 Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls and children of all ages, we are now here live at the Prince of Investment coming to you guys and girls live all the way from a beautiful city and state of Honolulu, Hawaii via Denver, Colorado. Ladies and gentlemen, guess what? It's a new year. This is the first episode of 2022. I'm honored and glad to be on for a few years now. So starting this year off, we have a lot of crazy things going on the market. We're still in the middle of a pandemic, something that came out in March of 2020 that we're kind of shocked that we're still dealing with in March of 2020. Well, coming up on March of 2022, two years later. Also, we have inflation. The latest CPI report came out, 7% inflation. Here's to Whopper. We have unemployment, the last unemployment report that came out last month. Unemployment has dropped down to 3.9%. So unemployment is dropping. We have inflation going up. We have, when the middle of midterms is coming up, so we're wondering, hey, where are we going in this whole market thing? We see technology stocks take a big drawback last year or 2020. Technology stocks was a darling. We've seen things like cryptocurrencies take a major drawback in 2022. Leaving most people, most investors, standing on the sidelines or people that are in the game wondering, what's next? What's ready for 2022? So you know I had to break on my great guess. Uncle James, he's here live all the way from New Jersey slash New York that I like to call it. He's definitely a friend and a contributor to the show that I love to have on, that I love to reach out to for mentorship and guidance. And last year he told us about the stock called BPT. So we're going to look at that BPT. What's coming up? Is it oil? Is it tech stocks? Is it consumer staples? Is it financial stocks? What's going on? What are our stock resistance predictions for 2022? Without further ado, let me bring up my guess. Mr. James Fortland, how are you doing today, sir? How are you? I am so glad to be back. And unfortunately, lately, this is about as close to Hawaii as I could possibly get, these Zoom calls. I feel warmer when I zoom into, like we do a Zoom call into Hawaii. It's awesome. I love it. It's awesome. So you said the magic word. Now, I know we got a short show here, so we got to step it up. Though that big word is inflation. And I believe that last year, I like not, maybe not early in the year, but later on in the year, I was screaming about inflation. People were not listening. I'm old enough to have lived through the 70s. I could see this thing coming. This is such a rerun of the 1970s. I feel like I'm watching an old TV show, probably starting like in about 1972 when we went off to, I think, 72 or 74, when Nixon pulled us off the gold standard. And then all the crazy things we did in the 60s started to catch up to us in the 70s. And inflation like ran wild for the whole decade. It's nice to see that the Federal Reserve and some government officials have finally embraced the idea because they were in like a denial mode for a while. And it was really silly, but at least they're facing up to it a little bit. And now, unfortunately for the Fed, they have to pay play some really major catch up. So that brings us once again to our stock picks and what are we looking at? Well, in some ways, it's really similar to last year. Once again, I'm going to tell you, oil will outperform crypto in 2022. Oil will probably outperform almost everything, except for maybe copper. The big weakness for us with oil was the stocks underperformed. Yeah, so the Jimmy drop, they're very, you was pretty on there. So there we go. Okay. The stocks underperformed the commodity. But this year, I think you're starting to see some catch up. If you reminded me of BPT, probably somewhere in the middle of the year, it hit a nice got up to about 642 or 649. Then it kind of went flat the last quarter of the year, along with a lot of oil stocks. Well, tech kind of was bouncing up and down. Tech, I think already started to correct in the last quarter. It's just those big giant tech stocks that like the four horsemen and all that stuff, they seem to pull everybody along. But a lot of the smaller companies were already having some issues, as you could see, at least from a stock price. I would say this is what I'm looking at this year. I'm looking at, I agree with Goldman Sachs, we are in a commodity supercycle and commodities led by oil, and then many other commodities such as copper and perhaps lithium and things like that are booming, and they're going to continue to boom. There is no way all this alternative energy can make up the energy gap that we see right now. Oil inventories are probably about 5% below the moving at the five year moving average. And we're 2% oil, total oil output is 2% under the demand right now, global demand, which is an enormous gap. To give you an example, if you wanted to build solar panels to make up enough power, you would have to have the whole entire state of Arizona filled with solar panels to have enough power to say power a small state like New Jersey. So we just don't have the room, like the technology is just not there yet. On the periphery, I think it works