 Hi, this is MX UX. This is a video about f2x. This is a video about app Terra Will they run out of cash the first time they tried to go into manufacturing? This is what happened. I'm going to do a breakeven analysis on their manufacturing cost back of the napkin and I got some pictures of the camper. I haven't seen before So let's move on to the first slide. Oh There is a link in the description for a discount of 30% on the Payment for the pre-order I'd appreciate it if you use it. Also, let me just tell you here's what we're going to do We're going to go over the Viper manufacturing because that's what Sandy Monroe is going to use To build the Terra line and we're going to go over the app Terra manufacturing Then we're going to go over the capacity to see if they can produce enough units Then we're going to go over the financials and see if they got enough money to do it. Okay. That's what we're going to do Let's get started. This is Sandy Monroe. We just did a big hour long or half hour long thing with the founders of that Terra and Very interesting. I suggest you watch it Monroe live Basically says we're going to use the Dodge Viper manufacturing line as the prototype for the F Terra line To bring things there is a variable breakeven point, which means they can expand the capacity without really changing the building and It was very flexible and they have a dancing machine concept Which is a mobile work platform that's ergonomic and moves up and down for the workers I have video on this We're going to go over it real quickly here, but let's just hear what Sandy has to say And you click it together and where you go you move the machine to suit the new position so that you've got the right number of people Okay, so basically Sandy Monroe's in charge of setting up the manufacturing which is good He's the expert theming expert. He's going to model it on the Viper Dodge Viper line, which he also put together Okay, let's just move on. Sorry about that. So this is a some video of the Viper manufacturing line and This just watch it real quickly. You can see No robots the only robots check do what all they do is check measurements to make sure it's in spec Everything's done by hand Let's just watch the video here that construction work is behind the scenes here Anyways, you can see this no robots in sight All hand work, I don't know what version there was a number of versions of the of the Viper done But there you go these guys are carrying hand carrying body panels Which you know, you wouldn't see in a GM plant most likely not in that not in that way and And Here you go again hand-building No, no robots here, you know just And this is this is at the end of the line. This is actually a rolling assembly line But you can see they have assist machines here that'll help them lift and so forth but Just a very straightforward manufacturing Not heavily automated. Let's just go on here now. This is this is some more video of the Viper manufacturing line this is to demonstrate the You'll notice there's a bellows under the car frame here. That's the dancing air thing Monroe was talking about allows them to adjust the work position And so forth and you can also see the variable Production here where they have looks like they're only doing one or two cars, but then you look down a line And there's there's a couple hundred so Demonstrates those two techniques and There now you see below there that see how that drop down that bellows there That's how that works and then you can see how many of those they have in the line there they so this is infinitely expandable you just add more little carts and There you go. You have more cars and there again is the bellows There's computer tracking of all the manufacturing parts and everything so That's a couple ideas of just to get you an idea here and now in this next clip Let me just go past this. This is they also had to build the engines at the Viper plant So it made it, you know quite a bit more complicated then What the Appare is going to be if you pay attention here, there's some robots the first robots you see on this line They're checking to make sure everything's in spec of all they're doing is check in micro millimeter measurements To make sure everything's in spec dimming statistical quality control There you go. There's the robots Just check in measurements and again This is a very simple as you can see not highly automated at all again with the hand work and So this is what Monroe's and envisioning envisioning for the app Terra and So that gives you an idea of the Viper workflow again very simple Manufacturing plan relatively simple nothing simple, but now this is Now that was the plant now, let's go over the production because you know, are they going to be able to scale this? I think we know are they we I'm gonna make enough cars to make any money and Here's the thing they basically did You know one to two thousand Builds a year The highest year was 1.7. I think the average is 1.5 But let me see if I can make this work here As you can see these numbers They are not very high This is the total production for the year Okay, then So this is some somewhat of a concern here. This is the total production for the entire run They only made 30,000 cars So this was kind of a bespoke manufacturing Routine so the question is you know, are they going to be able to scale this? You