 All right, very good morning. Hope everyone had a great weekend. It's Monday, the second of December. And so usual routine for the look ahead. Next couple of trading sessions, what have we got on the agenda? So I'm gonna run through this calendar shortly. But before I do, let's just have a look at the charts and the general open in UK and Europe this morning. You can see quite a distinct pattern here. Gold, as I'm speaking top right, is printing fresh session loads, testing down at the S1 down of a loss of $10 already this morning. The US 10 year bottom right down 15 ticks at session loads. Buns are down about 70 ticks and equity index futures are positive this morning. A little bit of a move lower initially, but just moving to the upside as I speak. So you've got stocks moving up and you can see here, if you're looking on the right hand side of my charts, given the mixed asset classes I've got represented here, you can see almost a perfect inverse correlation between stocks and bonds. So here, equities moving higher and then T-notes and gold moving lower. In summary, and gonna go into these in more details, you've had solid Chinese data over the weekend and overnight on the manufacturing activity. In fact, the number that came out was a three year, kind of the best number we've had in three years. We've also had some developments over in mainland Europe in Germany where the leftist duo have come out with a shock victory taking control of the SPD. And I'll go into the implications of what that means, but essentially a push potentially for way more fiscal public spending in Germany. And that's likely to fire up then German yields. So the bund under quite severe pressure this morning. So kind of a combination of those things elsewhere. You can see we've had a gap down in the cable chart as well. This comes after narrowing in the polls. There's been five released over the weekend, quite a large divergence between them. But the one that a lot of people are focusing on is the one out of the BMG and the conservative leaders now narrow to just six points. So you can see we've gapped down in the reopening of Sterling Futures and we've pretty much exed out the entire gain that was seen from that UGOV MRP poll that we had this time last week. Elsewhere WTI crude, it's up about a dollar actually this morning, which is a pretty decent move already. And we've reclaimed the $56 handle, but don't forget a lot of this is just a bit of a natural bounce from the pretty severe sell-off we had at the end of last week. You know, kind of a number of factors here. The expectation about whether or not there'll be any decisions from OPEC to further deepen their cuts. We had technical breaks. We had very illiquid trading conditions because of the Thanksgiving holiday and the lack of U.S. participation. So a number of factors there, prompting that aggressive sell-off and of course the production levels in the U.S. back to record highs as well. However, bit of a bounce and we've also had some comments out of Iraq over the weekend. They've been talking about the necessity for OPEC Plus to mull more cuts as changed a little bit the narrative going into the OPEC meeting that's happening later on this week. So that's the overall kind of sentiment set up for the charts. You've got slightly firmer equities, pressuring then fixed income markets and gold. So mild risk on given the Chinese data, given the domestic politics happening in Germany as well, which is having quite a big impact in European yields, particularly that of Germany, are in focus as well as the latest polls in the U.K. So let's jump straight into some of the headlines in our circle back to that calendar in a moment. Here is that Chinese data. So Chinese manufacturing expands at the fastest pace in three years. Improved data coming, of course, despite what has been falling business confidence with the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks. A separate official reading of manufacturing activity released on Saturday showed a return to growth for the first time in seven months. So remember, with the manufacturing PMIs, there's the Cation reading, which is this one, which is the private reading, and then you have the state reading, the official reading, and that came out on Saturday. So the official reading from the government, this is what it looks like. And as you can see, a move back above the psychologically important expansionary figure of 50. So we had been in contraction in Chinese manufacturing PMI for several months, not since going back to really March time of this year, have we been into this type of territory in a 50-plus region? So pretty decent bounce here, and that's helping lift some of the equity markets both overnight in the Asia-Pacific session and first thing this morning. However, it does come with one small caveat, and that is, of course, the biggest macro risk still remains that of the ongoing trade war. And this is a comment that came out overnight and something to be aware of. The actual detail here is a trade deal between the U.S. and China has now, quote, stalled because of Hong Kong legislation. According to a news website overnight, citing a source close to U.S. President Trump's negotiating team. You remember, there was a bit of shock that there was almost unanimous bipartisan support on Capitol Hill in Washington to back the pro-democracy protests that had been happening for several months in Hong Kong and Trump last week signed that into official legislation and apparently now some of the undisclosed sources, so not yet official comment, have said that basically this deal has stalled. Now, the reason why the market isn't just dropping on the back of this story is I think we were kind of of this opinion anyway last week stalled doesn't mean collapsed. And I think that's the way that I would interpret this news. Stalled might mean then that for the moment, this just prolongs the existing kind of impasse for a little bit longer, but of course the 15th of December will be the most nearest term milestone that something's got to give because that's when the next initiation