good. I think the biggest problem we face is again, we're into this, if you're for fossil fuels, you're against alternative energy. No, I'm for energy choice. I think there's a lot of options, and I'm certainly not against trying to destroy the planet. That's like absurd, but I also want to be warm at night. And when it gets to be like about 20 degrees in New York City, we need to turn those thermostats up a little bit. Anyway, I'm bullish on oil, and then the commodity story actually is really interesting. It's more than inflation. All this alternative energy, all these electric vehicles, the demand for commodities is going up because of these alternative, I call it alternative energy because I'm from the 70s, but the EVs and all this other stuff that you see, all this battery-powered vehicles, you need a lot of commodities for those batteries. So some people are saying Goldman said that copper is going to be the new oil in 2022. In other words, it's going to go to the moon. And I might have mentioned, I don't know if I mentioned it last year in the beginning of the year, there's a stock called VALVAL. I think it's the symbol or it might be V-A-L-E. It's a big mining company. Commodities are a hard thing to play because mining companies are notoriously sketchy, let's just say. And the big thing for your audience, because you have a lot of new investors in your audience, is that commodity stocks are very cyclical. So unlike a growth stock, which is growing like crazy and trades normally at a very high PE to reward that growth rate, so what you do is when you look at a growth stock, you go, wow, the PE is really low, that makes it a buy. Well, with cyclical stocks, it's totally the opposite because for example, if you mine for copper, your fixed costs maybe are climbing a little bit, but they're pretty steady over a long period of time. But the copper price is going up and down depending on demand, depending on new technology, depending on a whole bunch of stuff. So when you look at cyclicals, and I kind of made this mistake early with VALVAL, I bought in a little high because the PE was like down to three. And the stock kind of had a rough quarter at the end of the year, the PE has expanded a little bit. And what you do with cyclical stocks is you buy when the PE is high and you sell when the PE is low, it's like clearly the opposite of what you do with a growth stock. And I want to say something. I was looking at my notes, and you were right. When you looked at Bitcoin price January 1st of last year to where it ended the year of December 31st, and you look at BPT price at the beginning of last year to the December 31st, BPT oil outperformed cryptocurrencies. I mean, that thing is going to the moon, and I know there's a lot of detractors out there, but let's face it. I can ask you this question. Why are you so bullish on oil? Because we did this in the 70s. We try to do all this alternative energy. And it really can't replace what we need unless we're going to greatly lower our standard of living. And despite the fantasy that a lot of politicians have that think we're going to lower our standard of living, we're not going to do that. And you're seeing it now. I mean, that's part of the reason you're seeing all this remote work. I mean, COVID has speeded up changes that were long overdue in our society. And so because of COVID, you have more remote work. Because of remote work, you have more migration in the country. People are fleeing high-tax states or what they call the blue states, and they're moving to all the red states. And not only that, the companies now are following the people. So for example, Oracle moved their headquarters to Texas. Elon Musk has been very vocal about moving things to Texas. There's a bunch of other companies. Oh, Facebook just opened a big office in Austin, Texas. Surprise, surprise. And if you go to other states like Miami, Miami is becoming a huge crypto hub. And many people think that Miami may become the new Wall Street, that many of the big Wall Street firms are talking about moving down there. Is there taxes up in New York? No, yeah, there's no income tax. So I mean, for me, or for a guy like you, it makes a big difference. Imagine if you're making, why do you think a good basketball player plays in Miami? Because there's no income tax. So if you get $20 million a year, or $50 million a year, or $100 million a year, if you're not paying, that's a big savings. That's not a little savings. That's a huge savings. And I think people are fleeing. They're looking for more opportunity or more freedom, less restrictions, and lower taxes. And so they're going to all these red states. And I'm not talking politics. I'm just talking tax policy and just money. And I think now the power is shifting. I think a lot of stuff is pulling out of New York and out of like the Northeast, and it's going to be domiciled in Texas. It's going to be domiciled in Florida. It's going to be domiciled in Alabama. It's going to be, I mean, I have a city from Arkansas that sends me their emails trying to coax me to move down there. And I'm like, I've never even heard of it. And I was like, wow, that looks like a really nice place. That might be a nice