 Okay, very good morning. Hope everyone is well. It is Tuesday the 15th of October Going to run you through the morning's headlines from an update on the trade war Brexit gonna look at oil and we're gonna look at earnings from my perspective also gonna look at Chinese inflation data overnight But to kick things off quick overview of just general market sentiment at the open this morning stock futures are Trading on the front foot this morning We are already testing the R1 in regards to the US indices in both the S&P and Nasdaq That the DAX though outperforming the touch already had a run-up to its R2 this morning So after what was a fairly Kind of benign finish on Wall Street. I mean it was actually in the S&P early down marginally The Asian stocks not really giving away too much if anything a little bit of I Guess positivity just fading late into the session yesterday about the the kind of how long-lasting or in fact How this Chinese deal will play out in the long run that they broke in that partial deal at the weekend But this morning things a little bit more positive again There is a bit of an update on Brexit which has meant that in that top chart the pound is out performing a little bit I'll get into those headlines in a moment So gold down only slightly about two dollars just sub its pivot at the moment having broke below that point in the futures earlier In the session and the US 10 year Slight positive on the the session But only a touch about three ticks at the moment and then WTI crude is still trading lower by about 40 cents this morning So the cross asset class mick cross asset class is a little bit mixed at the moment Oil and gold down. I mean the dollar is recovering a little bit at the moment It's basically reversed its losses to flatten the Dixie given some of the upward movements seen particularly in cable this morning Eurodollar though and cable seeing a little bit of a divergence there and definitely because Sterling currency is underpinned by some fundamental developments on Brexit which we'll discuss But going straight into the headlines This is quite interesting chart. I saw this morning. This is looking at the MSCI Asia Pacific Index daily move and so just looking at the broader Asia pack region and looking at the percentage changes that generally We've been seeing in this index and the point being is that the latest partial trade Deal between the US and China in the last couple of days is being met with Smaller or more shallow kind of reactions in the market and I think it's almost like the Feels like we're in that boy that cried wolf kind of mentality where it's kind of like okay Yeah, we have this short term Reprieval relief in the markets. They kind of lift but then it's like well, okay So they've committed to do what they've already been doing which is purchase larger amounts of agricultural goods And then in kind the US delays tariffs that we're going to be implemented today But the December ones are still there as a looming threat So all in all is this really a partial deal of the is this more just a kicking in the can down the road exercise? And it almost feels like we're back in that that kind of continuous loop again And I think that's largely reflected by the way that the market participants now reacting this to this type of information It's kind of having lesser playing for its buck in that respect And it's kind of what I was trying to suggest yesterday that I don't really see much more in it in terms of response Given the fact that ultimately they're still much to do on Things like intellectual property theft and and those looming tariffs in December. So With that being said although Trump has Being talking this up because obviously it looks good for him. It's almost as if then part of the back Door discussions have been well Stephen as in the US Treasury Secretary Stephen And you go out there and start just firing a couple shots Over the barrel saying that you know, there's a new round of tariffs set for December 15th For a hundred and fifty six billion dollars with Chinese goods that will be triggered if Beijing failed to seal The limited deal tentatively struck by Trump last week So it's kind of a bit of a warning sign there from the US to say to China because we've been here Of course many times before they kind of have a deal in principle But then it ever really gets ratified and so the US just kind of stamping down their foot to make sure that that does in fact Happen at this point. So still much to play for I think with this trade situation But you know as per that previous graph I think any Response in markets is becoming increasingly short-lived and I do think that is a consideration if you're holding more kind of medium-term positions in the market Moving over to Brexit. What is the situation at the moment? Well Boris Johnson's Brexit deal on a knife edge Talks may continue after the Brussels summit according to the EU president now What we've got here is a timeline, of course was that a deal was supposed to have been brokered around now So that then it can kind of be Discussed and finalized in the EU summit happening on Thursday and Friday this all then coming before that Legislation that passed in the UK a couple of weeks ago that Boris must then write a letter to Brussels asking or requesting at least for a delay Now what's being suggested both yesterday and by the presidency of the EU? This morning is talking about well, perhaps then we could have more discussions Ongoing on the sidelines of this summit and as we heard yesterday Could there be another EU summit on the 29th and 30th of October? Giving just one or two days left then to broker this potential deal. So that's kind of Becoming more and more potential For a renewed kind of timeline in that respect But the