 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The TFNN Bull Bear Trading Hour. Every trading day, live at 10 a.m. Eastern. Call now. Toll free at 877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. The TFNN Bull Bear Trading Hour. Now, Tom Ant, Tommy O'Brien. Welcome, folks. Appreciate you growling and prowling with us out here. We have the now industries up farty. You get the NASDAQ up 32. S&P's up two. Gold contract, up a buck. Trading 12, 86. We get silver down 10 cents, $14.80. Announce, light sweet crude. We're going to have the EIA numbers out this morning. We're at $63.83 flat. Notes and bonds continue on higher price, folks. Had big volume in these days. Yesterday, as they're pushing into the swing area, and it's falling throughout here today, you get the 10-year-up 7.6, $123.28, 30-year-up 22, $148.05, and $king-dollar. $king-dollar down 191.6, $9701. We did come down yesterday. First day, we got volume in the months on $king-dollar on the way down. Euro is trading at 112 to $1.00. The yen is out here at 111.17. The pound is at 130 to $1.00. Apple saved the NVX. They got it done, as they usually do. Got it done. We were looking at that expected move all day long. Talk about pegging, right? On the TD Ameritrade network. I think it started at about $8.80 in the morning. It was up to maybe $9.50. Yeah, exactly. And Apple's been oscillating, yeah, from like $9 to $10, pretty much right on the peg. I don't love it. Lots of numbers coming out today, folks. Just had the ISM. That came in week. That's where the market took a bit of a hit. We get the Fed this afternoon at 2 o'clock. For sure do. And right now, folks, we got our man, Mr. Kevin Hinckes, from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim. Every trading day, 45 minutes from now, folks. Great program. You want to understand option, option strategies. Great time to do it. Particularly a great time to do it, because we were having fun with that Apple yesterday. Oh, it's great. We kept pulling it up, right? That was an expected move, and it kept moving. It kept moving. Kevin Hinckes, what's going on? Good morning, guys. How we doing? Apple is such a, you know, obviously each day in the earnings season takes on a personality and a headline name, and clearly today is Apple. So we're going to watch Apple all day. The numbers were pretty impressive when they came out. You know, of all things, guys, everyone has that something that they were looking at, right? What really hit me was margins. 37%, 38% on the margins. That means that, you know, this company is still growing and still doing things at a high margin level. So, you know, I look at Apple a different way than some other people. So many people just want to look at iPhones. And there's so many parts of Apple's company that are still growing, wearables, and the services. Those are growing. So I think as long as iPhones stay stable and, you know, tapers off in small percentages, this company's still growing, guys. Yeah, because they're blending. The services have a much bigger margin than the iPhone. So if they can blend that quick enough, it seems like they did yesterday. Right? That's a big deal. Let's say the iPhone's 30, 32%. Well, the service is like 60% profit. So the blend on that, you know, the service is a lot smaller. Your margins, you're talking about more. Yes, exactly. OK, so that really ups the whole deal. It's no doubt about that. Not to mention, they raise the dividend and are buying back a boatload of stock. Yeah, at least. That's $75 billion. Yeah, I mean, if the company was worth $750 billion, that'd be 10% of the company. And I know it's worth more than that, but that's just a quick math where it's like, man, they're almost buying 10% of the company back. So they just hit a trillion right now. But congratulations, Apple. There you go, we're back above. That's $0.75, right? That's what that'll come down to. Yes, 7.5%. Yeah, this is a company that just can, and the number one thing, say what you like about the company, say what you don't like about the company, they are a cash flow machine. So all they do is. Yeah, no, you can see that. And we just said that ISM, that's a little soft. The Fed, that's going to throw some volatility in here this afternoon. Sure. I think we all know that we're expecting something dovish. The real question is going to be how dovish, right? The way these bonds are still trading, it's like, man. Right, because think about it. You know these reporters, he's going to take questions. And they're going to ask him, number one, about the things that Trump is saying about lowering interest rates. And number two, they're going to ask him about a 3.2 GDP print and a pretty strong retail sales number that