 Okay, let's get things started. My name is Jasper Lawler, Mark Analyst here. I'm taking over from Michael Houston, who typically does these webinars just looking at what's coming up for the week. Now, we've just got this risk warning. I'm sure you've all read it by now. Let's bring it through to the next page. Okay, all right. Something I was just having a little look at now. But what I'm going to do here is look at just a few key economic data releases coming up for the week, and then taking some charts. And if you could now, or any point during the presentation when you feel like it, send me a little message as to which products you're exactly interested in, what you've got your eye on at the moment, or just what you always trade, be it Euro, DAX, Dolly N, whatever it is you're looking at. Send me a quick note and I'll make sure to cover it. So I just made this note in our Insights column. And obviously there's a lot more data than this that's coming out for the week. But this, I think, is the kind of key market driving data, depending on which market you're trading, obviously, that you want to keep an eye on. Now we've already had the German industrial production. That was actually better than expected today, and not really helping the DAX. That's still down half a percent. But given the Euro a little bit, really in terms of the stock indices, they're just following through from last week when we had that non-farm payrolls miss. What you'll see about that report is that the market did initially react quite well to the report, because it wasn't really a bad report. In case you've read the morning note on the USA burn or the UK open today, the previous two months were revised higher, and it literally narrowly missed by just a few thousand. And very close to 200,000 jobs. It generally was a good report. My personal take on it is that the S&P pushed up towards 1900, and people just took profits going into the weekend because of that slight miss and better safe and sorry kind of policies. More sort of rebound from that round number after a week of gains. It's got to correct at some point, and people use that rally after that report as a chance to settle it off. So keep that in mind. There's not been any kind of seismic shift in U.S. economic data. It's really, as expected, and the timeline for tapering the U.S. asset purchases by the Fed really should be as expected as previously thought before the report because the cause of this rally in stocks throughout the week was basically Janet Liel and sort of backtracking on her statement that she had made previously, about six months being a possible timeline as to when they would raise interest rates after stopping tapering and just really saying that it's all data dependent and the Fed is going to remain incredibly accommodative for the foreseeable future and it's all sort of data dependent. If you see a slight drop in the data, they may pause tapering and maybe even add to the stimulus again. So that's still the case and the U.S. economy is still sort of steadily improving which is kind of basically wading our way through this first quarter and sort of putting a line under all the first quarter's data and then this month going forward really is when you'd expect the jobs have already kind of held pretty strong but you want to see some of the other data from the U.S. improving as well. So like I said, I think more of a sort of technical correction right now. We'll look at the chart for the S&P a little bit in a second but to me we're 1857. 1850 is definitely going to be key because that's really been a pivotal price. It may dip a bit below that but really if it substantially closes below that we'll probably look at a slightly deeper correction which may not be such a bad thing because if we again when we look at the price action it's been upwards but kind of grinding upwards in a bit sideways and to improve the momentum a bit we may just need a sharper correction to entice some buyers in at lower prices. Back to this insight things that I pulled up. Tomorrow we've got the Bank of Japan monetary policy statement. This is just extra interesting because this month Japan introduced their increase in taxes and so the expectation is that that's going to slow down economic growth in Japan and that eventually the Bank of Japan are going to step in and ease policy further. They're already engaged in QE but that's pretty much priced in at the moment in the N-crosses and the Nikkei so really people are waiting for more QE just for the dollar to go higher against the yen and the Nikkei stock index to go higher but general consensus is that's not going to happen at this meeting just because the central bank doesn't really have the data yet to sort of prove that the sales tax has dampened the growth. Some of the economic indicators out of Japan already have started falling off a little bit so it most likely is going to. The big surprise would be if they did sort of decide to act preemptively ahead of any worsening data and seriously worse data and start easing now but it does seem most likely unlikely but as I've mentioned in the note here the Nikkei and the dollar yen, the other yen-crosses would most likely fly higher if they did announce some further easing. Later tomorrow we've got the UK industrial production. The UK economy is recovering obviously and hence the strength of the pound and the fits he's been generally outperforming most of the indices by the US. One of the things that's been lacking a bit is sort of investment