 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We are down to the final four in the men's basketball tournament for 2023 we got two awesome games coming up on Saturday with the championship game coming up on Monday We are here to break it all down with dr. Ed Fang getting his read on the championship futures and talking about both those games on Saturday to let you know Where he's seeing value right now over at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joined here as mentioned by dr. Ed Fang you can find his work over the power ranked common Ed Chaotic four days across men's college basketball. We have now got I think pretty fun games I know people are talking about like the ratings and stuff like that, but like from a game-watching perspective I think FAU San Diego States Miami Yukon both those games should be pretty fun. So I'm stoked for Saturday. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. I'm pretty stoked for Saturday, too. It's been Pretty great tournament for me Like I've really enjoyed trying to catch like every single minute that I possibly can this past weekend It's been some pretty good basketball. It's been some exciting basketball a lot of ups and downs for me Obviously it was pretty painful to watch Alabama and Houston go down within a matter of half an hour not at all what I expected Obviously, I like both those teams coming into the tournament and that didn't work out You would like to see at least I don't know. I felt really good about them. I have futures on both of them I really thought like it was possible that they play in the championship game And they just didn't get it done That's college basketball and I guess I could hide a little bit behind the fact that I think I wrote that like Alabama Couple weeks ago that Alabama most years would be like a pretty strong two seed Yeah, you're not like the overall seed, which I think was true I think they just played terribly against San Diego State like instead of passing the ball They got bogged down into one-on-ones But you know, obviously was incredibly excited later to watch, you know, Gonzaga No, actually, that was the night before to watch Gonzaga Cover and then actually beat UCLA outright, which is pretty amazing Props to Drew Meijer, who's been all over conference USA and FAU had him in my newsletter he had FAU outright in the elite eight and That worked out as well. So that was a ton of fun So just you know, I just actually think just some great basketball and it's been really fun to analyze these teams and and to break down The final four teams like I do, you know, the primary contenders before the tournament It's been a lot of fun. Yeah, going back to that Gonzaga Thursday game Not the the blowout on Saturday the Thursday game That's kind of the joy of having a spread versus the money line I had asked you on Tuesday, you know any interest in the money line for Gonzaga and you said, you know I like the two and a half I want to stand there and when they were down one late in that game You were cash and regardless FAU's could have messed you up But like you were good and then they drain the three to take the lead But it's kind of beauty of betting is you don't always have to sweat that stuff If you if you find a better market I had the money line. I was sweating that a lot for sure But I mean that game overall even if you didn't have money on the line Just like a delightful game and kind of what we come for in these tournaments I know that like again, the discourse has been it's not blue bloods not like these big names not huge markets But like from a just a an observer's perspective. I feel like this year has been One of the more fun times I've had watching like the actual product thus far Absolutely, I mean it's been some incredible basketball and I think this is what we're getting in the future I think a lot of people will follow it more in-depth than I do think the transfer portal is Evening the playing field. Yeah, it's a lot of teams like FAU to go out and get someone that really fills out their roster allows them to go not in deep I Think we're getting more of this which kind of sucks because it makes my life difficult before the tournament because it's much Harder to it's much harder to pick a champ now. Yeah, you can obviously see that But I think it's good for college basketball and like, you know, like I said, I've been completely invested in in the games And that's been amazing Engaging more fan bases is never a bad thing and that's kind of what we're getting here So we'll talk about how that parody discussion plays into futures for this year's tournament here in a second We'll talk about both those games go in-depth on both the Saturday final four games in a second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast later on in this week Tomorrow, I'll be breaking down what my numbers are saying about MLB opening day running through Strikeout props money lines and much more will also on Thursday have a preview of the women's final four Justin Carter Getting his read on those games futures market there as well Both those podcasts going up on the covering the spread podcast feed and over on the fandom YouTube page So make sure you are subscribed to get those as they're posted whether your bracket is busted still alive or You're just looking for another way to get involved in March Madness And has you covered? That's why Fandal and Xfinity mobile are partnering to give you a chance to win a share of $10,000 for both the final four and the national championship game So $20,000 in total cash-pricing all you have to do is answer Prop-a-pick-em questions around in-game action inclusive of Xfinity mobile theme questions And the best part is it is free to play Fans that answer the most questions correctly win a share of the $10,000 grand prize for that contest round The second round of this contest locks on Saturday at 6 30 p.m. Eastern So head over to Fandal now to get on the action to enter go to fandal.com slash free slash contest slash Xfinity mobile pick-em roll again Xfinity or fandal.com slash free slash contest slash Xfinity mobile pick-em roll no purchase necessary age and location restrictions apply Void rare prohibited seafold terms at