came out a week ago. And he's going to have to say, well, which is it? If the market's strong, why aren't rates going up? Or why aren't you raising rates more? If you're not raising rates, what is going on with a 3.2 print and GDP and strong retail sales? And why is the Trump administration wanting them to lower rates? So everyone's talking their book. You know how that is, Tom. Everyone's talking what will help them the most. That's a tough question to answer. I agree. And that's the only reason to really watch this press conference is because they're going to try and corner them and make him make a statement. When he's getting better and better at not making statements, when he started off, he wasn't as good at it. He kept making headlines, which I think a Fed Chairman does not want to always do. But sometimes he can't help it. But now he's getting much better at that. Yeah, no doubt. You know, Kevin, yesterday, Tommy and I, we were having some fun with this expected move. Because when we were on with you in the morning, it was 8.80. Right. And then as soon as we get off, it's not crawling up very quickly. It was definitely above 9. Yeah, the premium was going up on those options All that is, guys, that is the front expiration. Now with three days to go, the implied volatility month. And that front expiration, I keep saying front month, I date myself in terms of options trading. The front expiration, where that implied volatility trading and that at the money straddle, that's what's making up. That one day market maker move it's called. This is the one day move in Apple. And so that's why it moves. It moves with the implied volatility. Yeah, it was cool to see it going up, actually. Yeah, I know. And then we're saying, we'd love to know, you know, how do these normally move ahead of earnings, right? And then if the premium does go up, what happens as the numbers? Tommy, it's like a fingerprint. Every single stock is different. And every earnings season is different. And it's worth monitoring, though. What you guys did yesterday was telling in terms of how Apple's moving today, right? It didn't disappoint. It's now a dollar or two over that expected move. And that's why maybe that move went up during the day with J.P. Morgan only looking for a $2 move. And we said on fast market, this looks small. For where we are and what we're doing, sure enough, you get over a $4 move. So sometimes for traders, you look at that number and say, that's too small, that's too big, or that's right on the nose, that feels pretty accurate to me. Because all that number is a reflection of the supply and demand of options and the order flow and the implied volatility. So that's where you're getting that information. And it's not the answer to the test, but it's part of the question. Yes, no, it's cool. Because we pulled up the puts and the calls at that. And you could see that it was basically you add them together and there you go. You're doing the thing. That's pretty awesome, isn't it? We love it. And folks, it's really easy to test drive the Think It's One platform. Just come over to our website at TFNN and you're going to see the banner, hit the banner, bring it up. If you don't have it, folks, you want to test drive this deal because it's a professional platform. Oh, yeah. When you get the demo, I mean, we're looking at the demo right there. You know, as in there's your, you know, the analyze tab, you get in there and you got the whole kit and caboodle, man. For sure. Yeah, I love it. Kevin, you have a great one, safe one. You get lots of action today, man. Thanks for having me on, guys. Thanks, Kevin. Have a great one. Stay right there, folks. Tommy and I are coming right back. We have it out up 42 and it's like up 37. That's a piece of three and a half. We're going to have a little numbers for either 1030, folks. The Taz Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? 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TFNN.com, educating investors. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. Folks, Dow, Dow up 40, Nasdaq up 31, S&P's up 3, and for Apple to be up $11, we can take a look at that NDX in a bit, but that's not helping that NDX that much, you know? We just, let's see, NQ, I don't think it's taking out the highs of yesterday yet, of Monday rather. What's tough is you have Google offset and a lot of that, right? Yeah, exactly. I mean, Google's down 10%, Apple's up 5%, but the two, if you... Yeah, you can see it hasn't taken a note. And that's, you can see that even the, you know, just to back it up one second, in terms of it's literally there's your Google, and is that... Well, I guess they came out after though, right? They did, but that's a 430. I mean, that's