 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi everyone, Basil Chapman on this Monday. Monday the 28th of March, last February, the last day of February and tomorrow we start off the new month. We're going to be looking at these candles on the right here. This is the monthly chart of the Dow. Dow is, let's see, 30,624 down 434, off the early morning futures low. But what's really important is that this moment is holding the 14-period moving average, but it is looking weak with the MACD just about to go negative and the stochastic is still good at 84% and the on-balance volume pulling back. That's a monthly chart. The weekly chart, there's only just a little bit of this candle. This is going to be important as well over the coming two weeks. If there is a close under $33,150, that was the low that was made back in, that was the 24th of January. If there is a close below that, then that $32,272 level is going to become a target because you're making low lows and no highs. More importantly, in the daily chart, you've got resistance of $33,945. There is just so much going on. And as I said in my news break at 10 o'clock, it's one thing climbing a wall of worry which the Dow usually likes to do or the general market likes to do, but it's another thing climbing a barbed wire fence. So there are a lot of obstacles in the way. If the market can just hold steady for a little while, that alleviates some of the tensions as things get filtered out. Nuclear war, I doubt we're going to nuclear war, but a lot of things can happen. And we're looking at different prices, we'll get to them in a moment. There are going to impact, I'm also going to show some of the commodities, what's happening in the commodity area, including as Kodas is in the Dan uranium. So let's just move on to the S&P. At this point, the S&P is down 46 and 43.37. Those spectacular two days, the turnaround on Thursday, and then certainly for the Dow, 800 points up. And what happened was the shorts thought, oh, we've got a chance to cover, we'll wait, we'll wait. And then it was just a little moment where at about 2.30 or 3 o'clock, they pulled back, they said, oh, this is it. We'll be falling into the close. And then the markets all closed at their highs. Look at this, the S&P closed right, it went right through the nine-period expansion, moving average, smacked right up against the 14-period moving average, and then stalled, and that was right at the top. And as I said to subscribers, it said 43.82. That's almost like a Merbosa candle in the, that's a candle, big candle, either green or red, that has no wick. Well, they had a little bit of a wick at the bottom. The Dow barely had a wick. So that usually says doji candle the following session, unless there's just a follow-through, huge expansion to the upside, which looked almost impossible over the weekend. Or there's a pretty sharp pullback of about 30%. And it could sometimes be just 30% or 20% of the last hour's big move to the upside. I said to subscribers, we could see a move about 30% to 40%. It was actually 50% in the futures. This holding pattern that we see right now is really important because this whole candle here is going to be the key metric because if we start to take out the low of Friday and the S&P scale is 4286, that is really bad action. If we're looking at the QQQ, holding quite nicely now, down about two and a quarter at 34390, it didn't have as big a move. And there are some areas within the NDX100 that are actually on a percentage basis are moving better. If you have fewer stocks in that sector, but the specific stocks, it could be QQQs on steroids. We've actually got a position in one of those things. But it's a small position. I'm not prepared to get carried away here. I don't mind missing some move. I'd rather start to see higher highs and higher lows to be able to give me some sense of a decent support level than to say, I know everything. We're going absolutely fully long position. No, no, no. We don't have any shorts right now. We have very specific longs, and they worked so far, almost all of them have been working so far. And now what we're going to look at is within the context of the indices, the IWM down 84 cents at 201.61, we're following this really closely. Why? Because it's one of the more successful patterns of the Chapman wave dreaded H formation where you take out the left side low after fading at a peak B, that became a peak B minus. I forgot to correct that. That's a B minus because it failed. It took out the left side low. And we're going to be watching this just to see maybe there's more upside going into an arch from a second arch formation into the 207 to eight level. I might just use it as an indicator rather than to do any buying. I just, I want the buying for subscribers to an opening call right now to be very selective. We just, you have no choice. So it made that rectangle formation, the long rectangle formation in the weekly chart. Look at this goes on for, it's almost a year since March of 2021 at 234.53 high to the 207.21 low. I think it was still March. Yep, still March. And then we stayed in a rectangle formation with just one quick pop to a peak D. That's the fourth highest peak in the Chapman wave. And then we pulled back and we went right through after the dreaded H pattern, the lower case H fails and goes to the downside to that low of 187.92 on Thursday. So what I'm saying is that it's not in play for the upside of this particular point, but it is in play for a holding position that at this point as a, just as a chart pattern in the daily is holding better than the others, not so much in the weekly and the monthly chart is already confirmed to peak D with the MACD week, sarcastic week, the on balance volume holding quite well, yet that nine period moving average is still way above the 14. Oh, before I forget, I had the fortune on Friday to be able to, yeah, Tom O'Brien show and Tom so he was, he had a caller who was talking about using the nine period exponential moving average was something I've used for just a long, long time as a key metric. Well, if you're looking at that and you're shooting it as a trading position, yeah, just have a look at this in the 10 minute chart when that my