fandal.com Xfinity mobile has not sponsored or offered this promotion in any way as mentioned let's take it now to the futures market here and before we talk about both these games and The theme throughout not just this tournament But the entire year has been parody the market here is showing a bit of confidence in Yukon They are minus 125 to win the national championship and you know, it's justified. They're a very good team Ed there is a reason they are there they're a team you long talked about on our Brackets stream before the tournament to they're very high and like analytical numbers and stuff like that But we've seen a lot of parody. We've seen a lot of wonkiness so far. So Does the parody we've seen give wiggle room to bet someone else inside this market or is Yukon in your eyes? definitively the best team here I Think Yukon is definitively the best team and this is a pretty interesting Exercise and how you want to rate Yukon. I'm an aggressive model that tends to react more to recent results And obviously Yukon's been quite simply incredible in this tournament a lot of some part of that has come from hot shooting, but I mean I Don't think that completely explains the margin of victories. They've put up So when you look at my aggressive model, it will tell you that they're at 67% chance to to win The tournament which obviously suggests value in this market When you look at my model that tends to look more at season-long results So it will kind of average over the entire season and it will take you know, the same It'll take the same contribution from the win against Gonzaga compared to the loss against Marquette and the Beebe semi-final Before the start of the tournament. I think they've lost like six of eight games at one point in the biggie schedule They were really good in the out-of-conference season. They had a little bit of a rough patch. I think the biggie's is really good I've seen some really good basketball coming out of that conference But when you average that when you look at a model that you know, 10 tends to Assume more regression to their true strength over the course of the season. It tends to rely on season-long averages I get about Yukon at Even odds to win the tournament The market seemed to be splitting the difference and I feel like it's a lot It's the same as what we were talking about last week with Alabama, you know, my more aggressive model Really like the way they played they had no idea that they were gonna shoot 11% from three against San Diego State Although I really feel like Alabama killed themselves But not passing the ball So I don't know I passed on this market If you really think Yukon is as good as they they look recently You would clearly bet this if you think you want to stick with more season-long averages Then then you wouldn't and maybe you find some value from watching this team I mean, I've liked this team since before the tournament. Yeah, you have a lot of future pros on this team I think Donovan Klingon and Alex caravan are gonna be like two of the best players in the entire country next year They're freshmen. They're not going anywhere like this. This team is gonna be here again I mean, you know, that's here. They're gonna be a national title contender again based on those two guys alone And that and that's not even counting Jordan Hawkins and and Andre Jackson that I presume are off to the NBA I think teams will take them. I have no idea why San Diego is not an NBA drop boards I think any team would would benefit from him. I think this is definitively the best team We can talk about all the flaws of of the other teams But but yeah, I like you So I think the bigger takeaway here in terms of this market is you're not touching anybody else If both your models say you con is even money or better That probably implies everyone else is not gonna be a positive UV bed regardless what you want Now when we talked about college football ad you've mentioned that the more aggressive model has proven itself to be Your better model between the two you have been running Now with college basketball, it's a bit different because you've got a larger sample you've got all these possessions You've got a lot of data more games and stuff like that So what do you think is the the blend there? Do you think the more aggressive model in the long term will win out and be the Better one or do you think that exploiting the big sample size? We have is the preferred way to go blended model between the two What do you think is the the better better route for college basketball specifically? The more aggressive models been clearly superior over the later part of the season Alabama game aside last week Obviously, it's not gonna be perfect. So I've been really trusting the more aggressive model I've been mostly betting based on that and we'll talk about something a little bit later in the show So yeah, I mean, you know and that wasn't the case last year So the the one that lean more on season-long averages was more accurate against the spread. I Don't really know. I don't really know what's gonna happen last next year I don't really know the reason why ones work better this year and the other one worked better last year But we'll we'll keep tracking it. Yeah. Yeah, we'll keep tracking it might be a season-by-season thing I think the explanation we had for Football was transfer portal one thing but also like college players Progressing like in season in a pretty tangible way You think that would be the explanation for the basketball one performing the way it has as well. I I think so, I mean you're getting more Rossers that haven't played with each other and then you would expect that we get better towards the end of the season And maybe that's what we're seeing with these teams here that have made it to the final four That's certainly an explanation. Okay, so no value in the futures market as of right now Unless you want to buy fully into the aggressive model, which does like you con at minus 125 Let's take it now to these specific games coming up on Saturday beginning with the first one That is FAU against a San Diego State right now that spread is one and a half over at Fandall Sports Book total is 131 and a half. Let's start