 Hey everyone, it's Mike Kramer of Mock Capital. Today is Monday December 4th. It's around 7.15 New York time. So tomorrow we'll be getting some economic data here that could be market moving. The Joltz data point has become sort of a market mover over the last couple of months. It's expected to fall to 9.3 million for the month of October down from 9.5 million in September. Also, we're supposed to get ISM services. That's seen rising to 52.3 from 51.8. Prices paid are expected to be flat at 58 versus 58.6. Employment 51.4 versus 50.2. And new orders 54.9 to 55.5. And so when we go back and look at these days where we've had Joltz reports, you can see in August it really had no impact. But then here on August 29th, we got a very big move higher, almost one and a half percent. Then in October we had a move down of about 1.4 percent. Then in November, when the Joltz came out, we rallied about 1 percent. So at least the last three reports, we've gotten moves of about 1 percent. So it almost seems like whatever way the market initially moves following the Joltz report, you could see that move persist throughout the day. I mean, certainly when we look at the S&P 500, at least here's our 10 day exponential moving average. You can see that we've tested it now one time today. We actually came down and hit that value right here today and we bounced right off of it. And so that's the first real sign that maybe we're starting to see a little bit of a change in trend here with the S&P. Again, what I would want to see is for the index to trade below the 10 day exponential moving average. And you'd want to see that for a couple of days. Now we've seen this before where it can really give us a good signal and a good indication in terms of market trends. Sometimes it can be a little bit misleading because obviously you had a period of time here where we rallied above it, but then came back below. But what's really most important here is that once you get above or below it, you start trending in a certain direction. If you start stalling out, it could be a sign that you're going to slip in the opposite direction, again, back above or below it. So again, I would be watching this 45-50 area. This seems to be a very important level of support for the market. There is a big gamma level there, which is also helping to hold the market up at 45-50. So really at this point, a break below 45-50 would obviously be a negative sign. And that would potentially set up a decline back towards this 44-90 to 45-100 level. Likewise, if we were able to gap higher tomorrow and overtake this 45-70 range, it certainly leaves open a very strong possibility of returning the 45-95 to refill the gap from today's open. Clearly today's move opening was pretty weak. We tried to get above 45-70 on really three occasions and failed each time. So it shows us that there's some meaningful resistance at this point. And at this point, the move Friday looks like a failed breakout attempt. So until this gap closes, it's really hard to say. It looks like there could be a little bit of a shift in momentum finally taking place. When we look at the NASDAQ, it's already broken and fallen below the 10-day exponential moving average. You can see across it was acting as support the last two days. But then today we gap below it, actually. And not only did we gap below it, but we gap below this long-term uptrend that goes back to the beginning of December of last year. And it's interesting because we gapped above it on the way up and now we gap below it on the way down. So we have to wonder, you know, if there's any real significance to that. The fact that we moved below the 10-day exponential moving average and gap below the trend line, I think is an important message. And it could be that we have seen that this sort of shift in the market from these big, big blue chip index is kind of leading the way to potentially now starting to fade out. There is certainly a case for this because when we look at the S&P 500 growth ETF versus the value ETF, SPYG, SPYV, you can certainly see that it looks like there's a head and shoulders pattern in here. It looks like the neckline has already broken and it looks like there might be further to decline before this exhaust completely or at least signals that maybe the at least this leg of it is over. So you can see there could be a little bit further to go and it could be a sign that perhaps there's some sort of rotation taking place internally in the market. When we swing over to the Dow, this is one of the reasons why they seem to Dow really outperformed. Now I highlighted this rising flag pattern on a couple of occasions, how it worked really nicely. It did not work this time. You can see instead of breaking down, we broke up. And that was a little surprising to me, not what I thought would happen because certainly it's been a pattern that's worked fairly well for me in the past. But this time it just didn't work. But you can see the difference between where the Dow and the S&P are in the NASDAQ. You can clearly see the Dow was well above the 10-day exponential moving average and the Dow even broke above this long-term uptrend, which has now been in place since March. And this is because you're seeing that rotation out of these big mega cap tech names and into other parts of the market. And that really leaves us very close to making a new all-time high here. I mean, the next level of resistance appears to be around this 36,450 area. And then you're talking about an all-time high here at 36,950. I mean, the Dow closed at 36,204. So you're basically talking 750 points. It's not really very much. And given the strength of the move higher, given the rotation, if there's one index that has a chance to make a new high, I think before this year may be over. It's probably going to be the Dow. But the other issue here with the Dow from the flip side is that this is a very overextended index. You could see the RSI had 80, which is a very high reading. You don't typically see an 80 reading on the Dow very often. If you go back and you look at this period of time, it looks like it got to around 76. The last time we really saw readings this high in the Dow were in 2017 and then the blow off top in 2018. And so this is sort of an interesting little spot here. It's not to say that the Dow can't go higher just because the RSI is very high because that certainly isn't what it means, but it just means that you should be careful because, again, it is getting extended. And we look at it from a Bollinger band standpoint. You could see we've already brushed up against it. So it may very well be the case that we see the Dow sort of consolidate a little bit here before initially making that next move higher. If that next move higher is actually going to even come. So I would watch the upper Bollinger band. That's obviously going to be a level of resistance and watch this RSI. They're both really overextended and it's suggesting that it may be due for some sort of consolidation or pullback before it can make another move higher potentially. And then finally, when we look at the UK footsie, not really looking that great here, the one thing that is noticeable about the footsie is that it is still sitting right below resistance at 75-30. It looks like there's a bear flag that has formed in the footsie. Here's our pole. Here's our flag. You can count one, two, three, four, five. Perhaps it's suggesting that we see a break lower in the footsie back to a test of the 7300 region. The footsie really hasn't gone much of anywhere until we break above 7605, which is this clear downtrend that's in place. It looks like this is an index that's pretty much not going anywhere, much like the Dow was a few months ago, but clearly until you see a breakout, hard to say that there's really much upside potential here. And there's really significant risk, I think, with this pattern for a downside move and a retest of 7300. Now, if we were to get to 7300, that would be the one, two, three, four, five, six time. It's not often an index or a stock test something six times and makes it out successfully. So I would be watching for another test here. And if that happens, it may not be a great outcome. So anyway, have a great rest of your day, and I'll see you soon. Bye.