technicals, the way I use the technicals close positive around about 5.20 in the morning on Friday on Thursday. Now, is that Friday? What day is that? I can't see. Yeah, the 25th. Yeah, that's Friday. Once it turned positive, it stayed positive for all the different chapter we've techniques, through all the Fibonacci numbers, through all the volume numbers, through all my on balance volume numbers, through everything all the way through until the close. And even then it looked like it was going to pull back. That's when the players in the market at two o'clock that aha, we'll stay short. And then they had to start covering going into the close and then it made this big C1 C2 double top and only on that smash to the downside on Sunday night did it turn negative. So that's one of the ways that you can use the nine period moving average, you have to use it proficiently and yet my preferred to use it without indicating that nine kept you in the trade through the way through. And I'll show you this morning's trade as well. I'll be back in a moment. That's the chapter. That's that four hundred and three. 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Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts and the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. Call now. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. Our bugs were back. I just wanted to use the use of the nightly removing apps in my book. It's a pretty important component. I just wanted to talk about it. And as I said, I heard, I called according to Tom O'Brien and Tom O'Brien really good information about how he uses volume. All of these things are important. You don't have to use any particular one. You could use a mix. You could ignore it. It's just how you use it is the most important thing and be consistent. So look, even today, I didn't believe this myself. In fact, I didn't do anything. I was just watching. I couldn't believe it. So the 200-speed moving average, this pink line in the 10-minute e-mini chart, look, crosses positive, goes to peak C and AD, and pulls back and holds steady on all these moving averages. And then it goes peak A, peak E slash B alternate count because it looked like the stochastic was pulling back, goes to C and AD, pulls back, saws a brand new move, goes to E and F, has three candles with just about the same high, all four together, pulls back, and then goes quickly to peak A, peak B, peak C and AD, and all of a sudden you're now up only 58 points, down 58 points at 4322 when you are very much more earlier on, and we haven't yet, in the 10-minute chart, crossed negative. So that's important, but yeah, look at the difference in the one-minute chart. It goes positive, right there, just for a brief one bar, it went negative then positive, and right at about 4326, it goes positive, and it was really whippy. If you were in this, you wouldn't believe it, but you were held, you kept your position, if you use a technique that I try to talk about all the time, then it goes peak A, B, C, and it goes to AD, fourth highest peak, you've got to be careful, yellow light flashes, turns around and comes down, and it's pink, and all of a sudden the nine-period moving average has gone underneath, the price has gone underneath the 200-period moving average. So it's how you use these things, it's really important. All right, let's get back to our story. So we were talking about the IWM. Now this is important because for me, the semiconductor index, down 388 at 266.50 SMH, this to me is really key to the overall market, one of the reasons why we've raised cash and we're considering that the whole monopoly of the different facets that are going on right now, both internally, that's the United States, externally, geopolitically, as well as geo-economically, is really important. There's such a mishmash of things going on that three weeks ago, four weeks ago, we're in play, but only more what I call trading in play. Now there are actually, now these are trends that you have to consider to be weekly trends, and I'll go through them right now. Look, gold. Gold is now off its high today. The high was in the continuous contract, 1935. We did 1976 a few days ago, plunged down to the 1882 level, and now look at what we're doing. We're holding near the highs. The monthly chart is starting to improve, although that chapter went inside wedge target repellent line. Tidwork is a repellent line, but look at this weekly. Now I talk about a rectangle formation. In fact, I've got a couple, hopefully I'll remember and have time today to talk about a couple of rectangle formations. I draw these and I draw them in as saying for my eye, I don't do them. Steve has done some really good work following up on Bud Ralph's to do with parameters, horizontal parameters. I do something very different. I came to this all very visually years and years and decades ago. So I'm very visual. I can see a rectangle formation, meaning that between 1950s, what's the year, 1950s, and let's call it 1700, it goes to 100, but let's call it 1700. There's really a big rectangle formation and gold has just been in that position for a long time. And what's really important about this is that we snuck above it. We went right to that target that I had. If you look at my left side, right side, price time match and using the fulcrum right there of the week of the 4th of June with a high of 1928. My target was all of these left side highs of 1980 to 19, I think it was 1986, not 1990. So that went all the way back to the starting point around about the 25th of September of 2020. Well, we just hit that dam and it went right there and now it's pulled back. So all with this whole configuration going, to me, gold is really an emblem. It's an icon and an emblem as a barometer of fear. Yeah, it has a whole bunch of other implications although probably in usage silver gets more use in the economy than gold, not the point. The point is that historically, ever since the beginning of time, gold has been where not just regular human beings or that's what happens but countries go to gold. So why isn't gold screaming at the 2100 level higher than that high that was made in the continuous contract back in the week of the 7th of August, 2020 at 2113? Surely