growth. It's been a bit of a sort of consumption led recovery so any improvements in these areas is definitely looked on favorably and you know would be positive when you're trading fits here in the UK shares. Wednesday we've got the trade balance. Again one of the things that's been missing from the UK recovery so far is the growth in exports. The pound has rallied recently as we all know but generally speaking from prior to the financial growth prior to the recession it's still a lot weaker and so that should be feeding through to some better exports but it hasn't really done so. It doesn't speak to the sort of growth in kind of quality of UK manufacturing and produce that you would hope for as the recovery is investing and improving after the recession. So any uptake there again is definitely looked on widely. The trade balance as a whole is you really want to look deeper within the data more to the exports to take the positive survey from that one. The more meaningful data. Then later on Wednesday we've got the Fed minutes and that would just be interesting because obviously there has been a bit of back and forth. Janet Yellen at one point was sounding quite hawkish saying that six months after the end of tapering with zero raises then a few Fed officials came out in support of that. Bullard even said that that's in line with private surveys but then this statement last week which caused this rally which I was just talking about before was really ultra dovish the meeting that she had, the speech that she gave rather and so this will just be interesting to see how her sort of ultra dovish speech lines up with these other Fed members to give us a bit more of an idea as to when they're going to stop the tapering firstly if they do and then when they're going to raise rates afterwards. Obviously I'm sure you all understand this but for the general idea being that low interest rates obviously spur on investment and they make bonds relatively unattractive and so they generally keep stocks higher. So the closer we get to raising interest rates then that's just generally speaking bad for stocks. The reason the markets are still kind of generally trending high at the moment is because the positive U.S. growth is sort of outweighing the negative impact of raising interest rates so that's what you're kind of balancing the two. You want better growth, GDP growth and you want higher employment, all these kind of positive numbers to outweigh the fact that they are going to be raising interest rates. So obviously when the economy is improving obviously that overshadows higher interest rates because it's improving the higher interest rates are kind of like the causation of the economy that might cause the economy to start lagging off so it's kind of causing effect indicators. At some point in time the higher interest rates are going to cause the economy to slow down but it's kind of lagged effect and stocks should stay higher a bit after the raise at rates based on historically typically the way it works. Thursday is big if you trade the Aussie dollar or the Aussie index. Basically the Aussie, you may have seen a report I did on the inverse head and shoulders of the Aussie dollar that kind of caused a breakout there with some positive numbers from last month and so if you see some good numbers again today beating expectations well or it depends if they're going to be in line with expectations probably not a massive move but a good beat should help the RBA, the Reserve Bank of Australia stay fairly neutral in their statements and not jaw bone the Australian dollar down too much and so that would generally be positive for the Aussie and generally again we can have a look at the charts but the inverse head and shoulders I pointed out it's not reached its measured objective yet that you would typically see from that pattern so this may be the impetus to take the Aussie above 93 and then push it close to that chart objective. There's a lot of China data this month the one that I've kind of highlighted particularly here is the trade balance because you may remember about a month ago it was this Chinese trade balance that came in way below expectations and caused a kind of general slump in global markets so we may get a repeat performance if this on Thursday Chinese data comes in worse than expected obviously it's not going to be such a shock as it was last time so probably not going to be the massive sell-off that's seen but nevertheless it's not going to be taken too well the one thing I just noted in this insight note here is that expectations are lower this time they're basically for minus 0.9 billion so trade deficit of 0.9 billion so essentially flat so essentially any exports being bigger than imports in any way generally should be seen as positive and maybe that'll undo some of this sell-off that we've seen in stock markets recently. French and industrial data French and Italian industrial data the periphery of Europe is still a bit weak so we just need to see improvements here to have any kind of faith that this rally in the Euro and the DAX is really deserved because it's really throughout this whole recession it's just been Germany holding it up and we have seen some slight signs of improvement Spain actually have 10-year high revenues in tourism so that's a symbol of things that are improving there but still a bit sluggish in general and then Friday we've got the Chinese CPI and GPI and this is a bit of a kind of double-edged sword kind of situation where China