 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning markets kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien. How many of you live from TFNN Monday morning just after 9 a.m. Eastern Time as we kick things off? You've got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading, and right now you're looking at markets pulling back from quite the month that we had in July. Just for a moment, I'm going to throw things on a monthly chart just to illustrate the move we had. Now I got some drawings on there, but I mean, check out the run, folks. You're talking about a low in July of 37.23. You're talking about a high basically closing at those highs. We closed within 11.5 points to be exact. We closed within almost 10 points of the high of the month, and you're talking about closing 400 points off of the lows of the month that we had. Just keep it in context, man. That's about 10%, more than a 10%. 11%, 12% up from where we were at the lows just of July. Market bouncing for the first time in a while, but man, we'll see where we go from here. A lot of optimism to deliver from last week, and today we can kick things off, giving back some of those gains. S&Ps right now, you're negative by about 7.10%. You check out the acceleration, right? Where are we back to? We're almost right back to the open. We're right back to the first 15 minutes of trading on Friday, folks. 4100 is the mark. 4105, you make it as high as 4144. NASDAQ 100, we're negative by about 71 points. That's about half a percent. You got the Dow off about half a percent as well, 32,660. The Russell, off by 14 points. Russell had quite a run last week as well. Bitcoin, holding up relatively well. You almost got a 25,000 print on Bitcoin last week. Right now we're trading at 23,160. You jump over to Crude. Look at that acceleration, man. Friday from 101.88 to Crude at 94.07. Folks, we got a treat. We're going to be talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad, at 40 past the hour today, because today is the last day that you can save 25% off the Tiger Forex Report, folks. We're doing this for the entire month of July through August 1st. Today's the last day. Teddy's coming on. Absolutely great day to talk to him anyway. You got some real action in Crude right now. We got some action in the Dollar Index. We'll jump over, so we'll talk to Teddy at 40 past the hour, and we'll still talk to him on Wednesday as well this week. We get double duty from our man, Teddy Kegstad. Gold contract catching a bid this morning up to 1792. We give it back a little bit, a little bit of volatility on that gold contract right now. You get the silver contract positive as well. We're as high as 2051, and we jump to the all-important notes and bonds. You get the 10-year this morning up three ticks. 121.08, the 30-year right now. Negative by eight ticks. You see the acceleration, though. I mean, look at what we have going on, folks. Just in the last 15 minutes, 30-year, and the moves are just amazing. Yeah, the 30-year go from 143.20, okay? I mean, look at these bars. These are 15-minute bars, and you're talking about 19 ticks in the bar, and then we get it all back. We're back to 143.24. You take a look at the 10-year of the volatility. These moves are not usually the case, folks. I know it seems like that's the case in terms of the moves that we're getting right now, but you're talking about a 10-year that just dives down. What are we talking about? Like 12 ticks and then gets it all back within an hour. Those are some pretty big moves ordinarily, but right now, the 10-year yield, 2.64%. 2.64%. Remember when we were pushing 3.5%? 2.64% on the 10-year, and we jump over to the VIX. Quite a reprieve last week. We make it to 21.21 on the finish last week. That low, I mean, you talk about a slide, folks. From the middle of June, we had six weeks there, okay? Some dicey action coming into a pretty lofty level. We're optimism, very high right now, when we are still in the thick of a lot of volatility with some pretty staggering CPI numbers. We get non-farm payrolls this week on Friday. We get CPI data next week, so it comes at us pretty quickly. It just doesn't stop, along with many companies with earnings. We'll go into those later in the week as well. But checking out the S&Ps real quick. I was looking at this chart on Friday, right? I mean, we're blowing through the 3.8.2 of the entire move lower. The one thing here is that, you know, when we got to that 3.8.2, that was also correlating to the highs we had back in May. I mean, the area you got to get through here, folks, is 3,200, right? We're going to have a lot ahead when to 3,200, man, right? Let alone if you ever get up to 4,300, you get up to 4,300. You're talking about January prices, folks. January prices, yeah, it's 500 points off the high. But in the context of where we've come from, where we've been, and how long that bull run took us to 4,808, you're talking about a market that now sits within 700 points of the all-time highs. On the Dow, you get over it. The