 So welcome to this week's charting analysis webinar. My name's Jasper Lawler, market analyst here at CNC Markets. I'm going to first take you through the risk warning on the screen here. Any questions at any time, please just send them through the chat or Q&A box. Open to discussing any topic. And indeed any market needs a chart formation. I'll certainly have opinion at least. So certainly feel free to get involved. Nonetheless, I'll be travelling through the major products that our clients tend to focus on. So that's some of the major indices, commodities and effects pairs. And just some of the main drivers for what's going on this week. So the big event as you probably all know this week is given that it's the first week of the month. It's the non-farm payrolls on Friday. It's the most important non-farm payrolls since the last one. I know I'm being a little bit sarcastic, but we are supposedly approaching a time when the Federal Reserve in the US is looking to raise interest rates. And so this is the major data point on the US economic calendar. So of course we're going to focus on it. But there are some other interesting events going on this week. For those trading the British pound at some degree, the UK 100. We've got the Bank of England setting rates on what's deemed Super Thursday. It's super because not only do they set the rates, they also release the minutes at the same time, which they've been doing at every meeting now. And on this event they also release their growth in inflation forecasts. So if I quickly skim through some of the other things to look out for this week. Today we had a lot of PMI manufacturing data. The general theme has been and partly explains why European markets are higher today. I know it's like just edging it, is that there was a general improvement in Europe and a massive improvement in UK manufacturing according to the final numbers for October. So that was surprising because obviously we're all focusing on the slowdown in China. The Chinese numbers were slightly improved, not fantastic. There's the official one. There's a couple of private ones mixed together. It was all a bit sort of unchanged, which probably better than sharp declines. So actually those are kind of global slowdown fears that have been driving part of the reason for the slide that we saw in August. They're coming off the table a bit. So another reason to suggest that this recent rally in equities has been justified and we'll look at some of these major indices that have been doing that. We've got the RBA rate decision sort of early hours tomorrow. We've got Draghi speaking tomorrow in Frankfurt. We've got some more PMIs on Wednesday and of course the ISM non-manufacturing is on Wednesday. Worth mentioning that we've still got the ISM manufacturing for today. Yellen speaking on Wednesday, but not expected to be too much in regard to monetary policy. We've got the BOE rate decision on Thursday and then on Friday we've obviously got the non-farm payroll support. So the general consensus is 180,000 jobs created on the NFP. So broad-colour way to approach this if you are trading the event is just either you have some opinions to whether 180 is over or undervalued. I would suggest that's a risky approach. These economists often get it pretty wrong. So to some extent maybe if you are placing a trade before the event, you're just making a judgment on how wrong the economists' estimates are rather than doing the trickier job that the economists have of actually pinpointing exactly how many jobs are created. So to some extent your job's a little bit easier there or you can certainly approach a waiting for the number to come out. Judge how much variance there is between the actual number and the consensus forecast number and make a trade based on that. You have to be quick to capture initial momentum. Sometimes it gaps away. The other approach is to judge how far the market moves and judge whether that was justified based on the change between the actual and forecast number and actually fade the initial move back maybe back towards where the market started before the news release. So with all that data in mind, let's compare to expertise. It's worth mentioning that for the UK100 or the FTSE100 rather, it was the best month since 2013 last month. So it was a good one and you can see right from the beginning of October we rallied up. People kind of sideways stalled a little bit towards the end. The FTSE100 underperformed some of the European and US indices towards the end of the month. Nonetheless, the first part of the month carried it into being one of the best months in a while. At the moment, you can see in the chart form here that I've just said that it's below this little rising trend line. There's only two connecting points on there. It's not the strongest level but something to bear in mind. There's sort of a bearish bias towards perhaps the bottom of this sideways range that we've been in which you can see has pretty much been between the 50% fib of this declines in April and the 38.2. That's kind of where the range has been. Obviously we had a false breakout above, we've had a false break below but that's kind of what's securing it. So if we do get a dip into this zone, it's been tested one to arguably three times before but nonetheless quite strong support here. And I would say this is the kind of pivotal level here. If we do drop below this, I would say about 6,260, given that we've had some RSI bearish divergence here. We've failed at the 50 several times. I've dropped through there. To my mind, it takes us back down to 5,900. It would be the next major support. Worth calling out quickly just to bear in mind where we generally are. We had a sharp decline there from April through August and we're just in kind of catch-up mode that you can see we've not made up. That's what the 50% means is that we've only made up half the ground of the declines. So even though it was a strong month last month, still got a fair bit to do. So in terms of the quick summary for everyone trading the UK 100, we're trapped in a range. So the choice is buying the bottom range, selling it at the top of the range or waiting for a breakout on one of those two. But I think because we have been consolidating for a while, of course you can get false breaks. But talking about the genuine break that happens, I think could carry