大家好,我是徐凡瑞,我是香港國會市的徐凡瑞因為我們現在有四個中國字非常地相對全球我們有四個中國字,我們有三個英文字母我們現在要告別中國製造的時代而要迎來中國創造的時代我們要向中國創造,這也是我們今天的主題我們要向中國創造中國創造的大靚訟我們要向中國創造中國創造中國的經濟未來的增長動力到底去哪裡?最終的贊助城市我們現在想來介紹一下我們請大家ビ賞發表給大家多少掌頭香港風黃蔚市總裁劉查厄先生接著為安勇派去時第二位是博士集監CEO詹姆斯副廷Mr. Jim Furley 歡迎上海國際金融學院院長 陸鴻鈞先生 歡迎你接下來這位是來自南非 南非研究所機構前哨諮詢公司首席執行官 馬丁戴維斯Martin Davis 皇上的執行官天津泰達控補董事長 張秉鈞先生 歡迎你天津泰達控補董事長 歡迎台上的五位嘉賓還有一位特別的嘉賓這位嘉賓我們已經有五位嘉賓但是他會記錄下來跟全球的人一塊分享那就是在我們台下的第一排熱烈掌聲歡迎我們的分享者  Prof. Dan Bresnick歡迎你本次來看的一個創新對 這個創新不過接下來的一個小時當中我跟小瑞兩個要接棒首先 lady first 交給小瑞來發問我們請小瑞來發問馬丁戴維斯那麼在我們向舊有的經濟模式說在建築之後 在新的經濟模式當中新的經濟工廠電視省而如何讓這些新的經濟專家能夠從國發展的進一步發展就是我們今天要探討的第一個話題這是第一個話題我們今天要討論的洛鴻軍先生蔡衛經濟學家你對經濟學家有什麼樣子的看法洛鴻軍先生 蔡衛經濟學家蔡衛經濟學家你對經濟學家有什麼樣子的看法我認為我們必須在中國的經濟展現尤其是在這次的轉型中以後我們要提升華為真正的方式我們也必須在那時候有提升華為的改變我們要提升華為的改變其實這種新的計劃中國中的舉行方式將會將會變成對新的技術 新的成績將會將會變成對新的基礎 新的成績對新的技術對新的技術對新的技術對新的技術對新的技術對新的技術我們要帶上冠貴身體, 新的發展力量,特別是, 新的資產平面,政府工作的上消息是,中國產業產業大量,中國是成本大股的,中國是中國大的副會,中國是中國的同一,中國是中國最大的副職,中國是中國最大的副會,中國是中國最大的副職,中國是中國最大的副職,中國呢?中國是中國最大的副職,中國是中國最大的副協議,中國是中國最大的副ells,在這方面你又在考慮什麼影響和影響特別是在外國特別是在發展發展經濟從我的角度在澳洲我認為這就是兩件事要提到首先我會給大家講解我們在 South Africa還有其他經濟在大陸隱瞞社會 政治 肯定在市場上因為中國的 slow down是很實用的在 South Africa是一個大駕駛機有一個大駕駛機在市場上有一個大駕駛機有十個利益所以一項十人吃你失去一項十人失去一項他們失去生活有一個大量的中國的工作因為中國的產業可能在中央80 plus 8080 million jobs利益這個經濟他們必須去哪裡當然像是菲律賓泰國 印度他們會得到的但是在 Latin America在 Africa還有可能在其他地區我認為當中國的經濟發展這樣還有其他地區有幾乎跟中國的產業有關雖然是財富但在財富我們如何開始重複重複開始採取能夠把中國的未來經濟發展進出中國的經濟發展好謝謝戴維斯劉長頓 劉總劉總劉總 劉總 劉總劉總 劉總 劉總劉總 劉總 劉總劉總 劉總劉總 劉總 劉總劉總 劉總 劉總劉總 劉總 劉總劉總 劉總劉總 劉總 劉總劉總 劉總 劉總劉總 劉總劉總 劉總劉總 劉總劉總 劉總劉總 劉總劉總 劉總劉總 劉總劉總 劉總劉總 劉總劉總 劉總劉總 劉總劉總 劉總劉總 劉總劉總 劉總劉總 劉總劉總 劉總這七個新的工業已經被國防總統計劃我覺得這些是好選擇從調整的觀點轉換的進行方式我覺得是很好的決定對今天這個經濟的政策當然是從文化的或者法律的角度這些七個概念不管他們是否確實我覺得他們需要更多的決定它 has already been decided by the governmentfor example energy vehicle and a new energythey are actually belong to the same categorybut we just put them into differentput them out as two major development areaI think we understand that as wellnew technology and energy is one of the directionsbut in terms of investment and development directionswe have to focus on several pointsfirst one we shouldn't beblankly invested in a large scalewe have to be investment in a rational wayespecially when investing in those technologyreforming areas otherwiseexcessive investment will cause excessive lossbecause if the technology has not been upgradedthen before the technology upgradingthen you start you investedthen there will be a lot of lossif there is a technology upgradingbut generally speakingChina's seven new industriesdecision has providedthe very prosperous futureaccording to 2010the small industriesonly represents 4% of China's GDPand by 2020we hope we can achieve 15%I think this is a每五年上一个大台阶it means each five yearsthere will be a step forwardand then by 2020there will be a huge breakthrough15% by these industryrepresentation on all the GDPbut there is a lot of work for us to doand we have to realize this very rationallyand make plans accordinglythank you Mr.Liaoyou have mentioned a very important issue todaywhich is we have to invest in these new industriesbut meanwhile we have to be really cautiousinstead of blindly investing in Mr.Pulleythe question is we found the new growth pointsbut how can we make themmore feasible and effectivewhile developing these industriesI think that many of the commentatorsalready have talked aboutthe great industrial strength of ChinaI think part of what is going to fuelChina's future growthis recognition that the industrial erawill also move into a knowledge erawe are seeing globalization drivea lot more value creationin intangible products and virtual assetsand intellectual propertytechnologies certainly impacting all of thatso I think a lot of thisthat is going to drive China's growthis going to be having a realmore open and free exchange of knowledgewithin companies and even between companiesand thatit creates a culture changewhen people realizeknowledge is not to be held closebut to be