 Very good morning guys Monday 17th of May. I hope you had a fantastic weekend Just quick shout out to the team for releasing now the revamped amplifier live comm Web page and porcel so not going to talk about it too much. Just please do check it out One of the main things here is that it houses all of our best daily and weekly commentary Amongst other things it really houses our community where we have traders from all over the world Interchanging ideas sharing their trades and so on do check it out if you scroll down to the bottom There's basically three tiered levels to get access to this portal of which one is absolutely free They have to put in any card details nothing like that But it gives you a level of access to our private discord room Techniquant analysts charts and some other chat features as well So do just check them out amplify live comm but getting straight into things and let's talk about what's going on this morning And the week ahead and I would say overall Compared to where we were just a short time ago Where people were getting a little bit apprehensive in markets about this idea of really ramping up inflation remember last week Equities generally were selling off through most of last week on this idea that the CPI number Was going to be a blockbuster one It came out higher than expected but Underlying and supporting that inflationary increase were a lot of measures that perhaps aren't sustainable Like the uranium base effects of the energy price Almost collapsed that we had this time last year in addition to used car vehicle sale prices So on and so forth that with more moderate level data that we've seen some other metrics like retail sales Industrial production so on I think just gives validity to the fact the Fed for the moment are adopting the right stance in being cobalative being gradual being cautious about having any of these conversations about timing and also the reaction effect to the inflationary Issue that's that's coming because it is going to pick up But then sticking by their their view that it's going to be transitory so at the moment You can see here down in the bottom right-hand corner Just looking at the US 10 year yields have continued to back off after that initial inflation spike that we saw And so the 10 year has now reversed and we're training above where we were at the point of when that data came out Any further move up would we're just around the R1 in the futures at the moment Probably be keeping an eye then at that R2 at 23 which coincides with that high that we had back on the 11th But also you can see here with the session how you print it back on the force as well So just an area to keep an eye on if you're looking at the US 10 year following the trend up Through that kind of range break from the CPI top from where we were training as well on Friday afternoon Quilliken equity space generally equities recovering and of course This is a bit of an about turn of how last week really started which was quite a lot of weight particularly in those tech names Apple Tesla in particular had a really tough week last week But if we start looking at the NASDAQ here You I guess puts into a bit of context on how this month so far has performed and you can see really last week We had that big shakeout during Monday and Tuesday session to hit the eventual low that was seen down here at 12 9 15 But we've recovered a large portion of that move and even if we just took a fib Just roughly from that move on the weekly Last week. Well if we go from the 7th This was last Friday's Not Friday just gone the week before you can see we've retraced about 50% of that overall move Already. We're at quite a key level here in the NASDAQ. This is looking on a timeframe of 120 and You can see you had that double bottom here from the fourth and the sixth to break down the backup to retest it on The 11th of last week and then we've come at around just a just kind of resting point at that area at the moment So if you just didn't see how he performed if we do continue to recover on the upside I guess the overall bigger targets on the week would be a push back up to that upper bound range that we're in Consolidating through much of mid-late April, which was above really 13 1700 So it'd be quite key to watch at this point in time You know, I really still think that I feel quite calm about the equity movement from last week I think that's validated really by how the charts now set up this morning and you know, if we're looking elsewhere everything plays tune with that view that the market has kind of settled on this inflationary fears and And you've got generally gold breaking out higher equities higher T-notes higher kind of reversion back to that more lucid monetary policy play on the cross asset class move Gold you can see here reopened overnight Kind of popped higher came back down close proximity to that upper bound of the range that we've been in over the last Week or so and it's just pushed on up to the R1 in the futures trading now up 17 bucks 1855 just looking on the daily here I think technically this is quite key area that we've managed to break out of and we trade above at the moment Which was that high that we were printing back in early part of Feb And then that ranged we were just looking out on a tighter timeframe just a moment ago on the