 Jumping over. Let's see where we are So I was looking for I was trying to look for the median analyst estimate what we're looking for this will pop up Let's see if the top live is up. I believe the top live starts 10 minutes ahead of time. Yeah, so it's gonna pop up there at 10 20 We'll get that we get Occidental getting in the middle of a Chevron in a dark. Oh, yeah So you had Chevron. I believe it was 33 billion dollars. That's just going off memory but I believe it was 33 billion and you have a 38 billion dollar counter offer for Anadarko to disrupt the agreed Chevron deal now. I I believe this was like 75% stock 25% cash And I remember when you reported that before because there's a huge Breakup fee of the okay, okay You know if they if they if there's a break up fee on this because I forget what the number was There's a big number man. Okay, and yeah, so this is so there was and I'm not sure so hollab Who is hollab here? Let's see a CFO. Maybe one of them They pushed the offer from 25% cash Well, we'll dig into this but they seems like this might not be the end of that story as in I imagine the Chevron's gonna Have a response. We'll see what it is Let's see. So our reminder that a bid valued at $76 a share would exceed in a dark 52-week high of 70 But the company was trading above 110 in 2014, but man 2014 that's what oil prices were through the moon. Yeah 2014 is a long way from where we're but we're almost at $67 oil, which is pretty remarkable Okay, so let's jump over we'll take a look All right, so crude oil there we are this morning We're looking at the June contract trading at $66 and 19 cents. So man quite a day yesterday, too I mean, I think we had oil at six-month highs S&P record close. Yeah, they've NASDAQ record close as well and the X100 big time. Oh for sure Russell, I don't know if you saw yesterday quite a rocket ship the Russell I mean check out that run yesterday the Russell you go from 15 62 up to 15 90 Yeah, that's it was almost 2% was like 1.7% on the day Pretty remarkable, but jumping back. So here's oil 66 16. Let's see what we got going on in here You know, it's gonna happen. I had this up early. Yeah, so I'm gonna have to refresh this real quick to get So I had this up early. It doesn't have the noon. Thank you Yeah, we got Thank you This is just we reformatted the whole hard drive. So we got some monitors in here We're on Windows 10 rocking and rolling now you come back. Everything's new man. Yeah, right Yeah new computer firing on all cylinders man Okay, close that bad boy pull up here. Okay. We're back commodities call spreads. We're in crude oil So let's start off with the 11 amps. We're looking at the June contract. We're trading at 66 17 We have the opportunity for exposure from 66 25 pretty close, right only talking about eight pennies This would be your bullish spread here. So right now you're out of the money on this one, right? Because the bullish spread starts to gain value at 66 25 you're trading at 66 17 You're gonna be paying just premium. So you're paying about 12 bucks to the 11 a.m. And getting 66 on your bearish side 66 now this one is gonna have about eight pennies of intrinsic value and there's your difference by eight pennies So you're looking at 32 not bad. No, it's not not bad at all for the 11 ams. Yeah Now jump into the noons We're gonna have the identical prices. So that's always nice that you get to just basically Figure out how much they're charging you for that extra hour, right? So here's our bullish spread The 11 a.m. Is taking 66 32 by 66 35 and look how close it is man They're only charging you basically two pennies now. It almost seems like I want to make sure the ea is coming out These seem very cheap, right? They really do and this is where you want to get used to what you're doing We had the Easter holiday. I don't think that plays into Monday I just want to be sure because this seems very affordable right for the numbers coming down But we know that we just put in that estimate. So, you know, it's coming off. You're right. Exactly. There we go Perfect. So we're getting the numbers at 10 30 66 25 we're about 11 cents out of the money I mean look at this even even if you're just making a directional trade, right? so the market saying that the move was done over the weekend when they Put the you know sanctions on what may fit. Yeah, they're just pricing very little volatility premium into this market there's your noon on the bearer side and so you're looking at $30 Yeah, $34. I mean that's only 34 pennies, right? And let's just see where the dailies line up not a bad trade if you're looking for some movement to the dailies $66 let's see if these jump in too So $66 you can gain exposure. So the 11th in the noons We were gonna have a little bit of intrinsic value to the bearish side, right? Because we started 66 25 the contracts only 10 pennies away. Well, guess what if you want some bullish Well, here's your opportunity and then now you have these 66 So you got about 15 cents of intrinsic value to the bullish side And let's see where So you're looking at 45 Yeah, 45 47 cents from 230 extra up until 230 and you'd have five bucks of exposure and just Let's see if this top-live is I think it is usually they give it to us about 10 minutes ahead of time There it is Let's see if they're saying what we're looking for so what to watch for it Let's back it up because they have three points here US refiners are taking longer than historically to come back from an end To winter maintenance season that's been a current theme man pulling that up that maintenance deal two weeks ago Crude oil intake ran at the lowest level since 2015 with just 16 million barrels a day refined compared to nearly 17 Million barrels a day at the same time in the previous two years It's nonetheless a question of when rather than if so they'll get there, right? Yeah, it's just when's it gonna happen? gas inventories declined for nine consecutive weeks dropping to the lowest level for this time of the year since 2015 with demand relatively healthy refineries taking longer than normal to returns there with winter Maintenance, excuse me to return from their winter maintenance Traders are starting to worry that the US may enter a high demand driving season with low gas inventories So they they can't turn the oil into gas, right? So you got low gas inventories, right refineries aren't Keeping up with the amount of gas they need refined and as a result you're 30 if is the beginning of the driving season Yeah, well really awesome Memorial Day May 27th. Yeah, so that's May 24th would probably be that right With domestic oil production surging crude oil gross imports have fallen in 2019 to unusually low levels in February. They dropped a 5.9 barrel million barrels a day lowest level since 1996 domestic oil