 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning, everyone. Basil Chapman here. This is the Tiger Technicians Hour on Friday, the 22nd of September. What we're seeing right now is really not what I wanted to see if I was anticipating some kind of a major low coming in, say, Monday or Tuesday. The day is young, and what I would say is this. Let's just do this backwards. Normally, I'd look at the VIX later, but I'll look at the VIX right now. The VIX index, and this is the volatility index based on options. Let's just look at it as a price. You don't even have to know how it's calculated. It doesn't matter. It ran up exactly the 200-period moving average yesterday. It was a very ugly day. The S&P got hammered. Look at this huge candle. Look at the way it's pulling back today. It's 16.51. It got to the 17s yesterday. The weekly chart has made a new low over the last two weeks at 12.68, just a tad under the previous lows that were made back in July and August. But what's really important is, you see this table here in the volatility index in the monthly chart? Look at this. It just goes back. Once upon a time, for the Greece crisis, nobody even remembers that anymore, $48 back in August of 2011. We've been all over the show. We actually hit $89 back in the bank crisis of October of 2008. Within this context, the majority of the price movement in the volatility index is in the 20s, and then it got raised because of COVID. The baseline was much higher. Eventually, it did things like 53, the China domestic, China US rates. Back in August of 2015, it did 53.29. We've got a pullback down to the 84 and the 856 area in 2017. It spirals up to higher yields, just tariffs, China, Saudis, everything. Back it's 50.30. That was right here, February of 2018. Pulls back again, pulls back to the tennis area, pops up to 36.20 December of 2018. There again, faired in yields. China was a big pop-up in July of 2019. It keeps coming back because this is the magnet line for the volatility index. Even if we have a major, some bad news or anything, and the volatility index screams up, and now it's making lower lows for quite some time. If it screams up into the 20s, that's a warning to say, Mark is going to be pulling back, but you can't expect a major low from this area here at 16.57. I shouldn't say you cannot. Things can happen, but the rotational correction that we've been looking at is still ongoing. With this context, what I was anticipating was there was a chance, and the reason why we still remain short to down the short, the SMH is the semiconductor ETF. The reason is that if you're looking at this context yesterday with that big green candle, we hardly ever see a candle on a Friday like that. Look, this is one big green candle here on a Friday, and that was back in August of 2018. That's a couple of weeks ago, and then the market started to pull back after that high. Now what we're looking at is within the context of this particular, just patterns, this age pattern, there is always a chance that if it's successful and either just tags the left side low, in this case the low of 12 point, I think it was 70 something. Yeah, it's 73, 12.73 back the week on the 23rd of June. So it's taken that out, but fractionally, and it's closed that same week, that's the last week, closed above it, and this week it's even higher. And that's saying to me that there is a chance that this dreaded age, which has become so far a successful age, even though it did take out the left side low, could become a cup formation. So with all those things said, I was anticipating that yesterday with that big green candle, if instead I'd said, there's a chance that we'll find some strength today. But what I would like to see, and those are two separate things completely, what I would like to see is by the end of the day, the volatility index closes up towards the high. In other words, towards yesterday's high of 17 was at 57, 1754. So somewhere in that range, we're at 1669, a lot has to happen for that to transpire. But that's still my wish. One of the reasons is it's a wish because I'm hoping that if we close ugly, Monday and Tuesday, remember there was this expression, it's really just a mantra, kind of a, wow, what do you call those things? It's just an expression that you sell on Russia's show on the Jewish holiday, the new holiday, and you buy after your kippah that's a day of fasting, which will be Monday. It's hardly ever worked. This year has actually worked quite well, but that's just unusual. But my thinking here was that if we could close really ugly, if somehow some way late this afternoon, all of a sudden the Dow instead of being up 38 points now is actually not down 38, it's got to be down 90. And then as we go into the closes down 150, and the S&P suddenly turns around instead of being up 12, it is down 18 or more, and then the news comes out of the weekend, oh, bad action, one of the worst weeks we've had, blah, blah, blah, then next week we'd be ready for at least a decent rally attempt for a couple of weeks. That's a possibility, right? I mean, some of these stocks have really been hammered, some of the really good stocks. I mean, look at Amazon. Amazon hasn't been hammered per se, but look at this weekly chart. At a peak E, having achieved the 140s, left side, right side price time match and everything, and now extending just by one pop to 145.86 last week above the 143.63 level peak D a couple of weeks ago. This is an ugly candle. And yet the 90 is not even close to turning down in the weekly chart. Yes, we've got a sell mode in the daily. And that's what I'm saying. I think we need more time to let this resolve itself. The 121-200 period exponential moving average in Amazon is an idea that I would have, even if there is a pop and a decent rally in the next week or two. I'm still thinking that's the way we'd go. Look, yes, Van Neck retail ETF, 20% is Amazon. It reaches 199 back in November of 2021 has a pretty decent rally. This is the RTH is assembled trading right now up 71 cents at 170.79. It went to the dreaded H pattern. It went right down to the 200 period exponential moving average yesterday. It just broke down. And look, here's the weekly chart. This could be an A to B equals C to D. That's the classic TFNN lightning pattern, lightning bolt pattern. So, and here's your major uptrend support level. I'm saying we cannot be too sanguine right now. We're not quite done. I'll be back in a moment. We'll go through the indices 1028. S&P is up 10. Let's just check this E mint as we go into the break. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. 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Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. I had a question about the semiconductors. Do I think it's going to pull back again? It's up $1.25. It's just intraday. A couple of people. I made it to stop on our most recent SOXS. That's three times long. Sorry, three times short. The SMH is tad too tight. And then it's screened from the 1070s up to the 12s. Some people held it. Congratulations. Took some profits yesterday at the close or this morning. And just wanted to know, where would you go back in? I'm going to suggest something. And this is only for people who have actually traded this vehicle because you really have to understand it can move so quickly and percentage-wise it could really do a job on you. Just the way I'm looking at it now. And this is just, it's not even a recommendation. I'm just giving you parameters that I'd be looking at. So the SOXS has made a low today of 1176. It is trying to climb over the 200-period moving average of 1198 in the one-minute chart. The five-minute chart is at a pretty decent pullback. This is A, let's go A, B, C, D. Pulls back and goes A, alternate count, A, B, C, D. Alternate count E slash B. And then it goes to the requisite brand new A, B, C, D. And now it's got a peak D right there in the 10-minute chart, right? So it's starting to pull back. I would just be real careful. You can see the buyers. This is what we've been seeing for weeks now. Buying comes in. Selling comes in. At the end of the day, the sellers seem to have the baton. They got the lead voice. But it's not like it's going straight down. I've been talking about this for weeks. I said this is not usual, yes, on purely statistical terms. We're in bear market territory, for me, in the daily charts. Not the weekly. The weeklies are still holding really well. Even today, they're holding not too badly. So that's why I'm saying we might be using up a tremendous amount of time, and then we just need to fulfill some part of it in the weekly charts. So with that said, what I am going to tell you to do is to don't be over-anxious on the buying the SOXS because it's three times. If you do, just have a little nibble on it. But watch it closely. I probably would say I'd prefer to be buying strength rather than weakness. The 11, right here, the 1198 200-period moving average is support. Now, if this is trying to form a ball formation off the gapping down like this, I call it a ball even though it looks like a big cup. It should not take out, and this is going to be tough. It shouldn't take out the load that was made right here at 10.07 this morning of 11.76. So it doesn't sound like much. Big deal, 11.89 to 11.76, 20 cents. Hey, it's a big deal. So what I am going to say to you is you could split a tiny position. And that means the tiny position is even split just to get a sense of what you want to do. And right here at 11.89, I'd nibble and just wait a minute, maybe by the end of the show we'd have another position. But all I'm saying is that if I can start to go to 12, that means the estimators are coming down. That's where your start to some accelerators. That's where you might add a little bit. I don't know. I'm just saying to you, it has to work. And I have to tell you something in time. It has to be right about there. Right about, let's see, 12.07. Right about 10. I'm going to say 10.45. It already has to be moving up. Time is of the essence because the longer it goes sideways with the market, trying to rally, the more you're using up both strength and weakness. And it means just meandering. All right, so let's just go back to the E-mini right now. Because that's also a good clue. Look, it made a peak B pullback sharply underneath the 200p moving. It's kind of showing some support. So that's what I'm saying. Don't overthink this. If you haven't had a really tight stop, I'd even say you could do it twice if you already want to get into position. But I wouldn't get in position, especially if by the end of the day, the estimators are actually running quite sharply. They're at 142.17. If they go to 143.10, I wouldn't be thinking at all about the short. I'd say, hey, just wait. You've had a fantastic run. Don't waste money right now. In fact, I'd even say to you, I'm inclined to step aside. As you know, from my newsletter, I said today, let's just step aside. We know what we'd like to buy. And I also know what we'd like to short. So with that said, let's move on. So I want to run these things quickly now. I want to show you something absolutely I think is fascinating. Look, we waited and waited and waited for the Dow after the sell signal or the day that we shorted on August the 1st for the nine period moving average to cross to pink. And then it finally did that right there on the 16th of August. The weekly chart has taken out the left side low. This is the pattern that I call the dreaded age. For those of you, I