Dow's sitting right at that 3.8.2. We back things up on a three-year weekly to see the entire run higher from COVID. Excuse me, NASDAQ, not the Dow, the NASDAQ. Yeah, excuse me, that's the 3.8.2. No, this thing hasn't bounced as much. So this is at the 3.8.2 pullback. What I've been checking out is where have we bounced to, okay? So let's put this back on a daily. And from basically the beginning of the year when the run started, because these markets are all catching quite a bounce. But I mean, check it out. The NASDAQ 100 hasn't even bounced to the 3.8.2. You're still about 250 points away from that price level, 13,174, and that price level in the NASDAQ is going to run you right into the lows we had from March. Now we jump to the Dow. Okay, and on the Dow, let's take this off here. I mean, it's pretty remarkable that basically the highs are almost the first of the year. The Dow blown past that 3.8.2 level, inching towards the 50%, 50% of the Dow be 33,211. So again, S&Ps just over the 3.8.2, but all of them are going to bump in. Let's see, so S&Ps in March, you're going to bump into that area right kind of where we closed on Friday. You know, 4,100 to 4,200 is a tough zone in the S&P, man. You're bumping up against the highs that we had in early June. You're bumping up against the lows that we had in early March. And you're also bumping up against this area of consolidation that we had from basically April 22nd to May 6th when we started going lower yet again. That's going to be an area that's going to be a tough one to get through. 4,200. You should be very happy if you're a bull with 4,200 in this market considering the economic numbers that continue to print from inflation, et cetera. NASDAQ, not quite up to that level, but you see it. I mean, we did get above this area in June on the NASDAQ, which was remarkable to say the least. I thought that was going to be a little headwind, and maybe it is. It's an art not a science, folks. We're pretty close to that level. The highs on that level were June 3rd at 12,945. We're already under that level. Is that right? Yes, and we closed there at 12,000. Excuse me. Yeah, that's right. So you're talking about a high of 12,945. Is that right? Seems like that bar is not... Yeah, it is 12,945. We're already under that level. We did get above there. NASDAQ, 13,000 we got up to. So you got just above it. We're already back under it in the NASDAQ. We'll see where we go from there. Let's check out some of the fang stocks as we got a minute coming into the break right now. Amazon, quite a week of earnings last week in terms of they come out, they trade higher, they close the gap Amazon had from April. Now, Amazon, you're bumping into an area of support turning into potential resistance here. You got the lows from January. You get the lows from whether it's February, the lows of March. You also got the gap area that this just closed from April. We were as low as 101 on a few occasions, folks. So Amazon, you're up 35%. You're up 30% on Amazon prices from whether you were in May, June, June, and July. We made it as low, folks, July, 106. And we're trading this morning at 135 for Amazon. Might need a little bit of consolidation area here as you bump into an area that's struggled. An area of support, as we say, turning into resistance potentially at about 140. And we jump over to Apple shares this morning. Apple trading lower a little bit. Stay tuned, folks. We come right back. Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia, the Mount Todd Gold Project. Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study, resulting in a 7 million-ounce gold reserve. 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You see the acceleration we've got going on right now, inching towards that 4100 mark. In terms of Europe right now, you have the DAX, basically flat, the FTSE, barely in the green, CACAROL, we'll call it flat as well, Asia Positive Territory, Nikkei up about 710th percent, Shanghai up about 210th percent, Hangsang we'll call it flat as well. All right, jumping around to a couple of articles in terms of what we're going to talk about here. Where do we kick things off, let's say. Well, we'll kick it off with a little opinion piece on Bloomberg because I think it makes you think rightfully so, and I don't agree with everything, anything. Mohamed Al-Aryan, pretty notable opinion right over Bloomberg, and I'm just talking about the data he puts out, folks. The fundamental data, okay, because it's very important to process what we just got here. We just got the market recoiling, thinking that Fed has recalibrated, maybe they'll pause, right? Maybe the hikes won't be as severe as maybe we're thinking, there was a real worry that the Fed was going to telegraph that they're going to bring it with 75 basis points or 50 basis points until the market proves that inflation is over, something like that. That is not what the chairman said of the Federal Reserve during his press conference last week. Nonetheless, the economic data is pretty harsh and