 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com weekend update show. I purposely did not read any news today. I woke up in the morning, I stretched a little bit, went for a walk, played outside with my friends. I should say good afternoon, I forgot what time it is already. Beautiful weather right now in New Jersey, and the purpose of me not reading the news was, I don't want to cloud my head. I know we're in a very extraordinary period right now, very, very extraordinary. And something like this is only in its infancy stages. For example, I keep on, you know, getting that random question from a lot of new traders was Friday the bottom. Friday is not the bottom. Okay, Friday was absolutely not the bottom. We are in an unfortunately to say we are in a very, very first inning of what this virus is. You could turn around and say, this is worse than the flu. This is better than the flu. This is just as equally as worse, whatever the case may be. Okay, the problem why there's so much uncertainty and now we're starting to see not necessarily panic from Wall Street, which again you can make a case we did see a lot of that panic this week. But you're starting to see that with Main Street America. Okay, one day a headline came out that there's a huge run on toilet paper. Why? Okay, why? Right, next thing you know you go to the supermarket, people are flocking up on toilet paper like it's the end of the world. And again, I'm going to have to admit something here. My wife a week ago, two weeks ago, and again it's very, very tough right now to get a lot of inventory. But she ordered like 80 rolls of toilet paper, man. 80 rolls on Amazon, which is arriving today. So I turned to her, I go, what the hell are you doing? 80 roll, that's going to last us three lifetimes. Again, extraordinary circumstances is going to take on extraordinary actions, extraordinary measures. So if anybody runs out of toilet paper, just come to my house, I got you. I got you. So right, win and roll. But, you know, you're starting to hear, you know, because of social media, because of breaking by the second news, people are starting to panic. And the one thing, well, the two things that sells ad space and is very good for clicks is euphoria, right, and panic. And, you know, social media, whether whatever the outlets of news dissemination, they're taking advantage of this, right? Years ago, it was during their, you know, during the 2008 mortgage mess, right? You know, Twitter wasn't that big of a deal, you know, and we weren't glued to Twitter, you know, we would watch the news if you were trading at that time. You'd watch CNBC, so you'd hear news breaking, but it's like one news every like three, four, five hours. You watch the nightly news to see exactly what happened where we are. Now, you know, if you have a squawk box, man, and I love my squawk box, but boy, oh boy, man, it's like the grim reaper, like every 20 seconds, right? Like literally 20 seconds. Johnny from Wichita, Kansas, got the sniffles. He might have Corona, right? So like every 20 seconds, and this is really, really, really magnifying what could be something that maybe is worse. Maybe it's less than the flu. But now we're thinking like this is the plague, man. Like this is the damn plague. And if you look at it, and if you look at the death rate of this coronavirus versus the flu, for example, it's apples to hand grenades, right? But again, I think the fact that social media is making such a big case over every single little case. And again, maybe that's a good thing. Okay, I'm not naive. Believe me, you don't need me to, you know, you don't need to tell me twice to quarantine. Everybody in my house is home for a month. Okay, I've quarantined my family. Okay, I don't give a shit. What happens? I quarantine my family. Both of my kids are on spring break. All their schools are closed. My wife is at home. I'm home. I mean, all we're doing basically is going outside. It's beautiful weather. We're walking the dog, you know, we're walking the dog. We're playing in our backyard. We're playing in our driveway. Thank God the nice weather is here starting to get warmer. Our food deliveries are, you know, coming from, from Amazon, right? From Amazon Prime. So we're doing our food shopping there. So we basically don't have to leave the area. And again, it's scary because it's the unknown. But again, if you take the proper precautions, again, just, just, just dwell on your hygiene right now, shower more, wash your hands, right? Wash your hands every time you touch something, sanitize. Okay, it doesn't need to be a death sentence. You know, we could do our part to kind of put less exposure for our families. And again, you know, the government is not there yet. They're playing this like this little laggy dag type of game right now. In my opinion, you got to just go on lockdown, man. Just go on lockdown, give people a week heads up to take care of themselves to get as many supplies as possible. You know, give it a week down and just lock it down. Lock everything down for two weeks. It's an extraordinary measure. But sometimes, you know, you have to rip that damn Band-Aid off again, instead of like prolonging something that you think it's matching and get better. This people right now, you can see it, like especially in New York, this feels still people walking around, people still, you know, acting like nothing is going on, which is, it's insane. It's all fun and games until you actually get it. So again, do your part, right? Do your part. Take care of your family. Wash your hands. Take showers, right? Have wipes everywhere. Wipe down your area. Lysol. I