 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network I don't think I could have planned a week off any better because when you come back from a week away from work You're kind of groggy You don't really want to work or anything like that and it's not exactly where you want to dive back in both feet first and go full Out luckily for me. I'm coming back for the MLB all-star break Which means things are a little bit quiet things a little bit slower around here Which means we can ease our way back in but still some fun because the home run derby to me has always been One of the best events the entire summer So we're gonna break down the derby for tonight talk about Hopefully some things I'm seeing maybe talk about some first-hand matchups and bets that I like to get you ready to enjoy Tonight's derby in a fun fun way welcome on into covering this spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire here to preview tonight's MLB home run derby breaking down Hopefully the spots we can see some value based on the odds over at Fandall sportsbook Do you want to extend a big? Thank you to Austin Swain for filling it for me across this past week giving you some insights on Monday And then Wednesday through Friday Austin. Thank you as always. Thank you Tom back you as well filling it for me over on the solo shot be hearing from those guys again Then not too distant future, but I'm here for a bit So you have to deal with me for it right now if you're watching over on Fandall TV or the Fandall YouTube page Apologies to the lack of setup. I just moved waiting for all our stuff to arrive So you'll see no hat Jim finally back in the fold Unfortunately because if I put my hat on it looks like I'm in a hostage video So we're gonna go without the hat for a bit to make things a bit brighter We'll get back to a regular format next week once our stuff fully arrives and hopefully make things a bit more aesthetically pleasing for Those of you on the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus take your first wing at betting MLB on Fandall and get ten times Your first bet amount and bonus bets up to two hundred dollars. That's right Just bet twenty bucks and you'll land two hundred dollars and bonus bets win or lose That's two hundred you can spend on betting everything from the money lines to over unders to who you think is gonna win Hit the first home run all that that say it's secure and super easy to use plus when you win You can get paid instantly. 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So proceed with caution for sure. The big thing to consider typically is the park because Obviously parks are different. They are not congruent where it could be much better for writing than for lefties And that is the case this year because the overall home run park factor at T-Mobile Park is 98 at baseball savants With a hundred being averaged there. So overall, it's 98 to bit below average But it's 104 for righties and 90 for lefties So right-handed batters would have a pretty big leg up And I went into the sinking glad look to the field yet thinking okay cool Just you know fade the lefties but the only guy in the derby who is not a righty is Adley rushman he's a switch hitter and He said he'll likely start batting left-handed and may switch during the round to keep things fresh I don't think we can glean much from that I do think it downgrades rushman a bit being that he is a more powerful batter as a left-handed batter than a righty So if he does go righty, it's gonna downgrade his overall His overall I would say it's skill in that regard as far as trying to hit home runs So I would downgrade rushman. That's the only take that we have from the park for tonight second thing to consider as a format because the format changed Where it used to be based on outs be be bad from before 2014 on but from 2015 on It's based on time instead and that's made a pretty big difference and if you watch the derby to me It always seems like you see guys get kind of gas You see them get worn out as the round goes long So it seems like a lot of physical big guys have won the derby in this time All of the winners from 2015 on have weighed at least 210 pounds and four out of the seven have weighed at least 245 era judges in their Jean-Carlo Stanton and Pete Alonso twice So four to seven winners 245 pounds are heavier only two guys in this year's field that weigh that much or weigh that much are Pete Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. And not surprisingly they have been in the same derby once that was in Cleveland Back in 2019 I was at that one Which is a lot of fun and they met in the finals Vlad put on a massive show Alonso eventually won So it's not a huge surprise based on the weight trend that both those guys Did do well in the one derby. They were together back in 2019 as far as other weights go at the Richmond Let's say 230 Julio Rodriguez 228 Luis Robert is 220 at least Garcia is 205 The two guys with low weights that I would deem to be kind of red flags may give us some policy or Randy Orosa rena and Mookie Betts both those guys 185 and 180 Respectively so I would say for them. That's a bit of a concern It's not a cross-off because again We're dealing with a sample of seven derbies and it's paired with anecdotal Evans watching guys get gassed I mean seeing the physical guys kind of come through So it's not fully conjecture, but I do think I would Downgrade those guys a bit as a result of their weight Finally, I do think it's worthwhile to consider batting statistics I done a study a couple years ago About which numbers correlated best to success in the home run derby and at the time Fly ball rate was a big key and it makes sense because at the time I think this was 2016 2017 or so it was right when they had switched to being timed instead of outs If it's if