 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is day number three of our deep dive into Super Bowl 57 Breaking down all angles of the Eagles and the Chiefs today We are talking about matchups the Chiefs offense versus the Eagles defense Eagles offense versus the Chiefs defense by Talking to the matchup master herself Pamela Maldonado breaking down her read on all sides of this game and getting her favorite bets For Super Bowl 57 this is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by Pamela Maldonado Check her out on Twitter at Pamela M 35. She's a betting analyst over at Yahoo Pamela Happy Wednesday of Super Bowl week to you. How you doing today? I'm doing wonderful Last week Austin was hit with an ice storm didn't have power This week we do have power and it's the week of Super Bowl So I can't complain like for me at least like the week before is when I do my prep And I get ready and stuff like that So like I feel like not having that week on top of like how terrible it is like my human perspective not have power for that Long and how many people that impacts but like my prep perspective. I feel like you'd be playing catch-up this whole week then Everybody has an extra five days ahead of me. They had the entire week last week I did all of my Super Bowl homework Monday and Tuesday morning. So I'm caught up Not only are you like trying to get your house back in order trying to like get your phone charged again and stuff like that but also having to do Seven days of prep in a two-day window Grocery shopping has been fun The shelves are kind of empty because of the no-power outage from last week Yeah, you're trying to balance life. You're trying to balance work But hey, that's what makes things interesting, right? Let's look at it that way. We'll go with that That's it. I love that viewpoints. I would not have the vantage point I just be mad at the world right now So kudos to you for not being me in that regard But I'm glad things got back that is a lot to deal with that is just just a massive like Massive bummer for an entire city to deal with that for so long. It's tough So I'm glad things are gonna be back to order there now, but Pamela while we have you here I didn't want to ask you a question because My wife and I are big into Formula one drive to survive But two of the sports you cover closely have Netflix documentaries either out or coming out you got full swing coming out soon break point is out for tennis and I'm more of a golf person than a tennis person But if I if you were me in pitching me on one of these shows Which one do you think I should go to once I have more time post Super Bowl tennis? Okay I'm gonna try to sell you on it It's just I am obsessed with the game and now they've added the storylines to make you fall in love with the players Yeah, that's what the difference is and I'm sure it's gonna be just as good when it comes with the PGA when they're released that one But I actually haven't seen the formula one documentary now I feel like I need to just because of how good the tennis one has been Yeah, if you love the game of tennis now, here's your opportunity to fall in love with the players Okay, that's good that I've got my formula one hat on right now for Valtteri Bota So you like he has a full scene in in drive to survive where he's like Naked in a sauna. So like, you know, if you need like whatever it's got sex appeal. It's got everything, you know You're good to go. Whatever you need for that. It's totally there But we'll check out the the breakpoint one to see how that goes. I'm gonna watch the golf one too It's been great. It has been great. I've only seen the first two episodes, but I am locked into them Okay, catch up when now that my power is back. I'll be able to catch up on some of those episodes Well, that's good. We didn't get to talk the Phoenix open on yesterday show because we didn't have a golf show for this week Anything you're any guys you're on for the WM Phoenix open this week Um, I really do love first-round leader bets and I took Rory McElroy He has been in the 2022 season McElroy was really good to me in first-round leader bets when you have these strong field events Of course that is let's be honest TPC courses aren't the most difficult So he has the most well-rounded all-around complete game in my opinion. He's great off the tee He's great with his iron shots. He's one heck of a short game player. He's coming off a win in Dubai So Rory McElroy for me, you're getting a lot better odds at 18 to 1 for a first-round leader bet Compared to his 8 to 1 to win as an outright So I took him as a first-round leader and if he doesn't win the first round I'm probably gonna fire him to win the second round and then potentially you can find Better odds on him to win as an outright after round one or round two love it Rory versus Rom is like a poster style match-up for this weekend So I'm excited. Yeah, we get the we get a full weekend of good good sports We're gonna talk about the