reason why the pounders kind of responded quite positively albeit originally this morning It's already come back a touch at the moment But this was from Tony Connolly if you don't follow Tony Connolly on Twitter and you are Involved in any Brexit or UK related trades particularly Related to Brexit developments, then you need to follow this guy He is basically the RTE Europe editor and so very much informed with the negotiations that are going on and he tweeted this morning that the UK will table fresh Proposals to break the Brexit deadlock this morning according to his sources He said two well-placed sources have confirmed that UK negotiators will bring forward a new text When they meet European Commission negotiators in Brussels this morning It follows a 90-minute meeting between Boris Johnson and the DUP leader Arlene Foster and deputy leader Nigel Dodds in Downing Street last night It's not clear yet if the proposals are revised version of the dual customs scheme Which the UK proposed finding the breakthrough meeting between Leo Voradka and Boris Johnson last week or whether there's something much different The development follows a downbeat assessment by the EU chief negotiators on Sunday over the dual customs idea it goes on But some of that positivity this morning just coming on the back of that however The pound is already pulling back a little bit and as I can see the dollar is really Strengthening here at the moment and partly that's probably due to euro dollar just coming under some pressure breaking the overnight Asia-Pacific low Pushing down to its S1 at the moment But one of the things here that I would say and I know Sam is Often saying this to you guys is that how often have we been here before where there's a rumor that comes out about potential deal Only to be refuted a few moments later and then we get a reversal of the entire move So again when you get these source comments the way I'd say to suggest this if you're trading off news headlines intraday Is if it's a source comment, I would say History has shown me that you should be a little bit more proactive Bit more prudent in terms of the time that you hold on to those trades I the timeline should be shorter if it is someone more official like the EU president the commission The prime minister spokeswoman something like that then obviously it gives you a little bit more concrete evidence That this is someone official saying something so the move could be a little bit longer lasting the source comments So if you think about the way that accredited news agencies work the fact that RT have broke this Bloomberg or Reuters will be wanting to put out their kind of latest piece as well And so it's not unsurprising to see conflicting headlines come out as newspapers are kind of jostling for position to maintain Their relevance in a sense in terms of breaking news so yeah timelines I think with any brexit source comments going to get a little bit more Volatile over the coming days as we go into that summit. I think just just act a little bit cautiously in the Execution side of things in risk managing in that regard Okay, moving on off brexit and off China US earnings says there's a few coming out today and this is really as I said In the preview for the week on Monday We kind of pick up pace now, and it's the big banks that are going to be coming out today So a couple of things to point out here before we look at all the other companies coming out And there's five things to watch as big banks kick off earning season So I'm going to run through those now and And things that might make a bit more sense when you're picking through the numbers later on this morning And one is cost-cutting We've seen this from a number of obviously large European banking institutions like commerce, Deutsche Credit Suisse, UBS all these types of firms cutting back on their staff One of the things then to look out for in that regard is so called efficiency ratios Trading is another area of which gets closely followed and Some people suggesting that increased volatility During the month of August in the summer obviously as we're getting a lot of these breaking comments to do with trade wars and a topsy-turvy Market moves that we were seeing means that there's generally more Action for the banks to facilitate trades and therefore making more profit on execution However on the downside in the rates environment JP Morgan City in Wells Fargo have already been warning investors that their net interest income So that's money banks make from customers loan payments minus what they pay depositors would fall in the third quarter because interest rates have been declining and again this kind of Margin squeeze if you like continues to be that case because of course we're expecting another Rate cut potentially to by the end of the year It's going to put more pressure on that particular area of the banks in the lending environment The one thing though that lower rates does mean for banks is obviously mortgages and one area that low interest rates can help is the housing market the mortgage Bankers Association the MBA that that's the body that releases those weekly mortgage application figures They estimated that 21% increase in originations in Q3 and a 58% jump in refinancing So obviously given this renewed now we're on that interest rate hike trajectory But we're now having to and what is most likely to be a third interest rate cut It's not a bad time to refinance in that that respect another area the final two is one is consumers and US consumers can still be counted to help if anything some of the underlying numbers at the banks because spending is holding up Amid a relatively healthy job market situation for the moment and credit quality according to the metrics We've been seeing through