all the chairman really said was that they're going to be data dependent. I talked to one of the program, I was talking about it with my dad last week as well, saying, there's really no other real way if he's being authentic to forecast. There is so much up in the air before their next meeting, folks. If they came out with guidance, yes, the market would have paid attention because that's where their head is, they should pay attention. But it's a big fundamental conversation we're having right now, but you have to understand that I think the market is too excited in the short term over the prospect that you have the Federal Reserve that is not intent on hiking until they see the data. But nonetheless, folks, you've got to recognize that the data might force their hand. And if you look at the data, the data, it's pretty harsh right now. I mean, July's data was where we got. Now, number one, we got a return of 12%. He goes over some of the returns that we got. 12% in the NASDAQ Composite Index in the month of July. And that same month, we got 9.1% inflation as measured by the CPI. We get CPI next week. We got negative GDP growth, 0.9% for the second quarter. We got a drop in real incomes and diminished household savings. We did have company after company warning of inflation. We saw some write downs in terms of expectations for those numbers as well. All right. And they get into some. One of the other articles in the earnings season, yes. I'm going to tie these two together, okay? Because he talks about the earnings revisions. Downgrades outnumber upgrades by the most since 2020. Now, there's almost data out there for everybody, folks, which is why this is such a tough market right now. No matter what data we get, it seems like it allows for many narratives to be vindicated with that data. This is one example, right? Downgrades outnumber upgrades by the most since 2020. But if you want to play the other side of that, 52% the rate of earnings that beat. Is that right? Yes. No, excuse me. 56% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings so far. And more than half have beaten estimates. Okay, so yeah, 52% of companies have beat estimates of the 56 they've reported. So we're just halfway through, just more than halfway through earnings season, okay? 52% have beat earnings above the long-term average of 47%. More companies are beating earnings right now than historically the average. Well, that's a good case. But guess what? The number that it was at over the last five quarters was 62%, so it's definitely down. And then you have the downgrades, outnumbering upgrades by the most since 2020, okay? So it's all over the place. When you look at the data, which is really how I was going to talk about versus just Muhammad Al-Aryan's position. I mean, he makes some cases, folks, in here. You know, and you want to get everybody's opinion right now, folks, because it is very difficult for anybody to be pegging what's going on. One thing he talked about in here is the IMF. Yeah. So he talks about, you know, the IMF cutting its growth projection for 2022 by 0.4 percentage points to 3.2, a significant amount for a min-year revision and by 0.7% to 2.9 for 2023. It also revised up its inflation forecast and warned of possible financial and debt problems. The terms they used were gloomy and more uncertain. And he did work for 15 years at that fund. And in his opinion, the words gloomy are not something they use lightly. Take that for what it's worth. The data in that article, though, when you add it up and then you compare it to the percentage returns that we have, what I talked about last week, okay, this data that we're going to get going forward as in July's data, as we start getting it and we start getting it, the big numbers on Friday. We get other data as well. We get earnings this week. We're not even, we're about halfway through earnings, as I just said. So those are going to come as well. We got through the biggest tech companies, man. When I was talking to Kevin Higgs last week, I was saying it almost feels like we just got to get through them. And we did better than that, man. Apple, right? You come into last week at about 154. We're at 161. Let's check out early in the week. We got Microsoft and Google, okay? Microsoft comes into the week at about 260. We ended 280 almost, alright? Google comes into the week at 108. We ended 115. Amazon, 120. We're at 135. Apple, 152 to 162. Some of the companies that were not as beneficial, one of the big fallouts, Roku. Yeah, I would be very careful, folks. One of the only players in Roku, you think somebody might buy them? That's one position that you could take on that thing. They fall out of bed from 85 to 60. I think they missed something like revenue was expected to be 900 million, and they're going to look for about 700 million. I talked about my program last week. They don't miss on revenue forecast by 30% often, folks. Now, Intel had a big miss, too. I think they missed by about 15%. You see the haircut they took. Their CEO was out there