 Hello everyone. I'm here today to talk about an impact study that we conducted in Morocco and it's about evaluating the agricultural climate change impacts on Moroccan agriculture and the economy, including an analysis of the impacts of the Plain-Maroc-Verre PMV strategy in Morocco. So basically my presentation outline, I'm going to start just discussing a little bit the motivational objectives of the study and give a snapshot about the Moroccan economy through some stylized facts to move and discuss the analytical approach adopted for the analysis, describe the data and the scenario analysis identified and present you with results and conclusions. So the motivation behind studying and modeling the impacts of climate change and their economic impacts has to do with, and especially in agriculture, has to do with the fact that we know that agriculture is the biggest, it's projected always to be the biggest loser from climate change impact, at least in the region, in the context of Morocco. And through the linkages of ag sectors to the rest of the economies, there is some important feedback effects and linkages that feeds off each other. So we need to understand those linkages and what it entails in terms of costs and the impacts. So far there are few climate change impacts that has been done in Morocco and there is a growing need to provide policy makers with more updated studies so that policy making can be done based on informed choices. And then there is need for basically for quantification of these impacts so that policy makers can better grasp the impact and the extent to which their policies might help adapt to the general impact. So basically what we propose, we propose to assess the climate change impact in Morocco adopting a regional perspective where basically desegregating the country in multiple regions and we mapping out basically the projected impacts on those regions. And for that we used well-established climate scenarios from Morocco with and without adaptation strategies. Agriculture in Morocco is a key sector despite the fact that in recent years there has been more de-capling of the economy from agriculture and moving more towards industry and manufacturing and services but still agriculture has some still important linkages and it's a very strategic sector. If we add for example the food processing sector which has strong ties to the ag production sector, it accounts for 90% of GDP back home in Morocco. In terms of labor force and employment agriculture employs 43% in general and in rural areas it can reach up to 78% of labor. The the ag sector in Morocco is still dominated by rain-fed production to a large extent. Irrigated land represents only 11% of total agricultural land and that is due basically to the large share of cereal production that is the predominant production in Morocco and which account for 68% of total arable land. In terms of agriculture as well has some some important linkages in terms of trade and foreign exchange. It accounts for for example 43% of export of total merchandise export and for 11% of total merchandise import. So historically ag productivity in Morocco can be tracing it back to post independence as we can divide it like in three phases. Phase one was characterized by low productivity levels and that was primarily due to the policies enacted after independence where the country has been following an aggressive import substitution strategy basically where agriculture sector was playing a major role in driving the whole strategy. So there was like multiple conflicting policies that most of the time offsets each other's and help explain why for example we observe this this situation. The trends picked up changed a little bit in during the 80s where the Morocco started investing aggressively in agriculture especially with the king's plan what they started like they started investing in doubling trying to double basically acreage especially for cereals. There was a lot of encouragement for investment in the ag sector and as a result we've seen productivity picking up but one of the major problem that always that faces the ag sector displayed is this problem of volatility of performance and that was a major problem for Morocco and it's primarily driven by the lack of resilience of ag sector to climate shocks in the country. Historically droughts have had like severe impacts on agriculture in Morocco and it's improving but as we can observe from the volatile trend in the ag GDP this is still a recurring issue in Morocco. So our analysis basically used a computable general equilibrium model. It's based off IFPRI's general framework by logframe and all in 2002 and as adopted by my colleague Dudu here at Chuckmack in 2010. So we try to capture the Moroccan economy through 30 production sectors and producing 30 commodities and we have agriculture production is modeled through thin activities with livestock four activities and the rest of the sector as displayed. Households are represented by two representative households we just we captured the rule on European households and they are basically regionalized in Morocco and the government accounts on the rest of the world of course. Production basically is modeled as a profit maximization problem where producers try to maximize their profit subject to a technology constraint or production constraints using a set of primary factor of production labor capital and different land categories. Households maximizes utility subject to consumption expenditure constraints and government basically collects tax there is no behavioral modeling of government. So in terms of closure assumptions we assume basically the consumer price index which captures basically the price that consumers pay to buy food in the country that's basically is a numerator that's with respect to which the model solves with respect to which all prices are basically solved in relative terms. Exchange rate is flexible because we think that in the long term although Morocco is following somewhat has somewhat a peak controlled policy in terms of exchange rate but in the long term with it's a fair assumption to make that exchange rate will be allowed to to fluctuate to allow for external shocks so forth and so on and so on. So the base data is from a social accounting matrix developed by Dr. Rashid Dukali who is in Iyavih Hassan in Morocco. The base year was for 2003 and it was modified basically to account for our adopted sexual aggregation. The regional aggregation is based on the administrative and economic regions in Morocco and they are 15 so basically we're regionalized crop production based on data from the agriculture survey on major productions for the base year 2002-2003 which matches up with