 Welcome traders to this week's weekly live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munley. If you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen, tick me a welcome screen if you type a Y in the chat box so I know that we are good to go here. Good stuff. Okay, so before we jump into today's presentation, first of all, we just want to check in with the risk disclaimer and make sure we're all aware that the views and opinions expressed by me today are solely mine and they are not indicative of all representative of Tick Mill UK limited or Tick Mill Europe limited. Those of you who are here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself. After I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found an exit a consulting startup which was focused on C-suite executive search for technology startups, having a front row seat, the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune sometimes quite literally overnight. I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or more appropriately day gambling. After some beginner's luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginner's luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down basically giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure financial hit. To say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was actually feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years, it was a time during which I not just my technical game in terms of developing a strategy, back testing and forward testing the strategy and underpinning it with a rigorous risk management approach, but most importantly during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I have to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and have a professional trading mindset, and you understand the true nature of trading and being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment of that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or small strings of trades. My focus on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed accounts vehicle delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. From 2010, I've also mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert for Tick Mill, exclusively providing market and trade analysis on a daily basis. I provide a daily market outlook. I also provide technical analysis, which is delivered through their social media channels. My other, I guess, passion project is as the leading trading education for a premier trading education brand called FXcareerswap.com. We offer development and funding to retail trading talent. At FXcareerswap, we don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through a structured program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. If you're interested in finding out more about FXcareerswap, the number for the trading desk in London is down here and we've got the email there. If you want to email the guys, I'm sure they will come back to you with any information that you're looking for. So let's jump into the charts. Before we jump into the charts, I just want to highlight some information I shared with the guys on the trading team this morning. This is with respect to euro dollar options because for the first time in a year now, we're actually seeing a greater demand for puts. So what are puts? Well, puts are basically downside strikes, which pay out premium if the market is going to see a decline. And so this is a significant development. Certainly the largest move we've seen since last May 2020 just post the pandemic lows in terms of the euro dollar and that's principally being driven by the Federal Reserve last night who came out as being more hawkish than the market had anticipated. And certainly now we're seeing the Fed talk about moving towards tapering their asset purchasing program, which means they're reducing liquidity in the markets. And that's driven quite a significant move. So what I want to do first of all this week is jump into the weekly charts and we'll start by looking at the dollar here. This is the dollar on a weekly timescale. You can see we've been in this descending trend channel. There is the potential now that the dollar is actually going to close above trend line resistance. So the key level we want to be watching on a closing basis tomorrow is 9150. If we can get through that 9150, if we get a close to 9150, then I think we have a range trade in play which could see us trading certainly back up to 9350 and maybe testing the yearly pivot at 9410 before seeing if the dollar downtrend is going to resume. There is the potential now that if the US really start to move towards tightening fiscal policy, that the disparity between them and the Eurozone certainly out of all the other central banks, we've seen the Bank of Canada, the Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Australia as be a little bit more hawkish. But certainly in the Eurozone we haven't seen any slight inclination really at this stage about moving towards more hawkish stance. If we look here, if we check in here with the 10-year yield, you can see that we have been consolidating after that initial move up. This initial move is what drove that dollar strength earlier in the year. We've been consolidating in a bull flag. We've got a pretty big reversal candle yesterday. If we can get through the 1.66%, then I think we're heading up for a test of 2% into the back end of the summer now. Certainly in the next major potential policy announcement coming out of the Federal Reserve is going to be the Jackson Hole meeting at the end of August. There's the chance here that because of positioning a sentiment in the market that pain trade over the summer of the next six to eight weeks could be a drift higher in terms of rates and the dollar. If we look at where the Euro sits at the moment, the Euro is sitting right on its trend line support, the move off the pandemic lows there. What we'd be looking for with the Euro would be a close through that trend line support, so let's say a breach of 1.19%. Certainly then we can start to think about a retest of the 1.17 in terms of a summer range trade really. Back down into this support at 1.17%. If we took out that area, then what we'd be thinking about would be the potential for an extension to the downside. Maybe we could even be thinking about retesting the prior descending trend line resistance as support again before making another move to the upside. So I'm going to keep those key levels in mind here in terms of on the weekly time frame, a breach of that 1.19 on a closing basis. Certainly we can think about 1.17 and maybe even 1.16 on the downside. Let's just check in. There are a bunch of charts here that I've got marked up and they all have a similar type of theme here that you'll see. We've got a lot of very contracted rising wedge