 Hi, gollun, yw'r morhod, yw wedi'i gweithio 23 o'r Gwchtynbol yn hyn o'r 8 o'r clwch arall, yn Llywodraeth. Mae'r cyfeirio'n ysgrif, oherwydd y cyfnod brexit. Maen nhw'n ymgylched yn ymgei nhw, rydyn nhw'n ymgylched. Yn ymgylched yma, mae'r bwysig yn eu cyfnod ar gŵr, ond mae'n cymryd yn ychydig yma ond mae'r gweithio ar y cynnig. Mae'n gweithio ar gyfer y cerddur o'r rhagol, oedd y pwn o'r hwnnw o'r hwnnw, sy'n dweud o'r hwnnw i gyflwyno yma o'r hwnnw, a fyddwn i'r 1.30, a'r 1.23, byddwn i'r hwnnw o'r hwnnw o'r 129 o'r hwnnw o'r ddod. Mae'r 106 o'r hwnnw o'r hwnnw o'r hwnnw o'r hwnnw o'r hwnnw o'r hwnnw, The first vote went the government way, which is the first time a majority win in the House of Commons for any Brexit deal, so the Wav vote going through the first time has been a majority a win there for the government at 329 to 299. Of course it wasn't all that simple from from then on as we know the next vote the the vote on the timetable to push plans through the government well in just three days the government was therefore defeated 322 to 308 the MPs saying they need more time to scrutinise the plans. So if we have a look at the reaction in the pounds going back to to the chart here you can see it's come under pressure from that I guess this more uncertainty now you know what we haven't got the confirmation whether there is going to be an extension. EU's Tusk came out and tweeted pretty much straight after that he was very much in favour and he was going to recommend the EU 27 to accept the UK request for an extension for this I'll propose a written procedure so you know still up in the up in the air this uncertainty which is probably what is still weighing on the pound because you know I'll go through my personal reasons and opinions why actually this is overall you know medium term anyway a positive for the pound the only reason we could continue to come lower consistently would be if no deal was looking ever more like in Europe have kind of shown their hand we're completely not wanting that and obviously parts of parliament as well so for me I do see the pounders as a buy over the coming days if not today given the right scenario in play but yeah last night government defeated on the second boat however first win majority something Theresa May failed to do three times before so overall yesterday you could even say it was a bit of a win for Boris he came out after and said his his policy still very much remains to to leave remains to leave on October 31st however the government have left a short extension on the table a couple of comments that have come through as well following this if parliament's delay is agreed by Brussels which as you saw from Donald Tusk looks likely then the only way the country can move on is within an election so we'll talk about the election how that could happen if that was to be motioned this week and then the reaction that it would perhaps have for the pound at the moment conservatives look like they would be able to get more of a majority which would of course give an increased chance of getting any deals through something Theresa May famously tried in 2017 albeit it backfired quite dramatically on that Thursday evening other comments Justice Secretary Robert Buckton said it was undeniably frustrating to have lost the program motion which would have given MPs three days to scrutinise plans we want to crack on and if we can't crack on regrettably it does seem that a general election is the only way to sort this out so yeah I think general election is going to be the most likely there's talks of a flexed extension there's talks of an extension now to to January the 31st which Boris Johnson has come out and said if that is the extension date then he is going to push for the general election and all of these things considered well let's have a quick look at the the charts at where we're currently trading on the bigger picture of course from the 122 120 low I should say we're we're still up quite nicely and this is of course of an unwind of the no deal so we're still seven and a half percent eight percent up from that low which really is just kind of the unwind of the whole move that we saw in May which was the increased chance of no deal Europe do not want no deal Parliament are not going to vote through no deal October the 31st has has been pretty much the whole time been off the the table terms of when we're leaving so we're kind of back to square one in terms of that we're not looking at no deal now a general election it would be a tricky one and let me know in the in the chat guys and trade in live and obviously YouTube later what you think about a medium term move on a general election whether it be pound beneficial or not of course there's still going to be some concerns about a Corpin led government if that was to be the case of course but would this then increase the chance of a deal getting put through and actually this is then pound positive and we're suddenly then looking towards 133 134 it'd be interesting to see what you will think the extension to January 31st again this is taking the the idea of no deal of the table giving more time to to get through a deal and if we take ourselves back to before the summer when they granted the extension to to halloween of course you know the comments out where there will not be another extension we all know it's all a case of just words at the time and even if this extension come January 31st do we really think there's going to be some sort of deal agreed by then unlikely I think Boris realises that and the only way that this could develop into reaching a deal sooner rather than never would be with that general election so there's good article from the BBC but this is probably back in October now just about how we can go about getting the the general election how it could be called and see the the first way do at least two thirds of MPs approve of a of an early general election if that's the case then 28th of October is is talked about and of course that is the first day 23rd of October as law requires 25 days between an election being called in parliament and polling day itself so that could be one way if two thirds of MPs approve on that as well and obviously just to note of course today and tomorrow was expected when MPs have been due to debate bill but will now return to discussing the contents of the Queen's speech following defeat in parliament yesterday which will put forward the government's domestic agenda for the new session of parliament so another way they could to call