 Aloha, and welcome to today's show, The State of the State of Hawaii, on ThinkTech Hawaii's live streaming network series, ThinkTech Hawaii broadcast from our studio at 1164 Bishop Street at the core of downtown Honolulu, as well as through remote connections. And that's what we're doing today as the remote connection for me and for our guest who on my will introduce. I'm Stephanie Stoll Dalton, and I'm your host for today's show. Now, as you know, in this election year, we have a strong cadre of office seekers racing to replace the current Honolulu City and County Mayor Codwell. His term ends this year, obviously. This show, The State of the State of Hawaii, has interviewed several of the mayoral candidates over the last two months. We will continue to invite all of them to ThinkTech Hawaii's remote access discussion forum to learn as much as we can and to offer you that opportunity to know these candidates and how they're running and what they're running for. And it's a marvelous group of our Hawaiian friends. Today, my guest is Associate Professor Colin Moore from the University of Hawaii at Manoa, where he is the Director of the Public Policy Center. Dr. Moore has scholarly expertise in public policy and numerous publications on politics, governing, and health policy, including peer-reviewed articles on Hawaii's situation. Welcome Professor Colin Moore. Happy to be here. Thank you for joining us today for this interview conversation. In your articles focusing on Hawaii, you describe the state as prosperous. Now that we're in the age of COVID-19, do you believe it will remain prosperous, at least in the short term, or do you see changes coming? And then we can discuss what impact that might have on the mayor's role. How are you looking at it now? Well, I have certainly changed my tune. I mean, Hawaii is in the unique position of moving from the state with one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country to the highest in a matter of weeks. And that's not going to change anytime soon. I mean, tourism, fortunately, we've been so far remained relatively unscathed by COVID-19 here in Hawaii. We have one of the lowest rates of infection in any state. The damage to our economy will be devastating. Tourism will be one of the last industries to come back anywhere. But because of our dependence on tourism, it's going to hit us particularly hard. I think realistic estimates are that the state budget will need to be cut by significant amounts. Probably we're going to have a 20% drop in revenue from tax collections. So not to mention the fact that we have nearing 40% of people unemployed right now. That won't last forever. It'll probably balanced out around 20%, but that's still incredibly high. I mean, our challenge in the past has always been that although there were a lot of jobs here, the cost of living was prohibitively expensive for most people. So I think we're likely to enter one of the most challenging periods in the state's history. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that. And this is going to involve a lot of hard choices for state leaders who in the past have been pretty good about kicking the can down the road. I mean, that is the traditional mode of operation in state and city and county government. I think it's to avoid making a lot of hard decisions. And so I think this is going to present real existential challenges to the state. We are already under a certain amount of financial pressure from the rail at the city and county level, from the state for unfunded pension liabilities. And this is going to take all of those existing problems and just magnify them. Well, I know very little about the technical aspects of the budget. But I thought it might be interesting to see if you knew a little bit about it that would help us understand how it all goes. I mean, yes, the tourism is going away. And maybe the high rates of construction spending, those might go on. Do you think those might go? I mean, these are the income into Hawaii. So what do you think about the construction spending? Is it likely we'll continue with that since they're on contract, right? Some of it will certainly continue. And I don't imagine that the projects that are currently under construction are going to stop. And the state has a lot of what they call shovel-ready projects, assuming they can get the bonding authority to fund them, infrastructure projects, things like that. Those are the sorts of things the state should be spending money on in a recession. Those are high-paying jobs, they're union positions. They inject a lot of money into the economy. But the trouble is, is that Hawaii, like nearly every state, with the exception of Vermont, has a balanced budget requirement. And so it's limited in its ability, both to float bonds and to spend beyond certain revenue projections. It's complicated how that's all figured out here. But basically, it makes it very difficult for states to do what the federal government does, which is to borrow a lot of money and continue spending in a recession. We really are dependent on some of the bills that are going through Congress right now, which basically allow states to borrow money from the Federal Reserve, which sort of in some cases give them direct grants from the federal government or forgivable loans. And those are the sorts of things that could keep construction projects going, that could keep public employees employed. I think one of the big errors in the last recession was a big drop in the hiring and support for public employees. That really just exacerbated what was already going on. Well, is there