 Hello everyone. Welcome to another international relations capsule for the Shankar AIS Academy. Today we will discuss the state of India-U.S relations as of now. This is basically because after the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, there have been some difference of opinion between India and the United States. This is a very low-key issue in the sense that the United States is not particularly happy that India abstained on the resolution of the Security Council. In other words, India had declined to condemn Russia for invading Ukraine. But this was not unexpected because India had good relations with Russia. And in our development of relations with the United States, this was not a factor, even during the Cold War. India's relations with Soviet Union was criticized by the United States because it is part of, we appeared to be on the side of the Soviet Union at that time. Even though substantially we were not the Soviet Union, we had interests, we had businesses, we had a lot of support from the Soviet Union. But basically we're not inclined towards communism or socialism or anything like that. But still the entire Cold War, we had a rather uneasy relationship. But we had cooperation with the United States and the U.S. never pointed out that our relationship with Soviet Union stood in the way of developing good relations with the United States. Their issues were more like problems relating to India's nuclear policy, human rights situation, etc. But we were clearly not on the side of the United States. And right from the beginning, the United States had taken the position that if we are not with us, you are against us. And therefore our non-alignment and non-aligned foreign policy were considered to be inimical to the interests of the United States. Though they took some interest in non-aligned movement and policies, etc. And they were grateful that we are not entirely in the Soviet camp. But at the same time they expressed dissatisfaction over the years over India's foreign policy. Because when the end of the Cold War, it had changed really substantially. And we have had a different relationship since the Gulf War, that is after the end of the Cold War. But if you look at our relations with the United States from 1960 to today, people refer to it as a roller coaster relationship. Because you understand what a roller coaster does. It goes up slowly, gradually. And when it reaches the top, it falls down much below the original level and reaches the rock bottom. And then again it slowly rises and goes up to a certain level and then falls again. That is a roller coaster ride. And those who have been on a roller coaster knows exactly what it means. And that has been the situation with the US relations. We can identify years when the roller coaster started moving up slowly, reaching a culmination point and then fast falling down because of some development or the other. It can be easily identified. I will not go into those details but I will tell you some of the points at which the roller coaster kept falling and then started going up again. Of course the point of unity between the United States and India kind of cooperation was based on the fact that India is the biggest democracy while the United States is the oldest democracy. And two democracies had a kind of affinity towards each other. But at that time it was called in the early years, it was called estranged democracies. Democracies but not working together in an estranged manner they worked. And later period came that we started engaging with each other and then we were called the engaged democracies. And the third step is considered to be embracing democracies. That means alliances, close relationships etc. We never reached that, we are still not embracing democracies but democracies which work together. And the latest trend just before the Ukraine war was we were moving more and more towards the United States, the formation of the Quad, President Trump supported the time of the Ladakh war etc. This whole period can be seen like that. So first of all the period between after the Cold War and after the Cold War in 1997 President Clinton said for the first time that we need to see what is wrong in India, US relations and we must study it. So we appointed a group and the study came out saying that several things in India and the United States as two democratic nations could do. And therefore he started off consultation and even announced that he will visit India in 1998 when Mr. Gujral was prime minister. But early 1998 Mr. Gujral lost his prime minister and he was a caretaker prime minister and the president decided not to come at that time and he said he will come after the elections. But after the elections we became to power and soon after that we had our nuclear tests. So the roller coaster just slowly going up suddenly fell down and we reached a rock bottom and the worst kind of relationship we had between 1998 and 2000. But during that period we started what are called the Jaswant Singh Strock Talbot Crocs which lasted for two years talking about the various issues particularly the nuclear issue on which the Americans had great anxieties about us. But at the end of 1999 there was some understanding between India and the US. Basically that India's nuclear capability did not pose a threat to the United States because initially they thought this India's nuclear capacity might harm even the United States. They said so. They said India could bomb Europe or United States itself. But all those were removed. We clarified our position and we said it was India deterrent etc. And it was bomb satisfactory to them and President Clinton came to India in 2000 and the watch guy went to Washington in 2000 itself. And that reached another high point. The roller coaster was up again. And other things were going well except for the question of what India's future would be with the NPT. They would have liked us to sign the NPT or the CTBT. We did not do either of them. So that was an issue which had remained. But by the before President Clinton went to India some clarifications were available but they were not fully satisfied with it. So in 2000 everybody agreed that India and the United States have opened a new chapter and slowly we were working on various issues. But the nuclear issue remained unresolved. And then surprisingly in 2005 came the understanding between President Bush and Prime Minister Mohan Singh that there could be a nuclear deal. 2005 it was announced. And India was recognized as some kind of responsible nuclear power. But we could not be called a nuclear weapon state. But we were a non-nuclear weapon state but technically advanced and responsible state. We got some kind of a status like that. And then in 2008 we signed the nuclear deal with the United States. That was another high point. And there was so much of enthusiasm for India and the United States to come