previous chart So here then I think it does open up technically now room for a push-up to 1875 That would bring us up to those Horizontal areas that you can see here of resistance that we had back in the beginning of the year in January On the 21st and on the 29th So weekly wise that would be a key level To watch for sure and obviously just above there and then next target would be 1900 if we would continue to that upside moving in Precious metal and gold in the currency market as far as the Dixie is concerned for this morning We are trading up about one tenth of a percent But want to talk about just currencies from a more broader perspective This is one of the things from last week So net non-commercial dollar positions basically were seen adding to their dollar shorts last week And I think you know when you you strip back to kind of equity sensitivity, you know last week What was quite interesting was from a multi asset class point of view Well that equities were trading heavy through pockets of last week the rates market and the effects market much less So now equities we were covering everything is kind of shaping up more to this idea of Strong recovery, but not one that's so strong that's going to require That the nod towards discussions on tightening from the Fed So, you know underlying this is people just increasing their dollar shorts And so I think that's quite telling as well as well as some of the movements We're seeing those other products as I said and so for the major currency pairs I think this this opens up quite an interesting Prospect overall and there's a few things to have a look at here looking at cable firstly cable obviously has had a Really good run of late. We saw that breakout the end of The first week of May and we came back down last week And we've got a really nice technical setup as a nice floor of support now for cable and the pair And that was what we're looking at last week, which was the March April resistance and the breakout that we had last week really nicely on the 13th So last Thursday acting as support then for the push-up from the 40 up to 141 again As we're sitting at around 141 right now, but this week is quite a big week for Sterling I'll just give you a highlight of what the analysts at ING are looking at which is basically four Key things you need to be aware of for trading the pound And the first one is is of course today is the reopening of indoor hospitality So the next meaningful kind of downgrading of the UK lockdown only one more to go However, that in itself is looking fairly precarious PM Johnson said on Friday in a press conference with Chris Witty that they do not Need to delay the reopening for right now, but they're going to accelerate Second doses to over 50s. I believe they're going to reduce that time frame on the second dose to eight weeks from previous 12 UK Health Secretary Hancock has said over the weekend that the government will decide on the 14th of June About what it's going to do on the 21st of June the big point there, of course Is there's a new COVID-19 variant the Indian variant which is seen even more transmissible than the very transmissible Kent variant We had at around Christmas and New Year And that will likely how that performs as we'll track it closely over the coming week or two Whether or not then that final step can go ahead. So one of the key things here then is part one Monday's reopening for indoor hospitality has gone ahead And this obviously will help that more constructive view about the reopening of the UK economy and further economic performance going forward At least for the time being we will yet to see whether we'll conclude that matter with the June 21st Deadline being met or not my thoughts on that at the moment is again The I think Boris and the team have already been setting the stall out to lessen people's expectations of that deadline will be met So it being rolled over. I don't think it's too much of a surprise Economically, I think today's reopening and what that entails will have an economic kind of impact on our economy in a positive sense The other things then we've got this week from the UK are three major kind of data points a four major data points In fact first off is employment So going in chronological order on Tuesday We're going to get the latest jobs data out of the UK now a couple of the interesting things here that IG was saying is that the jobs market has turned a slight corner since the start of the year We've obviously had the furlough scheme being rolled over to shield some of those hardest hit sectors Particularly things like hospitality and leisure But what that basically has has led to is that it's bought time for the economy then to reopen and if you think about things like restaurants at the moment as of today not only outdoor and You know the weather's been shockingly bad But now indoor that's going to then require more employees to come back into the workforce for those really hard hit industries So it's almost like furlough although costly to the government has bought enough time now for now Jobs to become available once again and to be to be filled going forward And so that should be a net kind of positive factor overall going forward over the medium term So while unemployment is still like to rise to around six percent through this period Well, IG