 Hello and welcome to the Monday Market Webinar update with myself David Madden here at CMC Markets Market Analyst. Today's date is Monday the 30th of April. The time has just gone 12 15 British Summer Time BST and as always with the webinars we will be running through the risk warning slides before we actually proceed with the webinar itself. It's all very straightforward and simple. If you are a regular listener to the webinars you will know that this is common practice. It's all very straightforward what it says on the slides. In essentially states anything that is covered in this webinar is purely merely thoughts, views, comments and opinions and should not be construed as explicit trading or investment advice. Meanwhile the slides are sitting there for you guys to have a read through. I'll just have a quick talk about what's going on in the financial markets, the big news of the past few days. Essentially the big single stock story of the day has been that Sainsbury's are interested in merging with Asda. Sainsbury's is the second largest supermarket retailer in the UK. Asda is the third largest and if the combined proposed merger were to go ahead the combined group would then actually be the single largest one. They would just narrowly overtake Tesco currently in the top spot and Morrison's who were languishing in fourth place would probably be a very distant third place should the takeover go ahead. But that is still subject to your regulatory approval so it is necessarily a done deal. But at the time being Sainsbury's has had a great bordering up the last I saw 50% whereas Sainsbury's and Morrison's are suffering on the back of this deal going ahead and they are lower on the session. Well as we got big macro news tomorrow is the first of May the deadline for whether President Trump is going to look to impose sanctions on the European Union or not. It's not looking like he's that he will but at the same time that is still something that is something on Trader's mind. Speaking of trade and sanctions the United States of America sent a trade delegation over to China to talk about trade and this is also something that is playing on Trader's mind. Now if there's a possibility a trade war could break out. There's been no further developments on it but equity markets in Europe have had a good run. The footsie is at a multi-month high. If you're looking fairly stable in Germany as well and on top of that we will so Trader's will be keeping an eye on top of that Trader's are going to be keeping an eye on for what's going on political front because about a month ago equity markets came under a lot of pressure for fear we could have a global trade war. Now nothing has really progressed on that but no good news has led to the markets pushing no bad news led to equity markets broadly pushing higher in Europe the last few weeks. Now it could be a bit of a crunch point. It could be a case of nothing really comes from this and we cannot get anyone on that move but in the next few sessions I think the possibility of a trade war is going to be the main focus. Also as always with the webinars what I do is I do a quick one through of the various different events on this week so go to our the news analysis section or website this is where some of the news and analysis that we do gets posted. If you scroll along here this is the page you're going to open now the week ahead gives a breakdown this gets posted every Friday and gives a breakdown of the major news and a corporate and economic events of the of the week ahead so a quick skim through that there's something to keep an eye up for for terms of potential market moves during the week so tomorrow Tuesday which is the first of May we will have first quarter figures from BP second quarter figures from Apple and first quarter figures from snap snap the owner of snapchat on Wednesday we have a Fed reserve meeting now even though even though we're not expecting the interest rate in the United States to to move the update and the statement that follows could be important in fact that that's probably going to be the main focus of Wednesday's session so the as always with the update from the Fed reserve in the key will be in the language the Fed reserve there is talk that the Fed could have three more interest rates in 2018 now we've already had a rate hike in March which is what's expected wasn't too much of a surprise whether we have three more or potentially two more uh is is off traders or is but the traders are very much divided over so the language that the Fed use on Wednesday could be a could be a way for the Fed reserve to set the tone or pave the way for a potential rate hike on uh sorry in uh in next month this here is actually in actually now out of date uh since it's worked due to poster for your fingers on Wednesday but because they have the uh there another of the weekend of interest interested in merging with asda seems to be figured you know what what's the point when on Wednesday we're going to update the market on monday today about the proposed merger with asda let's just uh pronounce all the figures in one go uh on friday we have first quarter figures from international consolidated airlines and on friday we also have the policy non-farm payrolls update as well from the states of between the Fed reserve on wednesday and non-farm payrolls on friday it's going to be a big week for i think that i'd be u.s. dollar for us indices and internal global indices and also markets like gold uh that are run run down to various different companies that are figures out i mentioned a couple already fives are also figures out on on tuesday on wednesday um companies companies such as the higher groups have figures coming out mastercard of figures coming out on wednesday scrolling down to thursday we can see the southern base of figures out and on friday hspc the last