us quite strongly. Potentially some resistance above from that former trend line and 61.8% retracement on a higher breakout plus that 200 days. So several layers of resistance above, down not so much. So it's an interesting potential breakout trade here. Let's skip across to the Germany 30. Here I've zoomed down to a lower timeframe. So this is the three-out chart. Now, obviously it looks more dramatic than the daily chart we were just looking at. Nonetheless, the Germany 30 has outperformed the UK 100, at least in those last few weeks where the UK was going kind of sideways. Germany was powering forward. And I mentioned in the previous week's webinar that we have a double bottom that's been confirmed here. So the objective for that double bottom pattern would be the 100% of this height of the pattern would be up here at this 11, 750 kind of area which corresponds to this potential zone of resistance from these peaks back in August, July and June. And so this is characteristics of a characteristic of a bull flag pattern. You know, a strong kind of pole to the flag here. And then this is the kind of rough kind of flag area. We've had a big move up today and we're kind of pushing up above, you know, last week's high. And so technically a breakout take place at the moment. We've not had a close for the day above. So near some caution to be had still. But an intraday breakout of the height. To my mind, the trend in the short term is higher. So we've got a both breakout within a height, within an uptrend. But of course we're below that 200 day moving average. People are going to be a bit cautious. And we do have that low which I've highlighted on our chart from July 27th which could scupper a breakout. Nonetheless, keep in mind that that's the eventual objective. But that's not to say it can't drop even below the bottom of this flag before eventually reaching that target. So try not to confuse, you know, a little short term pattern like this flag with the longer term objective. Just because you may get there. You may get to this 11750. But it's not to say it can't chop around a lot in the meantime. And false break a lot of short term bullish patterns. Here's 30, our practice for the Dow Jones. And I mentioned here in the chart form, we've got a bit of an unconvincing looking bearish and golfing pattern here. So technically the whole day of Friday engulfed the whole day of Thursday. But Thursday was a very low range day and Friday was fairly low range. So a little false break, then a bearish. So you know, that is generally quite a decent pattern. We see the false break at the high and then it closes below the previous days low. That is a nice pattern to trade. But we are in a strong uptrend and that was not a massively convincing bearish day. And I suspect we could get another little push higher, potentially break the higher. Then to be aware if we get a false break in the next few days of that peak from Friday, that could be a more conclusive bearish pattern. Because we didn't want to pull in the one peak and then we'll have gone up and do like a little mini double top. So sort of thing that you can probably see a little bit better on say the four hour chart. If we come up here again, fail here or fail just above maybe the 7900 level, 17900 then come lower. That would be something probably a bit more conclusive to suggest this trend running at a steam. But you know a few things to keep in mind here. This peak from July 31 and this declining trend line, two reasons to suggest the market could peter out here. But on the bullish side we've made it convincingly above that. You know we've peaked above the 200 day moving edge, pushed off it, correcting a little bit from this resistance here. But so far trend is up in the bias. It's got to be for a push probably into the 18000 level. Should we not get that false break at that high that I mentioned? That's equities. You know certainly feel free to let me know if there's some other indices you wanted to cover. I'll quickly show you just the NASDAQ because that's been one of the strongest. You can see that we're literally at the highs on the NASDAQ which is pretty crazy given the decline that we've seen in Apple stock when everyone's really worried about the U.S. tech sector. The tech sector's carried U.S. stocks higher again. This 4816, that would be a record high for the NASDAQ 100 which we could conceivably see this week. I believe we have Facebook earnings this week. So that would be a possible catalyst of pushing the U.S. NASDAQ 100 up into that 4800 vicinity. Assuming that Facebook puts in some good results. They have been recently. I'm not going to go into too much depth here. Double top, sorry, if it fails. Obviously that wouldn't be confirmed until a sort of breakout of one of these lows that the pattern wouldn't be completed until down here but still an early entry in would be on some sort of bearish candlestick on the weekly or daily chart and around here. Again, a bit like the Dow, a bearish and golfing candle here but that to me is probably going to be catching more people out thinking that people are going to be tempted to go in short there but this is sort of a strongly bullish market. I would be more hesitant. So it was quite a big week for central banks last week and it is again this week particularly if you're trading a pound. So let's jump into the pound. Again, it's a dollar. Now I think the thing to focus on overall is that we're in this range. We're in this 151 to 158 slash 59 range and so let that bearish all your decisions just to know that the trends are not going to, you know, trends into this low area aren't likely to last too long and say like this trend that began here, you know, saw a big sort of false break in this declining line and bias came all the way down here. It's a range of our markets because these trends are not continuing as fast as you might hope in this sort of environment where putting consistently higher highs and higher lows in or lower highs and lower lows, you know, it's a range. And so, you know, say like last week, you know, we saw a bounce off that trend line and saw a dip down to this low. Now, you know, this was, this trend here to me was a sign that we were drifting back into this low was when we finally just broke below this previous peak and weren't able to bounce and push back through the trend line again. That