any hope in the military spending levels continuing and maybe being a source of dependable income? Oh, yes. I mean, if it weren't for the military, we would be in tremendous trouble right now. I mean, the military is a huge percentage of the local economy. That will absolutely continue. And so that's why things won't completely fall off the cliff. But tourism still generates a tremendous amount of our revenue. I noted that in that 17 article, 2017, you had 12.4% of the state's gross domestic product is coming out of the military spending. And then I wondered if there was another backfill, which is can the state give the city county money? Yeah. And as you say, it's going to be. I mean, is that an option? Well, yes. To the extent that the state has any money to give. I mean, I think that there is the city and county source of revenue, which they are very unlikely to pursue, is probably something like raising property taxes. But that will not be greeted politically very, very well by most people who live here. But that's one of their sources of revenue. It's their primary source of revenue. For the state, it's the general excise tax. And I don't think the state's going to be in a position to bail out anybody. And so really, I mean, if we're talking about this, we're talking about federal money coming into the states. That's really the only thing that can help now without just dramatic retrenchment on all levels. We might not be the right color. But anyway, back to our topic, what do you think? Well, you raise an interesting point, which is actually why I'm optimistic. Because Mitch McConnell has tried the majority leader of the Senate to portray this as a blue state bailout. But actually, the red states are going to need this money just as badly. And so I do believe that there's going to be some form of fairly generous federal bailout that will come to all the states. Because the conservative states are, in some cases, in just as bad of shape. Well, fingers crossed on that. And what do you see then as the changes for City County Honolulu, which is, of course, within the context of Hawaii and context of the nation and the global COVID-19. But what do you see as happening in the mayoral role that is different, not different, same, same, or people can kick it still down the road? What do you think might happen? What kind of dynamics will go on there? That's a great question. I mean, before COVID-19, before the pandemic, I think there really was certainly a lot of frustration with Hawaii's existing political class. I mean, that's true throughout the state. The polling numbers demonstrate that and the Democratic Party. But people are really uncertain where to turn, because the Republican Party here really is unviable. So how the shapes of the mayor's race, which I should add, is a nonpartisan race, is I think it actually will benefit the more well-known trusted candidates. So by saying that, I mean that probably Kuling Honabusa is going to benefit the most from this situation. I think people are going to be looking for experience for someone they know and trust. Whereas before this happened, I would say that voters were probably more willing to take a chance on someone. I think there was room for more of a populist outsider to run. Now, I wouldn't characterize really anyone with the exception of maybe June James as a real outsider in this race. But I think taking a chance on someone who wasn't largely thought of as part of Hawaii's political class was more likely. Now, I'm not so sure. But we have, I mean, if you look at the four major candidates, and we can break those down if you like, I think that they all kind of bring something to the table. But I mean, there's a few that stand out to me as probably likely to be the most competitive. And then do you see those as the ones who have a track record here in the city and have strengths already demonstrated? Well, for some, yes. And for others, they've never held political office. And but they were likely to be competitive candidates. So I mean, so really we're looking at two politicians and two businessmen. Those are the four major candidates we have. And so you have Colleen Honabusa. We'll start with her, who for us has tremendous experience from her time in the state legislature to the US Congress. And she's really running on that track record of experience. She's drawing a lot of attention to her time as the chair of the heart board because rail is likely to be the biggest issue still that emerges from this campaign. In terms of other issues, it's hard to tell the difference in many ways between all of these candidates. They haven't really staked out really clear positions on the issues. But Honabusa is really running on experience. Now she had some trouble in her last campaign when she ran against David Ige, which a lot of people thought she was going to win. And then she lost and Ige won fairly handily given how much trouble he was in before. But I expect that Honabusa is going to run on her experience. She has, although she's extremely well known, so that's the other thing that will help her during this COVID crisis. Because the other unusual thing about this race is that there's not a lot of time to campaign. And so the lesser known candidates don't have many opportunities to get their name out there. Yes, that's why we're offering them this forum. Which they should take advantage of, for sure. Well, then tell me what you see as the tasks that will emerge that are normal as a result of the condition of COVID. What are these whoever's in the office, what will they face? What is it that these people should