together. We are planning to have more nuclear reactors. India could buy and sell nuclear material. So virtually there were no other problems left in the India-US relations. Then the question of implementation of the nuclear deal came up. And India passed a nuclear liability act which was not acceptable to the United States. And therefore the nuclear trade which was envisaged in the nuclear deal did not come about. So there was again a love after 2005-2008. And during the presidency of Barack Obama he came to India in 2010. Just before his second election contest. And by then this nuclear deal implementation there were some difficulties on the part of India because of the nuclear liability law. And so he was not particularly happy with his visit. And there were also other problems. You might remember that an Indian diplomat was detained and insulted and so on. So there was that period after 2010-2014. There was again another kind of a depression in the relationship. But then when Mr Modi became Prime Minister he went all out to work out a relationship with the United States. And he visited in 2015 Barack Obama came to India. And our relationship again reached the highest level in 2016. When Mr Modi made the second visit to the United States. And he declared in the US Congress that this is a new relationship. It's a new symphony he called it. The orchestra is the same but the symphony is going to be played. It's a new one. In every area we are agreed and there is no problem. It was a very, very happy. Probably the highest level of relationship India had with the US was in 2016. But lo and behold the Democrats lost the election and the Trump came. Then there was a lot of uncertainty initially at least. Mr. Trump had a different worldview. So he didn't do anything against India. He was not willing to do anything for India either. But Mr. Modi cultivated him also very, very intensely. And in fact they became best of friends. And in spite of the fact that 2017 there was a depression. But by the time the second election contest came, the incident in Ladakh happened. And President Trump stood by us. It was very forthright. Meanwhile the Quad was formed. And again the relationship came back to normalcy. And so that was the situation under President Trump. And you know the famous statement that Prime Minister made about Agulay Sarkar will be Trump Sarkar. And then he came to India and big celebration and so on. But as it happened he lost the elections. And then there was a complete chaos and confusion. And President Biden could not do anything in the initial one year. And he's still striving to get into his position. He never had a honeymoon with the people because his election was challenged. Since Rosa Ross everywhere. And so he didn't give much attention to India at that time because he was very preoccupied with China and Russia. And even today he has not really formulated his policy on Russia and China. So in that situation India did not get much attention. But the election of Indian origin person as vice president. And later some kind of cooperation etc came and it was moving towards normalcy. And also on Russia and China a policy was evolving. That is when the war broke out in the brain. So the United States though they're not going to war with Russia on this account. They are virtually at war because it's a sanctions war as we have been discussing. And so the situation is one of confrontation between Russia and the United States. So the war is between Russia and Ukraine but actually the conflict is between NATO on the one side. With the United States at its head and India somewhat neutral. So this was not much appreciated by President Biden because Afghanistan happened in between where we stood with the United States. But in the case of Ukraine we found ourselves in a different situation. So initially President Biden was saying that the Indians we are talking but they are a bit shaky. But I hope they'll come around etc etc that was the impression that he gave. But as more and more votes took place and the trade sanctions were imposed. And India appeared not to join that sanctions war. And we started buying Russian oil and in a certain sense countered. We are planning to be thinking in terms of a currency transaction other than the dollar to buy and sell oil and also buy other goods between India and Russia. Like we had a rupee ruble in the old days of the Soviet Union. So the United States was not happy, still not happy about this development. And then there are a series of statements when there were so many visits to India by very important personalities. And among them were also US senior officials. And they all expressed certain concern about India's attitude which they did not think was very effective. So it is in this context that two things happened just yesterday. One was the virtual summit between Prime Minister Modi and President Biden. In which they had a very hard to hard conversation, at least the first part we heard publicly. And then what went on there, we have some descriptions of what really happened. Of course the President Biden expressed hope that India's position will evolve and India will not do anything which would help Russians to support Russia's work. And they appreciated the fact that India in fact condemned the attack on Mujah where the American Russians were guilty of massacring on a lot of Ukrainians. So that was probably a message that we gave that we are not entirely in favor of Russia. And in our statements we were criticizing Russia for violating the sovereignty of Ukraine. But because of this old habit that the United States has, they are not very particular when not particularly pleased when you have an opinion which is different from yours. And they would like you to come around. And this was clarified by several others. They expressed their opinion that they would have been happier if India was with the US rather than with Russia. So about saying that we are not with Russia did not satisfy them. And one of the reasons for that was that India is no more just a friend. We have a strategic partnership in terms of the Quad. And out of the four countries in the Quad it was only India which voted differently from the others in the case of Ukraine, Russia, Ukraine. And we abstained on several relations, several solutions. Even the last one, you know, suspending Russia from the New Council for Human Rights. Even there we abstained. But of course we criticized all that Russia's atrocities in Ukraine and so on. So but the message that we got the summit between President Biden and Prime Minister Modi. And later the two plus two meeting. You know, there is a relation of meeting is the fourth round where the foreign ministers of both sides and defence ministers of both sides meet together. It has a certain meaning because some kind of a defence cooperation is involved in that. So in fact, President Biden when he