are trying to reduce inflation from particularly in the housing market but then again any kind of drop in inflation is sort of symptomatic of a sort of slowdown that's happening there so it's interesting to watch but it's hard to read exactly what the market would use in the U.S. and more positive I'll probably lean towards then wanting to see iron inflation to just show that kind of the growth is better than people thought that's a short term obviously what you want to see, longer term they really do need to be curbing inflation because there's going to be a housing market crash if they don't do that then finally last but not least on Friday we've got the University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the U.S. and consumer sentiment's been generally pretty strong throughout this whole turn down in the U.S. and so we just want to see that continuing because we did see a bit of a slight miss on fire even though I said it's generally a pretty positive report but we did see a slight miss there so if we saw some misses happening in consumer sentiment as well that would be taking a couple of the main pillars that people have been riding off this U.S. recovery okay let me close that down now did any of you send me a message about just which charts you'd want me to go over more than others? It's fine if you don't I've got some defaults I'd look at but I'm sure you all trade specific markets if you want me to cover those of course I'm happy to I thought I might actually just go straight to currencies this time often I start with indices but I thought there was a few interesting things going on with currencies start with a euro now what I tend to do in general when it comes to charts is to kind of top down approach I mean you look at the monthly first strictly speaking but you only have to do that so often really start with a weekly work your way down so this is quite an interesting potential pattern that's setting up here in the euro it would be a sort of bearish wedge whereby this was the kind of crash down that we all remember during the European crisis and this has been the sort of subsequent recovery so I've gone over my timelines a little bit out of whack there but I think you know what I mean this has been a big downturn in the price of the euro this is what could potentially be a big rising wedge pattern which for the most part would mean a big breakout down in this kind of direction certainly far from guaranteed from happening what I suspect might happen is that we've got this first line which has been holding up, yeah there was a break there but it's been holding up pretty well since and we're right at it again what I suspect is maybe this will break this time maybe a little pop higher again then a break and then come in right where there's 200 moving 200 day moving averages for now you've just got to assume that the trend is higher and so you don't really trade off this idea exactly I mean you can put some resting orders down here but you know really no point until the market gets closer but that's what I'm going to suspect it might happen so that's kind of a bigger picture and we've dropped down to the one day chart and so this is where we currently are you know we've had this kind of move down and as far as I can kind of see the move, you know the kind of correction that we're seeing of this trend line area sorry the little bounce we're seeing is off this firstly off this trend line but then also dating back to you know generally what you see is when you're kind of trying to time market and imagine where they're going to where they're going to bounce is that you see a sort of resistance turn to support, support turn to resistance so you know this was resistance broke through came down and used it support a few times I mean nothing's perfect as long as it stays above here it's still an uptrend but generally that's what was acting as support so this is our buy zone but this is the most kind of aggressive buy which is right above this high made up highs didn't hold up this time and you can see these lows were the spur for this to come down here and then you can see here which caused this big momentum move higher in this area is what kind of caused the little bounce there but that hasn't really done enough to push up to the highs in fact now we're through that now we're back down to this high again and then you know below that I'm going to look at this high here as a sort of that was the resistance and then it becomes the support and that's what caused the buy so then if we get down again that's what I'd be expecting to see that as the next potential support and again it doesn't mean it has to perfectly stop here there it did there it didn't here on the other way around there it did it's perfectly going to stop there at this high but again it depends how you look at it nothing's perfect again it could have stopped there which arguably that's the close there in a way it did respect that as well so it depends on whether you're using the highs and lows or the close it's the kind of beginning of this support turns to resistance type area and always keep in mind it's never going to perfectly stop those two pits below this or something just because really as long as it hold in this example when we're looking at this dip as long as it held above that low it's still an uptrend so even at this point it it's come down made a high you know lower high so we're kind of in downtrend territory down and we still are strictly speaking so then when it came down