economic data has remained relatively robust So the consumer side is fine. However looking at the investment banking division. That's a completely different ballgame It's been the worst quarter in more than two years for the announcement of any mergers and acquisitions and also We've had such a string of terrible IPO situations Particularly the last one being we work But also others that we've had like uber had its difficulties at the beginning generally speaking then It's led to a very difficult period for advisory fees in the investment banking divisions of all of these banks So trading might be up mortgages and consumer related Components may be quite positive, but the rate environment and investment banking fees are probably going to be particularly particular weak spots With that in mind who is actually coming out today. So here's a full list I know it's a bit small. So let me just zoom this in so we can get a bit more of a sense of what we're looking at so these are in chronological order in London time BST New York time obviously EDT and so pre-market today We have the likes of United Health BlackRock Johnson and Johnson JP Morgan Goldman Sachs City Wells Fargo Charles Schwab Aftermarket much smaller firms Looking at some of the numbers then if I just zoom this out. I'll talk you through them So the EPSV United Health is expected at $3 and 45 and Estimated quarterly revenues at sixty point five eight billion. They're due just before 11 a.m. London times They're the first one of major kind of Market capitalization to come out this morning of the bigger banks You're gonna get JP Morgan at 12 Goldman's is 12 30 cities at one EPS Expected at two fifty one five dollars and one eighty one respectively and then Johnson and Johnson Actually is the biggest pre-market company to report. They've got a market cap of just shy of three hundred and eighty billion dollars They should be just before midday 1140 a.m. London times 640 New York Their EPS expected 244 revenues expected at twenty point two nine billion So if anyone needs these numbers in a bit more detail I do have more estimates here for their yearly outlook as well in terms of the current existing guidance with the streets Looking for just drop me a message and trading live and I'll be happy to ping those over to you All right moving on away from earnings China and Brexit I'm gonna be looking at oil prices later on this evening because of course it's Tuesday So we'll be looking out for the API infantries Now WTI I did mention is down about 40 cents this morning trading close to the 53 dollar handle So a little bit of the wind coming out the sale of the positivity on the back of the partial trade deal between the US and China Just dampening things a touch and then also Expectations are for continuation of more infantry builds in terms of crude stockpiles on the weekly change in the US and Analysts to see or anticipate the fifth weekly gain. That would be the longest consecutive gain of builds in stockpiles since February going back to this period that we had here, so Yeah, the supplied nature of what's happening at the moment Definitely is weighing the diminishing kind of returns out of the trade deal and then one thing I did see actually let me just quickly. I was reading this on the way in It'll pop up, but I did read that Saudi Arabia Well, let me quickly pop onto here so I can bring it out Saudi Aramco is now said to be pumping as much oil as before the tax last month So you remember at the time we had this really aggressive What was it a $10 gap up on on that recommencement of trades? After that drone strike that we had on those major Facilities of Saudi Aramco. However, Aramco has said that it's now pumping as much as before the attacks So again, the kind of speed of which they've managed to get things back online Hasn't really taken that long There were some fears that it could have taken multiple weeks up to two months at the time But obviously it's been a little bit quicker than that So that's another kind of negative drag in that sense that the Saudis have managed to get back online so quickly Okay, off of oil. The other thing was I just wanted to have a quick peek at some Chinese data overnight factory deflation worsens Adding to global economic woes CPI though accelerates to 3% It's the fastest since 2013 Couple things then it's no surprise to see a continued divergence between these two metrics The consumer price index CPI at 3% year over year being the fastest increase in a couple of years It was driven predominantly by food prices climbing 11.2 percent And more than 69 percent jump that's been seen in pork prices Obviously due to the fever and subsequent slaughter of millions of pigs that have pushed up prices in China also What some of these articles are suggesting which makes sense is that breeders Unlikely to rush to restock their herds in a meaningful way because they're still lingering fears of Recontamination and catching the disease again, which obviously comes at a great expense because it takes a lot of time to to it's not like you can just switch on and Suck up the oil out of the ground pigs need to be born reared and Fed and it's a long arduous process that's quite expensive And if they hold off on that then all the more reason why a lot of people believe you're gonna get a Continuation then of this over time. The other thing is if we're looking at medium-term perspective Don't forget in January you get the Lunar New Year holiday in China and what we typically see there then is a front loading and demand for goods and and certainly then Analysts at Nomura have said in a research note this morning that they say that CPI in China could rise close to four percent in January in order to Reflect that kind of activity the producer price inflation. They