of the big bridge banks to report their figures uh come out on wednesday now for those of you um who tune in regularly this this may come as a slight surprise uh but what but this is going to be for the time being the last monday webinar uh 12 15 that we're that we're going to be having uh we're going to be taking a break for the month of may uh so what we're going to be doing is we are going to be having a think about how we can change do things a bit differently in relation to the to the update so it's there's a possibility we could be looking at restarting doing a doing a webinar as of june but for the month of may there'll be no monday market update now we will be having a market update on friday coming for the nonfound payrolls amongst the other amongst the other webinars but what i got what i need you guys to do the regular tuners in and listeners to this to this webinar um throughout the actual webinar um you know of opportunity to kind of talk about to interact and talk about what uh what you'd like to see from a webinar because we're looking at basically changing how i would do things here so what i'm going to do is talk to you now about any potential way any any opportunity and any kind of ways that you would like to see the webinar enhanced or improved or changed or altered feel free to have a think about it during the webinar feel free to put it in the in the chat section in the comment section i can read it um and we'll then go from there because like i said we won't be holding the monday market webinar in the month of may so this would be the last one for the in the near term we're looking uh possibly at restarting it and the the webinars the updates in the month of june nothing absolutely set in concrete as of yet but but if you do we would like to do a potential potential change to it and for you guys who are regular listeners to the webinar the live webinar if you any thoughts any opinions any comments you want to give feel free to state that because we're happy to we're not necessarily absolutely entirely wedded to the process that we do every single monday but at the same time if you want to anything to be done differently in terms of things you look at or how it's structured feel free to put that in the comment section and i can ever i can ever read through that after the webinar itself is over as always i'm going to be doing the cover the major markets now i'll be getting on to the kind of body of the webinar second co-country indices currencies and commodities and i think any markets that i haven't covered that you don't need to cover feel free to do that so like i said when i went to the webinar feel free to you know have a think about what you'd like to see of future webinars from cmc and how we can do this one differently and feel free any comments positive or negative or any idea suggestions feel free to just put them out there feel free to type in in the chat box while the webinar is going on because obviously once the webinar comes to an end that all it's i guess gets closed down if you want to contact me over twitter it's d madden madden m-a-d-d-e-n underscore c-m-c is my twitter and say what what what what what kind of contact that way feel free to do it that way as well so if any suggestions at all seriously i really do urge you guys any suggestions feel free but that's enough of that pushing out with the actual webinar itself so take a look now here at the 4500 first and after that what is that a decent one in recent weeks how does kind of solid upward trend for basically for just about five or six weeks now as you can see here hit a level here not seen since basically February early February of this year so the market's pushing higher firmly above the trinity moving average which comes into play in around just south of 7400 but the market's pushing higher here the next big level to watch out for to the upside would be 7600 and if you go north of that towards 7700 and if you think of 7700 then of course you'll be looking towards the all-time high just just north of 7800 notice how as the market's pushing higher the market indicator is quite strong so the the market's pushing higher and buying momentum is still strong so that's uh that's basically the kind of the view on the futsy should we move south should we have a pullback because given that we've had effectively a month of almost extreme gains a bit of a pullback wouldn't be a bit of a surprise and if you do we could find some support coming to play in around the 7400 area or south of that even down at 7300 and it's only if I have a size of a break below the the fifth day moving average here at 7200 because then we actually be looking at heading back down towards 7000 I take a look now at the cheer market so I think as you see here the cheer market also set a decent move over the last month but notice how on several occasions it seems to run all the steam anytime it approaches the 280 moving average which comes into play at around 12666 so it's almost like there's a kind of a bit of a barrier at that price area but at the same time we haven't seen the move market much lower we just haven't really managed to kind of break break north of that big barrier so a move breaks north of the 280 moving average could see us heading back up towards this level here the January low of the early January low of 12,741 and should we go north of that they keep an eye out for the big psychological number excuse me apologies for that should we go should we go north of 12,741 this area here from early January of this year we could be looking at heading back up towards 13,000 that'd be the big psychological number north of the market is basically kind of trapped between the 50 moving average this comes into play around 12,310 on the 280 moving average so if you have a size of a break south of the 280 moving average that could take us