was probably the first time we had the false break through the trend line and then this was the confirmation once we finally broke through that peak was that that was telling us that we're not in strong bull mode. I was telling us that we're still in choppy sideways we're in mode. And so, but then we did, you know, jump down to these two candles open and close found support again corresponding with this rising RSI trend line. And so, I did have a RSI line like this false break to the top side back down in again and then so then, you know, that didn't turn out to be the greatest of lines a few false whipsaws around there. The next one is just the horizontal line through these two peaks which I think probably a few people will be noticing it's around the 65 level. So, after having being oversold twice, a push through 65 would take us out of the bearish mode to the market and push us back into sideways mode and then should we get overboard again then my bias would be turning a bit more bullish and expecting a push back to the top of the range around 158. As far as the details of the Bank of England, the sort of joke that's being thrown around at the moment is there's not going to be any fireworks from the Bank of England. It's bonfire night obviously on Thursday. The expectation is that the voting is going to remain eight to one and probably they're going to ease off on their growth and inflation forecast which would be probably on the whole a bit bearish for the pound. That would obviously be thrown off a bit should we see a change in the voting. There's a risk that it could go to seven to two. That would be if Kristen Forbes got involved. She's orientating a bit towards the hawkish side in the belief of a rate rise. But still, that would be a slight shock and could tilt us towards a breakout of these technical levels that we're talking about in the pound but otherwise I think it's probably fairly damaged as the expectation. We could just have a quick look at euro sterling for those who are interested. Similar situation really. We've got to bear in mind that we're in this horizontal range. It looked like we could be set for a breakout but once we failed here, that was the first sign of failure at the old peak and then the next sign was the break in his rising trend line and then we had a nice follow through down there and a subsequently broken these two potential levels of support as well. So pretty bearish. Default was dropped back into this area of support zone here at the bottom of this range. Let's take a look at the euro. Obviously it tanked pretty severely after the ECB meeting with the surprisingly strong hints at further easing at the December meeting. So as I mentioned in the chart forum here, 111 is pretty key because it is a confluence of potential resistance from these two lows from September. We saw a bounce off it, a break of it, a little retest, a drop down. Now we're looking at a secondary test. So if we can close above it, then actually maybe the focus of the market will be more this horizontal range in a caps down here and resistance above here more than this triangle pattern. But if we do see us, the market fall away from this vicinity, then that's a break, retest, break, another retest failure. Again, it's a pretty bearish sign and I think we could roll over, potentially break the 108 low and head down into the bottom of a range characterized by these two lows back in March and April. So watch out for a close above or below 111 in the next few days, to my mind that's going to be key. As I mentioned, Draggy speaking tomorrow could well be a catalyst. He was talking over the weekend, a bit of a step back from the very dovish ECB meeting saying that the ECB is open to more stimulus. So maybe not as affirmative as perhaps the meeting suggested that December is definitely happening. We've seen inflation tick higher since the ECB meeting. So in the next report for CPI, which will be in about a month's time, should that see inflation above zero again, then maybe there's no action from the ECB whatsoever or maybe they just sort of decide to cut the deposit rate or something, which was hinted at a bit in this meeting saying that they actually did discuss cutting the deposit rate so the interest rates are not of a lower bound as previously stated by President Draggy. And so that would, to my mind, would obviously be further easing but not be quite as exciting to the market as an expansion of QE to perhaps 80 million euros a month purchases or just extending the timeline perhaps indefinitely. Both of those would be pretty euro dovish, euro bearish. Cut to the deposit rate may be a bit of a disappointment and that could be the trigger for us getting back above 112. Dolly Yen, what can you say? We're just still in this range. Last week we failed twice to get through the 121.50 slash 122 kind of resistance area and we're still in this range trading environment and my default assumption is that we're drifting back down to 119 and possibly 118 from here and currently say much else until we're outside of this range. Love and life if you're a range trader kind of a youth of the aggressive way to play this is selling at 121 and buying at 119. We've worked a lot of times in the past few months but obviously it can't work forever. At some point we're going to get a breakout but it's not too obvious which way at this stage. One of the reasons is that last week we had the Bank of Japan there was a bit of expectation that they might actually add extra stimulus. They didn't and so now a lot of people kind of giving hope on that respect. If the BJA is not doing more, especially in the light of China and Europe doing more and particularly if the Fed holds off a rate rise in December the momentum will be judged as shifting away from the Bank of Japan easing and we could see the dollar weekend and the euro weekend and the pound weekend bounce against the yen. Now let's switch over to commodities. Gold obviously being one of the most sort of sensitive to the Federal Reserve. Now it's no surprise really we used to have this breakout when it looked after the September meeting and it just looked like a rate rise this year was completely off the table. That was shattered last week somewhat and this was Wednesday when the Fed said in their latest October meeting when they suggested through the statement that a