also go on to say May fall even more due to weakening domestic demand Falling energy and raw material prices and a value-added tax cut that became effective in April this year So all the more reason why it is important that China do look to broker some kind of partial deal at least with The US obviously there's that threat December So this is all gonna rear its ugly head again in a few months time particularly going to that Christmas period Which will be interesting But it shows and as per Premier Lee saying warning of increasing downward pressures in the economy all the more reason that they need to take proactive action To mitigate that at the moment which they continue to do so This was just a graphic to give you a bit of an idea in a sense about how Outperforming food CPI is as a component at the moment. That's really driving this divergence between the red and the black line Okay Quickly then it's wrapping up with the calendar. What have we got so this morning? We get the latest jobs update remember You've got the full kind of suite of UK data this week jobs data today CPI tomorrow Retail sales Thursday alongside all the Brexit drama and also a whole host of Bank of England speakers of which Mark Carney is Making a parliamentary Treasury Committee Testimony later on this morning now that latter point is very rarely important market moving usually It's just him reiterating the current stances Given he's the governor maybe worth keeping half an ear on that commences at 9 30 a.m. Just when all the jobs data will come out Then we've got ZEW from Germany Be quite interesting to look at analysts anticipating a further deterioration in just general forward-looking sentiment for the euro area Particularly under this uncertain cloud of the trade war situation developing because even though there's a partial deal struck for China What's going to happen with the the single market in the euro area and then later on this afternoon? You've got the New York Fed Manufacturing figure are actually the API just to update myself and to correct myself We had the Columbus Day holiday, of course yesterday in the US so the API infantry's will not be tonight They'll be tomorrow just as a reminder Then feds bullard Voter and the dissenter as well as being one of the most dovish members of the Fed He's speaking at 9 25 this morning might be worth keeping an eye out for To see whether or not he's backing not just one but potentially two cuts in towards the year end And then you've got another Bank of England speaker a bit later on this afternoon That then there is more Fed speakers you got Bostick George and daily all scheduled as well throughout this afternoon and this evening And as I mentioned, you've got all those bank earnings coming city Goldman's was Fargo and then also to be aware of is Johnson and Johnson all coming out pre-market Okay, guys, that's it from me. I know quite a lot to take on board I'd say though in summary Brexit headlines just the market remains susceptible to still quite a lot of further developments I'd expect more rumors more tweets like that from Tony Connolly to come from other journalists throughout the day So just be mindful of your your execution of trades within that product if you are looking at it I'd be realistic with the time frame of holding any open position for for too long a period Then you've got the earnings to also consider for the rest of today And then the trade war I'd say I'm not looking for too much spectacular to come out of that this this morning It's kind of more of an update than it is anything to be aware of for for strategies today. I'd say okay I drove the Sam and I wish you a good day. Thanks very much Yeah, hi guys. Hope we're we're doing well good to be back on first one of the week It's having a quick look over. We'll start the euro as I did. It's come under a bit of pressure this morning breaking through a Bit of a trend line you can see on there as well, you know Very well, I do love a bit of a trend and and that break You know coinciding with the the false Push above yesterday's high within a move down towards today's s1 and yesterday's low So that's what can tainting things for now. And I guess as well just looking at The price action from yesterday with this Remove this trend because really you could argue it starts a bit lower down as well. And I was looking at this coming through From around here, let's move that up a bit So you can almost have the sort of the the the false push again from yesterday above this Left shoulder if you like from the 10th, we obviously go through higher on on the Friday And then the break of this trend that we've now seen this morning as it as it comes lower So looking at that and of course now this trend line as we can say we can probably move that To be more accurate just over the last Session or so that on a retest would come around the pivot So, you know, if it wasn't because of that the break of that I wouldn't really fancy the pivot too much But I'd certainly be interested to see what happens on a retest of that trend line Other than that really looking at the euro obviously the highs from yesterday and today and then the lows from Friday as well, which of course brings in some of those Highs as well from from the previous Well for the beginning of the month from some of the previous weeks Would be areas of support as well So for me for the euro just looking at free levels really retested that trend Although it does come into a choppy area So I wouldn't if going short wouldn't be looking to hold for too long If it didn't really go straight away and then up to that to those highs as well and and the lows there To keep a watch on on the charts the pound at the moment void But could could easily come lower as we all all know offer just