 Let's get over to our man. Mr. Tim was we do every Tuesday and Thursday and our man Mr. Tim wood folks not only hit it out of the pocket and gold He hit it out of the pocket in the S&P if you've been following us every Tuesday and Thursday And if you want to understand how Tim looks at the market folks, okay? And what type of ratios that he uses to look at the market? Well, it's very easy to do because Tim is going to be doing a workshop this Tuesday this coming Tuesday It's only a hundred and forty nine dollars if you go to the front page of TF and end bottom line You can sign up right now. It's gonna be from four to five thirty, you know You've seen the results. That's the bottom line the results are the biggest deal man So, you know, you don't understand the market you want to understand something that people don't have Okay, because the bottom line is that when you go through these they don't have them You want the formulas come over to the workshop and if you can't make it live folks Remember that it's always archived and you can go over as many times as you want Tim or what's going on? All right. I kind of made the charts hopefully a little bit more easier to read. I think We're going so fast on Tuesday. I think people were kind of confused what the charts all about so I'm hoping that to make this lot clearer This man, it's all it's always clear what happened there and I apologize folks, okay? It was on my side and you know, that's how that it really was Tim, so I apologize But that this is this is sweet. You got you got the mocked off right now and first off Congratulations, man. I mean, you know, this is you know, we've been on the air now for quite a while You know first you hit the gold market and you know the bottom line is that you hit this one nice And I don't know if you have the swag deal on this one, but before you get off I want to know what that number is. We'll start with John one though Yeah, we got it on Cool cool. So yeah, this is start from chart one. Okay This is there's you know, I've been saying, you know that you got to have panic and you know That trend and ticks are really good. Well, sometimes they didn't trigger on this last decline The ticks and trend really the 10 day didn't really get in the bullish territory and it happens Every well, so you got to have more tools in your toolbox. That's right to pick out To pick out what's going on. You're like Robin Hood when your quiver is full Yeah, so you know, you can't I don't rely on one indicator But if you get two or three lining up like this time around I did then you kind of step up and you catch the following life as they say and And you know, we went long Friday and basically that was a closing low. Yes, buddy. Yeah, let's look at in chart one Okay, have it up All right, anyhow, the middle window is a chart one is basically the VIX. It's the daily VIX That's all it is VIX trades opposite of the SPY or SPX. Yes. So in other words if VIX goes Goes up usually mark goes down And if the SP's go up the VIX goes down But when you get the VIX going up or if you got the VIX actually going up How's that see you I think here? VIX going up when the SP's are going down That's that's usually the right way to look at so I look at so instead of Running out I do the SPX VIX ratio. What that does is reverse the Ratio to look similar to the SPY chart so when the SPX VIX ratio is going up also the SPI is going up and when that happens you got a confirmed up trend but when you get the verges is going on numbers you got the S&P's going down and the VIX Going down with it. That's the divergence if you look over to the right side window the very right side Yes, you notice the the S&P kind of fell through the floor going into last Friday from March 27 Yes, and and if you see the VIX It was it was actually Going up in that time frame. That's reason I got those little dotted lines there to show That the mark was going down and the and the VIX was also Going down going down positive origins and that's reason why one of the reasons why I went into the market Yeah, three times You know if you go back and look on the chart, you know go back to the 2020 high. Yes Way back there. It's kind of circled in kind of a light pink there If you notice the S&P's were going up and Right above that's the VIX. The VIX is also making higher lows So that was the reason why I got bearish in 2022 Right now Yeah, just give me one just give me one second Tim because I want to show the folks this so To cut to the chase folks okay with Tim was saying here when he went long Friday, okay? Which is important and this is what he's going to be going over on this coming Tuesday I want to show you I'm just gonna bring another shot on top of his I want to show you on Friday So when you look at on Friday, you're gonna see What Tim's talking about what should have been happening there when the S&P was getting smoked Well, guess what the VIX went from 22 to 19 point seven five So it went the opposite way meaning that if the S&P is getting smoked Well, we should have been going after those highs and we weren't and that was that's that's the kicker And that's that's one of the big signals that he's talking about okay, Tim Right. Yeah, that's good. There's another time in 2023 that's a kind of light blue-arid mill the chart. Okay. Yes, I see that We were talking on the radio and everybody I remember was kind of bear bearish. Yep around that April May period and then I got that little the market was kind of going sideways there Yes, and and if you notice the Charged