shared within a companyso you can really innovateI think a piece of what is going to driveChina's growth as the bigstate-owned enterprises continue toprivatize and commercializeoftentimethat results in some job shrinkageto be globally competitiveI think the twin enginesof local entrepreneurshipwhich always builds jobsand foreign direct investmentwhich again always builds jobswill more than compensate for that好thank you張劉俊先生太達公司其實是一個very largeinvestment corporationfuture economic growthand those industrieswill be your investment targetwe would like to hear your opinion on thisjust like you mentioned thatof coursewe ourselvesare a large investorinvesting institution in a marketover the pastwe have seven prioritiesand recentlyre-framed our investmentpriority and portfolioaccording to government guidancefirst is the regional developmentreal estatein the past we always focusedon the regional developmentbut now we focus more on realestate nowsecond is utilitythird is constructionor manufacturingand fourth is thefinancefinance and service industryi believe thatare stillonly occupyinga small proportion of ourinvestment portfolioand we hope in the next five yearsespecially given the finance industrywe hope we can have morestake in the finance industriesand we hope we can catch upwith the market trendadjust ourselves all the timeto keep up with the timesfinance industryand finance industrywill be too top of our heartsand in the first roundwe heard all the paneliststhey are using their observationson the future economic growthon the new powerhouseso are we having any questionsfrom the floorplease first identify yourselvesthank youI'm from Nankai Universitymy question is for Mr LiuI heardafter I heardyour observationsso we're not talkingabout powerhousethe growth enginewe are now in an openeconomy and we try toreform an openour economy to the outside worldthis is a top-down processand we try tosuccessful experienceswe can learn is to attract moreand thento develop some high-techindustry zones as carriersto develop a forceto enhance the suppliesso if we follow those patternand those key pointsour foreign investmentour foreign tradeour foreign reserveour companies are all goingbigger and biggerbut all will be the future powerhouseI think in the futurewe can seek more resourcesand in the pastwe are in a very low positionin a value chainwe have some very poor divisionof some poor divisionof the laborI think Mr Liu also mentionedthat we need to refocuson some strategic industrieson some strategic industriesso if we see thatthe central governmentalready outlined a futurewe have some challengeswe have some challengesthat iswe are all following a generic approachthere is no tailor-madeor prioritized agendaso my question for Mr Liuis how can webetterestablish ourselvesto move us upand then establishsome high-techunique industriesunique industriestoprovide poweror engine to our future economyso I would like to ask Liuto give us more informationok Mr Liuin terms of those 7 prioritiesby the central governmentdo we have any prioritized agendaor geographic locationswell I think I already mentioned thatwe need to bevery prudent and cautiouswe cannot follow a leap forwardor a great leap forward approachwe need to followstep-by-step gradual approachand we cannot affordto be repetitivewe cannot over-investor follow a kind ofextensive economical patternso the new set of strategiesparities from the central governmentbecause now we all emphasizeour scientific development approachso we need to be very prudentvery rational reasonablehow could weavoid to repeat the past mistakesand how could webetter enhance our capacityto build up some new industriesnew power postswhen we talk about high-tech industryscientific and technological innovationto play a linear role in this processthat's a very right directionbecauseyou need