place to live. And so there's a lot of that going on. And when you have this sort of great disengagement, like everybody's kind of quitting their jobs or changing their careers because COVID impacted them in some way. And they're trying to get a better handle on this. So they're like, you know what? I don't want to do this anymore. I want to do something else. And then on top of that, with all this remote work, it's like I could live in Florida. Like we're doing it right now. I'm in New Jersey, you're in Colorado, and we're on a TV station in Hawaii. How cool is that? And neither of us are technological geniuses, yet we're all doing this. And like the engineer is explaining everything really cool and it's working. And so that's the beginning. I think I brought a whole bunch of yellow pads. So I would shopping to buy more yellow pads. That's how excited I was. Hold on to that yellow pad because I want to take a quick break right here. I'm going to go into our break here in the show. Then we're going to come back. And I want to talk to you about that inflation run that you spoke about. Inflation just hit 7%. So I'm going to think about doing the break. How far do you think inflation is going to go? Because we know the Federal Reserve is going to come in. They're going to slow up the, they're going to taper back the asset purchasing. They're going to raise interest rates. But will they be able to, how far inflation is going to run before the Federal Reserve can be able to stop it? So anyway, ladies and gentlemen, we're going to take a quick break. I mean, a very quick break. And we're going to be right here, right back on the principle of investment right here on Think Tech Hawaii. Aloha. I'm Dan Leif. I go by fig because I was an Air Force fighter pilot for 33 years and you have to have a nickname. I get to host on Think Tech Hawaii two shows, figments, the power of imagination and figments on reality. The power of imagination introduces you to some of my incredible friends and their life experiences. Astronauts, war heroes, Hollywood writers, you name it. They're on it and you'll be inspired and entertained. And on reality, I'll give you something hard to find, non-political commentary on today's events. That's right, non-political because the vitriol doesn't help folks. So figments, the power of imagination, figments on reality, both on Think Tech Hawaii. Two major crises have descended upon humanity. I'm a change and the coronavirus. They may seem independent of each other. In fact, they are very closely linked. The emergence of COVID-19 on top of climate change is a spiraling crisis. And it's just the beginning. 2022 stock predictions started a new year. First shorter year, top of the year. Crazy prediction that Mr. James Foley made last year about oil and cryptocurrencies. That came out to be right. But we want to get back into this inflation that's seven percent before the break. Inflation, CPI report came out yesterday, consumer price index inflation at seven percent. We know the Federal Reserve is going to step in. They're going to taper back the bond purchasing asset purchasing program. And they're probably going to raise interest rates. But will this slow down inflation? James, how far are you thinking inflation is going to get before the Federal Reserve can slow it down? Because I've seen inflation was at about 13 percent in about 80, 81. So you think we're going to get up into double-digit inflation? Probably. I would say unless there's a major change in Washington, I think we're going to, we're going to, this four years is going to get away from us really badly. And I think inflation is like a weird thing. It kind of builds up, like, and then it kind of creeps up on you. All of a sudden, you'll start to notice more and more crazy things like the houses you were looking at for $200,000 a year ago or now, $300,000 a year. You'll just, you start to feel it. It permeates everything. And when the Fed has to play catch-up like this, they're going to be raising, I mean, you're looking at like, maybe for them to really get going, they're going to have to jack interest rates up probably twice a month, all like for the whole year. And that won't even, that won't even get them even. They're just like, they'll barely be caught up. I just, I think they let the cat way out of the bag here. And this is, this is, you know, cataclysm catastrophic really coming. All right. Now, Jays, I want to ask you this question. Why are you so big on, what does copper, you explained about oil, why does copper in these other commodities, why are they set to, what's going on? Histories for beating yourself. I wasn't here in the seventies in the early eighties. So let me know. Well, this is where you had gold like jump to the ceiling and all the, all the crazy gold bugs got really rich and sat around waving their fingers at everybody going, I told you so. I told you so. The world is coming to an end at the end of yesterday. You know, I don't think the world's coming to an end. I don't think the tech sector is finished. I think the tech sector is correcting. And I think that the commodities are going to go up because historically, like hard assets increase in value and inflationary