finisher on all that Super Bowl 57 breakdown Pamela's thoughts on all that here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We had JJ Zachary son on yesterday breaking down his favorite player props for this game Joe Strauss he broke down all the weird props like halftime show stuff Anthem singer stuff Joe has that covered because I know nothing about it Those are up on the covering the spread podcast feed now and over on the fans of YouTube page Make sure you're subscribed to get those right as they are posted get a piece of ten a million dollars in bonus bets with Fandals kick of destiny all you have to do is place a five dollar bet on Super Bowl 57 And if Gronk kicks a fuel goal live during the game You'll get a piece of ten a million dollars in bonus bets doesn't matter new to Fandal already have an account Gronk kick you win. It's as simple as that So don't miss out on the kick of destiny on Fandal America's number one sportsbook Make every moment more a Fandal official sportsbook partner on the NFL must be 21 plus in select states for minimum $5 wager acquired award may vary minimum $5 projected max 20 dollars bonus award Issued is not with trouble bonus bets expire in seven days all Participants are eligible for the bonus award restrictions apply see full terms at fandal.com slash sportsbook gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandal.com slash rg in Arizona 100 next step protects next step to 5 3 3 4 2 In Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccp g dot or excess chat in Indiana 109 with it in Kansas and Wyoming 100 5 2 2 4700 we're in KS Kansas KS gambling health comm Louisiana one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in a Maryland empty gambling health org in West Virginia one 800 gambler net or in New York one eight seven seven eight hope and why or text hope and why Now we're gonna dig into specific matchups here this second in a second family But I want to get your overall view of this game right now We've got the Eagles as one at point favorites of fangirl sports book any of the traditional market bets stand out to you for this game Well when we're first looking at what this matchup is people are always just gonna look too straight to the quarterbacks It's gonna be Patrick my home's Jalen Hertz, but for me it really is strength of schedule versus strength of schedule You know me I like to look for strength versus weakness And I just feel like there's a huge discrepancy when you're looking at strength of schedule The Eagles have had a one hell of an easy path to the Super Bowl And I'm not gonna discredit them because you are given the schedule that you work with and they've done what they're supposed to do Which is destroy all of these cupcake opponents, but they've had six games the Eagles all season inside Facing defenses inside the top ten for defense DVOA San Francisco They almost these are running back as a quarterback So kind of throw that out the window the Saints when they played against the Saints that was good But Jalen Hertz was out of that game they played Dallas twice But once was with Gardner Mincio as a quarterback The other was with Cooper rush as the Cowboys quarterback and then they faced Washington twice Which one of those was a loss and the office since that they played they only face the Eagles had faced only one the entire season One note were to the quarterback and that was Aaron Rodgers has Aaron Rodgers done anything this season to say that he has Been the elite quarterback that we're used to seeing from him. I said it again You work with the schedule that you get but the chiefs path I in my opinion has just been far more difficult looking at the slate of opponents that they have faced You're talking about quarterbacks in Joe Burrow Justin Herbert Trevor Lawrence Josh Allen Tom Brady It is just a different level of competition different level of quarterbacks that they have faced and They faced good defenses the chiefs against the Broncos the Rams the Titans the Niners So it's just been in my opinion a much more difficult slate of opponents for me It says that the chiefs are ready and the Eagles not gonna say that they're sleeping because it's a Super Bowl Right, but it's just a level of preparedness that mindset coming into this one of these teams is gonna be far more prepared than the other I'd agree that and I think that that's why I had the chiefs money line It's currently plus 104 at Fandle sportsbook. I took it a plus 110 Is it enough of an edge for you in that regard? We think the chiefs are undervalued in that in that market. Do you want the money line there? Do you want the points or is it more so saying if you were to bet it you would lean towards the chiefs? No, I love the chiefs, but Caveat, I have I'm probably on the season the complete season. I'm probably like one and eight betting against the Eagles Instead finding ways to bet on the chiefs without having to put on their money line And one way that you can do that is Patrick