be thinking about as their challenge? To me, it seems like it should be quite a scary prospect. It will be quite a scary prospect. I mean, I think if I were running for mayor, I would re-evaluate whether or not I really wanted the job. Because it is going to be, I mean, the economy really will be a burning ruin. And being mayor at a time like that is a very unpleasant situation. Because nobody is going to like what you're doing. I mean, you're going to be cutting things. Projects that you would like to work on as mayor are going to be probably impossible. And so really, your primary goal is just to sort of steady the ship and hope that you can manage the fiscal fallout from the pandemic crisis. That's really going to be the primary responsibility. There won't be money to fund the sorts of projects that mayors would often want to highlight. It's really going to be sort of, I mean, your role will be like an ER doctor playing triage and trying to balance all of these interests. Because there's not going to be much expansion. I mean, it sort of pains me to say that. Because the city has a tremendous number of problems that we could try to work on managing better, homeless among them. And I don't think much of any of that's going to be possible. It's really going to be trying to reduce spending so you can provide necessary city services like police, fire, and homeless services. And we're keeping the roads paved as well as you can. That is really frightening. Well, I think that some of the things that you've talked about have come from the perspective of what the mayor has to do. And we'd like to hear anything more about that that you want to share. But what should the citizens be thinking about in choosing to vote for mayor? I mean, what should they be looking for? Yeah. I think citizens should be thinking about who they trust and who they think is competent. And by competent, I mean people who have the sort of long-term experience in government to manage a crisis like that. And to understand the competing interests from union interests to city services, to manage that, probably someone who has a good working relationship with the state legislature, because they will need to ask the state for money. And the state, if it gets money from the federal government, will be in a position to grant some. And running a government agency is very different from running a business. I do think that there certainly are people from the business community who have done a good job. And that could be the case here, too. So I think it really partly comes down to whose background do you trust the most to run the city at this time? Is it the two candidates with a lot of experience in government? Or do you think a fresh approach would be better? And then you really have two fairly well-known figures in the business community. Maybe that's what the city needs. I mean, that would really allow it to take a fresh look at what's being done. Maybe there are ways to make city operations more efficient, to leverage their contacts with the business community, to work on public-private partnerships, which is often the way city infrastructures built these days. So I think it comes down to whose experience do you trust? And of those four candidates, who do you think has the leadership qualities to do what is one of the most difficult things to do in government, which is to run a huge agency when your budget is cut by 20%? Yeah, this is even blacker than I had previously thought about it. But I see that you mentioned leadership. And we have had a deficit in the leadership department at a number of levels. I guess people have just been taken by surprise with the severity of what we face at every level. But you also point out the business issues, those who've had that kind of experience, and we have those among the candidates. And that might instill a confidence in the voter as to somebody being able to come up with remedies. Because it's certainly going to take a business person who's used to working budgets and doing that kind of swap around that's going to have to be done. And like you say, have that relationship with the state, because it might be that's where the money may come. I guess there's a possibility that an administration could think about funding cities that are hurting too. But probably that would be way down the list after the states. But that might be one something to keep in mind that maybe there's a plea that could be made for out of the city county situation for support. But that's probably not as likely as the state getting the money. So then when it gets to actually doing the work during the business of cutting and shifting funds and playing Peter and Paul and all of that kind of thing, they're going to have to come up with remedies. And not just political remedies. I mean, they're going to need those too. They're going to need some imagination. So there's going to have to be that kind of thinking going on too. Do you agree with something like that? I mean, I'm just perusing here on what it is that these people, whoever it is, has to face the challenge of. And I mean, I see somebody like Colleen Honabusa with so much experience. And of course, with one, GRD is so experienced. And so in different ways, they bring different skills and capacities to it. That's right. I mean, you have this interest. I mean, I think voters have a good choice of candidates this year. I mean, you have two very experienced people, one on the government side, Colleen Honabusa, one on the business side, Rick Blanchiarty. And you have two also experienced but younger candidates in Keith Amemia on