quite a fine. Yeah, that's, I just wanted to get the time right. So yeah, once you get up here, it is like 5 o'clock. Cool. Yeah, and if we go inside that NDX, Apple, of course, up 5. Yep, look at that. Now down, now up 1180, man, and that move was 880 to start off yesterday. Take two Interactors, up 3% AMD. That's a good move too. That's up 2.6. Amgen's up 2. I know, Netflix's up 2. Amgen down 3. ADP's off 3. What is this one? Willis Towers. Must be earning season, right? Yeah, and Fastenall's off 1.8. Okay, oil, right? Okay, we got it. So let's pull over here. So we're getting oil numbers at 1030. Gonna jump in here. Let's pull up the contract. Oil pretty much flat for the day. We're going into the call spreads. We're gonna check out some exposure, maybe, to the bullish and bearish side. So we're looking at the June contract, trading at 63.70. 63.71. We're gonna look for exposure, maybe, to the upside and the downside. It's kind of cool. It's basically what Kevin was just talking about in terms of, right, you get a real what's the cost to buy bullish exposure or what's the cost to buy bearish exposure. The other way to say this is that what we do is we basically figure out what the expected move is, because that's the price to buy these, for the oil contract every day, every Wednesday. So 63.72. We'd have exposure from 63.50 would be our best option. So you'd have about 22 cents to the upside. Now that's not gonna give us the expected move, because as Kevin said, you want the price of at the money, right? That's why we like these at the money. You buy them literally right at the money. No intrinsic value. You're just paying premium. Jump into the noons. That's what I was hoping. 63.75. Perfect. Wow. There we go. And the oil contract's even taken right up to it as we speak. So the bullish contract, oh, sorry, wait, 63. Nope, this is the bullish one. So that's costing us $18. Getting in at 63.93. The floor is 63.75, where the contract's trading at. And then we get the same exact $1.50 to the downside. And it's gonna be almost identical. $1 difference. Oh, and as we say it, we're looking at... 37. 37 bucks. So you're looking at 37 pennies. Yeah. Away from exactly where we're trading at right now. That's your expected move. That's pretty good. By noon. Boom, there you go, right? It's great, because it really does line up to the penny. Now let's just see how the dailies line up, because this would give us the expected move by $2.30. Right. This is the expected move by noon. This is the expected move by $2.30. And they're gonna line up at 63.50. So not quite ideal. The dailies here. Yeah, 63.50. So the noon... And we like the noon sometimes, because they give you a full hour and a half after the number drops at 10.30. Yeah. And you're trading right at it. And again, keep it in mind. This gives you the expected move where you get exposure in both directions. But just like Apple yesterday, if you just wanted to go on the bullish side, that was not gonna cost you half of that, you know, 9.80, you know, so 4.50. Just like in this trade, you want either side $18 to $19 as this ticks around 63.75. And so let's just take a look. C-O-M-R. Okay, so... Intra day... Let's see what we did. So you got a little pop here. Let's go into the downdraft from... That's last Friday, huh? Yeah, it's four days. That's last Friday. It sure is. Yeah, I'll take it. I'll take it to the downside. Okay. See if it shakes up. Yeah. I mean, yesterday quite a volatile day for sure. I did. I did. Gave it up on price. Yeah. Still at highs though. Oh, for sure. Everything in context. Putting it in context of where we've been. Exactly. And then even just to pull it up on a more shorter timeframe because the contract did, that ISM number hit everything, man. Yeah. Even at 10 o'clock. Where are we? Yeah, so look at that. It did spike from, you know, 63.85 to 63.62. Talking about over 23 cents. Just on that ISM, I mean, maybe that helps add to the downside. And, you know, when we line these up, we're at 63.75. We're now at six pennies even below that level. But nonetheless, we get the numbers in about six and a half minutes. Let's see what they're looking for. So live is probably up by now. Yes, it probably is. No, you're right. Perfect. Let's try and dig in. So we'll go top live. There you go. Crude oil. Let's see where we're at. Okay. Perfect. This is the what to watch. Let's just read and see where we're going. So gas stockpiles have fallen 10 straight weeks, the longest stretch of decline since 2012. Even if the total figures pay close attention to the regions. European cargos have diverted from New York to LA after California refinery problems sent prices more than 50 cents a gallon above futures. Wow. We