basically pleading the case. Please recognize that this is the low and we will do better. Not exactly indicative of strong leadership when you're out there saying, we know it's bad, but that's going to be the worst of it. This chart doesn't say the worst of it, folks. This is a pretty solid downtrend channel that we got going on Intel right now. You just hit a low of 35, 24. We backed things up for a five-year weekly. That's bringing us back to where we were in 2017 prices for Intel. Folks, that's more than five, that's five years ago for a chip company, okay? Comparatively, there's AMD from about eight or nine bucks up to 164. Not exactly a fair comparison, obviously lots going on, but Intel, man, for a company like that. Now, Roku was only talking about 900 billion. They shaved it down to about 700 billion. I think Intel's forecast was something like from 19 billion to 17 or something like that. You're talking about billions of dollars just disappearing to the tune of 15% of their revenue overnight from their forecast. And yeah, they trade down to a recent low on Intel at 35, 24. So we get earnings this week. We get jobs number on Friday. We get CPI next week. If the Fed's going to be data dependent, folks, we got less than four minutes to go into the opening bell. We'll come back. We'll take a look at some of the companies coming out with earnings this week. Again, we're going to be talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad. After the next break, 40 past the hour, we'll be talking to him. Please, folks, the last day to do it, check out the Tiger Forex report. Teddy's got a new report out this morning. Okay, so you instantly gain access to that. We'll be talking to Teddy at 40 past the hour. We'll talk a little bit of Forex. We'll talk a little bit of crude. As crude, quite a pullback we got going on to this crude market right now. Off almost five bucks, you're under 94. But here's the thing, man, we've been down to this level before, right? We've been down to this level before. This seems like a critical area in that crude contract, pushing $93 to $94. Let's see where we go from there. Gas prices a little bit down. Can't deny that one. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be coming back right for the opening bell. At a time of booming inflation, we are purchasing powers eroded. There's no better place to protect your hard-earned money than ain't gold. This-the-goals flagship asset is the Monk Todd Gold Project in the Northern Territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. We are talking a world-class gold project in a tail-one mining district. This is a large-scale, low-cost project with significant existing infrastructure and a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction. This-the-goals just completed the Monk Todd Feasibility Study, which resulted in a 7 million-ounce gold reserve in a 16-year mine life. All of this, combined with the approvals of all major operational, as well as environmental permits. 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For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, tfnn, educating investors. Welcome back, folks. We've got markets open and you're looking at an S&P. We open down about 25 points right now. NASDAQ 100 gives back 73. The Dow gives back 156 from that acceleration we had. We kick off August with a little bit of negative action after quite a month to the upside in July. All right, jumping around to some of the other news I had pulled up here. Where are we going to start things off? Let's see. Let's start it off with... Oh, is that it? Yeah, this earnings. So, we talked about downgrades versus upgrades, okay? We're more than halfway through earnings season. 56% of the companies have reported their earnings. I'm going to go over some of the companies that we got coming out this week. We got some good companies this week, man. More than half have beaten estimates. The long-term average is 47%, although recently that number has been as high as 62% in the last five quarters, suggesting that stocks are not out of the wood jet, posting their strongest monthly rally since November of 2020. You got Morgan Stanley's Wilson out on a note saying that the rebound in stocks is likely to be short-lived as estimates are cut further and the economy heads into a contraction amid continued policy tightening by the Fed. It's kind of just given both fundamental takes, right? That's an opinion, if I've ever heard one, correct. As in, yes, it's an opinion, not if it's correct, okay? But these are very important decisions as a longer-term trader that you need to figure out for yourself, folks, because it's all going to depend on the data right now. The Fed is literally saying, we got two months until the next meeting. Let's see what happens, and we're going to ride that horse, man. And we got CPI next week. We got jobs numbers this week. They're all going to matter. Keep your fingers tight on some of those trading days, folks. We think that the fourth quarter is the most likely time of the year when companies decide to kitchen sink the estimates. Fourth quarter. We're coming up on that, man. JP Morgan looking a little bit of the other way, though. They're saying earnings expectations are finally likely to deteriorate in the second half. Revenues are still expected to rise, okay, meaningfully, and any earnings weakness is unlikely to mean material. That's JP Morgan. There's a lot of takes out there, nonetheless. All right. Jumping over to some of the other headlines in the morning. We'll start off with Apple. They're kicking off a four-part bond sale to fund buybacks and dividends. 