back down towards 12,000 but what I'm going to point out about this is even though the market is edging higher we're seeing a fairly obvious taper off in volume momentum so the market isn't pushing higher I'm not seeing an increase in momentum so it could be a case so we might be in the near term in for in for a bit of a pullback because it would appear to me that the that the the buyers are running out of a bit of steam take a look at what's going on in the US with the Dow Jones the Dow Jones has also been a range bound recently ultimately the way I see it as this the market is still holding above the utility moving average this red line here which comes into play in around 23,770 there thereabouts even though the market isn't particularly overly strong wider remains north of that key metric it's likely that I think a wider kind of bullish trend over the last few weeks is going to continue but that being said it's also stronger to break north of the 50 moving average which comes into play at 24,000 and 24,600 and has also proved proved it's an ability to get up to get north of the one or two moving average which comes into play at 24,895 there are a couple of metrics that we need to actually clear before we become more confident the thousand is up for trend should we go north of the one or two moving average the next day to keep an eye out for will be 25,000 and then beyond that the mid the mid the mid-march high at 25,507 a break below the third moving average this this red line here could send us back down toward the February low of 23,118 so 20,138 and if you do we take off that level that will then be fresh 2018 low and I'll be pointing towards further losses take a look at what's going on in the gold market gold is an edging lower yet again the the firmer US dollar as the tick is a how's it the price of gold notice how it's a lot of price consolidation in around the 100 day moving average at 13,20 we're currently at 13,14 so we're a few dollars below that but at the same time we see a lot of consolidation in around the so suggests that it's trying as best to get away from that metric and if you continue to push south from here because the price action the last few sessions has been the downside a steady increase in negative momentum so the market's pushing lower the momentum is increasing that that says that's the negative momentum that is so momentum is clearly with the sellers and with the fairs if anybody managed to keep pushing on lower from here the next year to keep an eye out for will be the mid-march low of 1306 and then south of that the big psychological important 1300 number 1300 which actually basically coincides with the 30 moving average move to the upside and we need to clear a 30 and 30 the 50 moving average before we get before we get before we can uh kind of you know begin to restore a positive outlook for the gold market and should we go north of there we can then be looking up towards the 1352 1354 region which is seen here at the kind of the middle the middle of this month take a look now at the oil market like I was saying if there any ways you think we can approve this the webinar I think you want to do differently feel free to type in the chat box as seeing as no one has given any advice recommendations as so far it's just a reminder that the option is still there and feel free to do it so WT so we're looking here at the oil market we're looking at a Brent oil Brent oil last week here a fresh 41 month high we're touch lower on the back of a bus tail we're very much in the upward trend like I said it's at a 41 month high multi year high it's been in a classic upward trend for several months now even though we saw a sizable of correction in February the market has been creating higher highs and higher lows so it's sort of very much in an upward trend if you continue to push on higher from here the next area to keep an eye on forward to the upside will be 7610 I should be going beyond that towards 77 dollars a barrel move to the downside may find some support coming to play in around the 72 40 area and if you go south of that again we're going to be looking at coming to play in around the 71 dollars per barrel it's only if you see a break south of the April low which comes to play at this area here in around 76 67 rather 67 56 and 40 in around here could then we actually look to actually move lower yet again and then we could be head back down towards the 65 dollars per barrel area thank you for your advice there Steve I appreciate all of a look at the proper a bit of a chat about the actual the actual recommendations when the when the webinar is over but if you anyone else anything else wants to type in some chat type in entering some feedback or commentary for on the how the webinar I've drawn feel free to do so I'll just continue with the webinar for now and then look to actually have a chat about it when the webinar comes to an end in about 15 minutes time so take a look at the WTI market it's a very similar chart WTI also last week racked up a multi multi multi month high as you can see here the oil market is in a classic actually it was actually the week before it actually racked up so about 10 days ago WTI was at a fresh 41 month high as you can see the market really has moved a whole lot from there we can see so the wider trend is very much to the upsides is that that should that's going to the clue you need to be looking at the big picture track is still very much in place we've been aging slightly lower we've seen a decline in positive momentum I'm actually meant to actually spoke to the negative now so we may see the market drift a bit lower from here areas of potential potential support make it into play in around the 66 dollars a barrel level and perhaps if you drop further south from there you could be taking it back down towards 62 which would be the early