Holmes doing the MVP because if the chiefs the chief's money line right now Is plus 105, but he's plus 135 to win the MVP So if the chiefs win it is because my homes is doing the things that he's supposed to do these weird sidearm passes Just like these super out-of-the-box thinking type of throws that no other quarterback physically cannot do Including Jalen hurts himself as good as he's been this season. We are still talking about my homes So if they get it done on that ankle that hopefully right now is recovering then it's gonna be My home's for MVP. So that's one way to bet the chiefs without betting the chiefs And I think that that makes a lot of sense and I've also lost money against the Eagles this year. I had I had the 49ers in that game You know, they had that one touchdown drive with Josh Johnson and there gave me like some hope I wish it hadn't honestly I would have been a lot better off if they hadn't done that luckily the second half It was dust so that helped but you did ask what about traditional markets that I do like So looking at that I do love the under in this matchup Okay, now shop around because you can find 51 Which is the number that I grabbed in some spots It's sitting at 50 and a half, but this is all about time of possession. What have we seen from the chiefs? We know that Patrick Mahomes, we know the Eagles like to work fast But the chiefs offense they know and they know how they know when and how to slow things down And you've seen it in the postseason the chiefs that won the time of possession in both matchups against the Jaguars And the bangles 35 minutes to 25 and then 32 minutes to 27 Respectively, but the chiefs offense in last season they were top five for deep throws But that's also because they had players like Tyree kill now that they no longer have that weapon at their disposal They've become now switched to top 10 in throws between 1 to 9 air yards Well, what does that create opportunities for short underneath passes extending the plays draining the clock Now you've seen Mahomes in the put especially in the postseason have these long duration six minute drives There's nothing better for an under than a six minute drive that ends in a field goal That's exactly what the chiefs have been doing They've had ten scoring drives in the postseason seven of those were at minimum four and a half minutes So I love the under on 51. Yeah, and 51 is a key number. So if you get a push in 51 That's a huge edge to get so it's 15 a half a fandal But if you can get 51 elsewhere and get that key number get a push there that makes a huge difference So smart as always to shop around there. Okay now there when we first had you want to talk college football I was impressed with like your depth of knowledge in terms of which matchups are mismatches and what that means I think that's the key part is what that means We know that like we can spot mismatches, but you're good at identifying how to leverage that so let's talk about both sides of all you're starting off with the Eagles offense against the chiefs defense and There's been a lot of discussion obviously around the Eagles rushing offense and the chiefs rushing defense But when you look at this matchup, is that the key thing you focus on is there other stuff that stands out to you? What's the focal point for you when the Eagles offense is on the field when you look at Typical games in the regular season. It is a lot easier to target strength versus weakness right now when it's the Super Bowl and you have a coach like Andy Reed and Siriani now it becomes strength versus strength and so you're kind of having to decipher Which strength is just a little bit better than the other teams and for me This is gonna be a prop that I love looking at strength versus strength is the Eagles under one and a half rushing touchdowns The Eagles lead the NFL in most rushing scores with 32 on the season But now you're talking about the strength of the chiefs defense They are fourth best in the limiting rushing opponent rushing touchdowns allowed But they're actually second worst in passing scores allowed. That is a huge discrepancy So I know that we love the Eagles as a rush rush heavy offense. We've seen Jaylin Hertz rushing in himself I believe that the Eagles are going to have a lot more difficulty on the ground this time around Are gonna have to be forced to throwing it in the air So I love the Eagles under one and a half rushing touchdowns this season The chiefs defense has given up a total of five total rushing scores to opponents top running backs And two of which came from Derek Henry now I love me some Jaylin Hertz, but he ain't no Derek Henry Dethrone the keen over here and in the six games There have been only six games with the defense for there have only been six games where the Eagles have faced a defense top 10 for rushing touchdowns allowed in five of those six the Eagles scored just one rushing score So I love the under on one and a half rushing scores for the Eagles