a general election of course they don't get those two thirds it may try to get round the requirement altogether it could do so by introducing a very short law that calls for an election and adds notwithstanding the fixed term parliament's act so if that is passed through the election it could be the fifth or twelfth of December so the 28th of November date would be if we get the two thirds if they don't get the two first that is still ways and I'll just put this into the chat room now of how we could get that general election yes you're going to have the uncertainty when it is called you know you're going to have Labour are they even going to allow that to happen we've had comments that have come through this morning from Richard Bergen of Labour who confirms Labour will back a general election if EU agrees an extension beyond October 31st however then we've just had some comments from an ITV source saying that they that the majority of Labour do not agree with Robert Richard Bergen so it's going to be comments like this it's going to be the uncertainty our Labour going to vote if it comes through what their policy going to be is there going to be a second referendum on the table the customs union so that uncertainty fine will weigh in my opinion on the pound short term but only be a better opportunity to buy as I do feel Conservatives will have enough to get this deal or get the the majority in parliament therefore get a deal through and that for me then takes us in the pound at least at least up to 134 so for me over the course of the next month or so I do see a pound being higher than where it is now I have to say so back to that arc also we at the government calls election through a law to get around the two thirds of vote requirement and or Labour could call emotion of no confidence I don't really see that happening or the government could call emotion of no confidence in itself as well so that will be all up for debate and surely it could be the only way really we get anything through an extension or a flex extension which has been talked about while I do feel short term is going to be short the pound along the pound sorry a good opportunity to to get in it's just going to be more uncertainty no deal being reached and I feel the general election is the only way forward here but anyway I'd be interested to see what what you guys think there as well Mr Buckland who I mentioned saying that the general election was the the way to to go through he said no deal was still a real possibility I have to say I disagree on that if the EU just chose to not extend the deadline past the 31st of October I don't think that's the case the the EU don't want it I don't think Boris really wants it either so no deal has been taken off the card so that whole may move down to the 120 low on no deal happening or increased chance of it has been reversed unless we were to get some seriously hawkish rhetoric regarding that for me that's that's put to put to the sword for now Katya Adler obviously a good source to follow in regards to Brexit along with Laura Coonsburg has been speaking overnight and claiming that their EU circles said she had spoken to were tempted to grant the extension to 31st of January laid out in the so-called Ben Act the law aimed at preventing no deal of course however BBC Brussels reporter Adam Fleming said their EU source has indicated the block was also considering a flex extension an extension with a maximum end date with the flexibility for the UK to leave early if a deal was ratified sooner so initially of that I'd see that as a positive but as with the free to go back to that as with the maximum end date we've already had a couple of those and it doesn't really work too well so positive initially and then as we get closer to that maximum end date the uncertainty surrounding it the chance of no deal perhaps coming back into to the minds of no deal happening itself that could be then a negative down the line but certainly short term and see that would be as a as a positive if an election was to be triggered this week as mentioned that would be 28th of November that that would come in if we have a look elsewhere from last night what the reaction of the pound had on markets not just the pound related the euro on the left hand side here you can see also came lower stocks overnight literally as the vote took place drifted lower as well so if we take ourselves back to last week where the the talk of a deal happening I think it would have been Wednesday last week let's have a look Tuesday last week where the talk of a deal happening stocks loved it as well not just in Europe but the US as well so this risk at a time being taken off the table now that uncertainty is back in stocks you can see came under pressure as well gold this morning has pushed higher obviously the inverse of that risk off in the markets and we're now back to that 1493 92 level however worth keeping an eye on gold here as we are just getting squeezed from both directions so worth just having these marks up for a potential move to come later on and the bigger one I usually would expect considering the last few days where it has been squeezed in also yesterday worth noting we had some comments out of of OPEC as well so you can see oil and it's going to put this into 15 minute chart you can see where these comments came through yesterday from OPEC that there was rumours that they were going to do an extension or increase extension cuts in December and of course this helped well supply cuts next month yes so November this helped oil push higher however we have just dipped perhaps a bit from those highs on a bit of risk off in the market the bund pushing on late last night tea notes as well also doing that so really this week or the rest of this week which was going to be focused on for the pound anyway about the the next sort of two days of debates is going to be a case of what is the the EU's ploy are they going to grant an extension is that going to be a fixed date or is it going to be you know a case where they can leave before if they were to reach a deal or are the UK upon hearing maybe a January 31 extension are they actually going to call or try motion a general election itself either way medium term I see it as a pound positive the only negatives are going to be the uncertainty initially of a general election or if the if or if you were not to grant an extension if that was the case if they were not to grant an extension I honestly don't think Boris Johnson would would leave on the 31st of