as the VIX was actually going down right so that was the reason why I stayed long and the market They went up to that top to stay right to stay right there Tim and I are coming right back and then the commercial break folks You can get over there and sign up for this workshop Tim and I coming right back Welcome back folks that Tim or Tom O'Brien. We do appreciate your growling prowl on us We have the now about 510 now six up to 24 S&P's are up 75 Okay, Tim All right. Actually, we were talking about I meant to put that swag Indicator in today's List and I forgot to do it. I just did check it as 0.58 and needs to be 0.6 by November 10th, which is a week from tomorrow. I like it Yeah, and so if the market just at least holds here right in this percent Most likely there's a high probability that will trigger and when the swag breath for us indicated triggers That means it a me a term Rally, so that gives you quite a bit of information that in general this market probably gonna work higher all the way to year end it is and What's so cool Tim and folks is that you know if you've been I'm sure you've been following Tim and myself, right? And what had happened folks on the last one is that you know you can see that this is what's so cool About Tim's indicators folks. Okay, you can see He had given you the number prior to it right the bottom line is that well two weeks ago And we hit that thing the bottom line will a number didn't hit well, okay The number didn't hit number didn't hit that that's where patience comes in bottom line. We go a little bit lower S&P comes and we'll see whether it hits this time But it's that the indicators that Tim uses folks. There's no sublutely It's they're not subtle the bottom line is that they're black and white which makes them so cool, okay, so That's great news Tim to start to start to okay All right, so we kind of covered, you know the SPX VIX ratio. Yep, and then now this is the tilt You know the 20 year bond. Yes, the VVIX. Yep, and the VVIX is the VIX of the VIX, right? And why this works? I really don't know really don't care, but I went back in years and it seems to work really well so probably nobody ever tried this but Anyhow, which is so cool. I know when the When this when the S&P's make a lower low I got circles in blue the middle chart is the TLT VVIX ratio and below that okay on the bottom is the SPY and I got a circle in blue in other words. Yeah When the market goes down exactly two things This there's two things on this indicator The top window is the rate of change the 10 period for the TLT VVIX ratio and next window down is the RSI of The TLT VX ratio So I measured the velocity Or the acceleration of this ratio. Yes, and when they so when things really move fast That's really a good sign. In other words, but only I got this idea when the market panics it moves really fast All right, that's when everybody scatters. Well, that's the best time to get in the market, right? And so you have to get to figure out, you know the velocity of the market to see where that bottom is Yes, so I use this on the TLT VIX ratio So anyhow when when these two indicators RLC, RSI of the TLT VIX ratio Both hit and very straight or another on the RSI's below 30 and on their RLC rate of change is below 20 when both those happen You're at a short-term low and all those red lines across the Graph there are times when both those indicators reached bullish levels and you know pretty much they all they all came at low It's all it's so consistent if you watch if you if you're in a car folks Remember that you can go watch this program tonight But if you're watching it, you're gonna see the consistency here is amazing You know, it's really cool Tim is that looking at this last one, right? You can see what a high or high actually the S&P was when we actually got the when you got the signal, right? That's I mean and I can see why I want to the right. Yeah. Yeah, we're gonna Blow that one up and look at it a little bit closer. Yeah, but All right So so anyhow, so that's what one part of this chart is you get short-term lows and all those red lines are Showing with a certain lows then it turns around the mark That's usually not the bottom it has been bottom some cases But no not all the cases then the market takes a balance and it comes back down again breaks new lows on the S&P's That's like a certain below there. Okay the TLT VIX ratio Makes higher lows now. You're looking at a worthwhile low, right something has something as a multi week if not a multi month low, okay, and So and so anyhow That's so that this is kind of a two prong indicator Yes, so if you're playing options, this is good when both those indicators hit below You can have a week or two of a trade up on a long call or something like that, right? But also as you can do a multi week if not a multi month trade because when you get diversions make hotter Lowes on the TLT VIX ratio and the S&P's make a lower low. You got a multi month rally So That's pretty cool, man. No, I get it. I get it and I'm telling you yeah, right All right, so let's go to chart three. Okay So this is a blown up portion of this ratio. I see okay If you go way to the right there, you know, you got a short-term low on the on that on the on the two RLC RSI ratios You got a minor bounce when the last couple of days then the market plummets again to new lows, right? But look what the ratio does TLT VIX ratio, right? It's kind of it's a different than the SPY VIX ratio. This is the tilt, you know that bonds to the So yeah, I mean the