know to meet demand and is it going to be a workable model for the app Terra? The Viper manufacturing technique in the Viper manufacturing line. So let's go to the next slide here Now we're going to go into the app Terra manufacturing The way they do it or have done it in the past and this is the first app Terra This is the first factory. This is some old video But it's the same basic concept to give you an idea of How things go together, so let's do That's a first step Take the bottom piece and the top piece Climb them together put it in this alignment jig bond it take it out of the jig and then it goes over to assembly to get rigged with all the running components Let's take you to the metal shop. The interesting tool for us is it allows us to test things like roof crust rings, side impact doors rings, and many other metrics that we determine to make sure you're out there at face Now that we're taking a look at the positive shaft and the metal fast shaft This is probably really going to take a look at what makes this vehicle tick. It will take time Okay, that's a real good idea of How that now that's how they were doing it they have new materials now new material science But I think it's going to be basically the same but with new techniques and new materials And that gives you an idea of how that body goes together if you're curious, so They do the mold and then they glue it all together This if I can I'm going to click the title here in a minute. This is the original body And what they're doing is they're doing some I think prototype testing here They're throwing this thing around with a Forklift in the plant there to see how sturdy it is And I want you to watch this and you can get an idea of what a good design This is and this is the first design Not the one we have now and there are no doors on it Which provide a lot of strength and there is no front cone on this which gives you the whole crush though So just keep that in mind so This is the there you go, I think now that's about a six-foot drop there and Nothing cracked. I think they got some on the seam there the paint cracked a little bit But as you can see that held up It didn't fall apart the the occupant cavity is kept capsule is protected So that's I think that's That's pretty good now Watch this they have a forklift behind it and They're going to do a simulator rear end collision here, okay Now that's for the forklift. I've driven a forklift. That's the equivalent of a very big truck I would say I want to say a bus, but I don't know maybe that's going too far, but again, the passenger compartment You know without the doors and without the nose come Stayed intact. So I think even this first design with these original materials was a really good design And this is all pre-i phone videos. So pretty old stuff This is another one we're going to do a front-end collision here and keep in mind again that the doors are not on here and It's the original materials not the new advanced materials and there's no nose cone, which is is the crush so So there you go now watch this they're going to hit it from the front And again now that was quite an impact Again without the doors if the doors were in there, I don't think that would have split like that But look at that that that passenger compartment is intact And that's without the front crush up So I think that this is a very Very good design and with the new materials. I think This is this is from 2008 or probably 2005 2006 you know Just thinks out how things have advanced since then This is the one of the founders and he's discussing And this is an interview i'm going to try to link it in the description. This is a recent interview. He did And he's talking about how much materials and things have advanced and I think that's That's the key to this whole vehicle is Battery technology has advanced to the point where this really works well The the motors these in wheel motors that that was key that works well with this design the material science all the All the things are coming together for this design to really it it's met its time. I think it's it's a really It's really going to be a quite a vehicle Canada Have had a lot of time to The evolution of composites in the automotive and race industry Other things the formula tree any aircraft industry has changed dramatically over the last decade I'm putting up thinking and what we're doing today But what it allows us to do is have the highest new strength in the industry You know the previous vehicle run through all the crash tests and we built our own roof crash dig and had the testing done It has the highest request drink of anything you could drive on the road Which is a big statement If you're in a passenger vehicle, you know, it is not as strong as next People see it and they think that the F terrace mall is possibly weak. That's just not the case We Okay, so again I think this is a great design and it's even better now and it's I don't think anybody has to worry about their safety in this. I mean As he said it's safer than most cars and I I you know, you can compare it to an f1 racer because now they're all carbon fiber. They're all fiber You see what happens when they crash how safe they are. I think that's the same thing The reason we're covering so much in the body here is because that's That's the most complex thing to manufacture Uh, that's