 Hi there, I'm Anthony Chung and I'm the head of market analysis here at Amplify Trading. Every weekday morning I'll deliver a fundamental rundown ahead of the European Open, but if you subscribe to the channel, you'll also get content from the rest of the team. So, let's begin. Okay, very good morning to you. Hope you're doing well and had a good weekend. It's Monday the 5th of October. As you can see, just starting with the charts here to give you a reflection of the opening sentiment to get the week underway and generally has been a positive Asia-Pacific session. A little bit of a reaction there in fairly light volumes overall. Remember China is out all week at the moment for the autumn festival and traders generally reacting to the possibility that President Trump may be able to leave hospital as soon as today. And that comes after I'll update you with some conflicting headlines about the state of his health at the moment. But overall that scene is a fairly positive signal, but I'll say for now that does mean I would say that the benchmark is now set that more markets will expect that he's going to leave hospital today. That's ultimately the risk that gets run with making those types of comments. And that definitely is reflected in price overnight. Generally equity futures moved a little higher. So if he doesn't come out tonight, you could see a negative reaction here in markets if that doesn't materialize. Otherwise, going to get you up to speed on the look ahead for the week. But before I do go through all of that news flow and we look at the calendar and what's to be expected going forward, a quick look otherwise in other asset classes, then we'll have a look at the S&P. It's quite a nice narrative to where we are at the moment generally in terms of things like the stimulus talks as well in America. But in the FX markets, the dollar index a little bit softer, but has just started to rise ever so slightly as Europe started to come into the market. It's just gone through 7 a.m. here now in London. And so cable and EUR a dollar, slight divergence here. Cable is a slight negative down seven pips. You can see here in the center on the top, whereas EUR is up about 14, albeit just ticking a little lower as I speak. The one thing is from a very top level for Sterling, although Brexit talks are now going into this more intensive period. The one thing is though from a Brexit point of view, it might be positive from a COVID point of view. Things are certainly looking a little bit more negative. Technical adjustments to a supposed error in their calculations have seen COVID cases shoot higher, pretty much double, if not tripling over the data we've seen released over the weekend. Otherwise, elsewhere, gold just edging a little lower during the Asia-Pacific session, just finding a little bit of support here and around that initial low print that was seen going into the open on Friday, so 1895 and a half in the futures. And then elsewhere, WTI Crude trading a little higher, up around a dollar, just recovering somewhat now up to 38 bucks, but we'll have a look at some more related stories as well in a moment. But let's have a look at the S&P 500 and I'm going to remove my video feed for one second just so I can share what is then a marked up chart, something that Charles is sharing via Twitter a few times last week, but I just think it's a really nice way of just looking at how busy it's been really and seesaw the price action and a lot of it dependent on the outcome of stimulus talks in the US. And obviously we've heard and we will be hearing even more so this week, I'll show you the calendar in a moment and there is a ton of Fed speakers throughout the week, including a keynote speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell as well. And the probably likelihood is they're going to talk mostly not so much about their own policy, but about the necessity for fiscal policy. Trump has been saying the same of course over the weekend as well, saying that now is the time, everyone's got to come together and that I think markets will still remain incredibly sensitive to and on that point then, let me just get you up to speed and what's happened with the fiscal talks, Pelosi, the House Speaker said on Sunday that progress was being made on a coronavirus relief legislation. So definitely for sure they are still in dialogue. I think Stephen Mnuchin, Treasury Secretary and Pelosi's met pretty much or spoke at least nearly every day last week. And so whether or not then that something more conclusive and further compromises can be made of course, the House passing that 2.2 trillion plan, however failing to appease the Senate at this point. I think a lot of that then direction in the short term will be contingent on that as well as obviously further indications on Trump's health. This red line here, this kind of rectangle is what I had colored all the way from last week and you can see it has been a bit of a reference point really for market direction in the S&P and it really was initiated from here the aftermath of the round one of the US presidential debate and that selloff that we saw ensuing after that in the overnight session. There is another presidential debate this week but it is the Vice Presidents actually this time round and so following that contentious first debate is going to be Pence and Senator Kamala Harris that will be going at it in terms of London time that's not going to happen again until the same 2am kind of Thursday morning so really Thursday's European Open we'll see the tangible outcome of that. Here you can see had a bit of a test in the overnight Asia Pacific session down at that same level. We're just having another look at it here now so seemingly just a bit of selling pressure coming