40-year security. May yield 150 basis points over treasuries. An Apple bond, probably just as good as a treasury. Maybe even you could make the case even more so. I kid a little bit, but depending who is in office. 40-year security. Earning 150 basis points over treasuries. Highest possible credit rating in December, I would say so, folks. I mean, they just got so much cash on hand. They are a cash machine. So they're going to push out it. The longest portion of that's going to be a 40-year. It's going to be four parts. The sale comes, yeah. It's been a tough one. Apple appears to be taking advantage of recent stability and relatively cheaper cost of funding in the high-grade market. I mean, look at their cash, man. Cash and liquid securities, $180 billion. That's a nice cushion to have if you're buying paper from that company. Upgraded to AAA by Moody's, putting it in an exclusive club with Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson is the only U.S. corporations with the highest possible rating. Check that out, right? Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson and Apple. Let's jump over to Microsoft. See how we're trading as these markets trade a little bit lower this morning. They're giving back about $2.60. Keeping in mind, folks, Microsoft was at $250 coming into earnings. We're trading at $280. You're going to have some volatility when the markets do what they did last week. Very difficult to get so much upside action right now when the markets just traded up about 18, 14% in a period of a month. Yeah. Okay. Let's jump to some of the stocks that we got coming out with their numbers. We'll kick it off. What do we got? Let's see. On Monday, we get some companies. We got Kellogg's ahead of the O. Let's see how they opened. Kellogg's. They got their numbers. Is that right? Maybe. I think they are out. Maybe it's after the bell. We get Activision Blizzard. They're after the bell tonight. Pinterest. Is that right? Let's jump over. Pinterest is going to be after the bell tonight. You talk about some volatility, man. From 90 bucks, 90 bucks again, 80 bucks just over a year ago. Somehow you got a spike in October to $66. This is a one-way trip, man. You're at 19 bucks. Down another 1% today. Pinterest out with their numbers after the bell today. They got about a $3 move priced into that equity. Now, be careful, folks, on that one. Really remarkable that they are below where you came into prices in terms of the pandemic and Pinterest back to the 2020 year. How do these companies give it all back? It's one thing to give it all back, but then to give it all back and then some. Remarkable. Tuesday, we really get into some of the bigger stocks. Let's see. We got Caterpillar out with their earnings on Tuesday. What do we got here for Fibonacci? What am I been trying? Looking for some of these bounces potentially in terms of where we may run into some resistance. Caterpillar jumps right up to the 50%. They're out with their numbers on Tuesday. You're talking about an $8.77 move priced into their numbers. We also get JetBlue with their numbers on Tuesday. This thing's been in trouble, man. Now they're going to be buying what spirit, right? You're at 8.39 down about a 30%. Yeah, we get Uber and Marriott as well. Uber, it's been a tough go-around, man. You're sitting at 23.16. Uber out with their numbers on Tuesday. More than a 10% move priced into that equity. As they continue to struggle coming out of the pandemic. And what else did I say? We get Marriott as well on Tuesday. Decent bounce going on. Let's see what we're dealing with. I mean, what's going on? Some of these bounces, right? We're going to get some tradable areas here. You've got quite a bounce going on on some... Marriott's almost up to the 618, man. Of just the move we had from June 6th to June 20th. You traded from 180 to 135, and we've jumped to the 618. We get out with their numbers on Tuesday as well. And I think that's all before the bell I just talked about. I mean, there's so many companies. Let me pick even some of the better ones here. We get AMD and Airbnb. I just talked about AMD. I don't know, this is a tough one. Let's take a trend line here for AMD. Have we broken out of that? That's a critical area right where we're at right now. You could say pushing the upper boundary. Maybe we did get above it. It's a pretty well-defined channel line that AMD is in right now, even to the bottom