the business side and Kim Pine on the government side. And so I think that they're, I mean, and that's good for this sort of election because this election is not going to be about some sort of particular policy issue. This election is really going to be about who voters trust, like I've said before. And so I think I expect the campaigns mainly to be about their backgrounds. There'll be some ideas about what they're going to do. But the truth of the matter is they don't really know what they're going to do. Nobody does. No one knows the full extent of this crisis. So really, if I were, I mean, and I will vote, but I mean, I think voters should think about who has the, who do they trust with this? I mean, listening to them talk about how they'd handle the problems or think through the problems, I think will be an important part of the campaign. But also who has the experience to do this? And in that way, I think it benefits Blanchiarty and Hanabusa because they're older, because they're going to be perceived as people with a little more gravity toss. Now, at the same time, Alamea has a lot of backing from a lot of influential business interests. He's raised a lot of money for his campaign. So that does go to show his strong relationship with the business community. So this is one of these interesting elections where I have a very hard time predicting because Kim Pine also brings not only her legislative experience, but she has been much more focused on family issues, which is going to be a big part of what a lot of local working families face. If I had to guess, well, no one is going to get the 50% plus one majority that you need to win outright in August. I'm almost certain that's not going to happen. So I expect that Colleen Hanabusa will make it through to the next round. And the other candidate, I'm not sure. I think all the other three candidates have a shot. But given the level of support and the amount of campaign that's going on already, I think the favorite is Keith Alamea. Oh, interesting. I heard an interview with him. And he was very, very strong on leadership and support coming out of his major athletic association role. And that was very well received in the discussion. I thought, though, that he was young and less experienced in the ways you've mentioned we have two senior people running. So yeah. Oh, sorry. Go ahead. I was going to say that it's true. I think that this athletic association experience might not be enough for voters. I mean, that is very different than running huge media interests for decades or for serving in the US Congress. I think he's going to face a lot of pushback from the other candidates by claiming that as the kind of experience you need to be the mayor of the city and county of Honolulu, which people forget is actually one of the larger cities in the United States. Because it's the entire island of Oahu. Well, I'm just thinking that what we're not getting a whole lot of is the empathetics, empathetic, moral support, values laden, goal directed, those kinds of things that the coach does. So it may be that he does bring a special toolkit for people to get through it. And I think that would be important to the citizens here is somebody that can make you feel a little bit better about the situation or that you've got the strength to step up to it. I think that's exactly right. That's what voters are going to be looking for, which actually may be fine for some candidates like Hanabusa and Blangiarity who sometimes come across as a little abrasive. This may be a time where voters are just fine with that. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. That's a good point. Well, that's what's going to be very, very interesting to see. And if anybody else, I guess it's still not too light for somebody to pop onto the scene. I mean, maybe there's a masochist out there that's looking for something to get his or her teeth. I doubt we're going to see anyone appear at this point. I mean, everyone knows that this is going to be a rough job. And whoever takes it, unless they get lucky and handle it particularly well, the danger is you just become a punching bag for a lot of things that you really can't control. Yeah, that really, it just hurts to think about it. You know, we're running out of time here. So what I'd like to do is see if there's anything you'd like to say to the audience, which as you know is specific and mainland and international. So I mean, do you have anything to say about what you know about Hawaii and where we're going? You know, there's always an opportunity in a crisis. You know, that's always something that is open when you have a moment like this. You really can change a lot of things because people are willing to make change because you have no choice. And so I hope the state doesn't waste this. I think that Hawaii hasn't done anything very brave in a long time. If you look at the legislative accomplishments of the 70s and that period, we haven't been forced into that position in quite some time. And this might be the moment. This might be the moment to restructure a lot of aspects of state government and make some of the changes that have been required for so long because I don't think kicking the can is an option anymore. Well, we'll have to wrap it up. I'm Stephanie Stone-Dalton and this is the state of Hawaii on the Think Tech Live Streaming Network series. We've been talking remotely with Dr. Colin Moore about campaigning for the office of mayor of Honolulu City and County in the age of COVID-19. Thank you so much. I'll see you again in two weeks and mahalo for your attention, everyone. Aloha.