know more and more people are starting to use this particular technique of looking at the pattern. The patterns repeat over and over. And this is the pattern that I've been talking about forever. I mean, since I came to TFNN back in 2002, 2003. Straight line up, straight line down. In fact, this is from my CD, introducing the Chathamway methodology. And then a CD book. And now you've got a cup formation and arch formation. There's a mix between one and two and one and three. Straight line down, goes to a peak A or B, and then fails takes out the left side low. Takes out a peak A, goes to a new low. Takes out a peak A, takes it down, and the left side goes to a new low. Dreaded age, big arch formation. Within that, there's an H pattern that goes to a lowercase m. And what did we do? The left side low in the Dow was right here on the 25th at 34,029. And today we took out the left side low. That 200 p.m. moving average of 33,914. It's beginning to act like a magnet. If we go even just a little bit low, if we can go to 33,980 at any point in the next two days, that's 33,914 becomes a magnet, and you can stay there for a little while. So we're going to be watching that very closely. So that's that particular. But look at the weekly chart. 9 is still way over the 14. That's what I'm saying. It's a process. We've gone from a daily sell signal to a sell mode. By the end of the day, I might say, the weekly has gone to a sell signal. Can you get a major buy signal when you've just gone to a sell signal? Oh, absolutely. Look, it's an H pattern. You can start to form a cup formation. If there's a close at any time in September or preferably in September, but it could go into October without taking out this left side low, seriously taking out the 34,000 level, you close above, not you, but close above 33,000 and 35,070 at any point, it's going back to that left side high of 35,679. That was made back in August the 1st. I don't see it just yet. We'll be watching this closely. Look at the S&P for weekly charts. S&P, we've taken out as here as well. We've taken out the left side low, 43,33 was yesterday. 43, what did I say, 28, was it? Yeah, 43,28 yesterday. We went below this left side low. Now we've got the H pattern. This is going to become a dreaded H pattern going much lower. Well, the weekly chart, since you've got to be careful but that nine is still positive. Give the Q, Q, Q in the weekly chart. Look, time period moving there is still positive and it hasn't taken out the left side low. I'll be back. Gals of 28 S&P's of 11. 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And the reason why I'm saying that is the ideal situation for me, having done this for decades and decades and decades, for any kind of a buy signal, we've got some really good buys at the lows of the market. And all I can say is I look for certain things and I'm not in the position to say that I can see anything major other than a really decent pop-up and a lot depends, of course, look, the dollar is, I wouldn't say it's struggling, the Chathamay-Forting Act, we'll go through it again, even though it's taking a Friday, break out of this particular pattern to the upside. And it's done that so many times and this is a pattern that you can now respect and say, hey, it's worked well at some point it's going to fail. So you want to watch for failures because that's the clue to say, hey, the modus operandi has just changed, hasn't yet, but we did get in the dollar, today's high is 105.78. Well, the high that I've been talking about for months, not weeks, but months, was 105.68, that was the high of the week of the 10th of March. And I said, we just stuck in a rectangle, anyone who says, oh, the dollar's collapsing, just keep looking at the rectangle and now that it's gone up, anyone is saying, oh, the dollar's fantastic. No, look at this, the dollar is just having a corrective mode after coming down to the 200 period moving average and now it's having a fabulous balance, but this is what's impressive, is on the daily chart here on the left, 87% in the stochastic, flat, it's good, Magdy's flat and positive, the nine is way over the 14, the price is way over the nine, but it is starting an art, look, I drew this in some time ago and you can see, I don't want to make this messy, but all I'm saying is that this dash green line keeps coming up to it and gets repelled, the Chapman weave inside track repellent zone, but wait a minute, look at the weekly chart, there's a chance that we close with a little dogy candle today, after a whole week's worth of rallying, not much, but rallying nevertheless, and it's getting to the upper level of resistance in the weekly chart. So it's had a fabulous, now this pattern, this rectangle pattern, when it breaks underneath, it very often goes just above and then comes back into the pattern. Well, if that's the case, let's look at the EURUSD, the euro, that's doing the peak D turnaround, it broke the up channel, support level inside track, propellent zone, it's now repellent zone, the nine moving averages crossed negative in the weekly chart, the magnies were very weak, stochastic down at 11%, I don't have volume, that's why that blue line is straight because it's an index, it's a currency pair, look here, we've got your trough, a leg E to the downside, so that says, yeah, a leg E, you could bounce a little bit, but there aren't any signals, and look at all the resistance you've got at 1.078, the 200 period moving average, and it's at 1.066 right now. So it's got a long way to go, and you've got all those resistance, look at the USDJPY, this is the yen currency pair, dollar yen currency pair, did I type it in the wrong place? I wrote type to write on the chart again, UPS, type it in over here, USDJPY, got it, okay, and