So it's it's situation where you respect the Eagles rushing offense But a it's a big number and b the chiefs are also good in that department So it makes sense that you're you know You're looking for strength versus strength and kind of deciding where the books may be overestimating the team's strength Potentially is that the way you're kind of viewing it? Exactly, and you're also considering other factors like Red zone defense. I'm seeing how good the chiefs defense is that once you get down field Right, maybe forcing more field goals and then touchdowns if Jaylin Hertz is gonna have to pass the ball It's his shoulder a hundred percent healthy, right? There's a potential here and then the chiefs have been really good with interceptions There's a potential that you can end up picking one off into the red into the end zone So there's a lot of factors that play into this and Jaylin Hertz as good. He is on the ground They've hooded the chiefs get to practice with every day a mobile quarterback just as well So I believe that they can be prepared for somebody like a Jaylin Hertz Yeah, and it's situation to where this whole two weeks We've been talking about oh the Eagles Russia offense Eagles Russia offense Well sportsbooks know that and they're gonna account for that so you're not gonna catch them sleeping there by any means So I think that makes sense under one and a half rushing touchdowns the Eagles where Pamela is going there Okay, talk about the other side here. We got the chiefs offense against the Eagles defense Again, it is strength on strength here So what do you see within this individual matchup when the chiefs offense is on the field now? I do really like you think my homes you see the chiefs and you think passing So let me look to the run game where everybody else is looking left. I'm looking right So for me, I really love the chiefs running back Isaiah Pacheco over 49 and a half rushing yards. You have my homes So why do you need a run? That's always gonna be the question But it's because it really is a good matchup for the team for the chiefs run game Not only is Pacheco finding open lanes, but he's avoiding backfield contact and that's huge for this matchup He's been contacted behind the line in scrimmage at the league's lowest rate and the legal defense as good of a defense as it's been They're 18 than backfield contact rate or 24th and rated allowed Allowing a three plus yards before contact And if you look at the 19 games that the Eagles have faced have played in the Philadelphia defense They have allowed RB won over this total in 14 games Including 84 to Christian McCaffrey in the conference championship and Pacheco He is seeing now over 30% of the snap share. I believe that he gets it here. I really really love Pacheco He's kind of developing not only into this running back But now they're utilizing him in the running in the passing game as well So you could also consider over 69 and a half rushing plus receiving because we know he had 59 receiving yards against the bangles in the AFC championship game and we still see that the chiefs wide receivers kind of still dealing with injuries So potentially he's gonna be utilized more here in the passing game Nicole Hardman has already been rolled out Juju and Tony They're both still on the injury list and you know that Andy Reed he has a play calling genius So he's gonna use all options available So I love Pacheco potentially having a huge game both on the ground and in the passing game So a question for you. Is it huge enough where I can justify Scrolling over the MVP market as a Pacheco is 50 to 1 I've been trying to sell people on this all week and no one has taken the bait yet I agree with your thought process where his role increased in the conference championship He played well to justify that and he's been getting a lot of yardage to begin with also he returns kicks and you think about like defining moments in Super Bowls kickoff return touchdown could be one of those so I Think that your market is smarter taking the rushing yardage problem. I want to say that Yeah, would you consider Pacheco 50 to 1 MVP or is that is that too much of a reach for you to justify? 50 to 1. Okay. First off. This is the Super Bowl fire on everything Once a year you're getting 50 to 1 odds Even if it doesn't hit put what five ten dollars on it just for just to have an additional ticket Yeah, and you're now rooting actively for a chief's players, especially if you do like the chiefs 100% I would put that on still. I like my homes for the MVP though I think that that's the better bet that it's definitely the better bet, but we're on hinged here, you know for the Super Bowl So that's where I will go. Yeah, it hasn't moved and I'm like maybe I'm the dumb one here Like it hasn't shortened from 50 and I'm like, you know what I bet a lot worse things in the PGA. Oh, yeah So for something like this in the in for the MVP role in a once in a season once a year event Yep, you take it. I mean, I