December rate rise is still on the table. You saw gold rising in anticipation of a double statement and severely disappointed. I think it was about a sort of $40 odd, $35 maybe round trip for gold. Pretty bearish day before we've headed south in the three days since. A little bit of interim support I would suggest here from this 8th of October low but there was only one day to the left that was higher the previous day below that was actually had a lower day so not a particularly strong support to my mind. I like to see lows defined by two higher closes on either side of the low. To characterize it as a significant swing point so not the case here. Nonetheless, I haven't actually checked the FIBO level. I don't think it's as relevant given that we're in a fairly sort of sideways market that might have a bit of confluence from the, there you go, sort of looked like it at the 61.8% FIBO level got a bit of confluence from that low. Together could be the rest of people a little bit of bounce and gold here but I'm still suspecting that even if we get a little bounce maybe back to that broken potential support zone from these two peaks we eventually to my mind probably head down to the bottom of this rising channel and I think any decisive changing in gold probably is going to have to wait really for that December Fed meeting. If the non-farm payrolls on Friday is strong that's probably gold down to the bottom of the channel here perhaps even down to the 1105 low. We can an expected report but that may be the catalyst for gold to push back into the range again maybe even back above the 200 day. I didn't mention actually that with the Fed obviously we've got the headline number which is 180,000 jobs expected but almost more important than that is the wage growth. That's been flat for the last couple of months and so people are really looking for signs that the slack as they like to call it is coming out to the labour market that labour market conditions are tightening and this weak wage growth is just a sign that there's still some slack in there and it kind of raises a question over how indicative, how good of a useful indicator is the unemployment rate of 5.1%. Is that really telling us the true picture about the labour market if there's no wage growth and the participation rate i.e. how many people in the economy are all the people eligible to work? How many of those are actually attempting to get jobs? It's at multi-decade lows at the moment so those two things are sort of weighing on otherwise 5% unemployment rate should have raised rates ages ago I think probably should nonetheless but still a couple of reasons there with those other indicators suggest things are not quite as rosy as they suggest. So watch out for that average hourly earnings number even if we get a miss and 180K comes in perhaps at 170 or something if we see wage growth that overall could be taken as a bullish sign for the Fed meeting in December a hawkish sign rather. Now let's look at silver. This has certainly been tricky recently. I've been trying to trade a few RSI signals here to little avail. So what we've had is we've had just to set you back is we had some negative divergence there so that eventually worked out but they just to say we had a this trend line as it turned out worked out pretty well but if you'd sold here based on this higher high and the price higher low in the RSI and if you sold down in one of these candles you would probably have stopped out above that old high and then there was also a slightly less commonly used RSI indication where there was a lower low in RSI yet a high high in price. So as I mentioned down here that's a RSI positive reversal that worked but immediately reversed into a bearish candlestick and took us below that was sort of a rising trend line there so all sorts of chops taking place in silver definitely tricky to trade right now and right now we're into this sort of 40 zone so from having been overbought at this point we're now into the stages where this is kind of our last string of telling us we're in a bullish market before we kind of give up hope below this 40 level and that's our kind of bullish zone in RSI is above 40 after having been overbought so a bit similar to gold obviously in that we've got this support here which is stronger than the gold support which is what we're coming off at the moment is this October 8th low but my suspicion again is that we probably do break this 40 level and come and test this declining trend line slash this peak from December 25th and finally I think it was Brent that I looked at on the crude oil front just because I thought that that sort of nicely defined where we were false break below the RSI support held nicely onto the lowest point in the last few months, the 15th of September low got a little hammer off there and then a nice break out to the top side the following day so you know if you'd send that hammer off for low put a little buy stop, obviously the benefit hindsight we know it's worked but just a little reference this did work quite well there's something along these lines a little buy stop above there or even a market order when we saw that break out took us nicely up to this previous range resistance just saw to this previous peak from here on the 16th of October so we're basically back into range trading conditions we're coming off the 50 psychological level at the moment my assumption is that we probably push back through it and remain in range of unconditions fundamentals for oil are not good but they're not significantly worth than they have been in the past few months US oil inventories they're going through a kind of stage of building at the moment so more barrels of oil left over demand not quite meeting supply but it's been fairly cyclical and we'll probably, I wouldn't be surprised to see that changing in the next week or so to a few drawdowns so not much I would say to be drawn conclusions to be drawn from that in terms of which way we finally break out at this range so that's it that's the major markets covers for this week I hope that was useful keep in mind obviously we've got the FOMC this week still got ISM manufacturing later today on Monday we've got the ADP report Wednesday we've got the Bank of England Thursday so there's a lot going on so good luck with trading this week thanks a lot for your time Jasper Lawsoni out