understand some of the things are harder to get. But again, for all you guys who are prime members, you know, once you get into that queue, right? So for example, like my wife, okay, bought 80 rolls, which is a little ridiculous. But, you know, and again, there's no, there's not a lot of deliveries, but you'll get deliveries like every two, three, four days. Set up your queue, get your delivery, buy as much as you can, store it in storage, right? Put it in storage and you're set to go. But I think again from, and this is just one man's opinion, I think what the market needs to do, excuse me, what the government needs to do is just lock it down, man. Lock it down, you know, lock it down, make sure everybody's safe, nobody, again, it's too late when 15 million people have it. It's just what it is. It's too late. So do your part. Don't, you know, don't go crazy. This is very, very serious. But don't magnify it, right? Don't magnify. Try not to look at the news every 30 seconds. It's not going to change. Believe me, if there's anything really, really aggressive that's about to happen with more testing, with more emergency vehicles, more hospital beds, whatever the case may be, we'll know about it, right? We'll know about it. It won't be like a one, you know, one minute headline blip. We'll know about it. So do what you have to do to take care of yourself. On the trading aspects, you know, I thought it was a very aggressive week. Friday, we saw probably the most aggressive trading day in the whole month so far, I know only two weeks in, incredibly aggressive to the downside. And obviously, with the Trump announcement of unlocking what was it, $50 billion of emergency funds, then back to the upside. But even with a 2000 point rally, we're still down about 10% across the board, which is kind of mind boggling to think about. But that's kind of where we are. And then you have Apple coming out after the close and talking about their close in the Chinese stores for about a couple of weeks, which is again, if you look what happened after the close, Apple's down, the futures went down like 300, 400 points, whatever it was. So again, every rally, and this is what I've been saying now for a couple of weeks, we're in a bear sentiment. I don't want to call it a bear market. I don't believe in the whole bear market, bull market crap, because again, depending on your process, you can always find things to do to the upside. You can always find things to do to the downside. Again, that's just an individual process. I prefer the word sentiment, bullish sentiment, bear sentiment. We're an incredibly bear sentiment right now. Friday was not the bottom. Okay, again, we're in the first inning of figuring out what this is. We're starting to see companies like Roche, several others kind of kind of get a fast track to get any type of, you know, any type of antidote or something that is going to treat or combat this thing, whatever the hell it is. So it's very, very important to understand that. And again, this is where you have to understand what's working in the market and what doesn't. Let me tell you what is working. I've been saying this now for weeks now, especially if you've been watching this video every single day this week. The tone hasn't changed. I'm going home flat pretty much every night. It's pretty much flat. And I know there is a lot of value in the channels. Okay, and I've been saying this every single day, it's like rinse, repeat, broken record. But when the market gaps down, the values to the upside. Why? Again, when you get an 8, 900 point gap down, you know, 95% of the move to the downside has been in the pre-market. Sell the baby bath with bath water. I don't want to be in the stock anymore, which creates channels back to the upside. And no matter how bad the day is, even that day that we lost 2000 points, even that day we had three separate channels, aggressive channels that the market gave spikes of three to 400 points from the bottom. Okay, and this is happening every single day when the market opens up lowers. That's why you always hear me say on the video, I'm hoping for it down open because again, we're getting very, very aggressive channels to the upside. What also happens in a bear scenario, again, not calling it a bear market. What also is happening in a bear scenario, every single time we get a big gap up, stocks are selling into supply. Okay, and anybody who buys the open of a market that just got crushed 1000 points before and is gapping up the next day, you're going to lose money 99% of the time at the open, the stocks are trading back into supplies. That's why if any gap up, you'll always hear me say the value is to the downside. I'll show you the individual pivots from Friday as well. So you need to know a course of action. You also need to understand that 99% of the traders out there, they trade off daily charts. And if you haven't figured out by now in the last three weeks, every daily chart is broken. It's broken. Usually I would turn around and say, well, in a normal market, you should be looking at charts an hour a day, half an hour a day, 45 minutes a day. There's always value. So every chart is destroyed. Okay, just understand that every single chart is absolutely destroyed. You're not going to find that one needle in the haystack. The themes, even the themes that have been working, right? For example, Zoom was a natural play of people working from home doing their live webinars or live work. Again, I use Zoom for the live webinar. I love Zoom. I think Zoom is a phenomenal product. Even Zoom started to get sold off. Matter of fact, I'll even show you