October with no deal and you know therefore I think if that was to happen today we'd already be down towards 124 considering we're up at 129 so big intraday move absolutely that was to happen considering there's only well eight days until Halloween also worth having a look at the the calendar for for today just to reiterate that it's going to be relatively quiet one as well Monday Tuesday dead days in the market has to be said and now on the calendar front the same expected we'll go through the the api readings ahead of the DOE later on as well but though are really the main thing here that's going to move price from a scheduled point of view and that's at 330 no real speakers yes we've got some earnings out as well bowing Microsoft expected eBay caterpillar so worth keeping an eye on those as they come out from from markets also quick look over the the betting odds of a general election so if we have a look at the the British politics betting odds here Jeremy Corbyn nine to four to be the next prime minister I would say that's not high enough personally month of next general election so December here is five to six I think to be honest and you know I am a betting man November we talked about November the 28th would be the earliest the general election could happen now that would of course mean that we're it would get motioned pretty much this week in the coming days but 20 to one for that shows how markets betting markets aren't really expecting that to happen as of yet however December is odds on so that's when we would be perhaps looking for for that to happen as well back to Brexit if we have a look here the UK to leave the EU by the 31st of October and of course that now would be pretty much without a deal looking at 16 to one so I think that's fair odds considering that it's very unlikely to be to happen a second EU referendum you're looking at about 20 to one before 2020 so again quite unlikely for that to to be the case as well so quick look over at the markets technically how we're looking ahead of the day if we start off with the pound so I mentioned I like the idea of there being an opportunity to to go long so the way I'll be looking at it is obviously you've got the highs of the day from yesterday evening I should say the yesterday evening high I've also got the lows in the mix around there so 129 25 just before the pivot which then of course comes up with a couple of lows as well if we were to get a break above that just bringing the text line here something like this to come in to get that push through from a technical perspective of course the idea of when this extension is going to happen general election chat is going to influence markets but that could be a way that I would be looking at it of course to the downside if we were to have any further negative sentiment in in the market you can see we're starting to trend higher so a break of that from those lows as well could be a half decent opportunity to target of course the lows from there the low that we made this morning pretty much bang on the low from the 18th as well so again an opportunity to get short should we break that low I think very much it would be a case of just waiting and seeing what how this market reacts really yes it is of course a big intraday move from 130 24 down to 28 64 but I can easily see over the coming days a full reversal of that yes 1 2 3 4 5 6 tests up at that high so you've got to imagine as well a break above there could see a bit of a relief rally in with the euro obviously worth noting tomorrow you've got the ECB meeting last draggy meeting so I'm not expecting too much in the way of fireworks from this market today and really markets in general it has to be said other than the pound pivots are pretty key area original low from yesterday also a closing high from last night as well up towards the highs from last week trending lower got a solid base like with the pound of that low from the 18th so worth keeping an eye on that how we get squeezed in and then the possible push lower just on the brexit uncertainty maybe the opportunity there to wait for that break or above the pivot to target towards that trend line either way I'm expecting a relatively quiet one S&P you can see here the pivot like with the euro and the pound a pretty important level an area of support that we had broken through so we're keeping a watch on that like with those lows as well probably worth waiting until the the second part of the day the US cash open to really come in and wait for the earnings obviously Caterpillar we know can move the down and be a good bell wherever going forward Microsoft Boeing and eBay PayPal all ones that will in their own right have an influence on stock so some interesting earnings you've got 20% remember of the S&P coming out and giving earnings this week so while actually earnings have been slightly more positive you've also got the the troublesome geopolitical risks the brexit scenario trade talks obviously while we had some positive chat recently about November talks the brexit situation really the main driver here going forward oil we'll mention we'll go run through as we come closer to to 330 obviously that high from yesterday slightly broken through the the the high from the 18th but obviously a fail break of that and remains a pretty key area of interest 54 68 and give or take a few ticks it means bring in this rectangle to show why you can see those break that breakdown area from the 27th to the 1st highs from the 15th 16th and then of course recently there as well so if we can get back above there it'll be pretty significant and be a bit of a relief for the oil market of course with these cuts proposed for next month you can see that happening alternatively be looking to see if we can break you know what has been quite a choppy trend or something like this so for oil like with gold it'd be a case for me certainly medium term anyway for a clearer direction to wait for confirmed break above either here or back below that trend line as well so same as gold as mentioned just getting squeezed in perhaps waiting for you know the better opportunity to be above here or below there as well just going back to that calendar just to wrap it up expecting a relatively quiet session to to be honest just eyes out on or ears out should we say on on the brexit situation of is there going to be the January 31st is it going to be a flex extension and then general election chat as well any questions as usual please do let us know but I hope you will have a good trading day ahead