April low and once again so you really really need to be getting more nervous about a correction the oil market if you go south 62 we could be looking at getting support from 60 dollars a barrel but it's only you want to be nervous about the outlook for oil if it goes below the the February lows of 5810 that could be that could be a suggest or point to further losses but move to the upside and all could take us to take us toward the psychology important 70 dollars per barrel and the goal was beyond that we could be looking at heading towards up towards 71 72 so on and so forth take a look now as I mentioned the US dollar is quite strong and it's weighing on the price of gold and one of the main losers on the back of the strong greenback has of course been the US what has of course been the euro so take a look now at the euro euro dollar chart but we can see here the euro last Friday dropped down to drop down to a level not seen since pretty much the middle of January so we are talking about you know more than a three month low on the euro versus euro dollar Friday the market has been tapering off here we've seen a steady increase in negative momentum so the buying pressure is still very much with the sellers and with the bears so while we remain south of say this level here the the water day moving average which comes into play in around 120 to 20 if you outlook for for the euro dollar in the near term could remain could remain bearish and if you show me drift lower from here the next year to keep an eye on for will of course be the tourney moving average which comes into into play in around the 120 basically just just pretty much on 120 this red line here the journey moving average that'll be a big metric to keep an eye on for and if you go south of the the 120 area then keep an eye on for the this this area here of the high from that from like the late november of one spot 1961 and if you go south of that there's a lot of consolidation in around the 119 level itself if you retake the 100 day moving average at 122 spot 20 we could be looking heading up towards 123 coinciding with the 50 day moving average and if you go north of that we could be looking at going heading up towards 124 take a look now at the pound versus the US dollar as I said starting at the US dollar I said a good run and also suffering in the back of it has been the pound is also partially driven by the fact that that Mark the bank of England isn't as likely to raise interest rates next month as initially suggested Mark Kearney the governor of the bank of England has a reputation of being an unreliable boyfriend and that actually appears to be that actually seems to be the case yet again Mark Kearney last week updated the market stating that basically a rate hike next week has a rate like next month really isn't a done deal and on the back of that we've got what have you seen between a fairly sizable sell-off sizable sell-off in the power versus the US dollar and even the point where if you draw a low between the collective lows from March last year to August last year granted I know it trades okay it's okay to you through it in November last year this trend line here we can see that should be very much actually has actually been breached and the market is actually now south of the trend line so when a trend line is broken it doesn't necessarily suggest that we're going to see a complete massive change in trend bearing in mind this has been a solid upward trend for over a year it often just means the existing trend will continue bad at a less steeper gradient or a steeper rate so it doesn't suggest that the record all of a sudden going to complete a sell-off it just means that we could see the market drift a bit lower here and then if the wider positive trend resumes it continues but at a less a less aggressive rate if that makes sense so rather than actually see a market say at a 45 degree angle grow that way it might be at a more say 25 by 30 degree angle so while we remain south of the trend line in the near term we could see the market drift lower we could see it head back down towards the 136 65 area this is the high from from September last year because that's the next big price point to watch out for south of there we could be heading back down towards the the 136 area we saw the consolidation of 136 and then south of that again back down towards the 30 moving average which comes into play in around one spot 35 20 now you could see a drift lower towards that out towards one one spot 35 20 but given that it's been an upward trend for 13 months I suspect the wider upward trend is going to continue and at the market does does it does get it goes on from here areas keep out for will of course be 139 saw the consolidation of 139 and then of course the 140 area and notice how 140 coincides with the 50 moving average so it's a big psychological number it goes on the 50 moving average which recently as you saw accidents both support here at the beginning of the month and also resistance here towards the end of the month so if a metric has has acted as support of resistance has been significant recently it makes it more likely that that'll be significant again in the near term keep an eye on the euro versus the sorry the euro versus the British pound so it's really market see what we'd have a look at feel free to shout out if there any anybody else I appreciate that Steve I relation to the feedback if there any anyone else is listening out there once you get some feedback and how we can improve the seminar or webinar rather or alter it feel free to type in type in the box uh in the next few minutes because I will be wrapping up the webinar itself in a few minutes time so you're all starting in the last few sessions has had a very very decent bounce back after after getting a multi-month low only a few weeks ago uh levels not seen taking