 it is Tuesday 26th of November. I hope everyone's doing well. I'm just going to do a usual briefing for this morning and starting off just having a quick look at the British pound. I just had some latest opinion polling coming out. You can see the sterling just having a bit of a pullback down towards the lower bound of some of the price action that we had around midday yesterday. So around that kind of 2875 area in the futures. So below pivot already. Just jumping straight into that headline and let's just have a quick look at what's going on and let me just flick over to this is the head analyst at Ransquark and he's just tweeted the update of some of the latest polls and both of them are reflective of a very important thing that's seeing some of the weakness this morning which is a reversal of what some of the opinion polls were suggesting at the weekend. If you remember I think it was the opinion one for Observer. I think it was a 19 point lead. It wasn't one of the most commanding leads we've seen of the Conservative Party over Labour so far. That was at the weekend. However this morning you've had an update most recently by Cantar where the Conservatives are now minus two Labour plus five. So that gap now just nine. There was another poll I saw as well as released yesterday where the gap is seven and then you've had the ICM Reuters one where you've got Conservatives down one at 41 and Labour now 34 up two. So again it's this narrowing of the polls which is being reflective. A little bit of negative at the moment as the Conservative lead just narrows somewhat. So a little bit of downside pressure on the back of those this morning because you can see here from yesterday's price action a little gap up when the futures reopened but it was a decent day of moving from really around a 12850 almost adding a full point to the move and the predominant reason on the back of that was a likelihood of this happening which is the Telegraph is still running this at the moment this morning that the Tories are on course for a pretty resounding majority. The Telegraph this morning saying an 80 seat majority the Sun I think had their calculations at a 68 majority but these latest opinion polls as I've just described would be the opposite of what that's suggesting and consequently just given that was the key reason why this why the pound was rising yesterday then it's an equal force to to pull it back a little bit in today's session so again a little bit of a movement to get things going in the currency market again just looking on a 60 minute candlestick you can see this these areas here where the market has responded to so anything breaking below there probably looking at that s1 which encapsulates really around those highs you can see that we had during the overnight Asia Pacific session and then the eventual break and push that we had yesterday morning to get things underway be in the next area be looking at some key support near term if that downward trend continues in sterling otherwise the other major theme of course is the equity market after yesterday we squeezed out new all-time highs again but Sam is back and he's a he's a bad luck charm for equities because he's such a bull that I'm interested to see whether we can sustain this type of move so we just bring in the chart that I had marked up for the s&p 500 for a much broader weekly kind of outlook and you can see here we managed to just get above that top end of the the kind of trend channel from major lie then the all-time high that we printed just back a few well 19th of November a few sessions ago we did briefly break above that in the Asia Pacific session however the markets immediately pulled back and so at the moment those technical levels still very much in play for the time being yesterday's equity appreciation of course based on a couple of different things really the sentiment surrounding some of the pro-democracy local election results looking to potentially just put a bit of a break on the escalating violence we've had in Hong Kong we've had positive developments over still what seemingly is progression on the phase one conclusion to trade deal in US and China and then we had those big corporate deals LVMH's planned takeover of Tiffany for just shy of 17 billion dollars and then Charles Schwab's 26 billion dollar deal to combine with TD Ameritrade I think there's one as well for Novartis so lots of kind of M&A activity just helping the kind of bullish sentiment and helping some of that move but you can see here that actual little blip that we had was overnight in the Asia Pacific session so light volumes and if we just put this on a five minute to have a look I would say if anything that's probably just a bit of a a technical break of a level doesn't appear that there was one singular headline that came out overnight to perhaps break that I mean I'm just looking on the headline feed there was a headline around that time that China and US trade negotiators held a phone call and reached a consensus on solving issues while they agreed to keep in contact regarding phase one so it looks like that's when basically this story broke and hit the tape so if I just make this a bit bigger so you can see the headlines I'm talking about this was the the one you can see here the timestamp was around 158 I think it actually hit the news terminal on Bloomberg about 10 minutes prior to the website and so it was just talking about the positive developments a second phone call that's happened in a short amount of time with the vice premier of China and the trade and treasury secretaries respectively of the US and so that's what contributed to that little overnight blip but as you can see and I think quite rightly so after that move accentuated I think by the top end break of that that trend channel we're looking at technically to hit those all-time highs the market has pulled back and kind of consolidated consolidated if anything and that's because I don't think that news story really brings anything new to the table looking at where we're trading at the moment just in a on a 30 minute candle I'd say taking into account the the break that we had you know it was definitely the cash equity open yesterday on the nizy saw a real surge in market volume and that we just fired up across all three indices on the back of that move and so I guess it's more about now if we were to pull back where do we where could we pull back to so if I just moved that ellipse from the news story overnight I'd say near term you've got that initial test with the early birds coming in in Europe that level there before the eventual move highest in the Asia Pacific session and