look at that, peak D goes to a peak, E, G, C, I always say, be prepared, the majority of times, 90% of the time in fact, it can go 90%, maybe 80 something percent, at a very high level, of not certainty, but a chance that it can go to an E, and it's gone above that resistance level, the next one for the euro is at 1.4809, up 52 cents, the next level will be right here, and remember, when we're looking at price symmetry, the further away you go, on the upside of the downside, the greater the chance that you have to re... If it isn't an absolute obvious left side, right side price time match with the price on the left side, going down or up to the price in the middle, which says the same number of bars to the back again to that level, you have to find a different plum line, and this is my plum line, a particular candle that I always look at, and it just says, hey, if that's the case, we should get some kind of a top in the euro-dollar currency pair, maybe early October, it could be sooner of course, we're not the boss here, this is 87.4, no, that's right, this is a big D, and you get into the Chamberlain inside track resistance line, which is also the wedge target line, so this says, we're starting to get to areas of resistance, we haven't got the yen, look at the monthly chart on the right, it's the same pattern, and that usually does go to a D, but we get very close to the left side high of 150... 1.94 made in October of 2022, so all I'm saying is that I don't get this, and look at this, if you look at gold, nice move up, up eight points in 1947, just stuck in the range, could this turn into a U-shaped pattern that goes to a soft W pattern? Absolutely, so it's holding very nicely, let's go to GOLD, this is Barak, look, A, B, C, D, this is, you remember the chapter where we're always looking for D's, and that's where other things can happen, and what does it do, it goes, peak A, B, C, D, I hadn't updated it, there it is, and the weekly chart says, ah, nothing to see a monthly chart says, do you mean I have to type this in, how many times in 20 years have I done Barak gold, of course it changes the name to GOLD, but I did it just the other day anyway, I lost the chart, you know ASA is the one I always look at because the South African wine is nothing to see here, just in the low range, could have a bit of a balance, weekly chart doesn't look too good, so that's what I'm saying, and now you can go to silver, silver's much nicer, peak C just above the 200, moving average in the daily, the weekly is just a big congestion area, digesting gains, let's look at PAAS, peak D back in August, plummets down to the 15th area, runs up to the almost 17th, peak C1, pulls back, goes to peak C2, fails, and is plummeted down, no, I just, the fact that the market does up 51 right now and the SMB's up 21, it's just telling me, we aren't ready for any serious low, but we are getting closer, but I don't think we are there yet, so with that, we've raised cash for subscribers to my opening call, and we did take, get taken out of a particular stock that we had for ages since March, and it did fabulously, we took nice percentage gains, the last one for the core position got taken out for a 10% gain because I just wasn't prepared to see it go from the 24 entry level, it hit 26 something to our stock, we're out of that, and now it's trading at 20 in the 24s, I'm ready to get back in but I'm going to have to wait, and it's interesting because it's in an area it's in an area that has been hot potato for a long time, and not recently, now I just want to do this, as we're wrapping up, I've got questions about FXI, same thing, Dreaded H with a nice, is that a nice bounce deck, yeah, very nice bounce deck, yeah, stuck in a rain, rain, you got, and Baba was a question, Baba was a question, the gold report, as a precious metal gold is still king, it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai gold exchange, the gold report, Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations, the gold report, new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk, subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? 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Head over to TFNN.com right now to join thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award winning newsletter Market Insights firsthand. TFNN Educating Investors Biotech is booming but for how long? Whether you think the Biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade LABU or LABD Directions daily S&P Biotech three times bull and bear ETFs. Visit Direction Investments.com slash Biotech today. An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the direction chairs carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction chairs. To obtain prospectus or summary prospectus, please contact direction chairs at 866-476-7523. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor Four Side Fund Services LLC This program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Hi folks, so let me just get back to this here. I was asked about Uranium. So Uranium, this is the Kamiko Corporation Uranium of Fuel huge move up. Look at this weekly chart beautiful G slash B weekly chart is an F maybe it's an F slash B because it had an instant restart I'm calling it F for now but the price is way over the nine. The MACD is really strong. The casting spread 92% and look the MACD just deflected back up again. The casting in the data is down at A61 but that showed you that it had a little bit of weakness over there and the blue on balance volume is just steady right here. It has pulled back from that peak F I'm calling that a peak F top. But here's the pattern that we're always looking at. Coming down like this coming down like that. Definitely falling X