started his conversation with the Prime Minister Modi spoke first about defence cooperation. Because he put that very bruntly and he said we are expanding cooperation in defence because of the general impression that India is dependent on Russia, which is true. But still Russia supplies a lot of material to us and it's considered some kind of a legacy. And the Americans are not opposing that even in the case of S 400 and also in the case of Putin and so on. They were not making a fuss about it. They allowed these things to be kind of continuing cooperation between the old Soviet Union and India. And it was beneficial to India and therefore they were not very critical of it. But now in the change situation, they have started digging us on to do more things. When the senior people came to India, someone spoke about the so-called NAMG77 relationship to Russia. Because Russia is not in NAMG77. But they are calling it some kind of anti-US grouping or some kind, notionally non-aligned movement and G77. And Russia seems to have similar positions. China is a member of NAMG77 because these are all developing countries' concerns. And so then the Americans realised, so they wanted us to go slow on that. And particularly considering that the US is now engaged in supporting India in developing a defence capability. They are supplying machinery equipment. And they hinted, the President said that we are also ready to give you more things. And the hint was, or the suggestion was that if you separate yourself from Russia or if you don't get defence equipment from Russia, we are here to help you. So that kind of a message went out. But it came out very clearly repeatedly that as long as India's relations with Russia are not favourable to the United States, it might somehow introduce a new element in the US relations. Russia becomes some kind of a benchmark. How you behave with Russia will determine your relationship with the US. This is a new element, which had not happened even in the Cold War era. So that's why today I have written an article called The Brain War. It's called US introduces Russia benchmarks in doing the other relations. So they are saying that it depends on what you think about defence, what you think about Ukraine, what you think about NATO. All these factors will be taken into account in establishing the relationship with Russia. And the oil trade issue is a substantial one, but even like our external affairs minister said the other day, that the amount of oil that we buy from Russia is much less than what Western Europe buys in one afternoon. One month we have purchased oil from Russia is less than what West European countries are buying one afternoon, he said. In other words, which is a very negligible purchase of oil while the United States and the European Union, Western Europe, which are supposedly at sanctions war against Russia are actually buying oil from Russia. So that was the answer that we gave. So in other words, we have not even any commitment to scale down this. And also we are trying to have some kind of a rupee Google arrangement by which we can have trade without the involvement of the dollar currency. So that also might harm the sanctions. So the Americans are most concerned about actions by India, which seem to support Russia against the sanctions imposed by United States and NATO countries. So this is what the new message came and nowhere else because we don't know exactly what happened, but from the so-called readouts on both sides as to what happened. This is repeatedly comes out very clearly that something needs to be done by India in order to improve relations with the United States. But so far we have not seen any indication that India has in any way surrendered our position. They seem to have an end delegation, Prime Minister himself seems to have remained steady on this policy of what we need is not sanctions, what we need is not war, what we need is to hold negotiations between the two countries that is Russia and Ukraine, and thus resolve it. So Prime Minister repeatedly told them that our interest is to get Putin and Zelensky to speak to each other. Which would certainly make it necessary, it will make possible for and there is no other way, sanctions or war are not a solution. So that is where we have stood, but at the same time we have given indication that we do not approve of what Russia has done. So but this small element of coercion is visible in all areas. For example, Deputy National Security Advisor, when he came here he hinted that there could be sanctions against India if India did not support sanctions against Russia. And he did not mention Katsa, but he hinted that there is such a thing as Katsa also and they have not ruled out sanctions on account of the S-400. So but this was again immediately countered by the White House itself by saying that it was not a threat, it was only a wish and this wish is for the sake of India itself and not for the sake of the United States. So the message is loud and clear which came out yesterday was that yes they are not, most unhappy that India has not voted in favour of all those resolutions, but that they feel that as a member of the Quad, India has certain responsibilities towards the United States. So we are not simply friends, we have a relationship which is expected of each other to have similar points of view on international relations. And this is yet to be obtained and that will remain in the minds of the Americans that India is not fully with them. But we are very clear that what we are doing is right and we are hoping that as the war finishes and the sanctions are withdrawn, our relationship will go back to normal times. But it is true that we are not at the highest level, it was at the highest level at the time towards the end of President Trump's presidency because of the China fact. Biden has not made up his mind on the China factor yet whether he will come to our help if there was any difficulty on the border. And he has an ambivalent approach to China itself because he talks about cooperation, he talks about competition, he talks about rivalry. But he does not talk about a new Cold War which is really being shaped. Now the Cold War with Russia and China on one hand and the United States on the other is what we are seeing. Not the other Cold War what we had thought that there will be US and China and Russia will be in the middle. And some middle states like India or France, Germany as a tribe will be able to work together on another front. But now things are changed, China-Russia relations have improved. And of course in general terms the situation is a little bit unstable as far as the US relations are concerned. So I just wanted to bring your attention to that because in the examinations that follow you will need to be there in mind the exact state of relations between India and the United States and which way it is likely to go. Thank you.