bet NASCAR. It's same thing. I made a lot of dumb bets in my life So this doesn't bother me at all Russian table tennis during COVID then you can do 50 to 1 on an MVP for a for truly a valuable player I never got that far It was considered I'll put it that way for sure I recall like I did you play my place like Madden streams and stuff like that So it got dark, but not quite Russian table tennis dark as Okay, let's go back to the props here. Are there any other props you you like for this game? You've already talked about a couple we talked about the the under for this game the Eagles rushing Touchdowns under Pacheco as well anything else you like in the prop department here. I really love defensive props So I love the defense here for the Chiefs here I think it's super underrated because it's the Eagles defense and they're supposedly the best defense in the league The Chiefs is not getting enough love So I love Jalen Hurts to throw an interception at plus money plus 1 15 You're gonna see that the you're gonna see the cheat like I mentioned that Eagles are gonna get all the respect But it's gonna be the Chiefs that really does show out here. I've talked about a little statement. I think the team let me rephrase this Jalen Hurts Patrick Mahomes those are gonna be the two story lines that you're going to see a lot I think the one that is not at all getting any enough attention is the defensive coordinator for the Chiefs in Steve Spagnola This is his fifth Super Bowl appearance So please tell me who on the coaching staff for either side has more postseason experience than he does Everything is thinking Mahomes. Everyone is thinking Mahomes and Hurts I'm thinking Andy Reid and Spagnola against Iriani if you can eliminate that run-pass option Make the Eagles limit them from running the ball Bottle up the run game force the Philadelphia offense to catch from the outside force Hurts to beat you in the air That is where the defense is going to come and that's where the difference is going to come into play And that's where the potential for Jalen Hurts to throw an interception because the Chiefs defense has stepped up This in the second half of the season and the Eagles defense as much love as they received They've actually dropped off and let me tell you how in the first 10 games of the season The Chiefs have forced only five interceptions in the first 10 games The Eagles forced 13 in the second half of the season This is Spagnola doing his thing working his magic finding the plugs The Chiefs have forced nine interceptions in the last nine games Including three picks from Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence in the postseason in the Eagles last nine games only five Interceptions and that's because two were from Aaron Rodgers who we already talked about It's kind of like oh what happened in and one was from Dak Prescott who leads the league in the most interceptions Of quarterbacks. So it's a tale of two stories. Yes, the Eagles lead in interceptions percentage for opponents But not in the second half of the season either they're getting too comfortable or it's the Chiefs defense Just Steve Spagnola doing his magic and trying to find what is the adjustments needed need to be made I really love Jalen Hurts to throw an interception here, especially that it's at plus money Well, and you think about the Chiefs defense They're so young it makes sense They would struggle to start and then improve as a year goes along because they get those like later round rookies ramped up Get them integrated with the defense and it makes sense. They get better as a year goes along now question for you How many times do you think this year? Jalen Hurts has thrown a pass while trailing in the second half including postseason. How many total pass attempts in those situations? Is it a zero for both Mahomes and so it's it's 22 for for Hurts the entire year But that means every single game 22 total pass attempts while trailing which means he hasn't been a lot of adverse situations Right exactly a gardener Minch who actually had more which tells you a Jalen Hurts is really freaking good But be they haven't been in these bad situations very often which is where you get picked Right. We that's how you get picks is when you're you're you're trailing You know the offense gonna throw stuff like that and we haven't seen the Eagles in that spot yet So does he have gumption to keep it together keep his head on straight right get overwhelmed now force these pressure Situations and then yeah against one of the best I'm gonna say this is one of the best defenses in the chiefs super underrated undervalued because it's a lot of young talent So you're not gonna get the recognition because they're not in big names yet And they're very aggressive too and like aggression can lead to big plays for AJ Brown Devante Smith It can also lead to picks. So I think that getting plus 115 over one pick, you know to throw one pick I think that that makes a lot of sense for