patterns here that all the support zones are currently under threat. And if we start to see markets get a real sense that the Fed are going to tighten then that's going to impact asset allocation, certainly in terms of risk taking. And so in terms of the S&P 500, any type of move through 4180 would open the door to certainly retest 4059 as a downside objective. Asdaq was sitting a little bit further away from its major trend line support, but we'd be thinking about any break of 13,500 as opening a move back down to 12,900. A little bit stronger in terms of its positioning as opposed to the S&P at the moment. Dao is the potential canary in the coal mine here because the way we're set up at the moment is we could see a close this week, so tomorrow, if we close through 34,000 then that would be a technical breach of the major ascending trend line. And certainly we can think then about 33,000 or 33,000 to the downside there, monthly range support as an objective on the downside. That's sitting right up against, if I zoom out here and you can see this trend line, so we're sitting right up against the pre financial crisis as a third touch of that trend line. So any rejection from there this week in terms of bearish reversal candle would certainly set up then a test of its trend line support. So we could think about move back down to 15,000 in the DAX and see then if buyers step back in. Let's take a look at some of these commodities, copper. Again, it's a little bit more bullish and we've got scope in terms of copper to trade back down to the 4000 level before we'd be testing the trend line. And I'll show you on the daily chart where we sit in terms of copper at the moment, it's quite interesting opportunity. We'll take a look at that in a minute. Let's take a look at the loonie. So again, the loonie, if it could get a close through, needs to close really through 124 to suggest that we've got a base in play here, potential double bottom scenario at 120, 70. And then we could be thinking about a corrective move higher and certainly back up in towards 130 would be the natural target logical progression there in terms of the upside euro yen. Bearish outside reversal candle setting up here. It's got a little bit of scope down to 130, 70 before a real decision will be made on whether or not we're going to see a bearish reversal in terms of the euro yen. So that some of these other yens, we've got the cad yen here. Again, a little bit more scope in terms of cad yen, but certainly we're sitting at resistance at this 91 level. And we're getting a bearish outside reversal. We could certainly think about 8840 to the downside. And then maybe back into this ascending trend line support at the 86 level. Swiss yen, big outside reversal candle here from its trend line resistance. So if that gets taken, if we close at or below current levels, then we should be thinking about short positions, certainly targeting a retest of the ascending trend line support at 11860. I've also got these prior highs here. So that would be a logical target for this test to the downside in terms of the Swiss yen. Kiwi yen, similar story, even more bearish here because we're actually going to potentially get a close now through the ascending trend line support. And so the setup we've been looking for was if you can get that close through there, then we'd look for a three wave corrective move certainly back down into that 73 handle. Could be the test that we'd be looking for there with the Kiwi yen. Let's take a look at the Aussie yen. Similar story. It's about to take out its trend line support here. And certainly we could be thinking about a move back down into the 8050 area as a downside, initial downside target for any corrective pattern that's underway Aussie. Similar story. It's actually taken out its trend line and tried to get back and recheck it but didn't. So we've got a double top scenario here in play at the 79 handle bearish outside reversal week coming in play here. So we'll take a look at the Aussie on a daily timeframe for the downside target in terms of that one. Pound looking for technical break here of its ascending trend line support. Certainly then thinking about 138 and really you could be looking back at 135, 136 in terms of power. If we get close through this trend line should see balls then throwing in the towel in the near term. The ones of interest were sterling yen. It's got a bit more scope here. It's got an internal trend line which is sitting on right now. Let's draw that in. So if it gets a close through that trend line then I think we can think about a sterling pound, certainly back down 150 would be the logical target for that move until it's starting getting outside reversal here. So keeping an eye on that into the close. We've got nothing immediate to do there in terms of the dollar yen. So I guess you can get the picture there in terms of what. Let's take a look at the Swiss. That's another one that's been under a lot of pressure. Potential inverse head and shoulders scenario could be trading up to 94 level in terms of the Swiss. If we can get this big bullish close, want to see these candles closing out or very near their highs tomorrow to really get a sense of momentum developing. So yeah, those are some of the weekly charts. Just want to pay attention to the closes tomorrow. They're going to be important. Certainly the effects, the majors where they close out tomorrow will certainly set up the potential for some momentum to develop now during the summer here. Let's take a look on the daily time frame. So Euro, this is the only trade I've got running at the moment. What I'm looking for like I say is a closing breach of the ascending trend line support and I think we can get down into 117. The Aussie Swiss, this one I was looking at on the long side, but the pattern appears to, it was looking a lot more bullish before we came on here. Certainly want to take out the trend line resistance now, but that candle that I was watching there hasn't developed as I've anticipated. Let's run back here to the S&P, see on the daily time frame, a little bit more scope there. So 41.50s in terms of this S&P looking for higher prices, if it can hold there, you can see a little bit more clearly in terms of the futures market in terms of the S&P. So we're sitting right on the trend line support here. And if we can hold on here, there is the potential that we trade higher, but given the current pressure of the market Sunday, if we get a close through that trend line, then we can start to think about a move back down to test the 40, 20 area, 40, 50 area as support. Euro yen. So it looks like now, this evening, we should see it take out this internal trend line support. So if it does, there'll be a short opportunity in terms of the Euro yen to bring it back down into the major trend line at 130.70. So