first to make it rightotherwise the investment will lead towasteso we have a term calledtechnological trapthis kind of trap is very dangerousif we over-investand if we expand our investmenttoo fast and the failto properly handle the balance betweenthe technology and investmentand then we probably won't get a good returnthank you Mr Liuwe need to be really reasonableand give it towards the futureinvasion decisionsMr CharlieI think you can give us some new pointsI just wanted to amplify somethingthat the questioner talked abouthe talked abouttop-down processesand in the future bottom-up processesmany countries around the worldare actually striving to createinnovation centersSkolkovo and Russia comes to mindand many others and China is doing the same thingand I think the tensionthat is going to take placeis between the top-down and the bottom-upbecauseThomas Friedman wrote an interesting editorialthat I read a couple of years agoand he said top-down innovationis usually very orderlyvery planned,very controlledbut not very smartbottom-up innovation is chaoticit's haphazard,but it's brilliantand so I think for China to get that balancebetween the top-down and bottom-upis going to be crucialI'm very confident the country willbut I think that balance is importantin your companyyou are more a smarter way orwell wespend a lot of our timeworking with the best entrepreneursin the world all aroundfrom all four corners of the earthand we think thatreally bottoms up innovationcreated within an ecosystemthat has fundingacademic researcha whole array of great ideasbring people with different perspectives togetheris the best wayto ensure successI want to add a couple of pointsjust now we talk aboutbottom-up approachif we extend thetopic a little bitthen the key isnew energy or newseven prioritieswell,so the key here isnew marketif we can explore or developthe downstream marketif we have a matured downstream marketand then we can remove that bottleneckthe governmentif only think about future guidanceand our policy guidancethen they probablywill also need to think of thoseplastic thingsso if we focus on marketand extend a market conceptto cover those seven prioritiesor seven industriesonly by doing sothank you Mr.Curleyand Mr. Liuthey all touch upon a very key topicthat is seven prioritiesare actuallyhelp us identifyseven growth poem postswhether we can deliver this strategythat still depends on our market reformwhether we can deepen our market reformwhich of course we should followtop down our bottom upso what kind of role the government should playProfessor Luwhenever we talk about Chinese economywe always emphasizewe have our unique characteristicswe have a macroregulation guidance from the central governmentbut now we are in a difficult economicdontorsso you think the central governmentshould follow the same approachfor the macroeconomic managementI think in Chinainstitutional economicsis a very key topic hereover the past 30 yearsof the rural developmentthe central governmenthas been adapting itselfin playing different rolesPremier Wenyesterday mentioned thatthey are constantlyadjusting their macroeconomicregulationin line withthe real if marketsymptoms or effectsI think macroeconomicregulation has three categoriesfirst is hardbinding macroeconomicregulation for example4 trillion stimulus packageyou need 4 trillion and weinput 4 trillionso this is a kind of hard regulationsecond categorysoft regulationsoft regulation refers tosome industrial policiesyou need to guideindustrial policiesand I think the key here iswe need some smart regulationsmart regulation isto guidethe innovation guidedevelopmentso I remember thatback in 1993when I was participatinga world bank meetingin Washington D.C.because back thenthe situation in 1993is pretty much similarto what we have todaywhen we talk aboutcompetitivenessactually