you're a line drive batter, you can get you can run out of ten outs pretty fast there so I Think that that's why we can potentially downplay that like Juan Soto was the winner last year and so too Didn't have a better fly ball right last year than typically he typically does but he's never really been a huge fly ball guy I do still want to look at it because Peter Lonzo is the lone two-time winner in this time And he puts the ball in the air a ton But it's possible that that factor is not as important as it once was so The hand in this stuff doesn't really gives huge leg up because it's kind of just knocking down Richmond the weight stuff I do think bumps up with Vladimir Guerrero junior and Peter Lonzo and then that does bump down a bit Mookie bets and Randy Arosa reina and then as far as the stats go we'll dig into those when we talk about the individual match ups And lucky for us over at fangal. You can bet on the individual matchups in a round once Let's dig into those and see if we there's any value here that we do want to take before we talk about the overall derby winner here In just one second first round one match was the least robert taking on adley ruchman Robert is minus 250 rushman plus 198 as mentioned I'm pretty low on rushman and that's as a result of the fact that he'll be Left-handed if he is playing to his strengths, but right hand if he's playing to the the the park strengths I don't think that's a great, you know mesh there So I'm lower on him then I am on robert But the problem is that the price here is pretty steep minus 250 he says to me that other betters who have bet into this market Already are saying the exact same thing Ruchman does have the weight edge. He does You know it does have that for sure But robert is going to be the guy with the edge everywhere else as far as flight ball rate barrel rate launch angle exit Vilo Robert has the edge there. I think because this is a somewhat chaotic hard to predict event I can't get to minus 250 on robert's, but I think that makes it a stay away I'm definitely not taking the ruchman as an underdog to me This one's a no bet as always. No bet is better than losing bet So I'll pass on that first one, but in my head if I'm filling out a bracket I'm penciling robert into round two based on pretty much everything that we discussed the second round one matchup Hey, it's going to be at least Garcia taking on Randy arosa rena Not the second matchup But the one in the same side of that bracket as with robert and ruchman Garcia is minus 144 and arosa rena is plus 188 Now I've thought maybe that Garcia when I looked at his weight could be a bit of a concern because he's a 205 But ruch rena is 185 Garcia does have the edge well in flight ball rates barrel rates launch angle and then exit Vilo pretty similar For those two guys. So you're getting Garcia minus 144 I don't think that's a bad number by any means puts implied odds to Bipola 60 percent I think that's pretty fair based on the factors that are in play here because he is 20 pounds heavier than arosa rena and does have the edge elsewhere as well So to me I think if I'm looking at a first round matchup that I'd actually want to bet The one I am most inclined to take would be Garcia minus 140 for taking on arosa rena So I'll put him in the second round in my head again And I think that the minus 144 and Garcia is actually a decent first round bet for the derby Looking at the other half of the bracket We got the rematch from last year Pete Alonso taking on Julio Rodriguez Rodriguez knocking out Alonso now They get to go head to head once again Alonso is minus 170 Rodriguez is plus 138 in this market and I Think the last year was not a huge surprise because Rodriguez has prodigious power and you look at his exit Vilo 92.8 miles per hour this year that is a massive number It is higher than what Alonso has as well But the weight favors Alonso although Rodriguez is pretty high in that regard as well Which is a good thing for him fly ball rate favors Alonso barrel rate favors Alonso launch angle favors Alonso We haven't seen Rodriguez putting the ball in the air a ton so far this year And I think it I think that does still matter to an extent even if it's not as big of a factor as it was Back in the day. So to me I might not feel good enough to bet Alonso minus 170 But I think it's pretty close and I do feel good about putting in it into the second round I would say this is a pretty concerning matchup for Alonso for sure because it's Rodriguez But it's not concerning enough where I'm truly truly digging Alonso when it comes to the outright market Looking at the home run derby winner market, but it is a factor to consider I think that Alonso will advance here into the second round The winner that will face the winner to Mookie Betts and Vladimir Guerrero junior This is a massive weight discrepancy in this one Betts listed at 180 Guerrero listed at 245 So that's a huge red flag for Mookie there I will say though that Betts kind of from a data perspective Hangs everywhere else because his fly ball rate is 49% whereas Guerrero's is 33% Barrel rate pretty similar between the two guys Launch angle nineteen point seven percent for Betts nine point one percent for Vlad. Now in Vlad's defense He crushes the ball when it's a line drive And if he gives a little bit more lift as we saw back in 2019, he can go bananas. So I Don't want to overweigh this and suddenly be like oh, maybe Betts is an underdog here plus 172 I think that the launching or the exit velocity does matter for Vlad The fact that he can actually crush a ball matters And I think that's enough where I'm not gonna take Betts at plus 172 I would say though if you're looking for a first-run upset Betts may be the guy best position to do so because of the launch angle because of the flat ball rates Because he's a very