any close through 132 would certainly encourage the view of a further downside looking for 130.84 gold. Gold looks poised now after setting up in what looked like a bullish pattern. Obviously, we've seen a bit of a positioning move here now in terms of gold. And certainly I think we're going to take a look at this 17.66 area. So any pullbacks on the intraday time frames should be sold now and look for that 17.66 zone. So again, with this cad yen, what I'd be watching for now are any pullbacks certainly into the pivot there to set short positions targeting initially back down into that 88.20 area. Obviously, we're looking on the daily time frame here. So what you'd be watching for in terms of the intraday time frame, let me just pull up. Let's go to the hour lead. You can see what I'm talking about. So yeah, now what we'd look for with this cad yen would be any hold here and back into this prior support to active resistance will set up the next leg to the downside. So Euro Swiss was another one that I was watching. This one looks a little better in terms of the setup now. We're holding the trend line support here. So if this can get this candle to close green, probably something through this 90, a 109.30, then I'm going to look at a long position there in terms of the Euro Swiss. And certainly we can think about a move back into 110. And if we can get through that 110, then we'd be looking for a test of 111.50, a retest of those prior highs would be the plan there. Got sterling. So sterling now is it's through that trend line support. Any pullbacks that we get now into that 140.80 will be an opportunity on the short side. So again, you can look at this on the intraday, the hourly or the four hour time frame. And what you're looking to do there will be to sell into that prior support to now act as resistance. And certainly we can think about 138 as a target on the downside. So look at the Euro CAD. I think in the Euro Kiwi, we're getting a nice outside reversal candle here. So if we close in the Euro Kiwi at or ideally we close within these prior highs, this 170.50, then I think there's an opportunity in the Euro Kiwi to trade up into this area here. So 173.40 would be the upside objective there. So watch for the close tonight in this Euro Kiwi. Ideally we want to see it close just prior to this 170.50 level and getting that nice bullish outside reversal candle. You can see from a momentum perspective, we've broken out to the upside. So this has potential here. Certainly when we think about the monthly range resistance at 172, weekly range resistance 171.60, but really the ideal target there will be into that 173.40. And then what we could have developing is a nice inverse head and shoulder scenario for the next leg to the upside. Then we can start thinking about the yearly pivot on the upside in terms of the Euro Kiwi. This one has just taken out now. It's support here that we were watching. And now we can start to think about this testing the base here at 82.33. And if we can get through there, then we could have a more significant top in place because we've already taken out this major trend line support and we've checked back into it from below and found sellers again. So if we can get a close here through the monthly range support at 83.30, then we can start to think about 81 as a downside objective for the Aussie yen. Let's see where we are there. Now this one's rolled over again. Again, just earlier today, look bullish. This is why you've really got to pay attention to the closes in these candles and avoid the entry day noise because this looked bullish. But now we're rolling over again here. What we could see here with this Aussie CAD is another leg to test that yearly pivot. And then maybe we get a reversal from that zone. But that's one that actually starts to look bearish here. So I mean, if we close again, if we get this inside, inside rejection here and close towards the lows, but not take that 93.30 out, then there is an opportunity on the short side to play for that 92.48 as a near term downside objective. Let's see where we are at Kiwi. So again, once the Kiwi is through 69.40, then we can start to think about the quality objective. So the scope then for, certainly for the Kiwi to trade 68 and maybe then we need to think about the yearly pivot test here at 66.35. So what you're thinking is the rationale is that if the dollar index is able to hold here and trade up to its yearly pivot, then what we should see is some of these antipodeans, certainly the Aussie also has the yearly pivot open. It's quite a way to go for the yearly pivot in the Aussie, certainly given the curve volatility will be a stretch target. But what we can look at is this 74.20, which is the equality objective. So a close through the monthly support here tonight gives a potential of a quick hundred pips down to the equality objective. And who knows if the dollar really does start to take off, then again, you could start to think about the yearly pivot in some of these. So it's taken clear now the trend line, it's looking bullish. So we can think about that turning up to the 6.5 level and maybe now an extension, the 6.58. And so if we do get that move in the dollar, because the Aussie is the proxy play there, then certainly we'll see further pressure on the Aussie and the Kiwi. And the CAD to a lesser degree, more the Aussie, because the Aussie is the real proxy for the dollar you want in terms of FX pairs. So that's an update on what it is I'm looking at. I'm really paying attention mainly now to where we close on some of these weekly charts. Certainly the dollar index is the key one here. If we can get a close through this trend line resistance, close above monthly range resistance, then I really think we can start to think certainly about retesting the price at 93.40 and then maybe on to the yearly pivot at 94.10. And then obviously that's going to weigh on the euro, the sterling and the Aussie that support the Swiss. So it's really going to be important for this next phase. Certainly like I say, these next six to eight weeks as we head into the back end of the summer and the Jackson Hole event, if we're going to get this momentum to develop in the dollar, we just want to see these strong closes tomorrow. Otherwise, we could be back into low volatility back and filling here before maybe seeing something later in the summer. So it's really, really important to see where we close in terms of these weeklies on some of these majors. So that's what I'm watching. Are there any questions? Does anyone want to take a look at chart having covered? You can type it in the chat box or in the Q&A box. Okay, if there aren't any questions, guys, I'll wrap this up here and we'll reconvene sometime next week and keep an eye on those weekly closes tomorrow. Thanks very much, everyone. I hope this helps.