around the resistance point that we're seeing on the push the first hour of trade on the nizy last night and anything below there probably coming back down towards pivot would be another reasonable area on the pullback still to say that if all things remain equal which I am at least buying anything unexpected I'm looking for at the moment then I still expect this kind of market to be supported up and around consolidating going into the the Black Friday kind of Thanksgiving holiday period at these near all-time high levels so really support zones kind of seen around here and here on any further pullback and then if we get further down towards the top end of that the price range that we had through the Asia Pacific and European session prior to the open yesterday so again not that I'd be looking to get too aggressive or or positive about pushing up again from here aggressively getting getting long but I think if we did come back down I think it would be more prudent to be on the long buyer still even though we're at these elevated levels but predominantly looking for consolidations as said from these levels other asset classes because obviously Sam's back so he can talk about his thoughts it's always good as well when someone's been off the desk for a few days for them to to look at things quite fresh to see what they're looking at so I'd be interested to see what he has to say but otherwise elsewhere and the other asset classes at the open this morning pretty quiet um t-notes basically going sideways overnight nothing substantial going on pretty much mimicking the movement at WCI crude as well both those respective instruments are basically trading flat in the currency markets dollar index is flat as to then respective in euro dollar sub its pivot in the futures it's really sterling weakness that's seen that that little cable dip this morning and then the DAX a touch softer as to in the euro stocks the DAX already the left chart here below its pivot but again I think perhaps then after that surge that we had yesterday the little follow through with the release of that Bloomberg article overnight so I think it's pretty I don't think it's news based it's more just a natural closing out perhaps some of those short-term lungs so a little bit of a pullback maybe warranted the other thing that we had overnight uh feds powell did speak uh so here he is the main man of the federal reserve he held his first speech having had that impromptu conversation with the treasury secretary munition and he was president trump last week and what did he say well he was pretty pretty upbeat actually he was talking about the glass is more than half full it could continue to do so generally intonating that they've done the right thing in terms of markets now expectation that they're going to hold for the time being saying that rates at the right level until the fed sees a material change so again keeping optionality on both sides whether or not to cut or to to hike in the future whatever that might be but all dependent on how the economy evolves and develops over time so I think really too shocking if anything I guess it just reaffirms the current market expectations about where they're at with the fed expectations and with that note let's just have a quick look at how the short end is pricing in the next interest rate change so the next meeting for the fed obviously happens on 11th of December odds on completely here 94 that we're going to remain on hold the next actual interest rate change is not actually anticipated well if we follow this out I think we're going to have to go way further out probably if we get to September November 2020 so November 2020 markets price perhaps for a 25 cut and so really on hold for the foreseeable future up until really another 12 months time but obviously these things are subject to quite large change depending on the macro environment other than that I mean that's pretty much it for me to say on my part it's not a great deal of really new information coming out so let me just jump straight to the economic calendar what have we got coming out for the rest of the session today and it's particularly quiet if you're trading in the the UK European morning so do bear that in mind and also keep in mind that yesterday was was relatively quiet overall but today and tomorrow we do in particularly Wednesday there's a distinct pickup in the amount and volume of North American data particularly out of the United States because they're trying to front load ahead of the Thanksgiving shutdown because most traders as I said yesterday don't return for Friday so definitely it's going to be a US centric session today just given the lack of calendar queues that you've got coming up for the morning so for the US session and no kind of major 130s these would be you've got trade the advanced good trade balance number the building permits of the of the revisions you do though have in the afternoon consumer confidence in new home sales coming out at 3 p.m. London and then you've got the Richmond Fed composite index as well the weekly all inventories of course from the API later on after the kind of market closed so to speak a couple of Fed speakers though or ECB as well but I should mention DeGuindos is speaking it around now coer later ECB's chief economist Lane is speaking as well this morning and as to Fed's brain art of voter kind of neutral leaning dovish stance speaking at the Fed's review of monetary policy strategy tools and communication and I'll be later on at 6 p.m. so other than that it is a quite a a quiet open so I'm not going to speak more than is necessary I'm going to hand you over to Sam before I do though don't forget if you are watching this on YouTube don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel for more daily updates okay guys thanks very much hi guys good morning I was doing well I'm about a quick look over at the pounders you can see we did this push low this morning but coming to a pretty good area 28-75 which and it's got marked up here and we'd really be keeping a watch on what goes on around there as a good line in the sand of course if that was to go S1 comes into play which is pretty interesting as a decent point from yesterday early morning and and then you're looking really at that sort of that gap from overnight on the weekend as well and well but below there it would get pretty tasty along with this double triple bottom if you want to call it from going back to the mid part early part of November as well so the pound failing to by the looks of it yes they really confirm a push above of 129 and since then it has dropped lower we're keeping as well and watch