one headline or lack of development yesterday's Low was obviously a great opportunity to have got in 25 41 Also, if we just scoot to the left a bit, you can see was the inputs above the camera Was the high of the 24th Which has a bit offered a great level to get in again and since then we have drifted higher from that low Probably worth having on a trend line as well for the remainder of the day as we have had one One two three tests of it I see that looking to come in just above the pivot Also, if it was to happen now the low of the day as well So bit of a guide maybe for lining the sand to say happy to stay long from a technical point of view As long as that trend line holds the previous higher the day is this act of the support now. So Given everything that's going on fundamentally technically still going And acting quite well So 26 60 for a level support the trend line as well To act as points to keep this Market going to to the upside the higher that we had last week 2736 we almost reached that today It will take 10 10 ticks or so So that would obviously be the the key resistance point to the upside to keep her keep a watch on and have monitored yesterday we saw Pretty flat day to be honest across the board for breakfast is we did come lower in the morning only to You know come back and then just hug that pivot for the remainder the session pretty quiet much the similar to last Monday I guess with you know a lack of data to drive things But however, we have pushed pushed on and just above where we're trading in stock So we're keeping an eye on on this whole level. I also got the high from yesterday Which would touch the couple of times dropping that down to 15 and five minutes You know, you can see those lows were just starting to get squeezed in perhaps as long as we stay Above that trend line. It might be that you are favoring a break to the upside below be looking for Price to just drift back down maybe focusing on what was quite a key resistance point this morning You can see again tested a couple of times here on 15 minute 29 74 On the dot one two three break through So we're keeping a watch on that much like the pound as well A couple of trends to keep an eye on from the lows of yesterday Good sort of guides and linens in the sand above where we're trading now if we can get get to there We're keeping a watch on a bit of a breakdown area from Friday as well 29 87 Before we're then looking at those highs from Friday as well So a bit of a five point push wouldn't be too surprising above the break of that high Trend line and previous high of the day as well to keep an eye on for areas of support gold has been an interesting one Over the last sort of few weeks really that Where's it gone? Here we go. That's uh 1492 level had offered a really good sort of guide Multiple times as as to what's going to happen. You can see here just bringing that in we get the breakthrough off as good Resistance before the ISM number comes out and then we broke again broke again last week to the downside and Quite a few good opportunities as we came back to test that before breaking through and now back above it And we'd almost reached that this morning So I'd still have that marked on as a decent area of support And also the opportunity to get short should it break through and then of course We we'd be looking at some of the lows from yesterday as well So 1492 in the futures Give or take you know a few pips either way is it's still certainly A level of interest that I would have on looking at it more Intra day above where we're trading you can see we are trending lower from The high probably worth seeing if we can get anything on on that relatively steep, but just now Within the last seven minutes you can see we've got the third test of that trend So people are looking at it. I would have it on break above that You could you may be looking to to get a push towards 1497 So not a massive move but given the time of the day It might be worth looking later on anyway the high of the day almost reaching an interesting area from Yesterday where we broke down into the afternoon around 1499 But of course 1500 as well So another level of resistance to keep a watch on and just above there really you can see Going back to friday as well It's quite a big zone where the sellers have taken over a couple of times So keeping eye on this trend line resistance around 1500 to the top side R1 you've got quite a nice bit of price action as well from friday that you keep a watch on Below 1492 s1 loads of yesterday and then friday's loads as well could come into the mix to keep a watch on As well just going back to stocks obviously s&p near that high and Worth keeping that trend line on the fact that the Dax is just struggling to get above its r2 already a decent move May halt its progress over in the states So keep a watch on that as we just start to to drift down and we are now below the high that we had on friday As well. So a couple of attempts are trying to get through there just fading to do so For now looking at just below where we're trading on the Dax I keep a watch of course on what was the high overnight on friday We can see a decent reaction this morning once we had broken through So 12,514 a level support to keep a watch on below there Obviously got those previous highs as well from yesterday and today. So again the markets, you know acting quite technically Obviously with those those biases to to look to maybe wait for resistance to break or for levels of support to come back Certainly yesterday was relatively slow But I wouldn't be too surprised to see things start picking up from today As well any questions as usual, please do let us know We'll be on the mic throughout the day But I hope you'll have a good one and catch you all in the chat