analysts are basically suggesting is that well, that's fine This is just part of that transit transition period to reopen and then for businesses to get back to work people to go back to work instead On Wednesday, you then get the inflation figures Couple of things of course the UK inflation number similar to what we had in the US If you think about what happened in April of last year We had a really this was kind of like the price point of view It was the low point of the pandemic remember we went into pretty much full board lockdown in March April everything was closed. We had that catastrophic drop in some energy prices So the rate of headline inflation will likely increase considerably in this week's reading from the previous Kind of like what we saw from the US predominantly buoyed by those energy impact or contributing factor as we know IG note that CPI's like to exceed the Bank of England's target But then this is kind of the point it's transitory and then it fades and so as such then there's no need for the Bank of England To make any noises about acting or reacting in that in that sense And then the final thing is retail sales and PMIs these are going to come in tandem both on Friday morning More timely spending data points to another decent rise in retail sales linked to shops reopening In April if you remember as part of the previous lockdown strategy that we've had The broader economic outlook aided by rising consumer business confidence as the vaccination program offers greater Optimism and durability about the ongoing economic recovery as well So all in all when you put all of these pieces together is you know any uptick that we see short-term employment people will look through generally it's more positive as Certain hearty industry starts to reopen inflation again to coin that phrase But it's seen as yes, it's going to move up But it's people will look through the underlying noise in that data as transitory then retail sales is only going to get better as the economy reopens of Course that the tail risk is the Indian variant of COVID and if that gets worse and starts requiring Lockdown measures so on then we start to reverse that a little bit, but if you think about it if we go from the idea of Dollar short Positionings building up and everything we're talking about predominantly here in the UK is a net positive Go back to the cable chart It definitely feels more favorable on the weekly outlook to be biased to the long side I would say so going from where we are at the moment the weekly high from last week was 141 67 and then the high then year to date was seen up at the 24th of February at 142 45 And then obviously we've got to start going quite a bit further back then and that would help us target up and around a Multi-year high starting to get up to 144 would be the big target I'm not saying we necessarily get there this week, but you know who knows I mean that definitely technically I prefer the long bias here for sterling than I do the short for the time being rather than a talking medium term just Slightly more intraday focus for the euro just looking here on just the technicals at the chart here on on the 30-minute candlestick just this area of Resistance to be had on the 12th and we've respected that overnight in the Asia pack session for we drifted a little lower We've got pivot on the downside didn't quite get there, but just finding a bit of a floor at the moment We're basically unchanged in euro, so just be keeping an eye on that upside level there beyond that point then You've got the range high from the prior prior two weeks in fact up at 121 85, but again Sticking a little bit more favorable at the moment of continuation of just generally a weighted dollar in context of you know Even in Europe vaccination rates are picking up nicely Economies are starting to go through their own respective reopenings. You've got things like Inflation GDP data coming out of the eurozone to have a look out for this week and on that on that fact on the calendar eurozone inflation Hit its highest level since the start of the pandemic last month in March That rise however was largely driven by one-off factors such as the energy prices, which we mentioned a Further rise though in April and that inflation data is June Wednesday from the eurozone Some analysts say the ECB could lead them to start reducing the pace of bond purchases at its June policy meeting So we should see how how that plays out As far as the Other headlines are concerned the other one I just quickly wanted to mention then just to wrap up a few things is is Bitcoin. Let's just bring in I Don't have the actual price of Bitcoin because I just look at futures Intended with all the other products. I'm looking at so here's a here's a look at the daily chart on Bitcoin and You got the all-time high up here, which we were trading at not that long ago this was only literally a month ago or so when we were trading up as high as 66 and a half thousand You then had that Xinjiang blackout which caused that gap down And just weighed on the price from those record levels and then last week it really got quite heavy Because Tesla stopped Bitcoin payments. You had a couple of Musk tweets as well Kind of pivoting out of questioning of Bitcoin on its energy consumption Impact and then it's gapped down again last