by now we should be much higher. So I think there's a lot of there's a lot of stuff going on like a magician. You know, we don't even see them anymore but you remember in New York for those who used to go there for a couple of decades ago. You had those guys on the street with their little what they call the P pods or whatever it is and they juggle those things. I once saw someone I was just standing there watching lose. I couldn't even tell you the dollars just kept just kept losing and losing kept saying Oh, yeah, I'll get in this thing. It was horrible to watch. Anyway, what I'm looking at here is that the juggling is saying so far and this so far gold is holding back a little bit because there are so many things going on right now within this let's just call it the insurgents that's gone. That's a real insurgents that's gone right into into Ukraine and at the same time the defense makers and Bravo to these regular people you know doing the best they can holding back the Russians. I could have just imagine the Russian soldiers first of all not sure why they're there I'm sure and the other thing that I'm always I remember this with Croatia you know you actually you're fighting your cousins in many cases could even be your brothers and sisters or sister-in-law brother this is really it's ugly it is just such a human tragedy anyway let's get away from that talking about gold I'm talking about gold and I'm saying that gold is saying just at this particular moment that the worst isn't there okay wait a minute silver and I'll just do silver because silver had a big spike up in the weekly chart and now it's pulled back a little bit as a 2453 silver is almost always a lag and then when it really kicks in under normal market conditions gold is really close to suddenly pulling back but let's just say silver at this particular point at any time let's call it this week if silver is trading above 27 I suspect that gold will be trading gold will be trading a lot higher at least 50 points higher you just get to this if you stop typing it again it's a lot to do today and I haven't even finished the halfway through the show yeah gold will be above the high at 97 70,000 that's the case are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com the Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas join the den and surround yourself with these sharpest minds in the trading world subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day subscribe to the Tiger's Den risk free with our 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piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com close your back and let me just see what does Larian MLP do obviously that looks like Larian MLP do I think I'll type that incorrectly MLP Prima, Larian MLP indexes leading gauge of energy infrastructure oh yeah okay yeah that's what I was looking at this at every all the signs of an energy so the question is believe I've got that right so the question is I would like to add to it and what where should I get in I'm just going to say right here at 3711 it's got a falling exformation the dating and it's gone above it the day is young if it at the end of the day if it closes under 3640 you could be a tad early that's why I just say starter of your next position here but I'd split it into two probably the weekly chart has gone to a peak F pulled back that was back in June of last year up in the 39 area takes a couple of dives there's a one to one extension to downside to 30 and now it's had a high of 3864 in most recent month of February pulls back to the 34 344 point decline and I have to call this a peak B at this particular point in the week I give it's a great peak because it's under the previous one most importantly the Magdy's good in the in the weekly chart not the day the dead he's had a lot of pullback technically and the nine period moving areas under the four teams so that's why I'm saying a little starter position here for your add on most importantly what I'm looking at is within the context of the weekly chart let me expand this I don't want to do this just isolated with a little window that I'm looking at you this W formation which is what you mentioned to me I like that very much I'm going to call it just instead of drawing to to U shaped patterns I'm making it just one and it went back in the same time frame but it just missed making the new high of 38 of 38 93 now you remember we spoke about this over and over all I mean for months now I've been saying these stocks that come to within pennies of the previous high normally I'd suggest be real careful because this pullback could extend down but it's in an area of energy energies everything you read right now says energy is going to be the thing you have to keep your eye on and this administration has to keep us I why why we're not talking about opening up our spigots to use energy if we need it here why we haven't talked about yes it could be a mediator I know this you have to consider the whole pollution area has to be discussed but is you gotta you gotta way lives to your environment and sometimes you just have to make a compromise and if it means that if we are starting to flood the market again with oil putans lost a huge thing what I mean he's just lost he's his financial capacity that's that's what he's leveraging so I would just say this is the specific in which energy area these guys in but you want to see this extend so what I'm going to say because it's the area XLE I don't know if it's in the XLE I'm probably not I'm just going to do the XLE you remember we spoke about the week to charter peak C and that there should be a leg C to the upside in the XLE well it also had a little bit of a pullback like that chapter before the accident and now XLE is up 78 cents to 69 66 I think these are in play for a little while to come I don't know how little while but it's going to be in play I'm just saying I like the area I didn't like the chart pattern or the mattress making the double top but it's in the right area and it held very well so I'm going to say I would I would consider at least starting and if it actually closes towards the high of the day as it's moving I said oh now it's 69 59 you know I'm going to say a little