of the around of renewed tariffs on the U.S. on China comes into effect. So something's got to give over the next two weeks, but as is the way of negotiation, I probably wouldn't expect that to happen or movement on let's say a temporary delayment and kind of kicking the can down the road as we've seen many times before as my base case scenario or view. That probably won't happen until perhaps December 13th, 14th type timeframe. This is what's happening in Germany just to give you a bit of an overview because it might not be something that you typically would follow that closely. So what we have here is these two. This is the leftist duo of Saskia Eskin and Norbert Walter Borgens. They won a shock victory to take control of the center left social Democrats, otherwise known as the SPD on Saturday. They defeated a centrist pair led by finance minister Olaf Scholz. So here you've got a leftist group now taking over from a centrist and these are very important because it forms then part of the coalition that runs the German government. Now Mr. Eskin has suggested he would be willing to stay in a pact with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, but only if the CDU agreed to half a trillion euros in public spending on key infrastructure over the next decade. So very kind of reminiscent, I guess, of this kind of Jeremy Corbyn approach of substantial government spending. Now the main thing that this would have, of course, in terms of the way markets are reacting is implications for a country like Germany, which is traditionally always run a surplus, but if they start to borrow more money and start to really fire up their economy, of which has been somewhat depressed by the trade war, the uncertainty on Brexit and so on, then technically speaking, you would expect then yields to reflect that by moving higher, a very different situation to say the UK in terms of its current debt situation. And so, buns heavily down this morning, lower by about 75 ticks or so, and in sympathy then, as kind of read across into gilts and tea notes are down about 16 and a half ticks as well this morning. But that, I'd say, in combination with the Chinese data is helping exacerbate some of that yield movement this morning. Other things to have a look at. This is something of which I was talking about originally as soon as that Ugov MRP poll came out. I mean, I was quite forceful in my opinion that I thought that people were a little bit overestimating a poll that's two weeks out or more than two weeks out from the actual day of election. Definitely, I think polls, as we get closer towards the deadline, the D-day of the election on the 12th that could become more and more influential, but the base view is materializing of which is the polls are narrowing. And the latest one, well, let me just have a look here and you can see all of them in one shot. This is everything that came out over the weekend. So we got a bit of a split. The opinion poll for the observer had the Tories ahead by 15. The Delta poll, Tories ahead 13. Comrades in the Sunday Telegraph, Tories ahead 10. Ugov, Sunday Times, Tories ahead nine. And the BMG, which is the one, of course, to all the news agencies are latching on to, came out on Saturday and the Independent had the Tories ahead by six. So a couple of things to keep an eye out for this week. And that is more polls, of course, but we do have this happening. I did tweet this. This is the full kind of agenda for the NATO Leaders Summit happening at the Grove Hotel in Hertfordshire, starting a bit later on in the week. So Trump actually does arrive in Britain today. He's been silent so far in respect of that incident that happened on London Bridge in the city on Friday. But obviously a lot of people are gonna be watching what he has to say and also the relationship of which Boris Johnson has in particular focus on things like the NHS and future trade relationships. So that could be quite influential for how the public's perception is of Boris Johnson as we go through this event. So I believe the schedule, kind of the main events are that Trump and all the other leaders will be having a bit of a champagne reception at Buckingham Palace on Tuesday night, and then the actual event gets going on Tuesday and Wednesday. But there's a full agenda if you wanna have a look at it on my Twitter account. Other than that, the other thing I wanted to mention was this. We do have an OPEC meeting happening at the second half of this week. And you'll remember, Saudi Arabia, we're trying to put the pressure on the likes of non-OPEC members to start stepping up to the plate. So the existing deal, may I remind you then, is stipulating supply cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day for OPEC, but it expires, importantly, at the end of March 2020. So that deadline is approaching for the current deal. Now, officials will decide later this week whether these curbs need to be extended or possibly deepened. Analysts expect the current deal to be dragged out into the middle of 2020 or even beyond with certain countries pushing for greater compliance. I was reading this morning, I think Russia, of course, which is absolutely pivotal as the second largest producer of crude oil on the planet, but also the major player in the non-OPEC sides, OPEC+, I think they've not been compliant with their agreed supply cut level for the last several months. And so that's why Saudi have been ramping up the rhetoric at the end of last week as we covered in the briefings. The main comment that's come out this morning is from Iraq. Iraq have said the OPEC and its allies will consider deeper production cuts, although these comments come after the coalition has widely signalled reluctance to take such action. So don't forget, Iraq is a country which has suffered mightily under the stress of Islamic terrorism over the last decade. They have been the least compliant of nearly every oil producing nation because of that fact. So I think it is not surprising at all to hear such commentary out of Iraq. I'd say the consensus is that they might be hinting towards the current