if we just move this down now you could call it the pivot as well but it's looking just a bit above it 128-97 just below 129 as an area where you would expect the sellers to want to try and protect as well as that looking at a trend line from yesterday's highs to today's highs as well so prices getting squeezed in from the top there breaking 129 to the downside keeping an eye on that and then literally where we're trading now 128-75 S1 and the gap closed for the pound would be the main levels that I'd be focusing on euro not too surprising to see here drifting lower again just after you thought it might be pushing on and keeping a watch of course on what is the previous low from the 14th just below where we're trading here 110-95 and it does seem that every time we do push on we do come back lower so with that you know it's worth having a look to see if there was any you know trend lines that coming into play because it's relatively messy around there to be honest but the low that we had on the 14th as well worth having on this one from the 8th as if we were to have a strong day to the downside like we've had over the last couple of trading sessions those would be the main levels that I would keep a watch on as well from where we're trading the highs from yesterday that would be keeping an eye on 110-39 and 110-47 no real trend lines to be aware of I'd say from those highs the pivot of course this morning been tested in the early hours what time we talking there 6.15 so keeping a watch on that if it was to come up again and just have a look at that there so yeah this is pretty worth having on here just from the the downside low of the day and then a really couple recent lows as well so looking at that potentially for a break lower to target this area from yesterday we can see the buyers have taken over quite a lot around 110-20 as well there so keeping a watch on those points and a look over at goal we'll put this on a 240 you can see I mean just we were talking yesterday about how important that 1480 level was and didn't quite get there did it but I was that mean five ticks away was it five ticks away I eight ticks away to shows how key that area was and the sellers then have taken over and we've come back down to test these these lows here and since literally hitting that point we have just been drifting down so similar to the euro and keeping an eye on the pivot because it would be another time that we've come to test it you've got quite a lot of key resistance just above where we're trading below I should say R1 1459.4 that'd be the next key level that I'd be looking at to the down to the upside for the bears to control and an overall drift this market lower still of course that's helped by the fact that stocks have been pushing higher which just seems to be the common play at the moment so the goal keeping eye on the pivot just because of the recent test that we had come in again to test that now and then above here looking at yesterday initial low then some nice resistance yesterday and also the R1 that would be the the key point that I'd be looking at if we were to have a stronger move to the downside just got to be aware of those lows that we had from the middle to beginning of the month the 11th 12th of November 1450 that kind of area there yes and Pete as I said it's been drifting higher that trend line going back to the previous all-time high that we had back in May so we are above that but still keep that that on just bringing that into picture one second just bringing that one on from May here now you can see we did get above there briefly again this morning to find a bit of support back on that point as well to be keeping an eye on any potential trend lines that are also going to the upside if we were to have a stronger push you can see if we put this just down to the 60 minute timeframe around the pivot you can have a a decent area of support potentially with some lows that we had from yesterday below there the S1 also looks pretty good where we had a strong push yesterday following the cash open so be keeping a watch what happens on that point and then any potential bigger move to the downside just got to always have about have marked up I should say the the gap from where we get higher on the weekend and of course if that was to get filled back down to awards 31 12 as well so some important levels to the downside to the upside is keeping an eye on these potential trend lines to come marked up and of course by by the time that we get tested we'd be trading around 31 54 which is quite remarkable to think about that but seems to be like I said the common play at the moment to the upside closer to where we're trading probably worth having on this trend here to see that getting squeezed in but yesterday's high initial high had just been tested as low for now and also a retest of that trend so keeping a watch on that oil couldn't really we can see yesterday this morning close above yesterday's high we had a couple of tests of doing that around 58 which has been that all important area going back here now for quite quite some time we had a main attempt you can see on 27 to get above that but closing below and yesterday could not get above there either so relatively quiet morning has to be said for oil to the downside we'll be looking at yesterday's low which is also that high from the 20th called it as well the low from the 22nd and the s1 is a real key important zone for the bears to take over would expect a quick move down to 57 if that was to break the pivot relatively choppy from yesterday's price action so we'd almost be leaving that alone and I think here for for oil it'd almost be yesterday's high and the s1 that I'd actually be interested in getting involved the low from today 5784 you would have marked up for sure and it might be the way to look at this because like I said the pivot is quite choppy the only real play here to be waiting for that to break and and using that as a bit of resistance going forward for a further move to the downside sort of targeting that s1 the decks on the open just pushing lower but come back to test that pivot as an every resistance keeping a watch of course on that previous low just before the pivot as that main resistance as well keeping an eye as well if we heard to have a further move to the downside the gap fuel as well that we could potentially see in EU equities as well any questions as usual of course please do let us know a couple of interesting levels out there but as I mentioned relatively quiet this morning before it picks up into the afternoon as well I hope you'll have a good trading day and I'll catch you all in the chat