bit more than another you could just start two thirds of your new here and I would then add to it and I just have a little bit of a cushion because if this suddenly starts to trade in the next two days below 67 90 then it says oh oh sideways sideways at worst but heading towards the highs so keep it keep that in mind next question I oh thank you for that question and the next one is because White Shark in a native native mess hi how are you a good morning Basil how are you I'm well thank you so Sharki what do you want to look at I wanted to look at SD there I was looking at on the daily in the weekly it looks like the stochastic is you know over the 80 the the 9 is over the 14 it looks like on a daily I may be wrong about that but is that in the peak C on on the daily so let's look at this this is SD is Sandridge Energy Inc. you know specifically which part is this oil and gas I'm not sure yeah I think I'll check it out in a moment let's just get to the notation so the daily chart I've got peak A peak B doji candle and then it goes to a peak C and then it has a sideways consolidation and then it goes to today's leg up as a D there are a number of these issues in fact for subscribers I'm going to show you something very interesting in a moment hopefully I'll have time and that was those streamers that I was talking about that had spectacular moves and yet they still look like they could move today some of them actually move even higher today it's unbelievable when something's in play and demand is there these things can really move so this looks have the weekly chart looks a little bit like what we were looking at a moment to go for the question I had about AMLP and if I meant to write this down AMLP and you've got SD so do you have a position at all are you looking to get in what's the looking to you know I was noticing that you know we're in a D you know peak C definitely in the daily but you know the D is you know that's the next but I don't have a position and I looked at the weekly and I thought that the stochastic was you know so this is a stock that's up 64 cents today 13.68 the fact that it's low priced doesn't make it cheap doesn't make it expensive it means just that it's low priced so that you can't put it together in the same category as something else that is perhaps a superior company that has a higher higher price so remember price very often price is a factor over the years of it's funny I'm going to talk about it in a way that probably is not what you should do but it's a respect the longer something's in play and the more people and more institutions that are buying it very often the higher the price when you look at PE multiples and all that you can get a price like SD at 13.64 it could offer you even more percentage gains than the others because it's a lower price but you've got to consider that it's in a different category it's in a different category in terms of the weighting that I would give it as fund managers portfolios the majority of fund manager for portfolios would have say SU which is San Sonoco Energy and then if you had to go to something like SU Southern Company so I'm just saying the price is not what you're looking at so give me a second I want to do just a little bit of work actually want to see what they do and we'll be right back okay thank you looking at Jesus are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 or email us at tiger at tfnn.com that's 727-329-8322 call us today the technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David White's investment newsletter the technology insider is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology that shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future David White has made his living staying on the cutting edge technology his weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks as well as entry prices target prices and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday with updates throughout the week you can get the technology insider at tfnn.com for only $37.50 sign up for David's newsletter the technology insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer try it risk free today with our 30 day money back guarantee tfnn educating investors IoTech is 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I'm looking at 1367 right now up 63 cents I have if this is a daily chart if it's able to hold 13.30 to $13 support over the next two days the next target I have between today and tomorrow would be the 14.19 area that's really much higher if it manages to keep going and keep making higher highs and higher lows kind of what it's done then the high that was made on the 12th of November at 1499 yeah that would be my target for it which is a point and a half that's very nice 10% gain and that would be before March the what are we doing before March the by the end of next week so this has to accelerate now excuse me just so everyone knows the earnings come out on March 2nd so earnings after the market on March 2nd just to let you know from what I'm looking at the earnings should be good I mean that's the way it's looking right now and then monthly chart starts legs see if we can go to $15 there's no time on that that's what I'm saying so I like it just got to be careful that at that 14.80 to 15.10 level if it gets there that's where you can see a lot of resistance but that'll be your pleasure if you're along getting from $13.62 to $15 so I hope that helps you thank you very much Basil thank you very much for calling always appreciate you how are you enjoying this Florida weather Basil oh just rub it in just rub it in I'd like to have you take a look at the TLT I've been shorted for a while and I'm looking at an exit point now so I spent a little time on this over the weekend and I also showed my subscribers an opening call we were looking at the triple yield chart that's the 30 the 10 and the 5 year yields we're getting close to some kind of resistance in the yields and so this is what I'm thinking under the market conditions and you know that although he doesn't talk about it per se from the evidence that we've seen with Powell he's one of the few even though people say oh the Fed is non political we know they political we know that there's