deal being rolled over. I think at the moment, it's lesser likely that they'll deepen the cut to fulfill the request of Iraq, even though there might be other countries that might be willing to do so. I don't think that Saudi and the others will agree, essentially. When is this happening? When is this all taking place? Well, here's the calendar. So the actual OPEC meeting, it's a two-day meeting. Day one is on Thursday, as you can see here. Day two then, when they have the official press conference will be on Friday. If you are trading crude oil and if you're a fairly new trader, don't forget that OPEC meetings, although the official press conference held by the Secretary General is not until the Friday afternoon, you will know quite definitively the outcome of that meeting even before the first meeting is held. Very different from a central bank in the way in which they communicate how organized and efficient they are and the way that they have hold their press conferences and closed door meetings. With OPEC, all the oil ministers will ascend on Vienna and you will already know all of the comments and decisions before, well before. And so therefore, prices will be reacting earlier in the week. And by Wednesday night, we'll pretty much have clarity on what the end decision will be. So do bear that in mind. Otherwise, just a quick review of the overall kind of feel for the calendar. So today you do have UK manufacturing PMI coming out a bit later. So we get the whole kind of manufacturing PMI update across the globe because later on this afternoon, we'll also get the ISM manufacturing PMI and don't forget the Americans back after their Thanksgiving holiday as well. So business as usual. We do have some central bank decisions happening this week. We've got the RBA. Now it'll be overnight tonight going to Tuesday. And then you've got the Bank of Canada as well happening on Wednesday. Both those expected to remain on hold in terms of their actual interest rate. Other things of significance. ECB President Christine Lagarde testifies the Parliament a bit later on today. You also have then the various different job indicators coming out of the US. So ADP on Wednesday. You get ISM non-manufacturing PMI on Wednesday as well as the service PMI in the UK. You've got US factory orders on Thursday. And then of course, first Friday of the month, US non-farm payrolls is happening on Friday just as a heads up. Don't forget to subscribe to our YouTube channel and we're going to be covering that Sam and I live for non-farm payrolls to hopefully be able to join us one 30 London time. And then if you saw the ITV debate last night for the build up for the UK general election, there's another debate, but really these are the two main contenders. You've got Boris Johnson going head to head against Jeremy Corbyn in the BBC leaders debate and that will be on Friday night. Okay, that is it from my side. Gonna hand you over to Sam. He can go over the charts and we'll be sending out the weekly strategy as per normal a bit later on this morning. Thanks very much. Yeah, hi guys. Hope everyone had a good weekend. Especially those in America for Thanksgiving and Happy Cyber Monday, of course today. We'll have a quick look over at some of the fixed income charts. The burden's coming under some pressure this morning as Zant was mentioning. And I'll just move this chart just to the right hand side. You can see the level we're trading at now is incredibly important. The low that we had back on the morning, pretty much exactly where we are the time we're trading now, but back on the 22nd, you can see since then price has just pushed higher, gone into a bit of a range. We broke down past that lower part of the range this morning and we're just testing that area now. So 170, 31, certainly a point to keep an eye on from a horizontal area of support. And even going back to previous days other than that 22nd, you can see the importance here again on the 13th and then both on the 5th and the 6th as an area of support. So historically over the month of November, that area was pretty important. And again, coming now into December. So keep a watch on that. Obviously down quite a fair bit today down already 71, 72. Just seeing a bit of a push higher in Euro stocks as well, which is a bit unusual, but to see the pace of this move, but just coming to the top end of that range. We'll come back to stocks in a moment, T-notes down as well under pressure. It's broken the key point from the 18th, which is also again quite a key level at the beginning of November. So keeping a watch on safe havens here and certainly the bonds and fixed income market are the ones that are really struggling here. T-notes would be looking down for the lower the 13th, which was the higher the 8th as a potential area of support, but a decent move lower in early trade. And that has dragged through a bit to your gold markets, which you can see had another go last week at the back end of last week, getting to that area support where we saw the breakdown through couldn't close above. And now we're back down to where we were in the beginning part of Friday's session. And just this whole area, just below where we're trading, let's call it 1460, is going to be very important, not just today, but for the week as well. A lot of areas where the buyer's taken over and we pushed on, and so a close below there, well, could get quite ugly, you would imagine, and you therefore get a test of what was the low of November looking at 1450 freeze, a 1460 very much a key level for gold. However, the last few times we have come to this point, we have pushed higher quite aggressively on a couple of occasions. So people watch on that stocks. This morning we pushed higher in very early trade and we've just done so again now. And you can see just that spike coming through. I don't know if there's necessarily been a comment over the wires, but yeah, decent start for equity markets there. Popping above their highs, Europe leading that way and we just made a new all-time high there in the S&P of 3157. What's going to stop this market at the