to here yeah it did bounce off this low but it's like it was already trending lower at this point so it's not like that was the first bounce down it bounced made a high lower high than a lower low but it got there so you have to weigh up with these different factors as I see at the moment yes it's made a lower low but have a look just this was the low right here from this reversal pattern here and it only just kind of dip below it it really kind of barely has and this is a hammer that's a hammer that caused the bounce this is another hammer and quite often these hammers cause a reaction higher in the interim so given this is this trend line that we are referred to on a longer turn train and it's this previous resistance turns of support good chance for this it already has bounced obviously but good chance for it moving up into what now this would be the kind of beginning of the kind of momentum change area where it's broken down through there and there would be the next kind of expected area for it to you know if it was going to continue down trend it would probably be from here up to there breakable there obviously it's a game changer it means we made a high high and we're back into kind of up trend territory I wouldn't necessarily buy on a break but there you can obviously the risk the problem of it is that you've got all this down here is your risk so more likely what would happen is you'd get a breakable there and then a dip down towards here somewhere and then that would be your chance to buy in it if you believe this little short term dip has ended now probably go a little bit lower even I tend to stop around the four hour mark but there's kind of a bit more clarity to things you can see it's that was the low and it's really just kind of not really held too well below there and it's just shifting above this one hour 21 day moving average that's a little sea change there that's the 200 hour right there and then you can draw some kind of trend line down there perhaps and that would be a little indication of a short term change in trend so at the moment what I kind of take away here is that it is a down trend in the interim but we just come off some quite significant support as I see it this trend line combined with this kind of resistance turn support area so it could be the beginnings of a move back up to test 139-140 let's have a little look at the dollar yen now this is one of the more interesting set ups at the moment again let's go start with the weekly now I'm sure most of you if you trade the yen have this trend line on here fairly obvious stuff but that is what's important to price and that's what's keeping us bullish at the moment the other factor is this trend line here which as of last week has pretty much been held it's spiked higher and this is a big shooting style reversal pattern here so that's kind of a bearish pattern and what you'll notice is that we actually have a pretty identical looking pattern on the Dow and the dollar yen and the Dow are kind of pretty well correlated at the moment they don't look perfectly the same but they're both displaying kind of similar patterns and our price is above this trend line at the moment so various things to consider the reason I've got this line in here again is I was considering this to be the support to the price based on this weekly chart and you can see that was the first one there and it kind of held there there's a big spike lower than it held and then that was the big drop off that we saw I think that was most likely when we started hearing about Ukraine or maybe that was that Chinese trader I don't remember it was early in the year, it might have been prior to all that so then as you can see the price has kind of come off that with this evening style pattern so generally speaking this is a pretty bearish pattern and it takes a brave soul to trade against that but you have to consider all the different factors let's drop down to the daily chart now this is the reason you might want to trade against it is look at this trend line you'll agree that's pretty perfect right stopped right there on this line and what you could potentially see is is a move up to test 104 and above again if this triangle pattern has essentially worked that's a long-term triangle base but you could arguably have a short-term one here it doesn't fit very well and I haven't put it in but if you assume that was the top of the triangle then you'd be looking for a projection of something like 100 to 104.50 you'd add that on top of here so that's 450 pips you'd be looking about 108.50 as potential price target if this did prove to be the low and right now it's not proving too supportive on the RSI because the RSI has actually moved below this equivalent triangle pattern but again it's nothing's perfect and it may well prove to bounce up towards the 70 overbought level and up into 80 again at the moment RSI is confirming the price moves and there's not showing any particular divergence on this daily chart down to the four hours it's an inside bar a moment on the four hours so nothing too obvious there we are seeing a potential reversal here at the old sold level around 30 on the RSI on the four-hourly so you're probably looking for something a bit more positive above these levels to be feeling a bit more confident about this proving to be a low probably what's likely to happen is something where it kind of comes up a bit and then down again pretty close to these lows to form some kind of reversal in this kind of interim maybe