VIX of the VIX right information right going in on the close of last Friday of our March 20 or not March, but October 27th. Yes, that you know, I had a couple of different major Diverses is happening here. So I kind of went Kind of leaned on that trade, you know The only comes on Fridays. They make you sweat the whole weekend. I hate that right and if you want to understand that trade folks Just look at this trade for a second. Okay, because this is really cool So I bring this over here. You're talking about the SPY 409 and we're at 430 Okay, because that's that's where this was and maybe okay might have gathered for 10 for 11 Whatever that is, but the bottom line is that that's where Tim went long because that's where that's where I was We're going through these charts and if you want to understand this guess what come come Tuesday Because you know I and I can give you some history with Tim folks. Okay the bottom line first time that He came I brought him to Boston. I think it was 1995 And it changed my life So if you want to understand some ratios and you will you will just as Tim said Yeah, you're gonna be long when people are shot. You're gonna be shot when people are long You know, but the bottom line is that he catches these moves man. So Pretty cool Tim. Yeah, pretty cool, right? Yeah, if you notice, you know, we were talking I got out back in late July. Yes, and This is one of the reasons why if you look at late July period, you know The S&P's are going up and up and that ratio started going down, right? and so that's one of the reasons I got out and Trading short to market in a bull market kind of, you know, you know the market went down I don't eight eight ten percent whatever and I tried a short Or actually I tried a long on a bounce that didn't work out. Well lost two percent went long again And it didn't work out, but anyhow the whole that whole decline. I think mark went down ten percent I was down one percent. It's pretty cool. Take. Yeah, which is better than Begin down ten percent. They're totally yeah, I got the bottom. So, you know, it's been good life's been good Yeah, the music that's right stay right there Tim and I come right back folks Tires every Tuesday and Thursday Tim or joins the Tom O'Brien show to share his unique insight that he's developed over decades of trading Now on Tuesday November 7th from 4 p.m. To 5 30 p.m. Eastern time Tim ord will be hosting his own live webinar Tim's analysis has been outperforming market returns by almost double and his Gold analysis is on track to be a winner as well Tim will be delving into six secret ratios that every trader should know in this webinar Tim will be covering the daily TLT VIX the daily and weekly spy VIX the American Association of Individual Investors Bull bear ratios and the trend panic levels Tim will break down each ratio how it is calculated its importance and how it can help you make bigger returns It's as simple as this learn the ratios trade by them and see your returns That's it. Visit the front page of tfnn.com today to sign up now Tfnn educating investors Welcome back folks Tim ord Tom O'Brien. I do appreciate your growl on a problem when it's out here We have the dial up 5 40 and as a cup 228 s and peas up 78. We're talking about man. Mr. Tim wood We are talking markets right now Okay, Sam All right Actually, I'm looking at the market right now. We're up like one point A little less than 2% and long as I'm looking at the VIX and long as that VIX is down today That bodes well for tomorrow. So nice I like that that VIX will kind of be unchanged or even up a little bit When you get close to that, it'll be a minor role I mean, you'll have some sort of a soul agent at some point, but they will mark four days up in a row That's there's there's a I forgot what you call it But if you're a four days in a row Quantitative analysis if you're a four days a row and mark will be higher 73% of the time within five days if you're a five days in a row and our smiles up Yes mark will be higher within five days 83% of the time. So big numbers So, yeah, this rally look like it, you know make it back up to those previous highs we had in and What October up there, you know 440 range Yeah, so I'm glad I'm glad you brought this up with the VIX to Tim So I just put the VIX up to folks. Okay, so you can see, you know, the VIX is staying low today, okay? We did with just Tim is It long as it's down. Yes, and the fp's up. That's okay. That's what you want exactly It's kind of unchanged or even up today with the market up this much Chances are tomorrow is gonna be a down day, but we don't have that here VIX is down decent If you notice we're below back below 17 again, right? And you know remember we Previous show we talked about when usually the VIX is below 17. Yeah a lot of times you get a trending market Yes, and so we're at 15.70 right now So there's a chance that this market actually could keep just moving higher not every day is gonna be an update But if that big stays below 17, you know going into the weekend Chances are next week will be up to all right now And there's something folks let me Tim just because what I want you to understand folks is this is that okay? So we've been talking about you know the bottom coming in here Tim had just mentioned the aspect of you know And I remember this specifically okay in the July deal that he got out of the market So what I want you to understand is that when you're coming over to this webinar, right? The bottom line is that these these tools folks, okay? Can help you