 We're gonna talk to our man, Teddy Kegstaff, folks. If you head on over to the front page of TFNN under the Newsletters tab, you'll see the Tiger Forex report. Teddy puts out an outstanding report every Monday, folks, with updates throughout the week when warranted. You can just hit the Subscribe button. It's $97 for the month, folks. You gain access to a webinar. He has in there as well. There's your $97. You get it for a month. You get the 60-minute webinar in there as well. Forex strategies and fundamentals. What is behind the Tiger Forex report newsletter? And you get a money-back guarantee. You keep it for 30 days. You're not happy. It's not something you can use. You can't look at your money-back. You can't go wrong, folks. Check it out on the front page. Teddy Kegstaff, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. So, where do we go, Teddy? We got crude, catching a little bit of a bid this week, but still relatively low prices considering. We have the market catching a little bit of a bid, and we got CPI numbers starting out tomorrow. Where do you wanna start off in the markets, Teddy? Well, I like the crude with the higher move low that it's set a couple sessions back. And I think it's gonna be pretty stable to hire. I'm not looking for a major rally, but I don't think you're gonna see any type of sell-off really in the crude market. I think it's gonna be pretty stable here. So, at least that's what I'm looking at in the short run. Pretty interesting. We're seeing prices, Teddy, of like $70, $72 from a risk-reward perspective, man. With everything going on in the markets, you have China opening back up that some of the rhetoric going on this week. Pretty interesting, at least that is kind of a floor of 70 bucks, because risk-reward wise, just in my own head, man, it'd be pretty remarkable if we cascade even lower prices considering the risks that are present as we go on into the winter months really right now while we're in the winter months right now. Sure, sure. Exactly, I agree with you 100%. So, yeah, I think that as far as the potential for a move to downside, there's not that much there. I would look to be a buyer of breaks in the crude oil for sure. Nice. How about the dollar index, man? We've just been kind of cascading to a little bit of lower prices. We're at 103.21 maybe this morning. What's your take on general dollar behavior this morning? You know, it's pretty much, it's just almost like divergence is starting to happen. The only weakness that the dollar has today is in the Euro and also in the Swiss franc. So, and I really don't, I would have to say, when you look at the other markets, and the key is if you look at what's going on with the bonds in the tenure right now, you have a three to one differential with the bonds leading the charge for lower yields right now. And usually when you have that differential on a daily basis, you're gonna have a rubber band effect. And I think that's the 30 year is driving the yields lower and trying to pull the short terms down, and because of that differential, you have to watch the 30 year when that falls back and starts to go up, that's gonna snap back. And you're gonna see that relationship close to closer to a two to one ratio. And if that really starts to move, that means the short terms, just a little bit of a pullback there is gonna bring a big pullback in the 30 year. And that would give a lift to the US dollar. And I think that's where you'll see the euro start to pull back and also the Swiss, because the dollar index as a whole is very neutral today. And if you look at it like the Australian dollar, like the euro's making a higher move high, against the dollar on a weekly and daily basis, but it's the only one, the pound is actually lower on the day. So the euro is the biggest part of the dollar index, but the pound is the second biggest and it's not moving. And the US dollar yen is also strong for the dollar. So that tells me that you have a little bit of a divergence happening. So if you're a euro trader or a Swiss trader, I would be careful, keep my stops tight, because if you see yields pop back higher, especially with the big sell-off in the 30 year, which we could easily see. I mean, unemployment, we had a spike low or high, depending on which currency pair you were trading last week. So now the reality is, is CPI gonna do what unemployment did? I mean, and the number that came out with the unemployment there, you're talking about the Fed only doing a quarter point over the next two meetings and then stopping. Well, if unemployment keeps on staying where it's at or goes lower, the Fed's gonna keep on raising rates. They want higher unemployment. They don't want lower unemployment. So then they gotta fight inflation and employment, because they wanna set off, they wanna touch off a recession. So if that's their mantra and they're gonna stick to it, you gotta factor in the fact, put in the, except the factor that the market already has the next half point factored in, okay? But if these other numbers really start to say that the Fed is not gonna ease up, that means that the market doesn't, they have to start going for higher yields, meaning lower prices and also a stronger dollar as well. Yeah, what did you think of the market reaction to that non-farm payroll number? You referenced it, man, we saw unemployment drop to 3.5%. Wages caught a lot of attention there. But boy, and we're sitting right now, that was at about 38, 19. I got the spike low on that Friday on the S&Ps. We're about 140 points higher right now, challenging the highs we almost saw on Monday. What did you think about the market reaction? Because the market reaction was, boy, the wage numbers are not increasing as much as the market expected. So that was that, okay, are they gonna start cooling wages, which will help inflation? But I kind of went back to the same thing you were saying, man, saying, if we got unemployment at 3.5% right now, and we have CPI coming out tomorrow, the core is supposed to be 5.7%. It seems like, and then, I don't know if you heard the start of the program, man, we got a meeting at the end of this month, we have one in March, and then you gotta go all the way out to May. Very difficult for me to see how we get enough data over the course of just two or three meetings for the Fed to make any kind of dramatic change. It would kind of be shocking right now, I think in that. I agree with you 100%. I totally agree with you. And that's where, I've been saying this for a past like month and a half that as we come into 2023, the Fed is not gonna be raising at the aggressive rate that they were over the past year. But as far as when they're stopping, they need to have these, what they've been doing has been trying to curb inflation, curb this, and also raise this. And some of it has been working, and to some of it, it's not. And if those things are that important to them on their agenda, well, why would they stop raising rates? And with other central banks raising rates too, it cancels out a lot of it. So, I mean, the media is looking very short-term being like, well, they're not gonna raise rates forever. Well, if you keep calling it a top or a bottom every single day, eventually you're gonna be right. And that's what they're doing right now. And I wouldn't second guess the Fed right now until we really see reactionary numbers. Now, if we have a CPI number that totally falls in line with what they're looking for and other things that really start to look like that going into the next month, well, maybe you can start to see that maybe they'll start pausing come May. But I really, I don't see that happening at all, especially if you keep a low. If the employment number in two months from now is right about where it's at right now or in three months from now, then I think you're gonna see the Fed at least, raising at least another one or two times over those next following meetings. So, is it gonna be aggressive? I highly doubt it. I think you're looking at a quarter point at best. But still, that stuff that the market, I don't think has factored in. I think the market has at best, a half a point over the next two to three meetings. I don't think it has a full point factored in over the next four, which I think it could actually be. And that's where I was talking about right before we came with you. I see a lot of the risk, man, where the market's basically pricing in almost the best case scenario right now, because I don't see any way that it's gonna be quicker than what the market's thinking. In terms of, I was talking about that they're looking for potentially a 50 basis point cut by the end of the year. How do we get there when we're waiting almost until the May meeting where they might stop and then you're gonna go 50. I mean, there just have to be such economic data that lines up to it. And we're still folks at a number that we have unemployment going down to 3.5%. So keep that in mind as these numbers go forward. They're not gonna cut until we have a lot of recessionary numbers. That's when they'll put the brakes on. And guess what, my friend? That ain't happening for a while because- No, and even the pausing, like you say, even the pausing, man, I find it very difficult to pause if the numbers are where they are right now. I mean, we're talking about headline numbers in the sixes for inflation, core numbers in the high fives and an unemployment rate at 3.5%, man. Teddy, I appreciate the time as always, man. Folks, check out the Tiger 4X report, outstanding newsletter, and I look forward to talking to you next Wednesday, Teddy. Sounds good, take care, Tyler. Okay, man, have a great one. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back to finish up the show.