froma governmentcapacity in allocatingresources and positioning itselfin the global economyso duringthat timesenior LarryMr. Larrythe senior economic advisorto the president in the united stateshe mentioned a couple of key pointsnumber one through investmenttrade you need topromote economic developmentnot relying on tax cutI thinksecond pointprudentmonetary and physical policiesnotproactive monetary policyit's prudent physical and monetary policyso this kind of observationare actually verifyingsome ongoing practicesin developing countriesthey are following this kind of approachto economic potentialso according to your observationthe key is not on regulationit's on actuallyregulation tacticsor your strategiesso I noted Mr.Turley you notedso according to your opinionyou think China need to reform its regulationapproach our strategyI think China is absolutely doing the right thingsand on the right pathbut I think having smart regulationnot no regulation is what I was nodding atso some in business would sayjust let us aloneI think we need to have smart regulationthe invisible hand you talked about is very smartwhat is so crucial thoughis the comment that the chairman madeabout the marketevery successful entrepreneur I knowand I've met them all around the worldthey all start with what's happening in the marketplacewhat the needs arethat are out therethey see these needsthey have a vision to create a product or a serviceor what they've identifiedthey have the courage to take risksand risk their own assetsto build a businessand then very importantly they have a persistenceto actually pick themselves updust themselves off when they failbecause most successful entrepreneursdid not succeed the first time they triedand so it all starts with the marketas was pointed outDavid do you have a different opinionabout Chinese regulationfor example regulation on Chinese realis the marketand this is very controversial topicso you're thinking in the next couple yearswhat kind of hand we needfrom the central governmentthat's the prime examplebut I think what it broughtreflects in China is this tensionbetween the stateand enterpriseand I think the key no discussionwill be completewithout a very thorough investigationof the future role of the statein this economywhat you knowreviewing from the outsideChinese commentatorsare you too hard on yourselvesthis is an economywhich is 7% oddin the deepest darkesteconomic periodpotentially everin our part of the world7% is a targetit's a dreamit's not a slow downbut the Chinese stateultimately has become the entrepeneurlistening to Wenjiabao's speeches todayit's all economic statisticsit's all about growthit's all about economic deliverythe KPIs are purely economicI think what has beencreated has beenalmost a Darwinianhighly competitive environmentcreatually competitivethis is the intangible drive of growthfrom this economyit's an intense competitionand the survival of a fitter sort of mentalityin that private sectoryou have a relatively protectedcash hoarding at timesstate or enterprise sectorI think even now at this relativelyearly stage of China's outbound capitaloutbound capital companies talentis the ones who are succeedingare the private companiesand this is unique to China'spolitically economywhere successful private companiesalmost getadopted by the stateit's not about ownershipit's about a foreign commercialpolicy nationalismand I think when one is lookingstarting abroad the success casesI'm seeing right nowbeyond the oil companies obviouslybeyond the extractive industrieswe are seeing these private companiesas you mentioned market drivenmarket awarebut have almost been adoptedstate's nationalistic foreign commercialpolicy intereststhose of the companies that areinterest are very strong interests going forward謝謝 張董事長 