as Europe steps into the market. Any breakdown of this price probably be just looking for that initial low point that was seen at the opening of electronic trade that were coming down at 33, 49 and a half so you can see the positive push that we had in the overnight Asia Pacific session. Europe a little less willing to buy into this kind of Trump story at the moment about him looking to depart and move back to the White House by as soon as today but definitely a key level to keep an eye on. Alright well look let's get into this and what exactly is happening with Trump while conflicting reports over the weekend Chief of Staff Mark Meadows you might have read he said that the President's vital signs looking or have looked troubling and that was in direct contradiction to the Chief Physician Sean Connelly who said that Trump had made substantial progress and spent most of the afternoon conducting business. However Connelly then came out and I was watching the news last night and said he was just making a comment because he felt quite positive at the time but maybe it got overinterpreted so he kind of rolled it back a little bit. The President is believed to now be on a dose of two of five of the experimental antiviral drug remdesivir and is not experiencing any side effects as what's being reported and if things continue to go well as I've just mentioned he could be allowed to continue his treatment back at the White House as of Monday but there in as I said I think lies a bit of a risk if that doesn't materialize today people will probably make the assumption that his health is not yet at a good enough point for that to happen and that could be perceived as a short term negative in the intraday in terms of a sentiment perspective particularly given some of the short term positioning we've seen more positive in the overnight Asia Pacific session. Net net what I would say is that the common belief here in terms of the symptoms showing and whether or not then when you when you actually have the virus there's a critical period in the first couple of days of which then your health either becomes progressively worse or you continue to show no real deepening symptoms and we're all around that point in the next kind of two to three days so really I think markets will be particularly sensitive to updates coming out of Trump. Now Trump I think as to be expected has been doing video posts released via Twitter every day for the last two days I would expect that probably as well to continue as he wants to convey a sign of strength and he's defeating the virus and so on that political narrative if he doesn't do that now he's kind of like set the precedence and people will also start to see that as potentially reading between the lines that perhaps he's not able to do that so I think a really key two points here for this week I'd say for sentiment and this being equity direction but really across asset class will be whether Trump and then updates pertaining to his health and particularly the first half to week will be key because that's really the juncture whether or not he's going to get worse or better in terms of where he's at with the timeline so far with the virus and then to the US stimulus how do those talks go between Manchin and Pelosi having a look then this is what the latest polls look like and there's been a lot of media attention both this morning at the weekend about the latest poll from NBC Wall Street Journal no reason for that is because it had the widest lead for Biden who's seen in a long time and that's a plus 14 the average RCP poll of polls now stands at 8.1 and if actually look at what that polls what the polls look like you can see here a further divergence materializing and this really if you actually look at the poll dates is encapsulating the first round debate of which I would say Trump did something I mean it was it was a bit of a mess but Trump you could say did what he was expected to do which is try to dominate the conversation not really let Biden get a word in but Biden didn't perform as badly as some might have feared and so therefore I think it's that's what's being reflected in the polls however if you actually look at the dates of course now none of these polls really reflect this latest headline with Trump contracting COVID that these polls only go up to the 1st of October and currently it's obviously the 5th and he didn't actually break this until the end of last week and so it's going to be quite interesting over the next 48 hours or possibly three days to see these latest polls whether that rather or not they have any impact over people relaying perhaps sympathy to the president or not and whether we see some further narrowing here to go against this recent divergence going in favor of Joe Biden but as ever with polls you know we monitor them of course but you've got to take him with a pinch of salt for what you believe will be the end outcome for the election but notably it's worth a mention just giving the fact it's the wider state being in some time the other thing is as well not just Trump COVID in America definitely needs monitoring very closely and the reason for that is because actually the number of new positive daily tests has jumped from 36,947th as of September 29th to now over 51,000 as of the 3rd of October according to the COVID tracking project and this has led to these headlines here the New York City mayor on Sunday proposed reinstating the lockdown for nine neighborhoods in Brooklyn and Queens and where there have been a surge in coronavirus infection cases in the last couple of days so remember markets generally have been fairly I guess comfortable even despite then the pickups we've seen in UK mainland Europe of COVID cases that's because the US has been fairly