calls and they've started selling puts so the total hero signal is strong at this point let's go take a look at book map so spy has been trending up since about ten forty five a little bit of a lunchtime consolidation here and then started moving higher around twelve thirty so right now I you know it's up to you so you know it looks looks bullish don't know where it's going we'll take a look at spot yes so approaching another resistance level and that is the this level right here the spx volatility trigger which is spx thirty nine fifteen so I would you know if I wanted to be a buyer here I would look look for a deeper pullback and if you're thinking that that thirty nine fifteen spx thirty nine fifteen volatility trigger is going to act at risk act as resistance I would watch hero and look for options traders to start taking negative delta positions before I made any decision at that level so let's go back and look at at hero one last time so right now hero is bullish and again remember we're on a shorter rolling window so this is just looking at the last thirty minutes of data hero is bullish and if again if you expected that level the volatility level of volatility trigger to act as resistance I would certainly look at traders taking negative delta options positions before taking a short there let's just take a look at VIX so it looks like right now VIX has VIX has leveled off made a low of twenty point eighty two may be heading higher that may be a sign let's actually let's take a look at spx see if that provides any additional clues so spx at a thirty minute rolling window shows us that traders are selling calls and not really doing much with puts so I interpret that as bearish so this may be maybe a signal bearish signal so oh I'm sorry can you hear me now okay sorry about that somehow my microphone got muted so you know I would just keep an eye on this you know two potential resistance levels here at at the spy three ninety key gamma strike or if price makes it up to the volatility trigger the spx volatility volatility trigger and let me take a look at questions and YouTube a lot of questions here a lot of comments and Floyd scratch as selling their puts is covering or put selling you no way of knowing so I covered hero for spy right now and the important levels they're in play now are the spy three ninety key gamma strike and again the spx thirty nine fifteen volatility trigger and the volatility trigger JC ask that is through spot gamma that is a spot gamma proprietary level and Floyd scratch as thirty nine fifteen support no thirty nine fifteen resistance that was noted as resistance in the am founder's note spot gamma am founder's note and it looks like it could potentially be resistance today and sorry about the audio think that's worked out now and ancient the architect ask do you post put wall and call wall in morning no I don't those are all I talk about them in the afternoon but in the morning I'll leave that to spot gamma subscribers who are who are paying for that information so that is you know I don't want to I don't want to give their information in the morning but I can you know I feel okay comfortable talking about it in the afternoon and the effort for the rover says yeah you can you know you can look at the look at the order book look at an options chain I so I you know I I subscribe to spot gamma I get all the information that they provide and these levels are part of the information they provide so I'm way over my time thanks for your questions comments thanks for watching today and I will see you tomorrow thanks fine