you know, the body in white they call it. That's the most complex thing to get right And you know, this is what tesla's gone into the castings and everything with To make to simplify this so We've gone over that you see how they mold that body and glue it together and you see how strong it is Let's go over some of the particulars here Um The software controlling The drivetrain and the user interface. I believe it's all going to be done in house And the interface and the whole thing some people say it's going to be a tesla. I don't tesla Software, I don't think so personally possibility A lot of the other parts are are going to be engineered in house, but sent out Uh, I believe uh to other parties to manufacture and they're going to assemble This stuff in house um We'll go over that in a second now There's been a lot of stuff on they've got a tesla steering wheel. They got a tesla charge board. They got a tesla screen well I don't I don't know that tesla's feeding them parts. I didn't know that tesla's suppliers are are they universal suppliers? Can can anybody buy tesla or tesla like parts because they're obviously not branded tesla Uh, are they you know knock off teslas or are they tesla? I don't know. It would be great for tesla If they were I mean, it would be great for aptera if they were tesla But you can see here. I have tesla because the big talk lately has been on On the uh The steering wheel they're saying it is a tesla steering wheel well It doesn't have a tesla logo on it, but it does look like a tesla steering wheel, but again Maybe that's just what they used in the prototype All right, so let's just go over these This is the body that we've been discussing at length We saw that I believe they're going to do that all in house And all the body and the paint and everything is going to be done in house They're going to do that from scratch These are the hub motors those I believe they're going to buy those outright from alafé and alafé may engineer special models for them The engines and the control units are going to be bought and then they're going to program the control units These are the two superstructures that hold what would be the drivetrain in a three-wheel drive I believe these tubular parts They're going to make in the first generation of this thing. They did make them these suspension parts Uh, of course the shocks. I think they'll buy aftermarket, of course But but these other castings and so forth I believe they built the prototypes of these in-house and I believe Artificial intelligence might have been involved in this design and that's the handle the weight of these motors and Handling and everything else, but it's very Highly engineered product. I think they're going to send those out to be manufactured to spec okay But these tubular frames, let me just see if I can enlarge this a little bit These uh, these tubular frames here this stuff I believe they're going to do all that in house and then these castings Again, this is going to all be done in house. This is all going to be done these castings That's uh, I believe it's going to be sent out and The the wheel hub motors I think the uh, and then if we go into the car itself, of course the wire harness Could be bought aftermarket and so on Uh Again the control units they're saying could it be tesla control? I don't know. I don't think so I think it's going to be the run but as far as the batteries go One of the co-founders started a company called flux power And what this did was supply lithium batteries to These things that move pallets around in the in the grocery store. Okay, for example, they used to use lead acid batteries. Okay The flux power brought lithium to those devices. So they're industrial lithium batteries That's his company Okay, I believe he's out of it now, but he founded it. So I I believe that may be the battery source they have And they may have their own special secret sauce on the batteries and they manufacture may manufacture and form This is in my opinion so And as far as the interior goes and again, we talked about the other tesla parks Uh the interiors on all the fords and all the cars that are made their first tier Uh suppliers They design all this stuff and they build it and they basically send an interior kit. Nobody builds their own seats tesla does I don't know how he brought that in half But anyway, the point is When you see like a Ford f1 15 say oh that interior is great. Well, four didn't make it A first tier manufacturer supplier made it They may have designed it Ford may have approved the design or Ford may have given him specs, but Just saying that That is going to come in a kit and the glass and other things I'm sure are going to come from suppliers. So Uh, the point I'm making here is uh pretty simple pretty simple vehicle I think it's completely doable And nothing is easy Uh if tesla is involved Well, that would really be great, but we can't count on that so far Nobody's saying nothing. They asked tesla and they asked up there and there's no comment. So I don't know if it if they did use it If tesla was in with them boy That's a killer so Tara has about a hundred million dollars in pre-orders And just on red edge. It's just That's about 3 000 orders On the on the average up there. So So they got 3 000 cars to build this first run As I said the dodge viper averaged about 1500 units