side of it. Pretty well-defined. We're bumping up. Maybe you let it go over there. Come back, test that line for AMD. But AMD, they're going to be out with their numbers. Yeah, Tuesday after the bell is well. About $6.56 move. They follow Intel with their dismal earnings. We get EA, Electronic Arts, right? Yeah, EA, they'll be out with their numbers. You're talking about an $8.57 move. Listen to these companies. We had Starbucks as well. Let's check out Airbnb. So it's a big week earnings. Look at all these companies, man. Airbnb, this thing's had quite a pullback, man. You go IPO. I think this blue line is when they went IPO. Is that right? Yeah, I think that blue line is when they went IPO. I'm not sure that. I'll have to peg that, but it's pretty close because that's the first week that they traded. You jump up to $219. And yeah, you're only back to $108. But Airbnb, they'll be out with their numbers on Tuesday. They sure will. And Starbucks will be out with their numbers on Tuesday as well. Yeah, Starbucks sitting at $84. All right, folks, stay tuned. We got the S&Ps down by $30 right now. Let's check in on the crew contract. This is going to be a great segment. We're coming back with our Mantetti Kegstad. We got crewed off $5.38 right now. We just hit a 92 handle on crewed. We got some dollar action. We got notes and bonds. What are we talking about right now? We got the 10-year up for ticks. We're talking about a yield of about 2.65%. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back with Teddy. We'll see you next Monday morning with elite coverage of all major currency pairs, including the DXY, Eurodollar, Pounddollar, Ozzy Dollar, Dollar Yen, Dollar Swiss Frank, and so much more. Teddy will recommend specific trades when the market presents them and provide updates throughout the week when warranted. For the month of July, inaugural members to the Tiger 4X report will receive 25% off the monthly subscription for as long as they're subscribed. Just use promo code teddy25 to lock in the added savings. Your offer is good only for the month of July, so do not miss your opportunity to save on the Tiger 4X report, TFNN, Educating Investors. The technology around us is changing every day. 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We get the S&Ps. You're negative by 17 points right now, trading down four tenths percent. And folks, head on over to the front page at TFNN. We're going to talk to our man, Teddy Kegstad right now. We always talk to Teddy on Wednesdays at 40 past the hour. We're talking to him on Monday this week as well. We'll talk to him on Wednesday as well. We're talking to him, folks, because today is the last day that you can sign up and save 25% for the Tiger 4x report on the front page of TFNN, folks. You head on over. You click that button. The important part, when you're subscribed, folks, just enter code. I'm going to show you real quick before we talk to Teddy. Enter code Teddy25 right in the promo code slot there. You hit Add the Code. That's 25% off, folks. It brings you down to $72.75. I believe, check my math. I think that's right. You save 24 bucks and a quarter every month, folks. 25% off, and that stays with you forever. And you still get a 30-day money-back guarantee. So if it's not something you're trading with, it's not something you have the time for. You don't like it for any reason. You get a money-back guarantee if you cancel. And best case is you stay on and you lock that in forever, folks. You're saving more than $24 every month for the life of your subscription. And Teddy, it's an interesting one. How was the market, though? I got to know. How was Lollapalooza, man? Oh, it was amazing, man. Metallic was only supposed to play for an hour and a half and they put on a full two-hour show. It was insane. I love it. I was so jealous, man. I was emailing Teddy on Friday, folks. He said, my weekend starts in two hours, man. I'm going to Lollapalooza. I said, oh, I got to get to a live show again soon, man. That's like my favorite thing to do in life. I was jealous. That's great. You had a great time, man. Okay. And we jump right into it, man. So where do you want to kick things off? We got some action in the dollar. We got some action in crude in a big way. What are you looking at on Monday? It's great we talked to you on Monday, man, because we usually talk to you on Wednesday. So maybe you can walk us through how you start in the week and what you're looking at. Well, this is a good Monday to talk about because we had both a weekly close, a monthly close, and a daily close on Friday. So especially remember on Wednesday, anyone that watched when we were talking last week, I mentioned how technically the yen was actually setting up for a sell. Boy, did it really ever sell off. And then you have this whole take as far as the bonds as well. We talked about this head and shoulders pattern on the daily basis that with this wishy-washy Fed speak that's going on and saying how you have to follow, that they're going to follow the