environment. In other words, if today I have a hundred dollars and I can buy a hundred dollars worth of groceries at three weeks from now that a hundred dollars by seventy five dollars worth of groceries, if I have a fixed asset like copper, gold, silver, titanium, lithium, something like that, those, the value of that stays the same yet it takes more and more dollars to keep buying them. On top of that, now you have all these EVs. So Tesla needs tons of lithium for those batteries. Everything with technology uses tons of copper, lithium, all these like metals. And I think between the two, the inflation push on the price and the demand push on the other side. It's a recipe for, as Goldman called it, like a cyclical commodity boom. I just think we're going into one of those big booms like the seventies where gold just went up and up and up and then it flattened out around, I don't know, eighty eighty two. What do you think? So what sector, what stock, what companies you think are going to get crammed, meaning going down, it's going to go into a bearish state and why? I think you're going to have a lot of issues with, I think tech is into a big correction now. And this is not to say that I don't think a lot of these companies are going to make tons of money. I don't see really how inflation is going to really impact companies like Google and Microsoft, because a lot of them are making money off selling your data and managing your data. And data is not going to go away if anything is going to be more of it and it still needs to be managed or somebody needs to spy on you and steal your information so they can sell you stuff. And so there's a lot of that. I think that, but what's happening now is because tech went up like crazy and I hear this all day long on all the Wall Street shows, interest rates go up, it's going to hurt the tech industry. So it's kind of like a self-fulfilling prophecy at the moment. But over time, some companies are going to start to they're going to start to stand out and they're going to reverse this trend. Probably a lot of the big tech stocks that did really well the last couple of years are going to resurface and do well again. And then there's certain areas like stuff like remote work. Again, I'm going to hawk 3D printing, which I've been hawking since 1995. I've never made any money with it, but I continue to think it's the next big thing. And so I think there's there anything involving remote anything and anything that facilitates remote anything, I think is a home run. I think in the short. Now, what do you think about the travel industry? I think it's going to be a tough go. I think a lot of these companies have sold their soul to the devil. They have dug their own graves. They have done stupid things. The travel industry of anything should be looking to be promoting a more open society, because open societies travel more, not focus on how many restrictions we can throw on travelers and all this kind of stuff under this idea that somehow you're safe. If anybody thinks they're not breathing a lot of germs when they fly a plane, they need to reassess their, they need to do a little reading because it's like taking the subway and thinking you're not going to get any germs because you have some little mask on. It's packed with people. It's not clean. It's like and same with the with the with an airplane. You're in recycled air. You're packed in like a bunch of sardines. It's it's it's it is what it is. I think at this point in the game with COVID we have we have what at least 50% of all adults have been vaccinated that about 45% of the rest of us have either gotten COVID or like so we have some kind of natural immunities. I just think right now they're they're milking this thing. I and not to say that it's not serious if you're a high risk if you're in a high risk group it's high risk just like the flu is just like a cold is if you're high risk it's high risk. Don't don't take if you're in any of those high risk groups you need to take this really seriously but for a lot of healthier people and young people yeah wash your hands be careful but you're you're like especially this Omnicron pretty much all the data says it's basically like getting a cold and you know like a light cold so to close down whole businesses and stuff over Omnicron is kind of silly it just I think you're we did this already it didn't really work we need to find a new strategy and I think the travel industry is kind of to some degree instead of promoting openness they've kind of encouraged this you know all our pilots have to be vaccinated everybody works for the airline has to be vaccinated all the passengers are going to be have to be vaccinated and not only that now we now I'm starting to hear like we have people say well the vaccine's not enough you got to get at least one booster and maybe you're going to have to have two boosters then I'm asking this question what do you think of the financial industry well finance is going through a big change again just like when the internet started I think this this blockchain is a direct threat to traditional finance I think the problem is with blockchain is blockchain needs a buttonwood tree moment they need a buttonwood