a whole bunch of things going on political in the sense that I'm not party wise but political in the sense that they have to they have to use slate of hand as well so what I'm thinking here is that with the conditions that we're looking at in the overall geopolitical economic area there's a really good chance that they do they say they're going to give us at least a quarter maybe even a half but they tell us exactly what they're going to do but then they say it's going to be an initiation move to this not sporadic now but a consistent way of looking at the chance of raising rates and you and I have actually spoken about this for years we've said surely in really good economic conditions the norm is that rates go higher because there's a demand for loans and that is paralleled with good economic I mean people are prepared to pay up if they think they're going to make more money by using that money judiciously so this is a really weird thing and it started from the 2008-2009 financial debacle so what we're really looking at here is there's a mantra there's a kind of a persistent mode that's been in place for so long that there were opportunities all the way that they could have changed that and they never did so are they going to do it now when we've got this this international crisis looming I think they're going to say what will the market accept and I think the market will accept the fact that they are rates can rise by themselves as we know in all this time the year the T bonds went the TLT went from 190 back in 2019 100 sorry 112 all the way to 180 179 70 in March and it got yields coming down and ever since then yields have kind of been going up except for one big balance but now they so what they say and the impact that it has on the market they might be surprised that the market is trying to look through this all so I think we're getting to a point here where that the the TLT going down and having rates rise could take withstand another test of 134 98 which is the load that was made around about the 14th of Feb we've gone up to 139 I with you I would actually do it in a rotating way I would take up a little bit right now because even if they do something even if it's a big move you're in such a position that you give up a little bit of a gain but it's better to be secure in having the trend change significantly and this change the trend will only change at least for the downside if the bonds can hold in the 141 and they not in this market turmoil you would expect that money would migrate from this insecurity of equities into the security the safety of bonds and we haven't seen it we just haven't seen it and that tells me that no matter what we're looking at there at least in the 6 to 10 week time frame those yields are probably going to go higher yet and that the TLT will go down but in the meantime you can have a pretty decent balance so I don't know if you're really looking at the balance to make any changes and all I would say is you know at this particular point let the Fed do what it does and maybe you can just take a little bit off to say hey I don't have to commit myself to an opposing opinion until the Fed actually shows me but I'm pretty sure that the Fed is going to do something and try to be as clear as possible so that the market I love to say the market people say the market hates uncertainty and I say no every day is uncertain it hates uncertainty about uncertainty and that's kind of where we are so if the Fed clears it up and says economic conditions are improving some areas but and they might have to mention inflation maybe they don't want to but inflationary aspects especially when Ukraine I read it the other day they import what is this they import potatoes rye, pea products, wheat chicken eggs, cheese exports, barley, I mean it just goes on and on and on and I just think that what we're looking at here I just want to see the other things that the inflationary aspect is going to be something that they they might have to worry about I think that the part for the yields is just that they've spoken about it they feel obligated to do it and I think they will just start off and say this is the sequence that we're looking at and we'll go one by one if they start off with a bit of a bump of 50 basis points maybe that will shake the market but I think taking a little bit off now kind of alleviates for you some of that and lets the market tell you after that which way it's going to go does that help you a little yes ma'am I really appreciate you you got the best outlook and I agree totally with what you said that's because you agree with me you think it's good have a great day sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content 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I'm looking at a couple of things came in just let me look at them quickly yeah a lot of talking about Russia at this particular point I think we have to be separated you have to consider that other things are happening if you're looking at I showed this the other day I was talking about it just this is CRM which is salesforce.com look at this down channel look at this move from 311 down to the most recent level 184 that is huge don't tell me that what's going on around the world is really going to stop an oversold situation from becoming at least a short term more than a balance but at least starting off as a balance and that's the reason what I'm saying and I say to subscribers of the weekend we have a position we have in what I call the cues on steroids and the cues are up now 0.25 of 85 cents 0.25 percent 90 cents and 346.75 and I have no idea if this is going to work and we have something that's in the same area but it much fewer stocks and it's up 4% and what I can say is that in this particular environment I think we're going to be looking at a rotational rally together with a rotational correction in certain areas oh is that the end of the show my goodness that's the end of the show and you just if you are in particular stocks that are kind of under the radar or have been under the radar to focus stay there don't get nervous about the market but you've got to have tight stocks and just remember climbing a wall of worry is one thing climbing a barbed wire fence