talk about these refineries. Yeah. I know. So some arrived in the past week with more on the way. Pad 1C, which encompasses New York Harbor, delivery point for the NYMEX contract, is the lowest seasonally since 2014. So you see, I mean, it looks like they just take those tankers. You got to tackle out this ale. We're going to divert you, man. You're going to get my money. Yeah. Well, we got to go to a different port because they're not refining it at that point. Number two, crew production. February output was 11.68 million barrels a day in the latest monthly report released Tuesday. That's quite a bit lower than the 12 million in the EIA weekly figures for the month. Cushing stockpiles. Now the WTI Midland has backed off to about $5. DBL, what is that? Per barrel undercushing. There's more incentive to send barrels up to the hub rather than force them through the coast via train or truck. Again, talking about moving these around the country, right? Yeah. Inventories have stabilized in the mid 40 million range. U.S. crewed exports seem to be on the mend after getting hit by the ITC chemical tank fire. Again, we talked about it. It's amazing how these things play out for continual, right? That one fire in March and some bad weather that swept through Texas in early April. We aren't out of the woods yet though. Parts of the south were dealing with tornadoes, heavy rains, windstorms, much of the last week. While reports on outages were scant, some of the impact could show up in slower outflows. Yeah, so if you can't get those exports out of the country because of column natural problems, disaster in terms of weather. And let's just see if they do have any of those headline numbers. Let's see. So the API came in up a little bit more. So that was looking, I don't think it had the number there. Yeah, it's 6.3. Ah, there you go, okay. Yeah. So the crewed rose 6.81 million barrels. That was last night at four o'clock. And this gives us a number, I believe, so crewed. We're looking for... Whisper numbers. So four million. Four million barrels. Survey numbers 1.75. You want to guess? Where are we going? I think it's closed. Isn't it say closed? Oh, it does say entry closed. We missed it. Where did they cut it off? Five minutes? Maybe 10 minutes. I think it's 10 minutes before the number. Okay, we'll get in there. So looking for a build, right? Looking for a build. API was 6 plus. Whisper numbers 4 plus million. Survey numbers 1.75. We'll find out. It's coming to us. You're going to love it. Yeah. Hi, folks. Tom O'Brien here. If you'd like to get my daily newsletter on Market Insights, then now is a great time to sign up for a 30-day free trial. Every morning by 9.30, I send out my morning letter to subscribers with Market Commentary on a variety of markets, currencies, and all kinds of things. So if you're looking for a build, you're going to love it. You're going to love it. You're going to love it. You're going to love it. You're going to love it. You're going to love it. You're going to love it. You're going to love it. You're going to love it. You're going to love it. You're going to love it. You're going to love it. 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Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Excuse me. Are you amazed by this number? Is that what's happening? Don't worry. He's speechless, man. You shit, nine. So we get a rise of 9.93 million barrels. Median estimate was 1.7 like we talked about. You had the Bloomberg survey coming in at maybe about 4 million. Nonetheless, way over than we thought, jumping back. And you've seen quite a spike. There you go. You had $63.75, even ahead of that number we traded lower, which is just interesting. But you could have, as we pulled that up, right? Exposure from $63.75. Contract was gonna cost us about 37 cents, $37, but 37 cents in the price of oil. And you had exposure until noon. And so right away you got a spike down to $63.21. You can always have these orders in, you know, in terms of if you want to bid in there because that happens sometimes. But we'll follow back up. Nonetheless, pretty big build. Maybe cheaper gas prices coming at us. Yeah. Let's go to Ken in Kansas City. Hey Ken, what's going on? Oh, we lost Ken. Okay. Let's see who you wanted though. The stock was up there. Let me get it for you, sure. Sorry about that, Ken. That's all right, we got it. We got OI, oil you, OILU. Okay. One more, hold on, there we go. Okay, so let's take a look. Okay, so this is the ProShare's UltraPro three times exchange traded fund. Oh, I hope it was going short on this coming into that. Seek daily investment that corresponds to three times the daily performance of the corresponding benchmark. Okay, so WTI crude oil sub-index. Yeah. That's gonna be dropping as oil drops. Right, no, no, totally. Yeah. And these ones are always confusing. So not the three times ones, but see what happens is this. Okay, ProShare's UltraPro three times crude oil ETF. The fund will see daily investment results that correspond to triple the daily performance of its corresponding benchmark. Which is the Bloomberg WTI crude oil sub-index. Right. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, so if it's going down, this... It's just a triple exposure. No matter which way it went, up or down, huh? Yeah. But that's what's different about this one versus what happens is that... You're thinking of bearish ones, right? Bearish ones and bullish ones, right. Okay, but they're an inverse. A bearish is an inverse. It's still gonna just go up and down inversely to what it's tied to. So this is just oil times three. Yeah, period. No matter which way it goes. That's, you know, to avoid the confusion. Oil times three, that's it. Well, you know, it's intriguing about that. That's why I was like, oh, I hope it didn't go long. No, that's why this definitely is just, you know that this is a daily one because it's like, you're just going like, okay, if you're going up, it's gonna be three times up. If you're going down, it's gonna be three times down. Yes, yeah, right. The inverses are the same though when you say they're a daily one because they're just inverse. Going up, you're going down. Going down, you're going up. I understand that, but this one here is gonna go both ways on one deal. They don't need two for the same deal. I'm sorry, I lose you there. I don't know. You could have a bearish one that just acted inversely. I'm not sure what you mean. Just like the indices do. I understand, I understand. I think people could be lost when they're falling. I'm just trying to bring them along to what you're talking about. But that's, there's nothing to be lost over. That's, there really isn't. Okay. They only need one of these to go bullish or bearish where all the rest of them, they have a bull one and they have a bear one. But, okay, but can't you go, can't you go, if you, so you're saying that you- Well, you can still go long a shot this, yeah. But you could do the same thing with an equity. I understand that. You're implying that they need a bearish ETF to go bearish on the equities. No, I'm not implying they have a bullish and bearish. Right, right. And this one here, they only have one. Right. But they could have a bearish. That's all. Yes, they, they could. They could have a bullish one too, but they don't. They do have a bullish one. This is the bullish one. No, this is the bullish or bearish. This is bullish. Everyone is bullish if it's the nature. Do you see it? If you want to bullish NASDAQ, it's just owning the NASDAQ times three. It's not a bull. You know, this goes 300 times down or up. But that's a bullish ETF one. We have to get this straight because now people are listening. So that's, I'm not gonna, you can't just like, let it go. A bullish ETF to the bullish side, a triple, we should pull these up. Right. Is still gonna lose you three times to the downside. I mean, yeah. Okay, so that's not a bullish one. That's just a... What I'm trying to explain is this, okay? If we pull up, if we pull up dig, okay? Yep. This here, okay, corresponds to oil going higher. It's a 200%. Yep. If I pull up DUG, this corresponds to oil going lower. Correct. The one we just had only has one for both of them. But dig is one for both of them in the same way that you're saying. I understand that, I understand that. I don't know. I don't think you really, you're not doing a good job explaining than the differences. And they just don't have a bearish one. Everyone, there's not enough. I understand that. Okay. I'm trying to, that's why I get lost when I do it because when they started, they'd have a bullish and a bearish. They have these here that just have one. So that's, but we shouldn't call it a bullish one. I think that's what's confusing because all you're doing is just a triple exposure one. Okay. That's a... I understand. I understand. That's what I'm trying to get to. Okay. There's a lot of people that are... Okay. Careful, folks. Careful, careful. Let's see where oil is right now. My goodness. They're not bullish ones. We have to go over this. Because I can't, there's hundreds of people watching, right? At least. No? Okay. We're gonna leave them confused. I feel like there's a lot of people left confused out there. Okay, so one is not a bullish one. When you pull up... Like the one we just pulled up. Oil you. That is not a bullish one. I understand that. Okay. You keep calling them bullish and bearish though. There's