data, well, shouldn't you always be following the data? Like, isn't that exactly what your job is? So what does that mean? During other periods, you're having periods of introspection or something? I don't know what that means. I mean, I don't know what that means at all. So the market rates, the fact that it's being pumped up the way it is right now, we have a divergence as far as what's going on fundamentally. You have a Fed that says we're still going to raise rates but watch the data, but somehow we're getting higher bond pricing. And that's definitely a reflection of what's going on in the dollar. But then you can also see where the extremes are. Like the yen sold off really big over the past few sessions. So did the Swiss. If you notice how the euro rallied versus the pound, the pound is rallying pretty strong. The euro has only had a 50% correction from its last swing high to the past swing low of a couple of sessions back. So that's showing how where the strength really is in these other currencies. And I think that as if the dollar still is under pressure, you're going to see a more accelerated move in say the pound and the yen in the Swiss, you're not going to see as much of that. The same thing with the Aussie and the New Zealand. So I think it's going to be interesting to watch the bonds because if this is just a market correction in the dollar and the interest rate sector and even in the crude oil market we should be coming into a bottoming area or a topping area in the bonds. So if we're going to push this either we're going to have one more leg and really hit the extreme or we're talking about a change in trend that could last a couple of months. The bonds themselves in the tenure put on a monthly buy signal. So now remember it's a monthly basis so that doesn't mean you can't have a correction off of that move. But that could also mean that if that's true then we're going to have a higher trending market for bond prices for the next like three to six months. This doesn't make sense when you have a Fed that's supposed to be leaning on at least a half a point three more times before the year is out. So that's that's a very big question on what's going on right now. So I think people have to really keep those in their in their in their back on the background and what they're trading when it comes to the different currency crosses. Yeah it's pretty cool. I mean the move in the note in the bond market I had I got the 30 year up here on a monthly going back to think or swim it goes back to 96 I think and really the run higher looks like it started in 99 right and we're just literally almost still sitting at that trendline got a little below it but a bounce as traders doesn't seem too outlandish when basically we were just trading in the third year the numbers in the third year just bonkers man we're at 191 in March 2020 when you got that acceleration even if you just take where we were at the end of 2020 we're about 174 170 something like that and we're at 144 still so the moves have just been remarkable where maybe we do get some bounces within a trend but some of these bounces the trend is just so large that maybe those bounces are a little bit larger than we used to with the trend intact right right uh crude crude is moving a lot this morning man what's your take on the marketing crude we're coming down to another critical area catching a little bit of a bounce in the last few minutes we just had a 92 handle now we got a 94 handle uh what's your action on crude even this morning down down decent I know it's under pressure it's right now I think it's just a little bear trap I think it's testing support but it's basing I still am bullish on crude I don't see that it's not gonna you know just get back I could see crude easily get back above 105 to 110 in a heartbeat you know so I'm not comfortable at these levels I'll tell you what I'd be very cautious trying to sell the crude oil market right now in fact I wouldn't even take a short trade in the market at all as a technical trader myself I agree you know it's pretty much at a pretty critical area in this area you know you can pick 10-15 areas on this chart basically that you could have bought at this area and it's bounced or held going back to almost the better part of this year and the bonds in the tenure are influencing crude too you realize that as interest rates remember we talked about this months ago about what was helping to drive the crude prices if the Fed raises rates the cost of carryover for crude goes up so right now the market rate even though the Fed just raised three quarters of a point the market rate is actually gone down so that means the price the cost to carry over and you gotta realize we're coming in there's always rollovers in the oil market in the spot prices and stuff like that so every month that's a big reflection because as that comes off every month that's gone now you have a new interest rate well financing for oil right now is cheaper now than it was two three months ago it's a great take in so