Devante Smith is not always gonna get away with one-handed catches Or non catches depending on Exactly, okay, we talked about the weird stuff with Joe So we've got all that covered anything else you like for this if you've got some weird anthem bets Feel free to dump them here, but anything else you like Right. Yeah Once a year. So I want to do first touchdown It's super hard to predict a touchdown and who's gonna get it But I want to go with first touchdown and I'm going with Patrick Mahomes at 28 to 1 Love all the love is going to Jaylen Hertz because of how fast the Eagles start on offense and Jaylen Hertz likes to run it in I've already talked about how I like the chiefs to limit that run game So I'm gonna go with Patrick Mahomes 28 to 1 for a first touchdown He's had two weeks to rest his ankle and the Eagles defense is 20 seconds against rushing touchdowns allowed versus top 10 against Passing touchdowns allowed the Eagles have not faced the entire season a mobile quarterback But they did allow the New York Giants Quarterbacks and I say quarterbacks because it wasn't it was Daniel Jones plus the backups in that week 18 matchup To rush one in and we know that the Giants are all about that run game and Mahomes in the 2019 Super Bowl Against the 49ers He was the first rushing scored touchdown of the game and he's had for the season against I would say comparable defenses and so Mahomes you can find him at plus 375 for any time touchdown I would probably put that as well As kind of like a two-bet, but 28 to 1 for a first touchdown. I'm in love with that I had no idea Davis web had a rushing touchdown that game week 18. He did he had six rushes for 41 yards in a touch That's Like Davis web or like Mahomes hopping on one leg like he was in the Jags game Probably gonna outrun Davis web like my home isn't like crazy fast, but he's like he's he's shifting like I think this is the one area Like I will I thought we get Mahomes discounted in the rushing yardage department because of the injury. We're not it's 19 and a half That makes sense But this is the one area where you are getting a bit of a discount still because Mahomes typically is around 20 to 1 for a first Touchdown, it's like a neutral script. We're getting a 28. That's pretty good. So I think that makes a lot of sense, too Exactly, and it's and it's end of read and I just love his play calling abilities And if you get down in the end zone and that's what it is with Matt pet with Mahomes They can have all of these RPO options and they're gonna have Designed runs, but then he's gonna just like scramble out of the pocket season opening He's gonna jet for it now whether he gets there or not That's a look at the draw, but that's what Mahomes is able to do He's able to create situations where none exists, especially when you're down in the goal line I'm gonna trust him every time. I mean in the 49er Super Bowl the first one He scored on an option play like they might not run that but like they'll get weird They're more than happy to get weird So I think that that that makes a lot of sense and tell me that Andy Reed is not calling up something because he knows Everybody knows the world knows right how strong of an offense the Eagles have in the first half of games Tell me that Andy Reed is not gonna be like, all right I see what y'all are doing now. I'm gonna do it better. Yep. Canaries Tony pass attempt. I think that's that's coming I think you know, we've got all these like weird Andy Reed things going through my head. So Prop bet option it's two and a half plus 154. Oh receiving touchdown. Okay The Philly special bet It's always in play. Yeah, then we saw Andy Reed What was it? What game was it a couple? It was week 17 week 16 Where they did that ring around the posie I mean anything can happen it's a Super Bowl as much it is about winning the game It's also about entertainment and they you can be entertaining and still win. That was the Andy Reed Like we're gonna make them focus on this for five minutes play like he's just like Well, that is awesome my home's first touchdown 28 to 1 I think that is a fun one as well. That is all that we have here for today Pamela I want to thank you once again for swinging by I know that again last week was hectic I appreciate you still making time to come on even though it is one of the more fun golf weeks of the year as well Good luck to you with betting the Phoenix open. Good luck betting Super Bowl But good luck betting tennis is that so rolling around as well and I appreciate it and we'll talk to you again soon Go luck with your bets and enjoy the Super Bowl. Alrighty to check out Pamela on Twitter at Pamela M35 Check her out over at Yahoo as well. I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis You can find covering the spread wherever you get your podcast tomorrow Ryan Williams is with us to break down the game overall traditional markets for Eagles versus cheats This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network