suppressed in terms of this this current period however if these numbers start to go up that could be problematic for short-term sentiment particularly if any stimulus in the US is not force coming moving on then sticking with COVID but but coming back to the UK it's a really somewhat shocking headlines coming out of the weekend because on Sunday the number of cases in the UK jumped by 22,961 after it emerged that more than 15,000 test results had not previously been transferred onto the computer system including for contact tracers so basically a kind of I guess a technical issue leading to an under-reporting of the number of cases the Prime Minister was talking at the weekend acknowledged his government's summer plan to subsidize dining out that eat out to help out may have helped in fact spread the coronavirus and he talked about a tough winter ahead in this COVID battle definitely preparing then the British public for perhaps then a more stringent lockdown and that has been speculated in the Guardian the Guardian last night ran an exclusive report talking about a new three-tier lockdown system being planned for England which could be announced in the coming days and basically this would be the toughest measures seen so far in local lockdowns rather than national led and this would includes the likes of closure of hospitality and leisure businesses no social contact outside your household and any setting restrictions from overnight stays from home no organized non-professional sports places of worship though can remain open so definitely the way it's heading at the moment I would say this is what somewhat in there inevitable much of the UK actually now is in localized lockdown anyhow so I don't think it's too much of a of a larger leap to get to this point schools were not mentioned in the draft government source that this was because Johnson and made clear the classroom closures would be a last resort and obviously this goes with a lot of that expectation that perhaps that half-term period in the middle of the month could be when there were going to be any type of national lockdown activity that could be the time when it might happen so yeah the pound a little bit under performing but only ever so slightly and because of these kind of negatives however on the positive side one thing that has developed over the weekend is an update on Brexit and this has come after the UK and European Union agree to step up their negotiations over a post-Brexit trade accord and Johnson held a call with the European Commission president you can see here on Saturday and they both renewed their commitment to getting a deal done Johnson does not particularly wish for Brexit transition transition period to end without a new trade deal in place but has again reiterated he believes that Britain could live without such an outcome so continues to kind of keep that keep the weapon on the table as they go into somewhat these these tunnel talks as they've been referred to last week so again you've got to be mindful of just tracking those journalists probably a lot of Brexit sources and so on here say we'll be doing the rounds as we go through through the week and remember that self-imposed deadline for Boris Johnson is only roughly two weeks away now or even less than that okay a few other things to just quickly mention and this will incorporate the kind of calendar and the week ahead this is an article in the Bloomberg talking about the ECB has a messaging problem as the guard and lane dynamic models the view and the reason why people are talking about this is that this week we get the ECB minutes we do also get the FMC minutes which I'll talk about in a moment but from the FMC minutes or excuse me the ECB minutes this chart here perhaps explains a couple of things one of the things that has come to the forefront has been the strength of the euro over the last few weeks and the contradictory kind of way of tackling that here on the left and that's a bit small to see but this is when Lagarde said the ECB will carefully assess developments in the exchange rate and at the time the euro actually moved higher because of the idea that people thought that the ECB president might be a little bit more forceful with the rhetoric to try and draw bone the currency lower to stop its appreciation and Philip Lane the chief economist definitely was more so by remember that FTR called a broke and he was saying the euro strength is a real concern for him and other members of the council so yeah it's quite a lot of people interested to see then recent sources reported that splits among the governing council were already apparent at the last ECB meeting so you may see some more divergent opinions in the accounts from the September meeting when those minutes get released apparently the hawks wanted to quietly slow the pace of pep buying those pandemic emergency purchase program buying and thought the macro forecast were too pessimistic while the doves wanted stronger warning against euro strength so be really interested to see how that plays out one thing on the calendar here you'll notice that Christine Lagarde on Tuesday she'll be speaking twice so definitely worth keeping an eye out for that ahead of then the release of the ECB minutes other things then to quickly talk about other than the ECB you've also got the RBA rate meeting happening this week although according to economists the Australian Central Bank is set to hold rates and they yield target several economists leaning toward lowering of rates and target and I was reading some bank reports and they were talking more about the speculation of late about a possible rate cut from the RBA has risen in the last couple of weeks and the actual meeting then it's going to be quite important it