production, okay. Yeah, so So excuse me domestic oil production surging but gross imports. Yeah, so we're making so much oil We're not important, right? Right two weeks ago. They also floated. Yeah Let's see if they got what what that expectation number was gonna be All right. Yeah, what was it? I'm not sure they haven't done it Six point eight arise. Okay. Yeah Yeah, I think they're looking for an increase of about a million barrels We saw at the top I believe there, but nonetheless, we'll find out three minutes Stay right there folks. Tommy and I gonna be coming right back. We have the Dow industrials right now Nine and that is except one s&p's the flat come right back Welcome back folks. I dows up 14 as ex flat s&p's the down one and We get oil numbers out here seems like when we put in that whisper number man We should always go high as in surpluses, but guess what man? That doesn't mean that the prices are gonna come down. We've seen it. We've had yeah gas inventories fell Yeah, so crude oil inventories headline number rising five point four eight million barrels The estimate was about an increase of a million barrels Gas inventories falling two point one three million barrels jumping back to the charts Close these bad boys down all our order screens where we trading at we're down a bit Which is what you'd expect? So seven currently in the contract look at that volatility we're getting so we have more supply right more supply People are gonna pay cheaper amounts because there's more supply in the market You should get lower prices on a surprise like that as we've seen consistently though no heavy reaction on the get-go and We've seen misses it seems like many times that they're to the upside and still we're dealing with Six-month highs in oil right so just be aware I think I was doing the program with Basil last week on Wednesday and we were talking about oil and We had said the same exact thing and I said, you know I would be very cautious to be bearish because when you're playing the volatility number right if you're Bearish you're looking for this type of a reaction right a big miss and you don't get the move So what are you really trading for if you're bearish right on volatility if you get a surprise build right and the market doesn't go down Right, and that's what we had the discussion and so far. It's been the same exact thing right now We're five pennies below where we're trading that and we have plenty of oil. Yeah, right? And let's just jump back and see what world else we're saying That's not it. This is gonna be it So still no increase in gasoline stockpiles Nationwide inventories as we just mentioned now this makes ten straight weeks of declines And I'm gonna guess that we'll see something about the refineries in here as well So bigger than expected build 5.48 million barrels, but a pretty muted response so far and as we always say takes a little time right takes a little time but pretty muted response, yeah, the the Still not the stories the refineries gonna plenty of oil they they just it's still the change over they just can't do Yeah, they just can't keep up basically with with the amount of gas So so there's the headline number crude rising about 5.5 million barrels media that's median estimate was an increase about one Gas pretty much in line. It's just that they knew it was gonna happen pretty much that they're you know declining as they can't keep up in Refined gasoline refined crude into gasoline Distalates a decline of six hundred and sixty estimate was declined to nine hundred pretty close cushion crude up four hundred and sixty thousand barrels Pad three crude up one point seven million barrels refinery utilization Plus two point four estimate was plus point eight So maybe maybe they're utilizing what they have there a little bit more than they were expecting refinery crude in points inputs up five hundred and five thousand barrels per day crude imports up 1.1 million I wonder how that plays into what we're just talking about right with that that crude that we're importing very small amounts So as you as you'd expect gas futures liking that draw pairing some of the days earlier lashes And so they're getting a bit of a spike looks like Two ten to two eleven and a half. I guess right. Yeah, I guess. What are we looking at wholesale gasoline? I was like, yeah, what time are they looking at those? Yeah, this is April 24th And we're seeing like a 3 p.m. Time slot on this I don't know what the I don't know. I don't know who's posting this chart and what time zone they're in but they're not in Eastern Eastern time zone But nonetheless pretty interesting. We'll check back one time. Yeah, sitting right there man That's got to be so frustrating if you were just treating this every week, man You're saying I don't know this is gonna be the week There's gonna be a big build and oil is gonna pull back Yeah, and you get a big build and you pull up the chart. It goes up and it goes up It goes up. It goes up exactly Welcome back folks. So let's go look at those oil numbers again. Yeah, as I as I let out a little bit of an expression We pull up the chart The first move is not always the move and guess what man if you were bearers today, you're getting paid So we're trading at 66 15 66 10 we did get the surprise build you should see lower prices and it took a few minutes So the the slide begins at 10 35 maybe five minutes it took We were up at 66 38 and we're now a solid 50 cents below that level, right? No, 60 cents below that level train at 66 76 excuse 65 76 So prices dropping a bit. We're at 66 40 now approaching almost 70 cents from that level Yeah, so we'll see but a little bit of negative action as you should expect on that type of move and We go take a look at the market itself. So C. L Look at the CLM we're on But one more. Thank you CL yeah, okay, so So it's gonna be a little bit delayed. Yeah, I swear at 65 92 where the contract's about 20 to 30 cents below where it's priced here Yeah, I'm still over these highs and that was the day that with I guess it's may May 5th April what no May 5th the sanctions go on I believe I'm okay. Okay. Okay May 2nd, I believe a second. Yeah. All right. So for the waivers. That's just right. Are you talking about? Yeah, yeah, yeah, but that was the big reaction when the news came out Which I believe was Monday this week just two days ago. Yeah, right? Yeah, and market wise bottom line is that you get the Nasdaq that highs no doubt, you know, so Hey S&P's pretty close as well man. Yeah big time the market stay right there folks We get TD Ameritrade finger swim coming up next a man Basil Chapman Steve Rhodes Dave White be back this afternoon Thanks, pal. Thank you back. Good job. Great to have you back. Thanks to the great job. Hey, definitely. You got it I'll get them folks