a year And this is the munro System they're going to use it up terra So this is like the bottom end of our Manufacturing capability You know the viper was an ice vehicle 100 100 times more parts to assemble just think about it the cooling system Building the motor the drivetrain So so it's a much simpler vehicle. Okay So a pair is using a new new material science and a new design for the body And again that proof of concept and they have experience in the past manufacturing this So I I think they can do it. I think they have the capability to do it. I don't think that's a problem. The question is How many can they make a year or how hard is it going to be to scale up on this? so I I look for an example and It occurred to me that the again one of the founders actually Founded a boat company to build boats that pull wakeboards and this type of Fiberglass like construction in these molds and this is very much like Building a boat Which is probably why you went into the boat building business in the first place but As an example again, this is the back of the napkin analysis Uh What's what's the what's Here's an example of manufacturing similar sized boats that would be to the up tear body And they use similar techniques not exactly the same But this one, uh, this one manufacturer in an average year Uh, I don't know. I think they had 500 employees. I'm not sure. I don't know. Maybe not that many Anyway, they did 3 000 boats a year So our bottom end of the range is 1500 I think the max they can do let's say 3 000 At least the first year for sure And then we get into the different molding techniques. I don't know if they're using silicon bag molding The other method uses a mold which they were showing they may use a hybrid system uh But the point is this is a Not much different. It's it's great for making multiple parts The vacuum pressure holds everything in place and If you use a single bag the the silicon bag molding method, which they got a Less than one day is needed to convert a mold to a to a closed molding So in other words Let's say they can make one of these a day For each mold they have So if they have 100 molds They can make 100 of these things in one day because that's how quick they come together. Of course, they got to assemble them and Fit them together, but i'm just saying that that is doable So 1500 to 3000 units totally doable Can scale up there. We don't have a problem there and that's the biggest part The most I would say the most complex part of the vehicle All right. Now the question is can app terra meet? You know the demand the last time they got started they ran out of cash Right at the starting line there um So let's just go over this they have pre-orders Now stand at 3000 that may increase. There's a lot of interest prices from 29 25 9 to 46 And they have options and customizations Now they did say they expected to deliver them in 2021 that might be pushed back But let's say they're going to do it Sometime at 20 let's say it could be late 20. Let's say the first one comes out in december 2021 And the sales for all 3000 these vehicles based on averages and stuff would be 100 million Now again the dodge viper production was 1500 units a year Same line for app terra boat can do 3000 years units a year And again with this molding less than a day to complete each body so Up Upper lower no problem. This is our orders. This is our sales I'm going to say Since they're just starting out. I'm going with the bottom number Okay, and I think this is Pretty this is actually probably aggressive, but we'll see I did a further analysis on this. It's doable 1500 use in the first 12 months of operation whenever their operation starts This will give them 50 million in gross sales or earnings before taxes, blah, blah, blah, whatever that is in interest The question is, you know, how long will it take them to start up? You know But anyway, I think they're going to do 1500 units in first 12 months. They're going to make 50 grand in gross sales The low end margin margin On on the vehicle is 31 per cent per vehicle That would give you profit on sales Or gross profit on sales of 15.5 million The burn rate best I could tell for 12 months right now is 4.68 million the estimates To get the plan up and running is 4 million so if you subtract the the sales And from the cost you get 6.8 million profits So they should be profitable their first year the question is are they going to run out of cash? Do they have enough money to start up? This is what happened last time Their present cash is about four million They're they're 4.68 million in this Now I have updated these figures, but let's just for the sake of argument go through this They're 4.68 million short Of the 8.68 million they need to start up Based on the cash they have on hand right now They have another we funder set for this February and 2021 the last one raised 3.3 million That still leaves them 1.38 million short for the startup to fund the the startup So if they raise the margin if they go to the higher margin vehicles To 30 to the 35 percent level They're going to increase their sales to 17.5 million increase of 2 million 1.38 short. So they're going to be they're going to have profit of 620 thousand the first 12 months Now, but they're still going to be short for the startup cost. They can borrow the money to do the startup They can borrow against