請補充我是怎麼看這個問題呢其實其實我比較同意馬丁先生的這個觀點就是說呢我們其實對我們自己的政府確實是要求太高了因為中國畢竟還是一個還是一個發展中的國家還是一個經濟處在一個這個增長的過程中還不是一個發達人的國家所以我覺得呢應該呢是政府這隻市政這隻還是要稍而遲動這一起來努力那現在那政績有這麼一個好奇事大根就覺得是雖然有點太長了但是人們 are questioning whether or not the government is playing a策略I don't really think soin different areas for example in the infrastructure areait should be government guidedstrategyfor example in a new energy areathe government should take a leadto encourage the development of the industrybecause at the very beginningthe development of new industrywouldn't achieve a lot of profitstherefore it needs the government supportbut after that time periodprobably we can give theindustryleave the development to the marketand then it can developaccording to the market rulebut so far China hasn't reached that level yet謝謝thank you for your analysisnow I would like to open the floormake the floor open for questionsany questions from the floorthank youI have two questionsfirst questions for Mr. Davisyou mentioned earlier in your speechthe statistics of 80 million jobsI want to knowwhere that statistic come fromand you also mentionedthat 80 million jobsis going to impact the economies outside of Chinait's about how the others get this 80 million jobhow do you think it will impact Chinaas a developing economythank you這數字到底怎麼來的8000萬個工作的數字the statistic comes fromJustin Lin Linifufrom Beida from Beijing Universityand in his recentthing he was writing onI think it was new structural economicsthe argument being of the next ten yearsChina in the last two years perhapsis past what's called the Lewis turning pointwhere the cost of productionoutstrips the gainsreproductivitycost of production to the swingso what we see is thatwhere previously we were seeingcost of production perhapsmaybe 15-20% per year in certain provincesat the same time it didn't really matterbecause we're having productivity gainswhich outstrips the wage inflationthat point has been sort of passedthe pendulum is now swinging upwardsas a result of rising cost pressuresit's not just about wagesabout cost inflationproduction costs in Chinahis argument wasthat potentially of the next ten yearsChina could lose perhaps 80permanentlyso what does that mean forother developing emerging market economieswell, Vietnam has becomealmost like the new South Chineseabsorbing jobs which GuangdongFujian used to receivenow going to Vietnamwe're seeing similar effects in Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippinesto an extentmaybe even further afield to the likes of Sri Lankaand South Asian economiesfor us in Latin America and Africaare saying well how do we at leastgeoeconomic shifttaking place in the Chinese economyas you are very rapidly moving up the valley chainclearlyis how do we start to geton the bottom runperhaps of labor intensivebottom end industrializationhow do we be more proactivein attracting these jobsto our parts of the worldthe last comment is thatthe most memorable conversationI had last yearI'll never forget was with a professorat Tsinghua Universityand he told me very brieflythat the biggest challenge China hascurrently we, Chinahave approximately 96 milliontertiary graduates, tertiaryuniversity educated graduates in this countrywe have over 200 million, 225I think he said, blue collarindustrial labor intensivemanufacturing workers, in the next 10 yearsmaybe by 20, 20, 8, 9 yearsbetween in the next decadethe biggest challenge China hasis how do we replace225 million blue collarworkers withgenerating 10 million graduatesa year on averagewith 200 million graduateswhite collars, that's the shiftthe question for us is how do we getthose blue collar workers from Chinainto our own economies好,謝謝,謝謝接下來小蕊還有有關於企業如何來增加他的產業鏈to improve its value chain我們接下來的一個討論可以從這個手機來開始let's start from the iPhonethe price of it is 6.5USC companiesare making425.9USD而中國生產廠家或去的Korea companies are making60 something USDbut Chinese