that's why I think you're getting this suppression and crude price it's artificially being suppressed because the cost of carryover is being decreased so I mean it's just like the cost of gasoline locally if the federal taxes reduced plus also certain state taxes okay the price of gas has come down but that's only because they're not paying the taxes the price of gas didn't come down the taxes were removed so that's where that pricing and I think I'm looking at it in that same perspective it's a great point the cost of capital right the interest rate I mean we talk about it my dad always says like what can you buy right and that translates to everything man even companies themselves Apple's got a four part bond sale out there today because interest rates are low enough that they can push out that paper man and use that capital as opposed to the $180 billion in cash they got on their books so the fed back to the fed real quick because you made some great points man and I completely agree they should be data dependent I think what you know the market is taking all the optimism there and we got like 20 seconds to you know maybe we can bring you back right do you have a few minutes perfect I can do it yeah let's jump into the break man because I want to get because we get the jobs number on Friday we get CPI next week and if it's data dependent let's have a little conversation about those two numbers folks head on over the front page while we're on break for three minutes check out the Tiger 4x report Teddy's got a new issue out this morning and we'll be right back to finish up the show I've been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the Tigers Den available to all Tigers and Tigris for just $1 for the year there's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders in the Tigers Den you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas interact with other Tigers and Tigris as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day even at night and 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and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the Fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today TFNN.com educating investors this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com welcome back folks and we got markets picking up in August right where we left off in July you get the NASDAQ 100 climbing a solid 150 points from the lows we got just in the last half hour we're above 13,000 you're positive by 32 points right now and the S&P's trying to make it right now S&P's negative by just seven points after being lower by about 35 so Teddy talking about the fundamental news we get jobs numbers on Friday we get the CPI next week the Fed said their data dependent what are you looking for because I've been talking about maybe we see you know those they just become so important if the Fed is as they should be data dependent it's all up in the air what are you looking for for those numbers where you get jobs and then CPI next week and how that might shape the movement in these markets numbers I mean this is something we've been talking about for almost a year where I said as we move forward now the main economic numbers are the biggest thing to watch now for the whole economy and all the markets to trade without a doubt jobless claims and unemployment and it was funny over the weekend I was listening to some of the shows and I love to speak how especially those who are basically following and being don't worry they're they know what they're doing everyone's panicking whatever saying you know well yeah now we know we're in a recession well we've all known we everyone knows we've been in a recession for more than two months you didn't need the data for that you know so but the one thing I think you have to watch is definitely unemployment claims and unemployment because they were saying how well we're at record low unemployment well okay that's what we are right now but the question is how long can unemployment stay as stable as it is with a contracting economy with high inflation like this layoffs have already started you've already seen it in the financial sector over the past two months we're chased in a whole bunch of other bent on places started already getting rid of people from their lending departments and all kinds of banking sectors so if you're doing it in white collar jobs when what happens when it starts trickling down into the other sectors of the economy it's going to start to rebel effect will be big now I don't think it's going to be a big uptick yet and may not even have an uptick this month but I think unemployment over the next two to three months for sure is going to start to go up you know on especially on claims and also also the CPI it's going higher inflation is here CPI goes higher watch out folks and the jobs yeah Amazon Amazon lost 99,000 workers last quarter man Teddy thank you so much man we look forward to talking to you on Wednesday sounds good I do too alright folks check out the tiger 4x report stay tuned