the base year of the SAM and for the rest of the production sector we used a host of different sources basically that give statistics specifically about each sector so that we came up with a fairly good regional structure for the other sectors. In terms of the climate yield we used the climate impacts from the World Bank, Morocco FAO study. They estimated basically climate change impacts for 50 crops and the four-time horizons and for two SRES scenarios. We picked the 2050 horizon because it seemed to be fairly basically good in capturing our two concerns that is climate change impacts are projected to be severe like in the long term so we needed basically kind of a long-term projection of the climate change impact but on the other hand these impacts are highly uncertain like the more we go forward on time with climate projections the more there is a greater noise of uncertainty so we chose 2050 kind of a middle road between the available choices of time horizons that are available in the study. The yield impacts were initially downscaled to 10 km by 10 km grid cells which are compatible with the EEZs in Morocco and that's basically the initial aggregation of the climate change impact. We had to basically desegregate even more, move from the EEZ to the regional aggregation and to do that basically we just inferred by a cross comparison of maps where basically each EEZ lies in terms of regional coverage of our regions and we used the production statistics basically to compute an index for each crop of the yield impacts in each regions. So in summary basically we identify eight scenarios that span basically the climate change scenarios that we adopted and as well our scenario analyses basically they span like two climate change scenarios A2 and B2 under different specifications. The climate yield impacts are provided with and without C2 fertilization effects that can be quite important in terms of impacts on yields. In terms of adaptation policy Morocco has recently back in 2008-2009 initiated a big strategy investment strategy called the Plan Maroc Vert with the aim basically to boost agriculture production and make agriculture sector like one of the main driver of economic development in the country and their aim basically is to achieve that through providing assistance and encouragement primarily for private investment through public private partnerships and as well as modernization of distribution circuits and enhanced integration with local international markets and encourage and reconversion of land crop basically this is just adopting a more suitable crop mix by farmers especially in rural areas to move them away from basically climate sensitive crops to more climate resilient crops and other policies. So this basically summarizes the PMV has a regional basically plans that identify the targets in terms of productivity for each of the regional plans and this table basically summarizes the targets that are included in PMV in terms of productivity gains expected from the investment project. Now to move and discuss the projected yield I mean in Morocco basically and as has been mentioned by my colleague Ahmed the tendency is that agriculture Moroccan suffers from climate change and for clear reasons that we mentioned before a predominance of serial production in the country most of the land is under rain-fed production systems and this is the results basically showcase what we see is we notice like huge substantial declines basically in the main serial productions that suffer basically substantially from climate change but on the other hand the impacts are quite mitigated for crops that are mainly irrigated like tomatoes and citrus in Morocco they tend to basically lose and win but for example under more favorable climate under more favorable if you include for example CO2 fertilization effects the latter basically we see some gain yields in those in those crops and that has to do basically with the fact that there is a difference on how crop categories basically react to concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and usually vegetables and citrus because they are irrigated they tend to benefit from more concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere so basically we run our analyses and overall what we see is and they're basically the worst-case scenario and assuming no adaptation the the overall impact is quite negative and quite substantial I mean GDP falls by minus three percent also all the macro accounts showcase negative impacts of climate change this basically just what it tells us basically is just that the severe shock of climate change basically act as a drag on the economy as a whole basically is the whole economy is contracting and two two variant degrees but agriculture, sex and food processing industry basically particularly are affected and that's that's trauma because especially for food sector for example there is there's strong linkages between the ag and food processing and food processing industry when we compare these results for example to historical historical data we have seen in the past that severe climate climate shocks can have can have similar impacts on the country it's not it's not something that's new in for Morocco it has been reported in the past during severe droughts for example in in the 81 drought we we have seen some some substantial decrease in GDP but in general as the economy moves more and decouples more from agriculture there is like more resilience built in to these kind of shocks but it's still it's it's still it's clearly it clearly shows that the more severe the climate shock is the more negative impact is on the economy as a whole to be expected when we look at the sectoral okay so i'm gonna move quickly so this is just basically impact on income basically what we would expect is as the economy shrink basically there is some declining returns to factor of production which are translated basically by lower wages this basically translating to losses of household income and if you couple that basically with with the price effects from reduced supply basically from reduced production of level it translates into a decline in household consumption which affects the welfare just to move to quickly to the adaptation so when when we account for adaptation we see that there is a potential basically for for for reversing the trend with the PMV strategy but the the PMV strategy as it stands is is an investment project the targets the the productivity gains that basically their projects are are basically assumptions on you know the achievable whether or not that could be translated in reality remains a question mark and needs to be further investigated so thank you for your attention