a level that you think this is the most natural level where the stock would break, and it still hasn't broken despite more and more companies kind of shutting it down from the space and making people work from home. So even the natural play, right? Even Netflix that people turn around, well, this is a natural play. Everybody's going to be home. You know, binge watch Narcos, binge watch House of Cards, binge watch Ozark, New Zealand starting in two weeks, right? Binge watch whatever you want. This is a natural play. They sold off the stock as well. The stocks that have obviously been the biggest darlings. Everybody's waiting for that. You know, everybody waited for Disney to close their parks, Broadway shows to close their parks. This week we had the NBA. We had two players test it. Rudy Gobert gave it to Donovan Mitchell, which basically I think there would be a fist fight if the cameras weren't there. NBA season done, right? Baseball for the most part. Push the season up a couple of weeks. We'll see. They canceled spring training, at least the Cactus League games. National Hockey League, done. The Pro Tour, the golf court, done. MLS soccer, everything. There's no sports on TV. I think this is more irritating than anything else. The only sports on TV is the UFC. So if you're a UFC fan, there's actually ESPN showing it for free, because literally that's the only game in town. So UFC is on, which again, there is a really ridiculous conversation. Why are they still doing it? But again, to each his own. So we're going through a really rough time right now. But again, what is not healthy is to sit there and moan and bitch. I see people on social media talking about, I can't believe anybody's going to make money in this market. Market's going down 2,000 points a day. Why the hell if you have a portfolio? Why the hell are you letting your positions bleed? You know, you could tweet about how horrible Tesla is 200 times a day and the thought of buying protection on your portfolio never entered your head. Really? Never. Buy puts on the cues, the spies, right? Even short sell the cues, short sell the spies. So all this stuff never crossed your head, right? But you could sit there for two weeks, watch your portfolio bleed while you're complaining about it. Again, everybody's going through something. Nobody cares about what your individual, you know, your individual areas of concern are. We're all going through it, guys. We're all sitting at home. We're all irritated, right? Every single one of us. All we're trying to do is protect our families. All we're trying to do is put ourselves in a natural position that we are not only surviving a tape, right? Getting smarter, okay, in our development, even myself, it's almost 21 years in. Getting smarter in our approach and proceeding with caution every single day. So the idea of sitting there complaining about, there's no way you can make money in this market. Okay, if you sold protection or bought protection or anything in between, you wouldn't be in that area of casualty. Because again, it's all about being proactive. And again, it's very, very tough going overnight. Continue to push the wall, push the wall, push the wall overnight positions. Because again, even the worst markets in the world, like we saw on Friday, will give that spike and will give that aggressive spike and will destroy you as well. So I think that the safest route, and I've been kind of pushing this point home for several weeks now, the safest route is going home flat, right? Go home flat. The futures open up down. Wait for the channels to form. Confirm to the upside. Futures open up. Sell the stocks into supply. If you are an aggressive trader, I'll wait for the channels to confirm on the way down. You will have value on both sides. And I'll show you in a second, from our pivots from Friday, very, very aggressive day. I mean, I think by far, it could have been probably the most aggressive day in the last two weeks, right? In the last two weeks, maybe even three weeks, because you had the aggression to the downside. And then later in the day, you had the aggression to the upside. So, again, we're all in it together. Okay, guys, we're all in it together. If you're a new trader right now, you have two choices. You have three choices. You can complain about it, that this is not a bull market anymore, and the buy the debt theory doesn't work. Again, that's not going to get you anywhere, and nobody's going to care. Okay, we're all in the same boat. Number two, you can find the person that you look up to, and if they are so kind in helping you, you know, a more experienced trader, pepper them with questions. You know, what did you do during the mortgage mess? What did you do during the 9-11, if they go back any further? What did you do during the Asian crisis? What did you do during the bird flu epidemic, the H1N1, all that stuff, through SARS, and this, start asking questions. There's plenty of people that will help you, okay? Once you find that person, if they're so kind enough to do so, they will help you. It's a very, very proactive thing. The second proactive thing you can do is, well, if you couldn't figure it out in a bull market, in a rabid bull market, well, again, you're not going to make your bones in this. This is super aggressive. This is the stock market on steroids times a thousand, okay? So the worst thing to do, okay, is put yourself in a position that you don't understand the ramifications. You're not comfortable in your own skin to maneuver around a market like this, and that's okay. What you can do as well is just sit on the sidelines and watch, okay? And