not. There's overexposure. Don't get frustrated. There's people out there that gotta understand this, man. They're not bullish ones. They're just triple... Why can't you get to the point that everything else is two of them? A bullish and a bearish one. Not everything, okay. No, that's how they set up. This other one just has one, to go both ways. That's the, okay. That's the one we just pulled up. That's the only one in the world you're saying. That's your... There's not many of them. Well, that's not all of them. That's what... Don't get frustrated with me, because there's a lot of people out there just like me. And that's why you can't just let them go and you think this is a clarity conversation for them? That's... We'll move on. Let's take a look at some of the higher volume equities out here. The... You got Advanced Micro up 32 cents. Apple, that's up 12 bucks. CVS, now this stock was getting hit. Yeah, earnings. Yeah. So that's up 340. Yeah, it's the first time I got a pop in a long time. What are you talking about? About down. So that's down from 113. Ooh, that's a hit, man. Let's see what they have to say. So earnings... Estimate was 151. They came in at 162. Fiscal year, they were looking at... They were looking at 668 now. They'll go at 675 to 690. I think they'd be on revenue. Maybe tick down one more. Yeah, they're 61.6 versus 60.24. Not bad for a quarterly revenue, 61 billion. And I believe this is the first quarter after they had... Who'd they buy? The big health provider. This is the first full quarter, I believe, that they're fully integrated with that big... Yeah, they bought some of it. I can't believe it's escaping me, right? I mean... It wasn't boots, really, man. No, that's walking. That's their biggest competitor. Stay right there, folks. Tommy and I are coming right back. We have the Dow Industries right now, up 47. That's, like, up 29. S&P's up 2. Gold, gold, down a buck at 1284. We're gonna be getting action coming right up to 2 o'clock, folks. Come right back. 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That's tfnn.com and hit Watch Tiger TV for the latest market information. And folks, Dow. Dow right now is up 39, Nasdaq's up 28, S&Ps are up one and a half. Let's go over to our admin, Mr. Teddy Kegstack, as we do each and every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. You can reach Teddy every trading day, folks, at Forex dash trading dash unlock dot com. Teddy Kegstack, what's going on, brother? Morning, guys. How you doing? Morning, Teddy. What's going good, man? Hey, we got Fed Day today. We're going to have some movement in these currencies. We do have Fed Day today, you know? And it's pretty interesting last week how we were talking about the dollar pushing the move towards the end of the week. And we got the rebound. We were looking for that possible profit-taking move. So now the really interesting thing is to see what's leading and what's not with the dollar. You have the euro and the pound, the two big weights in the dollar index that are positive, but the US dollar Swiss is the one that's making the big move. That one fell out of bed today. So, yeah, the other ones have been rallying since Friday, but the Swiss was kind of holding kind of neutral underneath these highs, and then today it released. So, and the interesting thing is, remember we were talking about the strength in the dollar, where was it really the dollar, or was it the weakness and more of the other? Yes. The lesser measures, you know? And if you look at the New Zealand dollar, as well as the Australian dollar, they're not acting like the other currencies are against the dollar today. So, it's kind of a, I would say, a balancing out. It was end of the month yesterday. Unlike the stock market, where they try and settle on positions and things like that, currency traders are different, you know? So, we're heading into this Fed time, you know? And I think one of the key things that we're going to be talking about I think one of the key things they're looking at are the numbers that came out recently. The GDP number and the earnings numbers. So, if we didn't have this dovish Fed, or this global dovish, I am basically across the board central bank leaning, I would say that they would probably be leaning towards raising rates right now, you know, to kind of slow things down a little bit. So, it'll be really interesting to hear if there's any talk of that today, because that's been pretty off the table. Teddy, how do you look at, like I have the euro up here, right? Now, how do you look at, like when I look at this, and you know, I'm not, to me it looks like it comes back inside its range again, but how does a currency trader look at that? Is that saying