could well be very volatile for the Aussie dollar when this comes out although on the balance economists don't expect action there has been a shift to a more dovish rhetoric and so therefore futures markets are pricing in on the balance more in favor of an actual cut materializing this week so on the balance then I'd say anything short of cutting could well see a temporary more hawkish reaction in the currency just given its positioning in the futures market in the oil market really to two stories I wanted to quickly mention one is about Libya that was obviously in focus last week given the fact that they've been increasing production so their oil output now has risen to just shy of 300,000 barrels the eastern ports of Hariga Braga and Zutina are the ones in focus following a truce in the OPEC nation civil war and the lifting of blockade on several of their energy facilities in the infrastructure separately as well Saudi Arabia's finance ministry sees oil prices at around $50 a barrel for the next three years this is according to analysis from Goldman Sachs at the weekend of the Kingdom's pre-budget statement so I thought that was just quite interesting the fact that Saudi are basing their budget on a level at 50 bucks although obviously for three-year period this will will go beyond then the COVID impacted economy we live in right now and obviously growth should return through 21 and and beyond but it's interesting to see that they see 50 as that kind of that marker to base then all other calculations from might well give you some idea about where they would want to kind of manipulate supply in order to get that type of price achieved in order to fulfill that type of ambition on their fiscal management so yeah I mean that that's pretty much all of the headline news just wanted to have a quick run through then of the actual calendar because there's a couple of different things here as far as the the landscape for the week Monday you get the various service PMIs but these are the final readings the one that's probably more interesting will be at 3 p.m. this afternoon UK time you get ISM non-manufacturing from a US data point of view there are a couple things coming out probably the main big things I'm looking out for in the US from a data side is the ISM or manufacturing today and then you've got the jobless data coming out on Thursday in your regular kind of release here we do have the FMC minutes on Wednesday evening but in quite all honesty from the from the US I'm not expecting a great deal this would be the minutes that reflect then the the introduction of average inflation targeting but I'm more interested in the speech that comes the day before that which is Feds chair Powell addressing a conference in Chicago that and if you actually look at the counter as a whole we got Fed speakers Monday you got Powell Fed speakers Tuesday more Fed speakers Wednesday more Fed speakers Thursday so you kind of get the point I would say then really the power speech is probably the most notable one because obviously this is current and it's present not backward-looking like the minutes which I don't think are really going to yield too many surprises given the fact that we have the fall summary of economic projections and press conference of power at the time in question so that's kind of the US highlights otherwise another interesting speech that is going to be happening on Wednesday is that of not Wednesday excuse me Thursday is Bank of England's governor Bailey is speaking and obviously this comes at a time where there's been a lot of a lot being said about the miscommunication somewhat about Bank of England's management of negative rates and we've had a real cross-section between Andy Haldane and Toneiro about whether or not this is a viable policy step going forward Bailey tried to address that last week but the fact that he keeps speaking in these various different speeches to me tells tells me something that you know the Bank of England still don't feel comfortable that the market has quite got the right message yet as far as negative rates of concern from my point of view my view here is that I think that the Bank of England just want to make clear to the markets that it's an option and that's an option only it's there if it should so be needed and they're trying to have it there to reassure markets at this point rather than use it immediately is my kind of my view whether or not they need to make strong hints towards it really is going to be contingent on how do these Brexit talks play out in the coming weeks how does COVID and the resulting lockdown restrictions impact the UK economy going forward these will all be key metrics then to really define whether or not the negative rate conversation heats up in the coming weeks so we will probably hear more on that over the course of the next two to three weeks for sure and that is really it in terms of all those things I wanted to cover and so overall my main summary of the week would be there's really two biggest points I think will be will require vigilance to monitor and that is Trump's health particularly in the next 48 hours is it better or worse does he indeed go back to the White House and leave hospital today will be quite key the fiscal US stimulus talks are really important and then you've got Jerome Powell speaking this week a lot of Fed rhetoric and then you've got the minutes coming out of the ECB the Fed with also the RBA rate decision okay guys that is it any questions at all feel free to just drop me a comment otherwise remember to subscribe to the channel really appreciate the growing of community of our community online and anything I could do to help I'll always do my best so with that have a good session ahead and a good week as well take care