watch, and watch the level too, and watch the price action. You can do a lot of things on a day-to-day basis that you don't need to put your money exposed. Again, you're not used to this. Your brain, again, cannot catch up to the price action to what the market is throwing at you. It's okay to sit out. Nobody's going to think any less of you. It's not a popularity contest. It's about being in business, staying in business, and being solvent. That's very, very important to understand. So going into this week, like I said a few minutes ago, usually I would look at a bunch of charts. The futures are going to destroy every setup, pardon me. The futures come Monday morning, whether they gap down six, seven, eight, nine hundred points on Apple, or somehow negate that and start going higher. Whatever setup you're looking at right now, okay, during the weekend, it's going to be compromised on Monday. If we gap down, your long trade that you're watching is going to be eight, nine, twelve dollars out of the money. If we gap up, the stock that you were looking at that you wanted to buy is going to be up five, seven, eight, nine, ten dollars. So the idea of looking at charts this weekend is good just to kind of mentally keep you sharp. But again, if I thought Amazon was a short and the market gaps down nine hundred points, it's down seventy, eighty points. How is that going to help me? So that's kind of my point. This is the only time that, again, the daily chart's not going to help you. What is going to help you, again, if you trade channels, I trade channels. That's all we do. I trade channels and I wait for them to develop. This is the purest form of taking advantage of market intervals right now. Again, if you look at the daily chart, how are you going to trade off of it? Doesn't even make sense. So again, you have to figure out what's working, you have to figure out what's not working, and then you start breaking down what's working, right? So for me, the opening channels are making sense. The afternoon I'm kind of trying to stay away from unless something's really, really tight that I've been watching. So it's very, very important. It's kind of very, very important to understand where the smoothest, the most seamless part getting into the end zone is right now. So if you look back on Friday's session, again, very, you know, very explosive session. So we gap up, right? We gap up 800, 900 points, 1,000 points, 1,200, whatever it was. And, you know, I knew right away, you know, I knew right away the play, the initial play, the initial play is to the downside, right? Initial value to the downside, game plan as usual, wait for the channels to form and confirm, take cash flow along the way, break even as you stop. Again, like I said, you know, we're working overtime. We're doing incredibly, incredibly long hours making sure I answer everybody's questions, make sure everybody's calm, make sure everybody is in the right frame of mind and nobody's stressed out. So I'm doing a lot of legwork to make sure everybody's comfortable, okay? And the most important part is all I ask and return from people, especially in the live webinar that I interact with every single day, just don't do anything that's going to compromise what you're looking to do long term. As long as you're trading within your, you know, within your game plan, within your comfort zone, you're going to be okay. So I put in a bunch of candles, excuse me, I put in a bunch of pivots in the morning, right? I put in a bunch of pivots in the morning. These are all to the upside and we'll get back to that in a second, okay? We'll get back to none of these things triggered at the open. Again, so I said, I put these levels in just in case we get confirmation later to the upside. Stay patient could be tricky. So we're looking for that initial value down, okay? And so here is that. So the first trade of the day was Roku, right? Roku, this is the first one, the cracked. Roku, if it builds below, can flush, okay? I thought 7820s was going to be the first support here. You'll see in a second here. So I thought 7820s was the first support. So here's Roku. If it builds 80, it can flush. So here is the Roku pivot, right? Here's $80 on Roku, right? Here's the 80 right here and excuse me, it was right here. So it broke the 80 and here's the 78. It went down to 7780 and then it confirmed it got destroyed. We'll talk about that destruction in a second and a few others. So really strong pivot to start the day. We'll get back into Facebook. This thing triggered after Trump spoke. So here were the massacres, okay? Absolute massacres. And I kept on tweeting them one after another after another. I said, hey, guys, watch Tesla. Watch Netflix if they confirm. Watch the video if we confirm. These things confirm they're going to get hit. And you saw, you know, we went from the Dow up a thousand to Dow up 300. And you can imagine how aggressive these polls were. So here's, you know, one by one. Tesla 561, if it builds below, can flush. That was an understatement, okay? The word flush was an absolute understatement. So here is the 561. Everybody see this? Here is the 561 destroyed. I mean, this thing went to 502. I mean, absolutely destroyed. Netflix, I caught, no joke, man. I caught three points on Netflix. 40 seconds, 45 seconds, 315 builds. And here's the craziest part about it. A minute later, it went down to 307, right? 