it's going to chop around a bit first before breaking maybe it won't break if you could send me, I don't know if you've sent a message to the group anyone but if you could just send me perhaps a private message if you had some particular market you wanted me to cover because I feel like I'm missing some messages here okay over to the down that's what I had on my chart when we first started to look here and again it's a similar pattern to the dolly end and arguably worse just because these were the highs set at the end of last year and these what we did break in today but it's been a big shooting star reversal last week similar look into the dolly end just because we did, we fell sort of three digits in the doll on Friday and now it's starting to look a bit ominous and you can see it's a similar triangle set up but we're just closer to the highs it's pushed above the highs run a bunch of people stop losses perhaps and then just crashed on down here so again this is a pretty big bearish pattern but we've got to keep in mind that we are still in the context of an uptrend that's still a marginally high high these are higher lows, we're above the moving averages so if we are being bearish it needs to be fairly short term for the time being before we get some wider confirmation now there's a big on Friday we saw a big engulfing candlestick pattern so obviously that's another bearish pattern on the shorter time frame and at the moment this sort of quiver and triangle pattern held up on Friday but it's looking like it might not hold up now the next level will be here I'd have in mind because that's where we saw some movement but then down below this we're not really in uptrend territory anymore and then you need to reassess whether you should be still buying in the short term above that we're still good for buying as long as we don't sort of form a lower high in the meantime if we just drop straight down to this level I'd expect to see some buying even though it did collapse at this longer term level it doesn't necessarily mean it's going to jump straight back up there but you'll at least see some buying interest starting around here I would suspect below that we're down to this level it relates to this high and also you can see it's kind of acted as a key pivotal level here and it's there of course that big inhibitors it was the resistance there broke through came back as support and it's been holding since the big one this 16-140 really okay, yep thanks Peter got your message about the Aussie I'll have a look at that you know just because I really like that that pattern I'm kind of clinging on to that at the moment the Aussie's taken a knock just because it's really a continuation of this RBA statement that we saw last week whereby you know Governor Stevens did still explicitly talk about the Aussie dollar I forget the exact wording but it was something along the lines of the weaker Aussie is still supporting the economy but the slight rise that we've seen recently is starting to impact that something like that so it's almost saying that we're okay for now but we don't like this higher Aussie so it depends how you want to read that I'm kind of hoping to read it as that okay for now aspect of that that will justify a projection from this pattern pointing as higher than the Aussie so this neckline is not exactly perfect and you don't have to be a bit careful with these projections it could maybe be a slanted one down there something more like that it's like more of a consideration I looked at as well which that one doesn't fit very well but then it's sort of it could potentially make it look a bit nutsy up to you you have to be this kind of generalization of these projections but still theoretically if we call the low 87 and we call the high of the pattern 90 past 300 so we've made it I don't know what I'm saying 87 to 91 sorry so that's 400 so we've made it 250 which is 300 perhaps so far so in theory it would be a bit further to go I think maybe up towards this 94-50 the in terms of the daily pattern there was a bullish engulfing thereabouts the bodies at least last Friday and so this is just a correction from this range and I don't know if you can understand this range for until the Aussie unemployment data later in the week it might do maybe that would be the cause of the break above 93 but I'm not too concerned about this it looks more corrective to me at the moment than it does a sort of big reversal now this is more like a kind of at the moment that's like a big strong move this is like a bull flag and then you'd get the equivalent move out of the top that's not to say it can't trip down to one of these levels it's more specific this chart so this is how I got it laid out more specifically that's a big strong move higher but these are kind of trickling moves low in terms of momentum you'd still sort of think that perhaps it's to the upside I had this line in but I was sort of surprised it held I was actually expecting maybe a drop down to 50 after those RBI talks last week what I'm going to do now is I'm going to end the official webcast because I think I've covered most of the main points but then what I'll do is I'll continue unrecorded and answer some of your questions so I hope that was useful if anyone has to dash off now after 30 minutes but as I said I will be continuing just answering your questions unrecorded thanks a lot for attending the SimC Markets Weekly Update and my name is Jasper Waller starting off now but as I said we'll be continuing cheers