agreement they need some kind of regulatory framework to work within so the big boys will feel more comfortable and there's enough liquidities for really big guys to trade right now you hear about some of the big guys but in essence the whole entire crypto market is like what not even it's not even as big as the gold market it's tiny and even but it gets 90% of the press but it's really small the other problem with the with the with the whole finance market and with blockchain and all that is there's no big like blockchain promoters out there going this is how we're going to help grandma do this this is how we're going to make your life easier for you I can remember like I don't know if it was Jim Clark or somebody when Netscape when public they were like even an idiot like you can go on the internet now and I was like and they were all right you didn't you didn't even have to know how to read to use an Netscape browser that's how easy it was that was an awesome technology and that's why everybody got on the internet the question even with the rise you know the Fed is going to kind of come out and run up behind interest rates and you know they're talking about raising interest rates about three times this year um you don't think the banking industry would benefit from that I the bet that not the raises later on because you'll re-establish the yield yield curve that's what you need you need rates to go much higher than they should be because then when the Fed for example if interest rates are 20 percent and the Fed cuts them down by to 15 percent that's a huge boost to the economy but when interest rates are are 1 percent and the Fed cuts it to three quarters of a percent that doesn't do anything that really does that's just like the gravy it it loses it's it's a Fed tool that's disappeared so the Fed needs to tighten up the money supply uh stop printing money buy up all the clean up its balance sheet um and start ratcheting up rates I would say maybe like twice a month they need to jack up rates like crazy and I know when I say that people are going to have a nervous breakdown but my thing is I'm trying to see who will benefit from rising interest rates well once rates are up to a certain level back to the historic mean then banks now have re-established the spread so they can borrow money at five percent and lend it out at 20 percent they can do that again right now it's kind of all flat so it doesn't really it's not really working right that's one thing the second thing is in the long run I think a lot of this blockchain but James but if like you said by interest rates going up that's going to increase the spreads for the banks which 100 agree the Fed comes out let's say I think the next meeting is sometime next month they come out and say hey we're going to take interest rates up to one percent and then go to two percent and three percent we might end the year up at I don't know four percent or something like that I should hope so I'm looking for that yeah wouldn't that take banks from having that flat spread to like opening it up some more to making them more profitable to be able to borrow the other thing is is if more people put cash in banks that paid interest it's a cheap it's cheap access to capital now mind you the money center banks they can't depend on that but smaller banks and we talked about small banks a long time ago I remember one time over the phone for a while smaller banks need that they need those local depositors because that's cheap money for them to lend out to you know they can you leave money in your savings account you get two percent interest and they give it to somebody else who has a credit card with them and they charge them 20 percent interest the spreads huge but when you don't have we know there's no reason for anybody to put money in a bank right now what are they trying to do they're trying to sell you insurance they're trying to make it up in fees there's like a fee for everything and all they do is piss off all their customers and then you have blockchain coming along and creating all these like banks for the unbankable non-bank banks all this kind of stuff where you have like one card and like you can you don't even need a bank anymore you can transfer money on and off that card you can do all kinds of things you can have your your your paycheck deposited on that card and there's there's just a lot of stuff like that and I think that's um that's probably banking at its most elemental form that's what banking is all about really it's it's it's it's growing capital community capital so that money can be redeployed in that community for you know businesses house home loans things like that and that's kind of what we've been missing because now all these banks just borrow money from the fed and then they loan they do crazy stuff like buy cbo's with the money so they can get these huge returns and then and then we're the only time we hear from a bank is every 10 years or so we're asked to bail them all out again so now what about uh you know I went back and I read uh burshires you know Warren Buffett's shareholders later letter back in the 80s I think it was 81 82 um when the last time we had inflation that was in double