companies are makinga very small part of the profitthis is also insainableso we have to discusshow can China businessesimprove its positionon the global value chainthis is a very important issuebecause the modelof the old model should beget rid of and we need tohave a new model so Mr. Liu Chang Lewhat do you think is the keystrategy for usthe data I did the calculationbased on the data you providedChina only當然這跟美國人在選舉的時候提出來對中國的市場造成了他的就業的壓力是不準確的應該說他們把德國的日本的韓國的所有這些國家包括附加值的那些錢全部算在中國人腦子上這是不公平的客觀地說這個3.6%這個數據應該說有那麼多的大的工廠當然在就業方面應該說在第一級的我們把勞動力分為第一中高這三級的這個層次上來說第一級的這個勞動力應該說確實是解決了一部分的就業問題這個規模還是很大的但是呢確實我們看到中國的這個轉型到這個關鍵的時刻就是說中國的再靠以後我們可能會講到劉易思拐點的問題再靠這個第一成本的勞動力勞動密集型的產業來支撐經濟的發展這個時代應該說已經去不復發了中國已經進入了一個非常關鍵的一個發展時期如果我們的轉型問題解決不好那很可能我們就會跟其他的一些國家沦落他們一樣如果做得好那我們當然會有一個很好的發展而在這裡邊呢我覺得最關鍵的問題呢實際上還是一個創新和高科技和創新和科技產業的發展這樣的一個話題包括教育那麼我們可以看到一個數據了就是關於中國的RDR&D的這個數據呢目前有很多程序了我們又有一些不是最新的數據但是我想把這些數據跟大家分享一下R&D呢就是Research and Development這個數據這個數據裡面呢應該說呢中國的這個數據是非常可憐的中國是一人中22個人每10,000人在R&D方面而同樣的數據分裂的12人R&D但是分裂的數據是229韓國在2006年韓國在2006年已經達到99俄羅斯都已120但是我們是20但是我們是22人家是我們的5到10倍我們是舍長我們是俄羅斯的5到10倍我們是韓國這個問題在哪裡我們是國家首先卒扬所以我覺得中國要想何時才能想 of亞大利爾我們主要想 Become再級級考慮 就讓他們運作環境貧困是不是有點治癒所以我現在還沒問答我是不是結婚ィ等如想把政府和這個這種話題的跟中國的關係政府的作用在市場的經濟中間發揮了什麼樣的作用這個問題非常的非常的敏感也非常的在目前來講也非常重要比如說我們現在如果要強調政府那很可能就忽略政府的作用那如果我們過分的強調政府的作用那就會忽略市場的作用比如說如果我們把財政問題接完機車發的越來越大那麼會帶來這個重要的機車如果它是 highly decentralized整個經濟發展的這個市場發揮過越來越少這個政府會被 restricted但是如果我們像西班牙那樣把所有的財政都分給了地方那西班牙經濟的稅也很重要的地方也很重要的地方對於中國這些市場中國這些市場也很重要的地方那麼政府到底應該扮演什麼劇場的劇場什麼劇場扮演的劇場對 三個數也很重要一個數呢一個數也很重要第一個是大的項目的投資者這個台北的股份比如說剛才張公講到了關於技術設施再一個關於財產業比如說飛機比如說航天這是毫無疑問這就重點這個美國基金的美國基金的還有國家的歷程還有另外還有非常大的有這麼大的科研項目更大的研究方向這應該都是這應該都是這應該都是這應該都是第二個的問題第二個是市場致族的建議市場致族的建議是 the founder of the market order and also the founder for the market direction所以 the major function for the government we can summarize the above mentioned points together it should guide China's economy to a more regulated the market economy that's the function of government Thank you Mr. Liu for sharing your points这些是政府应该想到的更有势如何能够让市场进行更完善的发展这是政府现在需要做的提升市场的规模对 提升市场的规模对 提升市场的规模那么刚才在如何提升中国价值链的这个角度上还说了一个是我们要加达科技的一个是要加强人才的培养技术资金和技术资金所以我们有什么样的想法在这个问题上你认识到价值链的问题吗我认识到价值链的问题我认识到价值链的问题中国价值链的关键和经济的增加还要继续继续的专业的增加所以我认识到有几个不同的方式一是认识很多公司认识政府的工作并向美国兼职向美国兼职美国兼职继续继续的技术资金他们需要的经济三个层次继续的增加是非常重要的它需要不同的技术所以我认识公司需要专业的技术或者技术技术我认识的第二个就是中国对美国兼职并向美国兼职继续的增加是非常重要的就是中国的领域中国的领域中国的领域中国的领域中国的领域中国的领域中国的领域中国的领域是它们会拿出一个利润然后建立一个货币他们已经发展了需要的市场会长远谢谢Torley我们要有不久的传言话所以我们要用自己的这个传言家这种的提升进行进行进行进行进行进行进行进行进行进行所以我们都只想担忧的一点就是如果我们现在再不能够提升的话可能中国的这个经济未来发展就面临一个一个长时间的一个停止比方说拉美的一些问题会不会在中国这样一场传生所以现在日本比较需要提升自己价值的这样的一个冤枉所以现在我们没有需要提升自己价值的这样的一个冤枉只有这种别人认为肯定会有什么认为有什么认为不过我再�过我再来我是在说我是在说我们全正在传眼观众我们全正在传眼观众但我看大多数传眼观众是需要的所以在中国我回头有一些点有幾個重點 here firstly is capital is clearly not a problemtalent and the surplus of talent perhapsmaybe not entirely the critical mass ofinternational experience talent of course is lackingbut domestic talent who play a very strong home gameis undoubtedly there. I think thirdly and one thingfrom a developing world perspective is strong institutionsstrong public sector institutionswhich again which reinforce the abilityof the state to become an entrepreneurthe internal competition issueI think the intangible driver but not oftennot spoken about enough driver of growth in this countryis the intensity of competition one sees in the economyintensity of competition between companiesbetween individuals particularly between citizensintensity of that and I think lastly howeverwhat no one has mentioned so farit's a discussion for undoubtedly another timebut we're living in very changinginteresting times here in China right nowand all of the future of the Chinese economyand all Chinese friends will hopefully agree with meis predicated on the good management of politicsit really isso you cannot have an economic discussionwithout a political discussionbecause politics ultimately will lay that foundationand this entire future economy we're