things off with the spread here at a very tight one. You've been on FAU you've liked them quite a bit What is your read on the spread here against San Diego State? Yeah, I've been really good. I mean not only telling my numbers But also drew Martin who's noted just how well conference USA teams have done this postseason overall There are two of them playing tonight in the NIT semi-finals. So the conference is done really well You know, my numbers have San Diego State by about two and almost two and a half points here. I Kind of don't trust it San Diego State is a great Deep I used I try not to go against my numbers, but I really don't trust it here San Diego State's a great defensive team, but I think they're They're really poor on offense like they've been hitting a bunch of contested jump shots to kind of get through these games They have Just allowed they're a great defensive team So, you know, it's not they're kind of like a Houston in a team that has been really good They they kind of allow you to shoot the three, but don't let you make a lot of them Yeah, the track record isn't quite as good as Houston, but It's not unreasonable to think that they would average like 30% 3.5 goal defense maybe 31 32, you know a Better than division one college basketball average, but it's kind of unthinkable that they'll continue to allow 11% from three, which is what they've done in the last two games. I Just think San Diego State's really overrated that that's more of a take from watching them play. I Like this Florida Atlantic team. They're obviously not perfect. I'm still mad that they didn't cover against FDU Which which I had some money on you know You get five points of closing line value and you still lose and you just get angry at a team for just like running up and down The court with with with the team. That's that's the only thing to do And they never really got it inside where they had a clear advantage over a very short team But look, this every new team is really good on both sides of the ball They're they're they're in the 20s on both offense and defense when I look at adjusted points per possession They go basically nine guys deep. So it doesn't really matter if one of them files out Um Just a good basketball team. So I mean I I would kind of lean Florida I haven't bet it but I would definitely towards Florida. I would actually note that like, you know Every other book I looked at earlier today is that San Diego State minus two Fandals definitely leaning towards four Atlantic. I think that's the right side So, uh, I wouldn't be surprised to see the owls make it to the title game Yeah, that uh plus one and a half right now is a minus 102 at vandal sportsbook on the fAU side of things So some balance there if you have two flat elsewhere The three-point shooting discussion you had also does relate to the total. That's right now 131.5 if you think that san diego states Is playing in an unsustainable fashion in terms of their three-point defense that might imply there could be some value in the over Are you taking that ed or do you think this market is pretty fair? Yeah, I mean, I I I'm not just because I do think san diego state is a good defensive team and uh Yeah, I mean, I think they're a good defensive team. So, um Yeah, I I I'm not I'm not too interested in betting it over right now Yeah, the money line for fAU a plus 114 right now So again, make sure shopping around. I think that ed you said you have not bet this yet What would you want that number to be because we do see public action in these games pretty often Which can move markets in a pretty significant way. Where would you want to see that number get to? Before firing on fAU specifically talking about the spread if it gets a two and a half Where your numbers have two and a half on san diego state would you take fAU at that time or Is it likely going to wind up being a stay away for you regardless? Yeah, we'll we'll we'll monitor it. I want to see what drew says about this game Yeah, you can actually follow out on boston on twitter. He actually writes up like some pretty in-depth things about These teams and uh, he's he's he's been a winning college basketball better forever. So I'd recommend following that You know, I mean, I I think I would like fAU maybe maybe like plus 120 on the money line Something like that Maybe plus two and a half. We'll see we'll see where the market goes And we're pretty close to that right now 114 again is the number on the money line So if we can get to 120 Ed might bite there two and a half potentially enticing him as well So keep an eye on the market there for fAU and san diego state Second game on saturday is miami versus uconn right now that spread is five and a half with minus 110 on both sides The total is 149 and a half. Let's start things off with the spread here Ed you mentioned that your more aggressive model is very high on ucon Does that translate here to laying five and a half or is that enough to keep you away? Right. So the more aggressive model has this almost at seven and a half So if you believe uconn is well what they have been over the last four games You certainly want to bet that when you look more at season long averages. It has is that at uh minus four So it was just a miami perhaps has the edge here Um, I you know, miami is pretty interesting because they're they're they're kind of like gonzaga without drew timmy So they're really good on offense. They're fourth in the nation and adjusted points per possession Uh, really get to the basket pretty well. Nigel pack obviously has like been amazing from behind the three They're terrible on defense. They're 88th Uh, when I look at adjusted points per possession, they don't have a lot of height Uh, that's really going to hurt against ucon. I mean, I think sunogo and clingin can do whatever they want Uh, I mean miami does have some width down there, which is going to help but They just don't have a lot of height. Um So, yeah, I mean, you know, it's a pretty guard-based offense. Um Look, you have to be impressed with what miami did is done over the last two games They really had a good second half against both hueson and texas two top five teams I would only counter that a little bit by like, I mean