formation. Let me just clean it up a little bit there and this is Uranium I mean really and the crude oil let me just put this together. Look at the left side chart. Yes your crude oil crude oil holding very nicely. I have no other way of counting it but to say it's a peak B. That says crude oil should go a little high and then we got to watch out because the 92.81 in the continuous contract a high that was made back here on the 11th or week of the 11th of November 2022 92.81 to continuous contract that price might change nothing else changes. In leg D right now with the doji candle says kind of watch this closely but it is holding very nicely. I just want to add heating oil only because I'm talking about the oil. So heating oil did the same thing. Look at this beautiful price time actually inside track inside wedge target repellent line it's going gone right to that point and it's at a peak D digesting gains we're on the cusp of a lot of different things if it's all of this turns down right here that'll be positive for the market I think but at the same time look how beautifully it's held so with that said the question came in so is you still catching up to UEC so you for you is the energy fuel right. Energy fuels uranium had a big move up to a g-stash scene now we often see that g-stash go to D and it's up today 55 cents up 6.7% at 844 this is all of this is not that good news for the general market because it's saying alternative energy and all that and the UEC which we still own from the 360 I think 364 area turning at 531 right now that's a very nice move it has the same kind of triangle pen information so we're going to be watching this closely but what a nice move it's up 7.6% today at 530 so all I can say is that there are so many mixed messages and cross currents in this market this is real riptide this is riptide action when you least expect it suddenly something goes a different way so all I can say is that this is a period to be a little bit careful don't be anxious to buy I wouldn't be too anxious right now to shorten this in specific areas for instance tall brothers now I started to really pull back look at that weekly chart look at the weekly I measured I showed you the measured move from the left side vertical move to the right side all the technicals were weakening on balance volume was very good and it popped higher now I'm starting to find that just says to me that the TLT breaking down like this I would be a little suspicious to say that gap can be filled with our little bit of backing and filling first so yields look at the TBT the TBT had a very nice move didn't make a new height today not yet I don't think so that was 37.49 37.49 49.49 an equal move so this is a leg C to get to the D if it's going to do that another high and then another high and this gets you I was doing this yesterday I'm going to do it again this gets you to this cup formation that says round about now you should be trying for the 39.22 high 3.92% of this October of 2022 almost a year ago so okay with that said FXI did that I did that Baba yes GT said call positions great I don't know where you got the calls if you got the calls yesterday this is fantastic 84 it hit 83.76 yesterday 88.88 that's fabulous if you have the calls congratulations but I would just I would get out of anything that makes me that money that quickly because this pattern is making lower lows and lower highs and that's the trend is lower lows and lower highs so I wanted to do some things here EEM was a question yeah this is the emerging markets having a very nice iron reversal pop up but iron reversals in anything that trades overseas is that's not a big deal at all because it trades before this market opens therefore you're going to get gaps like gold stocks silver stocks oil stocks that's what happens so as you're dreaded H and it closed within a day of a high well it hasn't closed but so far it looks like it's done that so this can go to a lowercase H that goes to a lowercase M pattern weekly chart in EEM emerging market ETF at 38.63 right now up 61 cents doesn't look that great K K KRE so this is KRE is the I haven't updated this for a while because we've been so disappointed in the action of the S&P regional banking ETF look at this daily chart trough D leg E to the downside this is a horrible move trading in the 49s just a month or two ago and now to the 41s and this is a whole index a banking index sector this is not good at all but the weekly chart is negative but it hasn't taken out the left side low of the 34s way back in April of last year of this year but that monthly chart is really struggling so I can just tell you that this is not a market to kind of dismiss and say it's just a little digestive phase in the sense that if you look at some of the stocks within some of the indexes indexes that used to be leaders like a bandit this is XLF it goes quickly peak A, B, C, D, E and then it gives back a huge chunk weekly chart is not too bad the line is still over the 14 but you've got to stock like Bank of America really one of the great banks wow look at that that's ugly, ugly, ugly and then you've got a Berkshire Hathaway which is a bank in the sense that yeah it's like a bank but it isn't a bank BRK.b and look at this B shares pulling back from your peak D in the daily leg D in the weekly and that's why I'm saying I don't see this as a major turning point in the market even if we get this kind of this kind of climax VIX index next week or some kind of a buy signal I still think lower lows and lower highs is the theme I don't want to change that oh I didn't finish there yes sorry this has been crystal ball I think it's got 10 information 5 5 see it's going to hide 37 things I'll be back 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5