us back all the way back until may last year so not too far off one month lows mark as a fairly decent jolt higher but while we remain south of the 100 200 day moving average here at 0.8881 it's likely the outlook is going to remain negative now the market's pushing higher here is taking up the 50 moving average and 1 day moving average but the real asset test will be the eternity moving average at 0.8881 if the market does turn over itself again the next day to keep an eye for will be the 87 area and then of course south of that will be the recent lows of 0.8620 and if you go south of that then of course think about psychological 0.86 and 0.85 if you do manage to take out the 20 moving average at 0.8881 the next big the really big area to keep an eye for will be the early merge high of 0 spot 89 67 i think up beyond that 0 spot 90 will be the area to keep an eye on for next uh this is going to be the last market i'm going to take a look at unless of course there are any markets you guys would like me to look at i'm going to take a look now at the u.s. dollar versus the japanese yen so as you can see here there's been a fairly sizable sell-off in the darien for 2018 but it is making a fairly decent comeback uh market's pushing higher here it's it's reclaimed the fifth day moving average it's even reclaimed the one day moving average now the asset test is going to be the two-day moving average coming to play at 110 spot 30 um so broadly speaking the markets will be pushing higher the last of a five or six weeks broadly speaking we've seen sizable enough increase in positive momentum so the middle of the last five or six weeks has been with the fires which is a good sign uh if you're long but the market has seemed to kind of be getting a bit of a bit of a sideways move for the consolidation move in around here and notice how we're seeing a bit of a slip off in positive momentum so we are seeing a bit of a bit of the pressure and momentum from the buyers weighing a bit so we may see the market in the near term slip slide a bit lower so may find some support from the one day moving average at 108 spot 86 or perhaps even down as low as 108 but given the movement over the past five or six weeks it's been the upside we could be looking at testing the 20 moving average at 110 spot 23 in the near term and if you go north of that keep an eye out then for the early kind of the January high of 111 spot 48 and then if you go beyond that we could be looking heading back up towards again at 113 57 113 60 region up here if the market does those take out the 50 moving average here at 106.87 the next area to keep an eye for the downside would be 106 and then of course the march low of 104 spot 63 so uh I've quickly now talk about a few items in our platform as they always do so like I said some of the updates that we do get posted to the news analysis section of our website which of course is here but other updates that we do throughout the day particularly live data in order to get posted to market insights which is this tab that I've opened here market insights can be found under the market pulse and it's the second option down what we also do throughout the day is update the chart forum and this isn't just for CMT market employees it's also for CMT market account owners so you guys can actually also update chart form as well and try to get a conversation going about what do you think of certain market so I said to you do a chart forum can be found on the market market pulse it is the third option down chart form is essentially a snapshot of a particular chart and a few words written about the actual chart itself what do we think of the price action is doing or where do we think the market's going or key levels to potentially keep an eye on form also under the market pulse can be found the the economic calendar market calendar fourth option down and it'll give you the actual as soon as data comes out it'll be populated in there the actual figure will be out it'll also give you the consensus expected and also give you the previous figure as well so keep an eye out for that so what to watch out for this afternoon session is going to be German CPI is coming out in about 15 minutes one five that we don't want to watch out for in the near term also I want to point out like I said the Monday market webinar is not it's not going to be held to the month of May we're looking at rebooting it in in June or possibly afterwards but like that we're looking at possibly doing it differently like once again appreciate your feedback Steve because anybody else that wants to write some some feedback on some commentary feel free to do so put it in a chat box all feedback is welcome positive or negative negative we're all about improving the service that we have here to feel free to type in the chat box I also want to point out other webinars that are that are going on on Wednesday the 2nd of May at half 9 at 19 at 19 30 7 30 p.m. bird of summertime we have the live global market report on a Friday the 4th of May at quarter past one we have the US non-farm perils live cover so that's 13 15 bird of summertime quarter past one London time and then on Tuesday the 8th of May we also have the trader development program part one foundations of technical analysis which is really recommend tuning into technical analysis is a very helpful tool in particular for short-term trading on that webinar is going on Tuesday the 8th of May at 1900 BST 7 p.m. UK time so as to know other comments and really markets you want to look at there's other other other any other feedback you want to give I appreciate your time there's going to be a video of this webinar on our inside section within the next hour or so I do want to thank you all very much for tuning in and for your feedback so from all of us here at CMT markets have a good trading week and good luck