that the euro has a shot to go higher now, or how would you look at that? That's a really good point. Now, if you look at how it's traded, like right now it looks like it's a corrective upside move, because it's been basically in a fair trend since the end of the month. Full of marks, right? Yes. So, if you just look at it from that short term view, it looks like a corrective rally, and especially because it's coming back into that mid range, where it's basically been chopping around. Right. You know, it just looks like a pattern, kind of like the old signway, you know, it's just like you see it kind of just balancing up across a median line, you know, basically the 112 half to 113 area. So, if you're just looking at in the short run, I would say expect choppy conditions and kind of look for this to kind of be the buffer zone. Okay. Now, if we have a difference of opinion with the Fed today, that's when we could see, now if you take like that recent high back in the end of March, and then also into the high of mid April, kind of use that downward sloping trend line. If we reach that, and then get up to the 113 half area, that would be a very bullish sign that at least takes off the bearish sentiment for the Euro US dollar trade. I get it. So you're looking at the same way. You're just breaking the trend line, which is pretty cool, right? Okay, great. All right. Sure. And now if that momentum breaks, see that's the thing is, it's been in the short-term bear trend. And no matter what, the Euro has not been able to gain strength against the dollar. It can't get up to that 114, 115, 116 area. Yes. And usually when you can't get below 111 half, or 112 area, the Euro bounces goes back to 116 and it'll try and spike to 118. We failed to do that so far this year. Right. Right. So I think that if you, especially if the Fed comes out remotely changing the dovish sentiment, and then you also have to look at Venezuela. If this coup happens and it becomes bullish and good for the America train zone, then you probably see a little release in oil. Okay? And if the release in oil happens, then those are other four positive things for our economy which may make the Fed think twice about staying on this dovish stance. So it'll be interesting to see what they say at 115. I would say that if you're in a position right now with the currencies, obviously use your tight stop. Be careful of a really whipsaw trade in the afternoon. And that would be really like I said, is if their consensus is that they're worried about the growth. And I think that if we were dealing with a different Fed, like a Fed of a year ago or two years ago, they would look at these GDP numbers, the earnings numbers, and say that the economy is overheating, in my opinion. Yeah, no, no, there's a lot of moving pots right now, man. 3.2% of GDP, right? Yeah. Right, right. Yeah. Exactly. And these are things that weren't expected, you know? So to see how they filter that will be very interesting. I think that oil will be a key, especially if the Venezuela thing can get smoothed out because that means supplies are definitely going to increase again, you know? Yeah, and we just got the EIA numbers, man. And they're, they're- It's almost 10 million barrel built. Yeah, was the- Right, right. And it's the refining part that's hitting us right now with the gas, you know? Yeah. So we'll see how that balances. I mean, this build can't keep on going in the summertime and the gas prices not eventually start to go down as they turn from the whatever, the winter grade to the summer grade, you know? So, but those variables I think are kind of interesting because we talked about before last week in the last couple of weeks how the dollar is driving earnings in the market and may continue to do so into the third and fourth quarters. So if we do get a stabilization in Venezuela and if the Fed remains in this dovish outlook even amidst these growing factors, then I think you're going to see a very big acceleration of the economy. And this is where we might see a turn in the dollar, okay? Because as oil drops down and as the economy continues to go up then we should probably see the lesser majors as well as the majors go, but not just go into the range, back into the trading range but to go take away, you know, the trend again from the dollar strength. That's pretty cool. Yeah, I see what you're saying. Right, exactly. So the dollar wouldn't even have to move that if the economy is going so good it's just like everything else. Those other economies will start going better so their currencies can go up versus the dollar. Yeah, cool man. And what it'll do is it'll have a balancing effect where most people would say as the dollar weekends it's not