good overall hitter. I can't get there myself at plus 172 because I am concerned about The weight discrepancy between these two guys Mookie is a phenomenal athlete But at some point that format is pretty pretty tough and it will wear on you So I think there are some upset potential here with Betts at plus 172 I will not take that myself, but I do think it's worth noting that it's a bit of a concern for Guerrero Let's put Vlad in the second round though Let's just assume that he does get past Betts and is facing Alonso in the second rounds We turn our focus towards the outright market instead because these two guys are the two favorites of plus 324 Alonso plus 350 for Guerrero Once we get there, that's where the red flags around Guerrero become a bigger concern. I think that again He's a good option overall But when we're facing Pete Alonso in the second round we can be more nitpicky Alonso has the has a similar way to Guerrero so no difference there much bigger fly ball rate for Alonso and The barrel rate is also higher for him in large part because he puts the ball in the air more often You can't barrel it if it's on the ground So I would say in round two. That's where the concerns around Guerrero becoming bigger That's why I can't get to Guerrero even though he is plus 350 so a bit longer than Alonso's odds at plus 320 I think the other takeaway from this is that this half of the bracket is brutal because Betts is a phenomenal player very good, and you've got Three of the four heaviest batters in this field all in the bottom half of the bracket so that could make you a bit wary of Alonso Guerrero in this half into Rodriguez as well Because the path is going to be so tough for them to get to the final the counterpoint That would be that whoever from this side of the bracket makes it to the final I think would be the favorites unless it's a less as best then maybe not then but if it's anyone else I'd say they'd probably be the favorite so they might want just just beating up on each other which is a Something that definitely could happen And that's why it's hard to be super enthusiastic about the shorter Let's take a look back to the top half that was robert's taking on at least Garcia in the second round for us Wait does favor robert plus he's a 220 Garcia of 205 Fly ball rate favors Garcia launch angle favors Garcia or sorry barrel rate favors Garcia launch angle favors robert's and Exit below favors Garcia as well Given that robert is not a whole lot heavier than Garcia. It's 15 pounds difference I don't feel confident in saying that robert should be four to one whereas Garcia is seven to one I think that matchup will be pretty even and again, I know that Part of that's because robert is more likely to advance in the first round than Garcia is but in the second round I could see that being a pretty competitive matchup. So I Think that if I'm looking for a longer shot Garcia is probably the one guy I consider because the top half of the bracket has an easier path in my eyes to get to the final and He also is somebody does great out decently well beyond the weight being a bit lower. I think it's 205 It's not as low as a roce arena in bets at least even though it's not quite where you'd want to be So I think if I'm looking for a longer shot, I would look at Garcia at seven to one With that all said I do feel like if I'm making a bet in the outright market It would be on the favorite Peter Lonzo at plus 320 again. The weight is there 245 We want those big guys. He checks that box puts the ball in the air a ton He is a massive barrel guy right handed batter, which is great Again, rutchman to be in the loan exception in that regard and we've seen him do it twice before He's won this event twice already Which means he knows that the format works in this exact same format He has thrived in that format and taking down a lot of these same guys previously outside of Rodriguez So if I'm betting the outright market, I think that a Lonzo at plus 320 would be the way to go It is a difficult path for sure to get from facing Rodriguez in the first round to all the way to the final and He'll face a tough second round matchup as well But I do feel like if he gets the final he'd be the pretty heavy favorite over everybody in the top half of the bracket So to me if I am betting the outright market give me Peter Lonzo plus 320 Again with the massive caveat being I don't have a model for this. I don't know if this is Correct. We're just looking for trends looking for data We can identify that puts in the right path towards identifying who win this derby that could lead us down the wrong path We want to keep that in mind for sure, but I think I think we're feeling pretty good about this And we'll see how it goes out But again the two bets considering most Lonzo plus 320 to win it all and then at least Garcia to win his first round Matchup minus 144 against Randy a rose Serena. That's gonna do it for today here on covering the spread We are back once again tomorrow Brandon can do it was gonna swing by we're gonna talk some golf with Brandon as always Getting more back into our regular schedule and funds shows planned later on this week as well As we get it set up for the second half of the MLB season Do not forget to subscribe to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast If you like what you hear leave us a five star rating enough a podcast or Spotify and also check us out once again over on the Fandal YouTube page and On Fandal TV plus if you've got any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I am SA NNES You can also follow the Fandal podcast network at Fandal podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your bets across the home run derby. Enjoy the action for tonight Have fun. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandal podcast network