pack hit some incredible shots against hueson Um, miami was clearly the better team all around but he did hit some incredible threes that was was able to stretch that spread Texas was a team. I never really could truly get behind as a title contender Um, just just didn't particularly like That set of players didn't really see that there was an alpha on that team that that I thought could that would really put them over the top You got to give miami credit for what what they did but at the end of the day I think I trust the more aggressive model. Um, I I did bet ucon minus five and a half here I do think this gets higher before tip and And um, yeah, I mean, I I think ucon is gonna You know, again, like I would feel better about this had like alabama done better last week But I feel like they're in the exact same situation and I'm still feeling kind of burnt from just how terribly they played And ucon has been really hot from three and of course you can always go cold at the wrong moment And I mean, that's exactly what a miami team that doesn't really get it done on defense would would need and that can certainly happen But from everything I've seen from looking at kind of the matchups in in this game Uh, I I did bet you go minus five and a half Okay, so it is on ucon minus five and a half here against miami the money line there is minus two 45 The implied odds there 71 percent some other route there potentially if you think that ucon Maybe a bit undervalued could look towards the money line is as well there at minus two 45 again Both ed's models do imply ucon pretty heavily favored to win Maybe not just uh quite to 71 but ed is taking the five and a half total in this game as mentioned One of 49 and a half you talked about miami's defense talked about ucon's hot shooting any read for you on that one ed I would definitely lean towards the under I haven't bet it I feel like it's getting a little inflated from what miami has done over the last two games I don't think they're gonna have similar success ucon is is very good defensively. They have height They they actually defend the dribble drive pretty well. I think they're gonna make life pretty difficult for miami So I would I would lead under I haven't bet it but that's kind of my read on it And it could be a situation again where if markets move later on this week Maybe that makes it a better one So keep an eye on the total there 149 and a half right now if we get some movement towards the over there Maybe we want to bite in the under but as of right now it seems like ucon minus five and a half Favorite way to bet this board right now But ed we're not done with it yet because next week is the national championship game on monday We're gonna talk to you to get your read on that game. We'll talk to you about What you're seeing there maybe talk some you know any any other takes you've got about that We'll talk about that recap the final four as well But ed it has been a delight to talk to you once again for today to preview the men's final four What is going on for you over at the power rank right now? Yeah, I'm still running seven five and I'll get saturday We went down to five just it allows me to put a little bit more effort into each one Right make sure that that is a little bit more stellar. It's also a little bit easier outside of football season so It's my curated list of sports betting tips and bets and analytics and humor Actually got a complaint about the humor this week jim. So wow Yeah, gotta complain Dang can't make everybody happy They didn't think it was funny. What they didn't think it was funny. I thought it was inappropriate jim. I thought no They thought it was inappropriate. You're getting scolded. Um, I don't know. I have a joy putting that together I get some real joy putting it together because uh, it allows me to kind of interact with people that I know and Yeah, I've had people like drew martin and mike craig, uh, you know, give me some of their takes for the newsletter and uh You know, look if you want to wake up saturday morning and you want to get down on something Like I I'm I try to be there for you like every single saturday and then also like kind of spread some uh tips in terms of uh You know just insights and stuff like I had some stuff about I mean uconn was not actually in the preseason top 25 Which is usually a warning sign, but um But I you know, I gave the reasons why I thought they were I mean, I think the roster is awesome Yeah, sometimes you're wrong about that. Um so, uh, yeah, I talked about that actually it had, uh MLB win total last week. So yeah, I try to do everything there. So just check that out at thepowerrank.com And uh, yeah, I'll hook you up. I think the benefit to have seven or five See, I did it too five nuggets saturday is you get to amplify smart voices people you respect and If you respect them that probably is a good endorsement of them So you get to amplify them spread their thoughts to other people. I think that that is a good platform to use for sure. Um And uh, we can work on the humor I've got we can get some recommendations for you Uh in there as well. Yeah, I'm always looking for man. You text me anytime. You got you got good stuff It gets hard outside of football season. Yeah, so we're gonna go see trevor noah in boston on april 15th So yeah, we're getting close there. I should shouldn't get my location way like that Like I could get I could dox myself here But anyway, oh, we see him trevor noah then so We're seeing him in uh in in october. I think are you okay. It's the same tour probably Yeah, I'll let you know how it is. We will get him on for five. No, I'm sure it's gonna be great Oh, yeah, it's trevor his netflix specials are top notch Alrighty, make sure you check out add on twitter at the power rank if you want to find five nugget saturday It's podcast everything over at thepowerrank.com. I am on twitter at jim sonnis We are back again tomorrow breaking down what my numbers are saying about mlv opening day in terms of strikeout props Moneylines and more we'll talk to you then and also again thursday for the women's final four We'll talk to you all in a very in just a bit. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network