good for us but if we have an accelerating economy and the dollar gets weaker that means our exports grow, correct? You know, so in all those things it'll balance out our earnings, you know which I think means that unless we have a majors to shake up like Venezuela goes bad oil continues to rally up to $80, $90. And something else like that. Those are the only things that I could see that would really shake up the economy towards a really negative way in which case you're gonna see some incredible movement in the dollar versus the major currencies. Yeah, and you know that, there's no doubt the it's nice seeing oil come down today. I mean, because gasoline, you know none of us buy barrels of oil but everyone buys gasoline, man. I was saying I don't wanna see $90 oil. No. No. No. Diesel's cheaper than gas. Yeah, well that's pretty sick. Yeah, right. Yeah. Listen, folks, every trading day you can check out Teddy at 4x-trading-unlocked.com and that oil just took another dive down, right? Yeah, perfect. Yeah. You're gonna love that. Teddy, you have a great week safely. Oh, hey, I hope you did good golf last week, man. You were going off golfing, man. How's it going, buddy? I'm sure. Hey, we look forward to speaking to you next week, man. Take care, guys. Thanks, Teddy. Stay right there, folks. Tommy and I are coming right back. We have oil right now at $63.18. Yeah. $63.18. Come right back. I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. I'm Steve Rhodes, author of Mastering Probability. And for the last 12 months, Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals, which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, 6, and 3 months. Timer Digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well. The fact is, markets can be timed. And I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do. Sign up for Mastering Probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of tfn.com and get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls to. Sign up today. It's amazing to think that Tom O'Brien started his weekly gold report 17 years ago with the first issue published April 7th, 2002, when gold was trading at under $300 per ounce. Gold peaked at more than $1,900 in 2011. 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For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Folks, we get some action and oil. We sure do, man. We might be below 63 bucks by the time we're off the air. And the ones we looked at, those are the noons. That would have been a sweet trade. I've got it up here. So this is the bearish side of the spread. It went till noon. You again, you'd have until noon if you want that exposure. You want to exit this trade right now. You're able to get $68. The whole contract was going to cost, as in both sides, 37. I kept saying, man, you could easily have taken this. You were maybe a little bearish, right? You're putting up about 18, 20 bucks. And if you want to let it run, man, that was a 10 million barrel built. It might run, it might run for sure. Well, you know what, Teddy just brought up there. I think I've been sort of straightened up, man. That's going to be a huge oil supply. Yes, yeah. Good luck, just good luck. Humanitarian, no, I say it like as in, that's quite an humanitarian deal, exactly. Yeah, so Bitcoin, right? The news out last week saying, Tether might not be backed by actual dollars. The article yesterday came out, I guess, saying that they actually said that it's backed by 74% of, yeah, so for every Tether out there, you have 74 cents of US dollar backing it. Not supposed to be what was happening. Excellent in the story today you pointed out that, and this is on Bitfinex, and that's the one under the controversy. So Bitcoin on that exchange trading $300 premium versus just Bitcoin on other exchanges, the reason why people are taking their Tether, so they're exiting Tether in the wake of the allegations and trying to get into Bitcoin, and then probably get Bitcoin off there as well. Because if they're raiding funds, they're supposed to be basically escrowed to cover the underlying, then that's who knows. Yeah, and it seems like that claim is legitimized because they already came out and said, you know what, yeah, we only have 74 cents on the dollar. There you go, equals 74% of the outstanding coins. And more than likely we'll see that, we'll keep tracking that folks, that premium will probably keep going up. And they only said that in court, because they had to, this isn't like they came out, so there might be more coming. Stay right there folks, we'll be a fastbacker coming up next in our man Basil Chatham and Steve Rollins, Dave White, be back this afternoon. Thanks, man. Thanks, man. Meow, fed day! Meow! Meow!