moment? Doesn't seem too much perhaps. And that level we were talking about on, well, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, the lower part of that range around 3141 has been incredible. So when looking at gold coming to that 1460 area, just be aware that even though it is coming down for the 4th, 5th, 6th time of asking, well, the importance you can see here of just how good a level support can be. So really waiting for that confirmation. Probably the best thing to go about here. So above the previous all-time high, just coming down to retest that now along with what was the previous high of the day in Asian Session Trade around 3154. So keep a watch on that. Relatively technical. It has to be said so far this morning, 3150, a break of that early trade retested not long ago has actually a good level of support. But stocks just spiking higher in early trade. The Euro has had a quick look. We had a big move lower yesterday, yesterday on Friday, only to come and test what was the first retest of the low of the 8th of October. And then that led to a decent push higher, almost the top end of the, well, yeah, there you go, top end of that new range. So if you're keeping a watch on this level for the week, one 1038 and a half, one 1040 to sort of cap resistance. And obviously that lower point where we did hit the low, the 8th at 109.90 around that point as well. So keep a watch on that lower timeframe, the pivot and just a bit above it will be significant with some good resistance there on Friday before the push through. So that coming in on the futures around one 1022 and with the pivot below it. We'd also still pay some attention to what was the original low that we had back on Friday morning. So around there, around one 1011. And of course you've got the handle just below the S1. So for Euro today, those would be the points we'd be keeping an eye on the top end of that range just above the pivot and then round one 1011. The pound this morning, gapping lower. We didn't quite feel that gap. So again, something to keep an eye on the lower part of the range today was also the lowest point of the sort of closing price that we saw on Friday, that coming in around 129.14. So keep a watch on that as well with any of these markets that are just getting squeezed in always worth having on potential trend lines is to see how we would trade. So for the pound, you can see we're starting to get squeezed from both directions here. So we'd have that on maybe looking for a bigger move as well. While we did chop through it, I'd still have the 129 handle, the S1, the nice six ticks above that area support from Friday marked up as that could be along with this trend line now, quite a key level going into the middle part of the morning. And then obviously the American trade. Gapfield, keep a watch on that. And then this trend line as well for the pound. Polls are ultimately going to drive this market rather than data from either way. Quick look over at the Aussie dollar, just coming to test the top end of that, the top end of yesterday, Friday's trade. So keep a close eye on that. We have been in this down trending market. So whenever we get this, can we find any decent trend lines that are worth having on? You can argue we have broken that this morning, very choppy, it has to be said. And of course, the volume not likely to really be there. The R1 along with the highs that we had back on the 27th look quite a key level as well. So keeping a close watch on that. The Yen this morning coming under pressure as safe havens have done following that move in fixed income. So again, probably favoring this market really to continue its gradual grind lower. And if we put this onto the daily chart, you can see we're training at levels not seen since. Well, if we draw it up now since the second of May. So pretty key point actually, where we're trading here for the Yen. So definitely we'll be keeping a watch on that as well as this trend line which would come in. We put this back onto 60 minute bang on in today's S2. So the trends from the previous lows of the year, keep a watch on that, see how we trade around there for the Yen. Over at oil to wrap it. And we'll have a quick final look at the equity space. Oil just coming to test the top end of that pivot. I've seen a couple of comments from OPEC coming through. OPEC discussing deepening current oil cuts by at least 0.4 million barrels per day, at least until June as two sources saying that. So keep a watch on the pivot. A decent move lower in oil. It has to be said on Friday and in relatively low volume of course the Americans most away for a long weekend. We broke technically this trend where you can see starting on the 25th big move lower, coming down to 55 bucks on the dot. Also nearly testing the low of the 20th and we've had a dollar push already since then. Keep a watch on the pivot. But if we do get above that, of course with these kinds of moves, you know, gotta keep a watch on any of these previous lows that we've obviously broken through on Friday and they could act as a resistance point. Not the worst idea in the world to put a little fit on that as well to see how we're trading. The DAX, as you'd expect, the Eurostocks and Eurosequities pushing higher, worth keeping an eye just on that high of the day today. Top end of that range. We did break out in, well, the back end of a couple of weeks ago. However, we're still, you would have to say, in this overall choppy range, but that's not necessarily sure in where it wants to go. As usual, any questions, please do let us know. We'll get the weekly strategy out as soon as possible. Looking at some of these charts in a longer timeframe. Just keep a watch short-term right now on the 1460 foot gold, the previous all-time high for the S&P. Eurose got a few neat, nice levels just above where we're trading and the pound for that potential gap bill and oil around the pivot. Safe havens under pressure, the bund on a key point, and the yen and T-notes a bit further to go before some real support does come in. Hope you'll have a good trading day and even better week ahead.