night as well a tit for tatum Elon couldn't help himself Start responding on Twitter to a couple of the trolls last night And he sent it lower again But he has come out this morning and you can see there's quite large extension on this wick We actually printed 42,000 we're now trading up at 44 nearly 45,000 So we've had a decent turnaround here in a very short term in the intraday environment He has come out and tweeted just a moment ago that To clarify speculation Tesla has not sold any pic Bitcoin and the reason why he's saying that is because over the weekend Musk implied Tesla may sell crypto Currency is one of those cryptic kind of messages that he put out And so at the moment here as far as Bitcoin is concerned the biggest level I guess to the downside Unsurprisingly would be 40,000 that area was the previous all-time high obviously from the Beginning of 2021 which we failed to breach until we got through till the 8th of February and then it really started to pick up and explode in hire And yeah downside, I would definitely be keeping an eye on that this week a breakdown of that price Could be could be interested to see how heavy the selling pressure gets and I Guess if you're looking at the most clear as technical point You're kind of looking down to these these double bottoms then going back to 27,000 And even then even further still back to them when we were breaching 20k was the big ones But I'm certainly not calling those levels right now, but You wouldn't put it past a product like Bitcoin to see that type of excessive volatility But let's see Otherwise quick look at the calendar for the US side of things For the US kind is pretty light actually this week There's not a great deal going on April housing starts new home sales are going to come out tomorrow on Tuesday The highlight probably is going to be the FMC minutes. We'll get those on Wednesday not really expecting a great deal of reaction to that The key takeaway from pals press conference when they had that actual meeting Was that now it's not the time to talk about tapering and just given the context of where the markets heads are at at the moment Having stabilized for any of that kind of inflation yield Movement that we had that was spooking markets beginning of last week I think that that has now we've moved on from that point. So the minutes Yeah, perhaps worse just tuning in on Wednesday to have a look at I would be expecting any fireworks A great deal of movement for that to be a major event for the week if I'm being quite quite honest A few other final points I just wanted to mention on an equity side of things was Maybe just keep an eye out on Netflix shares at the market open later on today in the US AT&T is said to be Near a deal to create a hundred fifty billion dollar streaming giant with discovery Combining its content unit warner media with their rival Discovery so be sure to see if that has any translation over to some of those streaming services and then Overnight as well. Just so you're aware you do have some Chinese data I don't really think this is impacting the open as far as Europe is concerned But just so you're aware industrial production in China overnight year-on-year for April 9.8% that was in line with expectations The retail sales year-on-year at seventeen point seven percent against expected twenty four point nine percent So a little bit soft on the retail sales side So while China's exporters enjoying generally strong demand and global global supply chain bottlenecks and rising raw Material prices are weighing slightly on production is what some of the analysts were saying at the time of release from the overnight session all right final chart Final few charts just to have a quick look at one was the DAX Because I did get a question about this this morning So, yeah, if you're just looking at I know my head in the corner of the video is blocking it slightly The DAX is at the top end of this this kind of Relative range we've been in over recent weeks So you can see here you've got a high that we had this time last week in fact And then if you move just above that you go start going to mid-April a little bit higher, but on the Daily chart, you know really nice technical reaction to The fib 382 from the low that we printed back on the 26th of Feb To the high that we had on the 16th of April and we come back down We've had it's just a really nice technical entry for any more kind of swing medium-term traders You've got that high on the 18th Came down to that level perfectly to the tick pretty much on that fib and then we've pushed back up So now on the upside of course just keeping an eye on that range high if we get any break out But again, I'd want to be seeing Probably further continued recovery in the lights of those US indices as well continue to reverse course of some of the same pressure But you can see here the outperformance if you like if anything on the recovery of the DAX Which is already more than taken back any of that same pressure is right back up here again testing these these record levels once more Okay with that kind of finish let you guys go on with the day any questions at all Let me know leave a comment Don't forget to like and subscribe and check out amplify live.com. Hopefully I'll see you as part of the community Online all right. Have a good week guys