talking aboutis being predicated那麼剛才劉承樂先生也在講just now Mr. Liu has already mentioned that科技和人才是一種關鍵are the major drivers for theimprovement or challenge positionson the value chainwhat do you think我想大家都不會反對I don't think people will object thatI agree as welland personally I thinkyou mentioned about the value chainto the initial question of yourspersonallymy experience isvery complicatedI was a plant headmanager of a plant for eight yearsI was also a head of a research institutefor about six yearsso in terms of talents, technologiesand the different levels of the value chainI have probably a different point of viewfrom the other paneliststhe division of the value chainglobally I agree with what you areannounced your analysispeople were trying to improve to a higher endinstead of staying at the lower endso back in the 1880sin Shenzhen we are at the lower leveland that is not sustainablebecause it isconsuming a lot of labordividend and resourcesand a lot of public wealthto achieve a short timehigh speed of developmentbut thisthis kind of developmentcannot be negatedvery stronglyorpeople cannot just saythat we would like to get rid ofmade in Chinawe would like to developinto a state where it isinnovated in Chinamanagering back in the 1880screated a lot of jobsfor Chinaand nowa lot of public companiesare still in that stagethey are stillmanufacturing at a lowerpart of the value chainand we need that as wellso the division of the value chainis getting finer and finerin the worldthat is in line with thenommate developmentbut we cannot justsimply generalizethat manufacturingbelong to the lower endpart of the value chainand we should get rid of itno we shouldn't say thatwe still need itjust nowi fully agree withMr. Liuabout the technological trapi was once the headof r&d centerr&d requiresa huge amount of investmentand a very riskyadventure or effortand it requireslots of talents and peoplesothe market, the governmentthe researchers and generalpart of itthey don't have the patience towaitthey alwaysarethey always verybushy for the resultsand sothey only can waitlike one yearand the second yearthey requireimmediate resultsso I thinkChinain orderto transformeconomyof coursewe need to move upalong the value chainbut we need a vastmanufacturingsector as the baseof our economyand of coursethe investmentin human capitalis very importantMr. Lui want to addone pointwhen we talk about value chainwe need to emphasizemoving upalong the value chainthis is a kind ofglobal consensusso herefinancial servicesis an important topicin chinathis is a top priorityrecentlywe have collaboratedwithr&d centerin Hiloand we talkwe have researchedfinancial chainor industrial chainin the countryand we found outthat as long asyou have the kind offinancial servicesor systemsin placeand thenactuallyit can facilitatethe developmentof other sectorssectorsand industriesso I thinkinvestmentand financethey are actuallylike puttingthe seasin the groundor in the soilthey providemoney capitalto feedthose companiesand sectorsif weonly considerinvestmentas a kind ofharvesting activitiesthat's why peoplehave those kind ofbiasand actuallyinvestment offinancial serviceswe need tobe very reasonableand thiskind ofpaymentfrom paymentfirstseesand thenliterallyyes pleaseyeah real quicklythere'swe thinkabout innovationand movingup the value chainis only aboutyou knowthe next Googleor the next Appleor what notinnovationis also aboutdramatic improvementsin manufacturing processesand innovationwithin the industrialsectorthat actuallysubstantiallyincrease productivityso if you thinkabout the commentthat was made earlierabout the chartthat you showedthat kind of innovationin the industrial sectorextends the lifeof the greatmanufacturerwe have hereand makes itvery