on both ways that that's the bottom line This is not a one-way shot. This is what's so cool about What he does generally, okay? No in general period. That's the bottom line. Okay, you know You know when everyone's and we know how this goes, you know, I think most of us know fundamentally You know how it goes, but it's very tough to just turn around and say that okay, man I'm gonna go longer. I'm gonna go shot. I'm gonna give it a shot without any real analysis behind it Do you know what I'm saying? So, you know pretty cool. So no this Yeah, you'll have you'll you'll have reasons, you know that these charges don't you know, they tell a story and So the interpretation is not hard, you know, the hard part was figure out what charge To look at you know and what ratios to look at to give you the information you need To make wise decisions on your investments exactly Oh, I'd love to be a fly in the wall in your room Like you know because I know for the amount of you know different ratios you have Tim, okay, you know and folks This is real work. Okay. This is you know the bottom line as you can go through a you know I'm sure you know, I'm Tim Tim's giving you these ratios But I'm sure there's probably another hundred of them that he did because I know him so well that you know Didn't give him anything. I mean, I mean, that's yeah, that's the type of work Right. Yeah, see my office. I I'm a visual person. So I don't yeah, I don't to me, I'm at hard time writing and So everything's visual to me so my my my walls are starting to come in on me because I got grass I love her and I put graphs of top graphs. Yeah, I just yeah Scotch tape to the wall. Listen, I'm the exact same way man. I yeah, I I love it because I can't you know, it's so crazy Yeah visuals is where it's at. I have to actually hear something and see something in order to understand it I'd you know, I just do yeah, that's same with me to me. I understand that I can figure that once it gets in front of my face Yes, you know after a while. I think well this thing makes sense or you know, I can't play anything here And so I kind of move on pretty cool once I find something I I try to hone it down put different moving averages on or your bowling group I put all stuff to it. So I thought I came up with these these ratios that I did one and pick out There's a lot of information and stuff. There is a lot of information. Yeah, I know of it Well in particular because you know, it's so cool. It's him, right? I mean, I always watch the bond market, okay, and this is what's so cool see about this TLT and the VIX VI the VIX of the VIX because what happens folks is this bonds run the world interest rate structure runs the world and What he has here is he has interest interest rate structure with a fear gauge. So it's like heaven I mean, it's like that's that's it. Well, it's actually a fear of a fear. Oh, it's even better, right? There was I tried it with the VVIX or VIX just the VIX Yeah, didn't seem about to work well for some reason it works really well with this Okay, and you go back which I could do I go back, you know 15 20 30 years Yes, and yeah, it gives that much information. They're probably they're like 90 or better You know, that's a good indicator to watch it is so If you know if you can start stacking them, I know the second indicator that we covered today I gave up a bullish signal exactly, you know, exactly and And so and also look at weekly that just flip to the the weekly chart, which is the last chart here. Okay, and The top window or the is the weekly SPY's yep as the weekly time frame and I put a bow and your band on it and every time This the S&P's closed below the upper or lower bow and your band Usually the market reverses and it worked a lot better at bottom for some reason So and that's lower bow and your bands to do to deviations away from the norm Okay, good bow and your band. I say what it what it does is stress the market is stretched on a short term basis So if you couldn't go below them Lower bow and your band is really stretched. Yeah a lot of times you get an at-back rally and If you notice that's what happened last Friday Oh, yeah below the mid or the lower bow and your band. Hey, I got so I knew I knew the market was stretched Hey, so yeah, and that that was a another indicator Now you look at the bottom window which is a VIX and that's another reason This is a weekly time frame the VIX didn't confirm it The VIX went sideways and all those little blue areas there's where the market, you know breaks new lows And the VIX goes sideways and this is on a weekly time frame not a daily, right? So there was a huge diverges last Friday. Yeah, so pretty amazing No doubt. Yeah, so so anyhow, that's that's the reason why I'm long So, you know, where's the cell signal that I don't know but I'll get some indicators We'll present them as we go forward with this trade, right, you know when it gets to maybe a danger level I'll have to wait and see what happens, but The way it's going so far right now with four days up, you know, we got a 73% chance mark will be higher And the tomorrow's up we have an 83% chance will be hired in the next five days So well listen man, I appreciate all the work, you know, and once again, congratulations, man I mean cuz just the way you break markets down is just phenomenal, man You have a great weekend Tim a safe weekend and we're gonna talk in on Tuesday and you're gonna be doing that webinar on Tuesday, man All right, I'll talk to you then. Okay, man. Stay right there folks. Come right back