 We are moving right along, we're a little bit late. We're trying to catch up. I'm Richard Cooper. I'm from Harvard University. And we're going to talk about the world economy in this session. Ten days ago there was the annual meeting of the World Bank and the IMF. On such an occasion, the IMF comes out with its World Economic Outlet. Over the past ten years, the IMF has typically been too optimistic in assessing the new term. And regularly they've had to revise downward their estimates. So this past ten days was noteworthy. For one of the very few times they revised upward their forecasts. And there's a general sense of buoyancy about the world economy at the present time. And at the same time, however, the IMF comes out with a second, less public-sized report called Global Stability. And there they said things look fine in the short run, but all of the risk, not all, most of the risks in the medium to long run are on the downside. That particular report got less attention, but they point out a number of indicators, particularly the risk is that around the world. So we have here a marvelous panel, all experience. I'm not going to go through the names and bios in your book. And I'm just going to follow the order on our program. I've asked each speaker to talk just for eight minutes. And I hope that leaves us some time for questions before we have to yield our time.