verycompetitiveglobally謝謝謝謝Turtle創新在於我們提升價值當中也會拜訪非常非常重要的主持innovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovationinnovation你解释得更深刻謝謝我認為大學在中國但在世界上在生活中有很有趣的地方因為大學需要不僅在中國但在世界上有很多的國家在未來的成績都比較不同於大學需要的技術所以我認為有一個很緊密的解釋在大學、大學、政府是很重要的其實要確保大多數的學生在政府中在學生中所訓練、所經驗的學生是最適合的在學生中所看待的工作所以我認為所有的學生都在大學上在大學上在學生中所訓練我們都在想你怎麼做正確的事所以這就是挑戰謝謝謝謝Torley下一節的討論交由一虎主席謝謝小蕊我們從一開始進行到這種談論三個話題不管是拉動中國的經濟或者是如何提升你的價值面真正的目的在什麼或是希望老百姓他的口袋錢的都多一點如果接下來我想問大家在做的問題有沒有哪一位可以告訴我你的收入是多少可以在這個場合當中公開告訴大家我猜沒有人願意但是我們來看一個這邊透過這個圖表你可以了解到大部分的中國人AQP的收入到底是多少透過這個屏幕我們來看一下你可以看到中國人均的GDP來對比的話中國人均的GDP來對比的時候03年的是1087美金08年的是108713到了3000多美金2012年今年到了8 432美金這裡頭就出現了一個問題在西方非常擔心中國會出現所謂的中等收入陷阱也就是說到3000到6000這個收入之間的徘徊點可能就停滯在這裡很多國家出現這種情況比如說80年代的巴西阿根廷等等但有些國家曾經有這樣的問題但是他跳出來了比如說我們鄰居的韓國就克服了中等收入上的陷阱我們中國會不會面臨這樣的考驗一位嘉賓最後只有10分鐘我要先會誰我先彌補一下劉總裁剛剛我請來他問我想要彌補一下劉總裁因為剛才這個數字離開之後你再想一想你再想一想你再想一想你會有什麼印象這種收入的這個數據目前的一度比如說在中國我們有不同的評論在中國這些數據目前的一度有什麼印象這個數據目前的一度有什麼印象我們現在在2005年我們現在在2005年我們現在在2005年我們現在在2005年我們現在在2005年我們現在在2005年一度作為一個作為一個作為一個作為藉署我用這個為今互動它是這樣說的它是比如說它講的是從1到40萬元的家庭收入50,000 to 450,000人民幣這個大貸是一種退站很難這種作為一個做物價保來這個數據目前的編 Molly現在目前 extended by就是是 project其實我們在2005年我們現在還要在2005年在2020年中國可以預期發展到45%那麼對於州等收入的陷阱對於中國的檢討已經到了一個非常不公平的地位我覺得這是非常好的一線線線線線就是中國能夠在談論這是好中國收入陷阱的問題這證明中國是有非常好的危機它非常清楚的知道而中國的發行教室知道韓國的我們知道的教室是從巴西的教訓我認為巴西能夠真的教我們一個好教室因為他們在這裏受到困難的困難然後我們能夠真的學會全部是關於新興建築物和政府的改革所以我還不太確定我們會否有些資料來自巴西當然,我的資料都是從寫的韓國的一位政府發行教室但是韓國呢他有經驗的這個路線他們是從不同的路線進行的這是一個非常有用的經驗我們能夠學會當他們達到10,000USD他們又把他們打回到了7,000美元然後他們的金融危機將他們的資料從10,000到7,000USD然後他們再回到11,000USD現在他們有20,500USD所以你們可以看到中國的數字只有5,400USD5,400USD,什麼樣的排跡是中國的那是87,87所以有些人在想中國會推出這個排跡很快那麼我們可以看到在這樣的一個關鍵時刻中國會不會推出這個排跡現在我們有一個很大的進步但是中國會不會推出這個排跡就是這個很大的進步我覺得現在我們有一個非常重要的潛力我覺得中國會不會推出這個排跡我覺得中國會不會推出這個排跡原因我就不講了我們就跟大家講對,實際的關係大特別要問一下對比因為就我所瞭解我不知道再次有沒有韓國的記者在我知道,您在韓國待過幾年您在韓國當時什麼樣的什麼樣的學習您覺得我們可以從韓國學習我最可能有上升學習時期的生活是在 November 1997我住在蘇州是當時的 IMF韓國的韓國人在時期叫做 IMF  equals I'm fired哈哈哈哈經濟實際上是在 November 1997但是這個中銀貨貨我寫了一句但是這個中銀貨貨這個東西是很簡單的你會看到在 Brazil你會看到它在不太 distant future in India你已經有它在西方它是關於把大部分的大部分和大部分的大部分分成一個大部分會是一個小部分只要有大部分的大部分像在 Brazil 像在西方一個比較小的大部分一個非常有能力的地位重點是大部分的大部分但是在中國中國的大部分是一種免費的嗯哼我們這個是直播的節目剩下最後三分鐘來Turley 來回答補充一分鐘您對中國能不能克服中銀貨貨Mr.Turley你認為中國在中銀貨一分鐘 please我覺得他們絕對可以你看到銀貨對於中銀貨的增加比起我住在美國我們看見中銀貨減低了10%在同一段時間之間所以我認為中國能夠超越這個我認為 access to opportunity education是絕對重要的我認為很多東西我們在這個頻道中會 help facilitate that嗯哼陸院長Mr. Lu我認為像 Argentina原因為何他們因為他們原料中銀貨貨在因為中國的中銀貨貨貨有 Records他們現在的銀貨貨廂通關結構對付銀貨代表在中國我認為中國的話中國的銀貨貨貨大部分的銀貨貨我認為世界銀貨的銀貨全並對的銀貨幅車儘管只是下購 Prudential全新都是神傲新銀貨多款配合美國投放在黑龍江,在這個市場中,歐洲的財富系統會有很好的財富。所以, Mr. Zhang,我給你一個領導,你從中國的經濟商業來說,所以人們說的是,歐英旗的老闆大力的風範法,在S.O.E.,S.O.E.必須分享更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,更多的財富,I'm fully confident about China's future project.I think middle income is kind of average number in China.We have a huge back market domestically.I fully agree with the Prime Minister.He visited Sichuan province a few days ago.I was in Beijing.My driver got lost.We want to reach South Sichuan's third ring road.And then we finally we actually get to the fifth ring road in the south.So if you go in the south on the fifth ring road,it's pretty much like a rural countryside.It's not a blue capital city at all.So you can see it's not a blue capital city at all.It's not a blue capital city at all.Thank you.Thank you.Thank you all the panelists.So now we only have 30 seconds.I think we all share observationsand I think from each and every panelistand we all believe that everybody has this full confidenceof the China's future project.I only have two points.I want to require the general publicto give a big hand to Mr. Zhangas the CEO of the SOEto share more practice with us.Thank you.And second point,all the other four panelistsmaybe they have different opinions with Mr. Zhang,but they do have one common consensus.That is,we have confidenceand the confidence and hopeare coming from Mr. Zhang.Thank you.Thank you.That's the end of the session.Thank you.Thank you.Thank you.Thank you.Thank you.Thank you.Thank you.Thank you all the panelistsand I want to thankall the audience.