digits and uh mark down his part he was he was talking about you know invested into companies that are uh what did he say he said invest into companies who can raise their prices very easily they got a price in their environment aka like a coca-cola coca-cola can raise their price by 10 cents maybe I don't I don't know anymore like in the 80s they probably could see I think Microsoft could raise their prices Google could raise their prices a lot of these tech companies that supply uh technology that you can use for social media that businesses use like I use this thing called Hootsuite and they just came out and they said for the first time in 10 years we're going to raise our prices and like and I use uh Mailchimp and Mailchimp has raised their prices and uh there's going to be some trade off a lot of people are going to go well that's too expensive I'm going to look for an alternative um but there's some stuff like that there just isn't going to be an alternative so people are going to you know there's certain software that you're just you if you want security software you got to pay for it and some of those companies like have that they have that pricing power I just I think it's there I'm not sure coca-cola does anymore they might have had it at one time but I'm not sure anymore because that's so to market now is so changed same with beer we used to say like antihires or bush could get away you know get away with anything but maybe not anymore maybe yes maybe I'm wrong I like I'm not so sure consumer products are that thing anymore I think I think many of these consumer products that we all that we all kind of know have done a lot to damage their reputation in the last couple of years so I'm not really sure they're the go-to things anymore so James zone we got to get rolling we got to get out of here what do you want to leave with the audience um I want the audience to you know just embrace the dynamic of the market it's it's it's you got to when you invest you're looking to make money and you're looking to manage your risk and make money so don't don't be like just because you're buying oil stock doesn't mean you don't want to drive an electric car like don't there's it's not one or the other it's a combination of everything creating um you know really creating a better environment for everybody but it has to work together that's number one and number two I would say don't give up on tech even though it's correct going to correct maybe maybe well and through the first quarter don't don't give keep eyeballing those stocks you like because they may get real cheap and they may be I don't know I wouldn't say a fireside sale but a lot of them are going to trade down in prices and there might be some sort of generational opportunities coming up here to buy some really good quality tech stock names that in the two years from now they're going to go well they had pricing power just like we said on the show and even though we didn't think so at the time because we were all buying Coca-Cola because we thought Coca-Cola had pricing power um and I and I think for a lot of people it's it's like a good you know don't don't don't look like right in front of your nose look if you got to look out to the future and well well James definitely how can people follow you how can people get more of you how can they find you on your tours out there in wall street I don't know how all right well I wanted to tell everybody tonight is that um I I'm taking a little hiatus from tours because I was pulled out of retirement to work on an investment banking deal um I've done a little crowdfunding and I'm working on a project on WeFundr called the king of com we're actually selling a tv show and the difference between WeFundr say and and go fund me is that WeFundr you actually sell equity in the project so people a small investor can get a piece can get some ownership so we we I set up the site we filed with the sec we did all kinds of crazy stuff and and it's kind of a nifty fun thing um and it's got me it's got me pretty busy for the next couple of months I'm going to be working on it like crazy and that's kind of the thing you can of course find me on my facebook page unofficial wall street that's still there I'm going to keep updating it all the time um and generally if you send me a question or say hello on there I'm I'm usually pretty friendly most of the time and then uh and if you send me an email if I don't answer it right away it's not because I'm ignoring you it's just probably because the way facebook works I didn't even know I got the email because that for some reason I'm they're really slow with the notifications from that particular page I don't I don't know what I did wrong when I set it up but I must have done something wrong so that's me all right well ladies and gentlemen boys and girls and children of all ages uh James we definitely appreciate you for having your own you know you're going to be back on definitely appreciate your uh insight that we're going to play back and ladies and gentlemen to the next video podcast cartoon book or whatever you see me do crazy around the globe my name is Prince Dext I'm the Prince of Investment peace be safe I'm out and thank you