315, if it builds below, can flush. Here was Netflix, right? Here's the 315, okay? Here's the 315 right here. You see these two candles, guys? 315, 315. And it went down to 307. Three minutes, four minutes. Just destruction, absolute destruction. And I was sitting there going, wow, I can't believe this thing's down seven. And it's down $4 after I covered it in 45 seconds. Insane, absolutely insane. Disney, 95 builds below, can flush. Here was Disney. And again, I mean, these were going down in dollars. These weren't just going down a little bit. So here's the 95, right? All this was, here's the 95 Disney, right here. 95 right here in Disney. It went down to 92. Disney went down almost 92 and a quarter. Went down to 275 in a matter of five, six minutes. Just insane moves, two to downside. Just one by one by one. And then I catch RCL. But I caught RCL on a halt, which was insane. So I go RCL, red to green, I'll watch. Note that this is not a pivot, just momentum. Maximum 50 cents. Stop, experienced traders only. So I buy RCL and it spikes up, right? We were watching CCL. CCL never went down. Never went down. And CCL started getting stronger. It was up like 70, 80 cents. So RCL went green. I got long. It goes up like 50, 60 cents right away. I sell half. Because again, I always believe in taking money off. There's nothing guaranteed that it's going to go high. It's going to go lower. We're in a crazy market right now. So we're trying to pay ourselves on the way up. So I sell half my position. And then the stock halts. You guys remember that? The stock halts. And it was one of those volatility halts. But I'm not used to these volatility halts. Again, you see volatility halts and that's kind of, it's almost like the equal to a lot of small cap, low flow momentum names. So it's free. I'm freaking out there. I'm saying, it's only crap. I'm halted in the stock. Now what? And luckily it opens up like 80 cents. So I wound up selling my last, my other half up $1, $15, $20. So I was just very happy to get out of the halt. So big move there. Good values so far. Future is starting to wake up. So here's the most important part. There was slow playing the short. So what I mean by that was when they took the market down, down to about down 300, once these stocks started flatlining, they started trickling themselves up. And now everybody was waiting for the Trump, Trump conference. And again, everybody's seen those in the news by then. Before that, I'm sorry, let me give you a couple more pivots. You just see again how aggressive everything was. BYND 73, 20, 73, if it builds below can flush. BYND got destroyed. It just went down like four or five points, literally on one candle. So here is the 73, right? Here is the 73, 20. Look at it went down to 68, 90, just destroyed. I mean incredible pivots. The video held 225 four times if it builds below can flush. Here was the video, right? So here was the two here. You see this one, two, three, four times, right? 225 four times finally cracked, went down all the way down to like 219 and change. So just, I mean, ridiculous, ridiculous moves. Take on the way down, take on the way down beyond 71 went down to 69. Netflix destroyed the video destroyed. And I said, oh my God, look at these moves. And they were happening in literally a couple of minutes. Just amazing, amazing moves. Disney take on the way down, just crazy moves. Just absolutely crazy, crazy moves. Just absolutely sick moves. Just really, really sick moves. And the most amazing part was, remember the pivots I put in the morning, right? Just in case they went back to the upside, right? So they were valid to the upside. You had Zoom never, you know, never rally, it was amazing. Netflix 333 big area needs to reclaim. You could get a move to 336, 337. So here was Netflix, right? Here's the 333 right here, right? 333 right here. It went exactly right to 337, right to supply. You had Facebook, right? You had Facebook, RCL never made it up there. Oh, Apple 268, 268, basically 269 needs to build for a scalp. Here was Apple, the 269, right? 269 just exploded. It went all the way up to 279. I was already done for the day, so I didn't catch any of these longs. And Facebook, I think it was one on Facebook as well. Yeah, you had Disney 101, right? You had Disney 101 back to the upside, right? So you had 101 on Disney. You had 101 to 102 and change. And Facebook was the last one. Yeah, Facebook was the last one. 165 needs to build. So here was Facebook indeed, right? Here's the 165, and it went all the way up to 171. So crazy day. I mean, absolutely crazy day. Again, I do believe, even without, I was even talking about this, even without the Apple announcement, I do believe that we will have more cell side. We'll have some more cell side bias. Again, you have to think of safety right now. You have to think of, you have to think of channel confirmation, waiting for your spots, and taking cash flow along the way up, taking cash flow along the way down, because it's nothing guaranteed. And we are always one headline away from going the other direction. So guys, have an awesome weekend. Get some rest. I know a lot of you guys are bored out of your minds. But again, spend some time, exercise. This is not a death sentence. This is just making us cautious. This is making us more conservative. This is forcing us to have better hygiene, which again we should have in the first place. And the most important part is staying alive. For all you guys who are joining us in the live webinar, please get to Morning Strategy at 9 a.m. If you're joining us via the Twitter feed, I start posting these pivots around five minutes to nine Eastern Standard Time. Guys, God bless. Stay safe. I love you all, and I'll see you all in the field in a moment. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? 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