receivables if they have the confirmed orders but Again, this is what happened last time 1.38 short But it's kind of doable But again, they they're going to have to raise more capital Even with this 35 percent they're going to be profitable, but they aren't going to be able to cover Their startup costs now it's really hard to find up-to-date information on this. I've been scouring all over the place I got more information. I redid this Here we go now Close but doable This is the new figures. I am let's just go over through this now. This is the expense case. This is no marketing. No delivery costs Let's keep that in mind So there's going to be added costs. This is back of the napkin back of the napkin stuff 1500 units That's 150 a month 37 a week That's 7.5 cars made a day And this is taking time off for holidays during the year. I think that's achievable They can do 1500 units this even if they're just starting out. It would seem to me that that's doable We don't know what you know, whatever the profit margin mix is going to be They're going to make 50 millions on if they go at the 31 percent level Let's take the more conservative level You know the op-ex burn rate is 4.68 million now that's going to go up. So The cap x is 4 million to get started All this run through the ringer is 6.8 million profit They could double this easily to 3000 you know go to 14 cars a day Once they get it rolling, I don't think and they're trying to sling Get together a hyper efficient ev tax credit status because right now this doesn't It's a three-year-old vehicle. It doesn't qualify for the seven grand tax credit and under the new administration This very well could happen and of course, you know tesla could be involved that would push it over the moon Now this is the funding It's changing. This is what I've come up with the newest the latest I can find President cash on hand is 4 million The we funder with the buy-ins was 4.8 million They got 2.5 million they raised internally and this is from a guy who manufactures custom High-end audio equipment. He's a big EV fan and I'm sure he's got an equity stake in the company, but this is an additional 2.5 million they raised. Okay So they have 11.35 million cash on hand right now The estimated startup cost is 8.68 million The excess cash they have on hand Is 2.6 million So actually 2.7 So can they split can they do it? Yeah, they can do it I think they can do it Close. I mean again, there's other costs that aren't in but you know ballpark back on napkin stuff We funder point two is planned for february this year You're raising though. Let's say conservatively 3 million That's going to give them 5.7 million. So they're going to have 5.7 million Over what they need To get over the hump and they have an internal money band and they also have this investor that may want to go in more so What they said was They have they're fully funded and you know what? I you know, I think they can do it They're not overfunded And there's going to be unknown expenses and they're going to have to hire staff and you know but You know, it's it seems to be completely doable if and they got Monroe involved and he's a cracker jack And they got All the ducks are walking in the right direction. So That's my analysis. Can they do it? I think they can do it. I think the car is going to launch I think they're going to deliver vehicles and hopefully that profit fly will keep flying their next vehicle They have planned is a five passenger car which I think You know using these same construction techniques And to save self-charging I think that's a total winner That'll be an alternative to tesla and it'll be a new paradigm You know A new way of looking at cars, you know, which I think Is what everybody's expecting with an electric vehicle because you know, you can take a Volkswagen Beetle and you can put an electric motor and it's an electric car. What is it? You know People want the new new thing So anyway, that's the presentation I think it's doable And this is the camper I didn't see these pictures. I think this is really cool I really like the way this looks here I mean, I was wondering how they were going to do this when I did my pre-order. I put this option in Very cool. Very cool. And I think these are these off-road wheel skirts, too Which are probably flexible skirts. Um, this is another option that comes but Anyway, I hadn't seen these. I don't know how many I'm sure everybody else has seen them But I thought I put them in here And there is a link in the description below You can get 30% off if you want to Order one of these things I did You get 30% off the uh, it's 100 us dollars. I don't know wherever you are Use the link and it'll help out the channel and it'll save you money But anyway, I think it's doable I think In And let's just move on here The creepy music has started. I think as an investment that You know aptera is You know, it's a speculative investment Uh, but I think uh, you know, they learned from their mistakes the last time And uh I think this is going to be a go. I think this thing is going to be on the road I think it's going to be very successful personally. I mean for meeting a certain certain need in the market So that's it. I hope you guys like the presentation Best numbers I could come up with and the creepy music's playing. Thanks for watching. This is mx2x And that's it